2003 Launch Forecast.Pdf

2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

About the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee The Federal Aviation Administration’s in 1985, COMSTAC is made up of senior Associate Administrator for Commercial executives from the U.S. commercial space Space Transportation (FAA/AST) licenses transportation and satellite industries, and regulates U.S. commercial space space-related state government officials, launch activity as authorized by Executive and other space professionals. Order 12465 (Commercial Expendable Launch Vehicle Activities) and 49 United The primary goals of COMSTAC are to: States Code Subtitle IX, Chapter 701 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act). § Evaluate economic, technological and AST’s mission is to license and regulate institutional issues relating to the U.S. commercial launch operations to ensure commercial space transportation indus- public health and safety and the safety of try; property, and to protect national security and foreign policy interests of the United § Provide a forum for the discussion of States. The Commercial Space Launch Act issues involving the relationship between of 1984 and the 1996 National Space Policy also direct the Federal Aviation industry and government requirements; Administration to encourage, facilitate, and and promote commercial launches. § Make recommendations to the The Commercial Space Transportation Administrator on issues and approaches Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) pro- for Federal policies and programs vides information, advice, and recommen- regarding the industry. dations to the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration within the Additional information concerning AST Department of Transportation (DOT) on and COMSTAC can be found on AST’s matters relating to the U.S. commercial web site, http://ast.faa.gov. space transportation industry. Established

Cover: Art by Phil Smith (2003)

Federal Aviation Administration and the i Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

ii Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ...... 1 Introduction ...... 3 Growth of Commercial Space Transportation ...... 3 About the COMSTAC 2003 Commercial Geosynchronous Launch Demand Model ...... 3 About the FAA NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast ...... 3 Combined Satellite and Launch Forecasts ...... 3 COMSTAC 2003 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Model ...... 7 Executive Summary ...... 7 Introduction ...... 9 Background ...... 10 Methodology ...... 10 COMSTAC Demand Projection vs. Actual Launches Realized ...... 12 Factors That Affect Launch Realization ...... 12 2002 Space Industry Performance on Launch Demand ...... 13 Projecting Actual Launches ...... 13 2003 Satellite Launch Demand Model ...... 14 Satellite Launch Mass Classes ...... 15 Commercial GSO Satellite Trends ...... 16 Industry Metrics ...... 16 Future Trends ...... 18 Comparison with Previous COMSTAC Demand Forecasts ...... 20 Launch Vehicle Demand ...... 21 Factors That May Affect Future Demand ...... 22 Summary ...... 24 Appendix A. Use of the COMSTAC GSO Launch Demand Model ...... 25 Demand Model Defined ...... 25 Appendix B. Supplemental Questionnaire ...... 26 Appendix C. Letter from the Associate Administrator ...... 28 Appendix D. Historical Launches ...... 31 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits ...... 35 Executive Summary ...... 35 Introduction ...... 36 NGSO Satellite Systems ...... 37 International Science and Other Payloads ...... 37 Digital Audio Radio Services ...... 38 Market Demand Scenarios ...... 38 Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites ...... 38 DigitalGlobe ...... 39 ImageSat International ...... 39 InfoTerra GmbH ...... 39 ORBIMAGE ...... 39 Radarsat International ...... 41 RapidEye AG ...... 41 Resource21 ...... 41 Space Imaging ...... 41 TransOrbital ...... 42 Market Demand Scenarios ...... 42

Federal Aviation Administration and the iii Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

“Little LEO” Telecommunications Systems ...... 42 Recent Developments ...... 42 Competition ...... 43 “Big LEO” and Mobile Satellite Services ...... 43 Globalstar ...... 43 ICO ...... 44 Iridium ...... 45 “Broadband LEO” Systems ...... 45 Recent Developments ...... 46 Future Markets ...... 46 Risk Factors That Affect Demand ...... 46 Methodology ...... 48 Vehicle Sizes and Orbits ...... 49 Satellite and Launch Forecast ...... 50 Baseline Scenario ...... 50 Historical NGSO Market Assessments ...... 52

