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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 27 Mar 2020 08:56 GMT Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Applegreen FY20 impacted by COVID-19 but sufficient Company Events 27-Mar Applegreen; FY19 Results funding in place 31-Mar Keywords Studios; FY19 Results C & C Group Issuance of private placement notes further improves liquidity profile Total Produce COVID-19 update – well positioned to navigate challenges Howden Joinery Positioned to capitalise on these challenging times Supermarket Income REIT Highlighting resilience and security in the COVID crisis Flutter Entertainment Further detail on TSG deal; part of refinancing in place Irish Economic View Unemployment could rise to 18% Economic Events while GDP falls by 7.1% Ireland 27-Mar Retail Sales Feb20 Irish Banks EBF sets out its stall on bank distributions 31-Mar ILO Unemployment Rate Mar20 recommending prudence United Kingdom First Derivatives Consulting peer points to resilient model 30-Mar BoE Mortgage Approvals Feb20 M4 Money Supply Feb20 Provident Financial Covid-19 update: tightened 31-Mar GDP Q4 underwriting; final dividend suspended; FY20 guidance pulled United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Applegreen FY20 impacted by COVID-19 but sufficient funding in place Applegreen has this morning reported FY19 results with constant currency Group adj. Recommendation: Buy EBITDA (excl. IFRS 16) of €140.4m, slightly ahead of forecast (GBY €139m). This was driven Closing Price: €2.20 by the consolidation benefit of Welcome Break and 21% growth in the underlying business. The strong performance was driven by lfl profit growth of 7.4% in fuel, and 5.7% in the non- Jason Molins +353-1-641 9141 fuel parts of the business. Welcome Break performed well in the period and synergies are [email protected] expected to be c.£13m by end 2021 (assuming normal market conditions). Net Debt came in at €525.5m resulting in Group leverage of 3.7x, with stand-alone Applegreen plc leverage of 1.9x (covenant 3.0x) and Welcome Break leverage of 4.5x (covenant 6.5x). We note that Applegreen has indicated that it has sufficient funding in place to get through the period. This is based on lower revenues through to the end of May, and then a gradual easing in movement into a more normal period in Q4. At 20 March, Applegreen has total liquidity of c.€170m, comprising €119.5m of cash, €22m undrawn bank lines, €28m capex facilities with an additional €130m accordion facility. Earlier this week, Applegreen noted that it was implementing measures that would help protect profitability and cash flow. In addition to cancelling its final dividend for FY19, further details were announced today. These include: i) deferring development capex spend and reducing maintenance capex (GBY previously forecast c.€60m but estimate this could now be closer to €10-15m); ii) reduced headcount by more than 4,800 in Ireland and the UK, out of total of c.11,500; iii) deferring payroll taxes and VAT from HMRC for a minimum of 3 months; iv) benefitting from a property rates moratorium in the UK for 12 months, and 2 months in Ireland; v) started negotiations with landlords to secure rent reductions and more favourable payment terms; and vi) deferring executive director businesses and implementing a recruitment freeze. Applegreen confirmed that despite a strong start to the year it expects to see a material reduction in profitability in FY20 due to the impact from COVID-19. Importantly, Applegreen believes it has sufficient liquidity in place to navigate through the challenging period. As noted earlier this week, due to the uncertainty on the future performance, our forecasts remain under review. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 2 27 Mar. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap C & C Group Issuance of private placement notes further improves liquidity profile C&C released a brief statement this morning announcing the successful issuance of c.€140m Recommendation: Buy of Euro and Sterling new US Private placement notes. The unsecured notes, which have Closing Price: £1.78 maturities of 10 and 12 years, helps diversify the Group’s source of debt financing sources and extends their maturity out to 2032. We understand the terms and covenants (3x net Patrick Higgins +353-1-641 0403 debt / EBITDA) of the debt are in-line with existing facilities. [email protected] This is an encouraging update from C&C. While we note the Group has a term loan (€105m) due to mature in Jul-21, today’s placement increases C&C’s current total available liquidity to c. €580m and provides the Group with even further headroom to navigate its way through the current challenging period. Home… Total Produce COVID-19 update – well positioned to navigate challenges Total Produce this morning provided a COVID-19 trading update highlighting that, while too Recommendation: Buy early to predict its full impact, the company continues to trade satisfactorily although Closing Price: €0.80 earnings are now likely to be lower than in FY19. Patrick Higgins +353-1-641 0403 Total Produce plays a vital role in continuing to supply essential foodstuffs in response to the [email protected] pandemic and consequently supply chains are functioning adequately and have remained open across all key markets. While the Group has experienced reduced demand from the foodservice sector (c.20% of direct and indirect sales), demand from retailers (80%) has been robust as consumers buying patterns shift. Note, we estimate Dole retail exposure is closer to 90%. This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates The Group is in a strong financial position with a significant level of cash and substantial undrawn credit lines. In addition, it operates comfortably within its covenants. Given government guidelines, the board has also delayed its AGM until 28 August with the approval of the final dividend deferred to that date. Overall, the expected yoy decline in earnings in FY20 due to COVID-19 is unsurprising given the scale of the challenges currently faced. However, we note the Group’s high exposure to the retail sector and coupled with its strong financial position, we consider Total Produce to be well positioned to navigate its way through this challenging period. Home… Page 3 27 Mar. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Howden Joinery Positioned to capitalise on these challenging times Howden Joinery issued a trading update after the close of business yesterday and its content Recommendation: Hold throws up few surprises given releases to date. That is, trading was holding up relatively Closing Price: £5.38 well, cash returns to shareholders have been postponed and a complete focus on cashflows through cost containment to ensure liquidity. Robert Eason +353-1-641 9271 [email protected] UK depot sales increased by 1.6% in the first two periods (8 weeks - already communicated with FY19 results), which consisted of 4.3% in Period 2 (4 weeks). This was followed by a broadly flat outturn for Period 3, four weeks to March 21st. Following the government announcement on Monday, all depots were closed but with greater clarity on the guidelines a select number of depots have been re-opened to trade customers. Against that backdrop and similar to peers it is no surprise that the Board has withdrawn the payment of the final dividend (circa £55m) and postponed the share buyback. On the latter, there is still circa £100m to be bought back given the programmes announced to date. Liquidity is further enhanced by capex to be reduced to around £40m versus previous guidance of £80m. These additional measures should be benchmarked against a net cash position at end of 2019 of £267m and an undrawn borrowing facility of £140m. As we have alluded to before, given Howden’s balance sheet and the strength of the business model (as demonstrated in the GFC), we believe it is well positioned to navigate this challenging period. Indeed, we see significant opportunity for it to gain share when normality starts to return. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 4 27 Mar. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Supermarket Income REIT Highlighting resilience and security in the COVID crisis Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR:LN) issued a short statement this morning highlighting the Recommendation: Buy relative strength of its rent roll, the continued upward rent review progress and the security Closing Price: £1.00 of its dividend in light of the COVID-19 crisis that is creating challenges elsewhere in European property. Colm Lauder +353-1-641 6042 [email protected] SUPR’s update reaffirms confidence in its dividend (FY20f: 5.8p) and updates on the completion of two recent RPI-linked rent reviews (Tesco – Bristol, +2.2% for one year and Morrisons – Sheffield, +13% for five years), which added close to £400k to annual rental income. The total rent roll now stands at £28.4m and the company confirmed that it has collected 100% of the rent due on 25th of March (quarter day) from its tenants.
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