iv Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

List of Figures

Figure 1. GSO Satellite and Launch Demand ...... 5 Figure 2. NGSO Satellite and Launch Demand ...... 5 Figure 3. Combined GSO and NGSO Launch Forecasts ...... 6 Figure 4. Historical Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts ...... 6 Figure 5. COMSTAC Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast ...... 8 Figure 6. COMSTAC Commercial GSO Satellite Demand Forecast ...... 14 Figure 7. COMSTAC Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand Forecast ...... 15 Figure 8. Forecast Trends in Annual GSO Satellite Mass Distribution ...... 17 Figure 9. Total C/Ku Transponders Launched and Average C/Ku Transponders per Satellite . . . . .18 Figure 10. Total Satellite Mass Launched and Average Mass per Satellite ...... 19 Figure 11. 2001 and 2002 Versus 2003 COMSTAC Mission Model Comparison ...... 20 Figure 12. 2003 COMSTAC Launch Demand Forecast ...... 22 Figure 13. GSO Satellites Launched per Year ...... 31 Figure 14. Baseline Market Scenario Satellite Forecast ...... 51 Figure 15. Baseline Market Scenario Launch Demand Forecast ...... 51 Figure 16. Comparison of Past Baseline Launch Demand Forecasts ...... 53

List of Tables

Table 1. Commercial Space Transportation Satellite and Launch Forecasts ...... 4 Table 2. Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast Data ...... 8 Table 3. Satellite Mass Classes ...... 11 Table 4. COMSTAC Commercial GSO Satellite Forecast ...... 15 Table 5. Commercial GSO Near-term Mission Model, as of May 6, 2003 ...... 16 Table 6. Forecast Trends in Satellite Mass Distribution ...... 17 Table 7. Total C/Ku Transponders Launched and Average C/Ku Transponders per Satellite ...... 18 Table 8. Total Satellite Mass Launched and Average Mass per Satellite ...... 19 Table 9. COMSTAC Launch Demand Forecast Summary ...... 22 Table 10. 2003 COMSTAC Survey Questionnaire ...... 27 Table 11. 1993–1997 COMSTAC GSO Commercial Satellites ...... 32 Table 12. 1998–2002 COMSTAC GSO Commercial Satellites ...... 33 Table 13. Commercially-competed Launches ...... 36 Table 14. Commercial Satellite Remote Sensing Systems ...... 40 Table 15. Commercial Satellite Remote Sensing Licenses ...... 40 Table 16. FCC-Licensed Little LEO Systems ...... 43 Table 17. FCC-Licensed Big LEO Systems ...... 44 Table 18. FCC-Licensed Broadband LEO Systems ...... 45 Table 19. Near-Term NGSO Satellite Manifest ...... 49 Table 20. Baseline Market Scenario Satellite and Launch Forecast ...... 50 Table 21. Distribution of Satellite Masses in Near-Term Manifest ...... 52 Table 22. Historical Commercial NGSO Activity ...... 53 Table 23. Historical NGSO Satellite and Launch Activities (1993-2002) ...... 54

Federal Aviation Administration and the v Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

vi Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

Executive Summary

The Federal Aviation Administration’s 2002–2011. The reduction is attributed to Associate Administrator for Commercial global economic conditions and declines in Space Transportation (FAA/AST) and the customer demand and financial capital for Commercial Space Transportation Advisory some satellite service sectors. Committee (COMSTAC) have prepared forecasts of global demand for commercial In the GSO market, satellite demand aver- space launch services for the period 2003 ages 23.3 satellites per year, a decrease of to 2012. 14.6 percent compared to the 2002 forecast. The resulting launch demand declined The 2003 Commercial Space an average of about two launches per year, Transportation Forecasts report includes or nine percent, compared to last year’s the following: GSO forecast. Although NGSO satellite demand has stabilized and is essentially the § The COMSTAC 2003 Commercial same as last year’s forecast of eight per Geosynchronous Orbit Launch Demand year over 10 years, corresponding launch Model, which projects demand for com- demand fell 19 percent because of an mercial satellites that operate in geosyn- increase in multiple manifesting of small chronous orbit (GSO) and the resulting satellites. COMSTAC and FAA project an average annual demand as follows: launch demand to geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO); and § 18.6 launches of medium-to-heavy § The FAA’s 2003 Commercial Space launch vehicles to GSO; Transportation Forecast for Non- § 2.2 launches of medium-to-heavy launch Geosynchronous Orbits, which projects vehicles to NGSO; and commercial launch demand for satellites in non-geosynchronous orbits (NGSO), § 2.9 launches of small vehicles to NGSO. such as low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), elliptical orbit (ELI), Commercial launch demand is calculated and external (EXT) orbit. by determining the number of primary payloads that are open to internationally com- Together, the COMSTAC and FAA fore- peted launch services procurement and by casts project that an average of nearly 24 estimating how many of those will ride as commercial space launches worldwide will single-, dual-, or multiple-manifested pay- occur annually from 2003–2012. The com- loads to determine the number of launches bined forecasts are down 11.5 percent from in the marketplace. those of last year, which projected an average of about 27 launches per year from

Federal Aviation Administration and the 1 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

2 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

Introduction

Each year, the Federal Aviation Admini- About the COMSTAC 2003 stration’s Associate Administrator for Commercial Geosynchronous Commercial Space Transportation Launch Demand Model (FAA/AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee At the request of FAA/AST, COMSTAC (COMSTAC) prepare forecasts of global (which is comprised of representatives demand for commercial space launch from the U.S. launch and satellite industry) services. The jointly published 2003 annually produces a model that forecasts Commercial Space Transportation worldwide demand for commercial launch- Forecasts report covers the period from es of spacecraft that operate in GSO. First 2003 to 2012 and includes the following: compiled in 1993, the model is prepared using plans and projections supplied by § The COMSTAC 2003 Commercial U.S. and international commercial satellite Geosynchronous Orbit Launch Demand and launch companies. Projected payload Model, which projects demand for com- and launch demand is limited to those mercial satellites that operate in geosyn- spacecraft and launches that are open to chronous orbit (GSO) and the resulting internationally competed launch services launch demand to geosynchronous trans- procurements. Since 1998, the model has also included a projection of launch vehicle fer orbit (GTO); and demand, which is derived from the payload demand and takes into account dual mani- § The FAA/AST’s 2003 Commercial Space festing of satellites on some launch vehi- Transportation Forecast for Non- cles. Geosynchronous Orbits, which projects commercial launch demand for all space About the FAA NGSO Commercial systems in non-geosynchronous orbits Space Transportation Forecast (NGSO), such as low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), elliptical Since 1994, FAA/AST has compiled an orbit (ELI), and external (EXT) orbit. assessment of demand for commercial launch services to NGSO (i.e., those orbits Growth of Commercial Space not covered by the COMSTAC GSO fore- Transportation cast). The NGSO forecast is based on a worldwide satellite assessment of science, Prior to the 1980s, the government was remote sensing, telecommunications, and responsible for launching payloads to Earth other spacecraft using commercial launch orbit. Since then, commercial launch activi- services. It includes a baseline model for ty has steadily increased. From 1997–2001, deployment of NGSO satellites that are commercial launches accounted for an considered the most likely to launch and average of about 42 percent of worldwide an estimate of launch demand based on launches. During 2002, 24 out of 65 world- a review of multiple manifesting. wide launches were commercial, accounting for 37 percent of global launch activity. Combined Satellite and Launch Forecasts The commercial launch market is directly affected by activity in the satellite market, This year’s COMSTAC GSO and ranging from global finance and customer FAA/AST NGSO combined forecasts con- demand to satellite lifespan and industry tain 313 satellites that are expected to be consolidations. commercially launched between 2003 and

Federal Aviation Administration and the 3 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

2012, as shown in Figures 1, 2, and 3. This forecast. The number of NGSO satellites is an 11 percent reduction in the total num- averages eight per year, virtually the same ber of satellites included in last year’s 10- as from the 2002 forecast, which estimated year forecast. After calculating the number 7.9 per year. The peak year in the NGSO of satellites that could be launched two or forecast is 2006 with 15 satellites, while more at a time on a single launch vehicle, the low year is 2010 with five. All of the a total demand of 237 commercial launches satellites in the GSO forecast are for to GSO and NGSO destinations is forecast telecommunications services, in contrast through 2012, as shown in Table 1 and to the NGSO forecast where all are science Figures 3 and 4. The forecast for launch and remote sensing satellites. demand is an average of nearly 24 launches per year, a decrease of 11.5 percent com- GSO launch demand averages 18.6 launch- pared to last year’s forecast. es per year, a decrease of about two launches per year compared to last year’s The projected satellite demand for GSO forecast of an average of 20.5 launches. is significantly greater than NGSO for the Annual launch demand for NGSO consists third year in a row. There are 233 GSO of 2.2 launches for medium-to-heavy satellites in the 10-year forecast, compared launch vehicles and 2.9 launches of small with 80 in NGSO. The GSO forecast con- launch vehicles, for an average total of 5.1 tains a market demand of 23.3 satellites per launches. This total is down about 19 per- year, with a high of 27 and a low of 18. cent compared to the 2002 forecast average This is a decrease of an average of four of 6.3 launches per year. Figure 4 shows satellites per year compared last year’s historical forecasts from 1998–2003.

Table 1. Commercial Space Transportation Satellite and Launch Forecasts 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Average Satellites GSO Forecast (COMSTAC) 22 18 18 22 24 25 26 27 25 26 233 23.3 NGSO Forecast (FAA) 10 7 8 15 7 7 7 5 6 8 80 8 Total Satellites 32 25 26 37 31 32 33 32 31 34 313 31.3 Launch Demand GSO Medium-to-Heavy 19 16 14 17 19 20 21 21 19 20 186 18.6 NGSO Medium-to-Heavy 2 2 3 5 2 2 1 1 1 3 22 2.2 NGSO Small 5 4 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 29 2.9 Total Launches 26 22 19 25 24 24 25 25 22 25 237 23.7

4 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

Figure 1. GSO Satellite and Launch Demand 35 Historical Forecast

30 GSO Satellites Actual GSO Satellite Forecast

15 Number per Year

GSO Launch Actual GSO Launch Forecast

0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Figure 2. NGSO Satellite and Launch Demand 90 Historical Forecast

80 NGSO Satellites Actual

40 Number per Year

30 NGSO Medium-to- Heavy Launch NGSO Satellite Forecast Actual 20 NGSO Medium-to-Heavy Launch Forecast 10 NGSO Small Launch Actual 0 NGSO Small Launch Forecast 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

5 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

Figure 3. Combined GSO and NGSO Launch Forecasts

45 Historical Forecast

30 NGSO Launch Actual

2003 NGSO Launch Forecast

Launches 20

10 GSO Launch Actual 2003 GSO Launch Forecast

0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Figure 4. Historical Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

100 Historical Forecast

1998 Forecast 75

50 1999 Forecast 2000 Forecast Launches 2001 Forecast 2002 Forecast 25

GSO + NGSO Launch Actual 2003 GSO + NGSO Launch Forecast

0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year

6 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

COMSTAC 2003 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Model

Executive Summary for 2003 through 2005, shows demand for 22 satellites to be launched in 2003, 18 in This report was compiled by the Commer- 2004, and 18 in 2005. The average annual cial Space Transportation Advisory COMSTAC demand forecasts published in Committee (COMSTAC) for the Federal the 2001 and 2002 reports were 30.5 and Aviation Administration’s Associate 27.3 satellites per year, respectively, over Administrator for Commercial Space the 10-year forecast period. This year’s Transportation (FAA/AST). The 2003 mission model predicts an average demand Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) of 23.3 satellites to be launched per year Launch Demand Model is the eleventh over the period from 2003 through 2012, annual forecast of the worldwide demand a decrease of approximately 15 percent for commercial GSO launches as seen by from the demand forecast of 27.3 satellites the U.S. commercial space industry. It is per year forecast in the 2002 report. intended to assist FAA/AST in its efforts to Several factors are impacting the demand foster a healthy commercial space launch for commercial GSO satellites, including capability in the United States. global economic conditions, operator strategies, and availability of financing for The commercial mission model is updated satellite projects. The influence of these annually, and is prepared from the inputs factors is addressed in more detail later in of commercial companies across the satel- this report. lite and launch industries. In this report COMSTAC produces a satellite and launch The number of satellites launched is not demand forecast. One key content change the only relevant measure of activity in the has been introduced this year. The interpre- commercial space industry. A new analysis tation of the historical difference between of the number of transponders launched demand forecasts and the actual number and the mass of satellites launched over of satellites launched that was applied to time included in this year’s report shows the first year of the forecast in the 2002 that although the number of satellites report has been expanded to each of the launched in 2002 and the number of satel- first three years of the forecast. This lites forecasted for 2003 and 2004 are change is expected to provide a more use- below the industry peak in 1997, the mass ful report in that the impacts of such events of the satellites and the number of tran- as launch failures, launch delays and satel- sponders launched and projected in this lite delays are taken into consideration. period approaches and in some cases COMSTAC has also reordered some seg- exceeds the 1997 levels. ments of the report to better explain these effects. It is important to distinguish between forecasted demand and the actual number of Satellite demand is derived by forecasting satellites expected to be launched (see the number of satellites to be placed in Appendix A, Use of the COMSTAC GSO GSO that are open to internationally com- Launch Demand Model). Satellite projects, peted launch service procurements. To like many high technology projects, are determine the number of possible launches subject to schedule slips, which tend to in a year, satellite demand is adjusted by make the forecasted demand an upper limit the number of satellites projected to be of the number of satellites that might actu- launched in a dual-launch configuration. ally be launched.

The near-term forecast, which is based on In 2002, 22 commercial GSO satellites existing and anticipated satellite programs were launched, an increase of 57 percent

Federal Aviation Administration and the 7 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast over the 2001 total of 14 satellites The COMSTAC GSO Launch Demand launched. The 2002 commercial model Model is calculated to project the number projected a demand of 32 satellites in of satellites to be launched over the fore- 2002, with an expected actual launch real- cast period. It is important to note that ization of between 22 and 27 satellites. the number of satellites launched may be Eight of the 10 satellites that were included greater than the number of launches con- in the forecasted demand for 2002 that did ducted in any given period. This is because not launch in 2002 are expected to launch some launch vehicles are capable of “dual- in 2003 and are included in this year’s manifesting,” meaning that two satellites near-term forecast. are flown on a single launch. This report provides an estimate of the number of dual- Over the 10 years that this report has been published, forecasted demand for the first manifested launches in each year and year of the forecast has consistently shows how that affects the number of exceeded the actual number of satellites projected launches. launched in that year. Using this historical variance as an indicator suggests that the Figure 5 shows the graphical representation 2003 demand of 22 satellites will be dis- of the COMSTAC Demand Forecast in counted to an actual number of satellites terms of number of satellites and launches launched of somewhere between 13 and expected. The near-term launch demand 19. The variance between that forecasted forecast equates to 19 launches for 2003, demand versus the actual number of satel- 16 launches for 2004, and 14 launches for lites launched will be discussed in more 2005. detail.

Figure 5. COMSTAC Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast

10 2003 Satellite Demand Forecast 5 2003 Launch Demand Forecast Number of Satellites/Launches 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Table 2. Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast Data

Average 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total 2003 to 2012

Satellite Demand 22 18 18 22 24 25 26 27 25 26 233 23.3 Dual Launch Forecast 3 2 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 47 4.7 Launch Demand Forecast 19 16 14 17 19 20 21 21 19 20 186 18.6

8 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

Introduction of transponders per satellite from 1993 through 2004. The Federal Aviation Administration’s Associate Administrator for Commercial In October 2002, the FAA/AST asked the Space Transportation (FAA/AST) of the Technology and Innovation Working Group U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) (Working Group) to examine the forecast endeavors to foster a healthy commercial methodology and report structure to ensure space launch capability in the United that the results provided the best available States. The DOT feels that it is important representation of demand for launch servic- to obtain the commercial space industry’s es, and that the report provided adequate view of future space launch requirements guidance to the reader. To ensure that and has therefore requested that its industry these goals are met, the Working Group advisory group, the Commercial Space undertook two key actions in updating the Transportation Advisory Committee 2003 report. First, the “realization factor” (COMSTAC), prepare a commercial satel- that was first applied in the 2002 report lite launch demand mission model and to the first year of the forecast to show update it annually. expected actual launches has been expanded to the first three years of the forecast. This report presents the 2003 update of The intent of this change is to provide the the worldwide commercial geosynchronous reader not only with a projection of near- orbit (GSO) satellite mission model for the term demand, but also with an estimate period 2003 through 2012. It is based on of near-term actual satellites launched. market forecasts obtained in early 2003 Second, the methodology section has been from major satellite manufacturers, satellite enhanced and other segments of the report service providers, and launch service reorganized to provide the reader with an providers worldwide. improved description of the process used in calculating the demand forecast, the dif- It should be emphasized that this is not a ference between demand and actual satel- forecast of actual launches for any given lites launched, and how best to apply the year. It is a forecast of the demand for results discussed in the report. launches, i.e., the number of launches In this year’s report, the Working Group needed to fulfill the projected delivery of has re-introduced a list of historical com- satellite orders in a given year. The num- mercial GSO launches from 1993–2002 ber of actual launches realized for that year for the convenience of the reader in depends on other factors such as satellite Appendix D. In completing this table, the delivery, launch failures, etc. A more thor- Working Group has corrected a few minor ough explanation of this difference and the inconsistencies that appeared in reports factors that potentially affect the realization from previous years. Most notable among of actual launches for a given year is these corrections is the count of historical included in the “Methodology” section launches that appears later in Figure 7 and of this report. Figure 12, and the count of dual-manifested launches that appears in Figure 12. Also included in the report is a discussion These corrections do not introduce any of the factors that could affect future substantial changes to the report; rather, the launch demand and of trends in the com- changes merely standardize the accounting mercial satellite industry. In a new addi- of dual-manifested launches. The reader tion to the analysis, the report examines should also note that the classification of data on the number of transponders per satellites into mass class categories will satellite and the mass of commercial GSO appear slightly different than in previous satellites over time. This analysis shows years, as the mass class categories were growth in satellite mass and the number updated in the 2002 report.

Federal Aviation Administration and the 9 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

Background able commercial GSO payloads per year for the period 2003–2012). COMSTAC prepared the first commercial mission model in April 1993 as part of a Addressable payloads in this context are report on commercial space launch systems satellites that are open for internationally requirements. Each year since 1993, COM- competitive launch service procurement. STAC has issued an updated model. The Not included in this forecast are those process has been continuously refined and satellites that are captive to national flag industry participation has broadened to pro- launch service providers (i.e., USAF or vide the most realistic portrayal of space NASA satellites, or similar European, launch demand possible. Over the years, Russian, Japanese, Chinese, or Indian gov- the COMSTAC mission model has been ernment satellites that are captive to their well received by industry, government own launch providers). agencies and international organizations. Note that the number of projected launches The first report in 1993 was developed by per year is a subset of this satellite demand the major launch service providers in the forecast due to the potential for dual mani- United States and covered the period festing of satellites on launch vehicles. 1992–2010. The following year, the major The remainder of the commercial market, U.S. satellite manufacturers and the satel- comprised of non-geosynchronous orbit lite service providers began to contribute to (NGSO) satellites, is addressed in a sepa- the market demand database. In 1995, the rate forecast developed by FAA/AST. Working Group was formally chartered to These projections are included as a sepa- prepare the annual Commercial Payload rate report in this document. Mission Model Update. Since then, the par- Respondents were asked to segregate their ticipation in the preparation of this report forecast into satellite mass classes based on has grown. This year the committee the spacecraft’s separated mass that is to be received 28 inputs from satellite service inserted into a nominal geosynchronous providers, manufacturers, and launch serv- transfer orbit (GTO). In 2003, the Working ice providers. COMSTAC would like to Group continues to use the mass class cate- thank all of the participants in the 2003 gories as updated in the 2002 report. In mission model update. previous years, the mass class categories used were representative of clusters of Methodology launch vehicles of similar capability. These categories, however, did not always accu- With the exception of minor adjustments, rately reflect the satellite models that the Working Group’s launch demand fore- would be competed by different manufac- cast methodology has remained consistent turers for a particular procurement. The throughout the history of the forecast. As in goal of the Working Group in updating the previous years, the Working Group solicit- mass categories was to create logical cate- ed input from satellite operators, manufac- gories based on the satellite models offered turers and launch service providers via let- by manufacturers. A detailed explanation ters from the Associate Administrator for of how these categories were developed Commercial Space Transportation. can be found in the 2002 report. The Separate letters were sent to satellite spacecraft models associated with each operators (requesting a projection of their category are shown in Table 3. individual company requirements from 2003–2012) and to manufacturers and The following organizations (noted with launch service providers (requesting com- the country in which their headquarters prehensive industry forecasts of address- is located) responded with data used in

10 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast the development of this report: from the organizations marked by an asterisk (*) were used in determining § AirTV (U.S.) the demand forecast. The comprehensive § Arianespace (France) inputs provided projections of the total § Asia Satellite Telecommunications, Ltd. addressable market of customers seeking (China–Hong Kong) commercial launch services for GSO § Astrium (France) spacecraft from the years 2003 to 2012. § The Boeing Company* (U.S.) Other responses provided partial market § Broadcasting Satellite System Corp. or company-specific satellite launch (Japan) demand information. § Eurasiasat (Monaco) § EUROCKOT GmbH (Germany) The Working Group used the comprehen- § JSAT Corporation (Japan) sive inputs from the U.S. respondents to § KT Corporation (South Korea) derive the average launch rate for years § Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co.* 2006 through 2012. The comprehensive (U.S.) inputs for each mass category in a given § Loral Skynet (U.S.) year are averaged. The total forecast for § Miraxis, LLC (U.S.) that year is then calculated by adding the § Mobile Broadcasting Corporation averages for each of the four mass cate- (Japan) gories. § Mobile Satellite Ventures (U.S.) § Taiwan National Space Program Office Some of the factors that were considered § SingTel Optus (Australia) by respondents in creating this forecast § Orbital Sciences Corp.* (U.S.) include: § PanAmSat (U.S.) § Satmex (Mexico) § Firm contracted missions § Shin Satellite (Thailand) § Current satellite operator planned and § SingTel (Singapore) replenishment missions § SES Global (Luxembourg) § Projection of growth in new and existing § Space Communications Corporation satellite applications (Japan) § Attrition § Star One (Brazil) § Availability of financing for commercial § Space Systems/Loral* (U.S.) space projects § Telesat Canada § Industry consolidation § Thuraya Telecommunications (U.A.E) § Competition from terrestrial systems § Regulatory environment Comprehensive mission model forecasts

Table 3. Satellite Mass Classes

GTO Launch Requirement Satellite Bus Models Below 2,200 kg (< 4,850 lbm) LM A2100A, Boeing 376, Orbital Star 2, Astrium ES 2000, Alcatel SB 2000 2,200- 4,200 kg (4,850 – 9,260 lbm) LM A2100, Boeing 601/601HP, Loral 1300, Astrium ES2000+, Alcatel SB 3000A/B/B2 4,200 – 5,400 kg (9,260 – 11,905 lbm) LM A2100AX, Boeing 601HP/702, Loral 1300, Alcatel SB 3000B3 Above 5,400 kg (> 11,905 lbm) LM A2100AXX, Boeing 702/GEM, Loral 1300, Astrium ES 3000, Alcatel SB 4000

Federal Aviation Administration and the 11 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

There is a certain amount of difficulty and into the following year. These factors will uncertainty involved in forecasting the cause differences between the demand for commercial launch market. The satellite launches and the actual launches for that production cycle for an existing design is year. This pattern of firm schedule com- approximately two years. Orders within mitments, followed by delays, has been this two-year window are generally known. consistent over the history of the industry. Satellites in the third year and beyond become more difficult to identify by name, The 2002 report noted that an early failure as many of these satellites may be in vari- of one or more of the new launch systems ous stages of the procurement cycle. scheduled for inaugural flights in 2002 Beyond a five-year horizon, new markets (Atlas V, Delta IV, and Ariane 5 ECA) or new uses of satellite technology may would cause delays in, or migration of, emerge. The long-term growth shown scheduled launches. The December 11, in this forecast, therefore, is based on both 2002, failure of the Ariane 5 ECA has the replenishment of existing satellites and caused delays in the Ariane 5 manifest, assessments of growth in new and existing and there may be additional impacts to satellite markets. the Ariane launch schedule. In the event of other failures, expected launches in a COMSTAC Demand Projection vs. particular year are likely to be deferred Actual Launches Realized into the next year unless an alternative launch service can be arranged. These Factors That Affect Launch expected impacts are reflected in the Realization 2003 forecast, but it is difficult to predict the actual “ripple” effect of any one failure The near-term COMSTAC mission model on the realization of launch demand. (2003–2005) is a compilation of the currently manifested launches and an assess- Other factors influencing the mission ment of potential satellite programs to be model are regulatory issues, which affect assigned to launch vehicles. This forecast the launch and satellite businesses. Export reflects a consensus developed by the compliance problems, Federal Communi- Working Group based on the current mani- cations Commission (FCC) licensing fests of the launch vehicle providers and issues, and International Telecommuni- the satellite manufacturers. Since the near- cations Union (ITU) registration can slow term demand represents visibility at the down or stop progress on a program. The time of publication of this report, it does U.S. Government policy regarding satellite not account for delays in the realization of and launch vehicle export control is ham- launch demand. pering U.S. satellite suppliers and launch vehicle providers in their efforts to work Several factors related to the launch vehicle with their international customers. This and/or the satellite can affect the execution has caused both delays and cancellation of a scheduled launch. These can include of programs. launch failure, launch vehicle component problems, or manifesting issues. Satellite The customer may also face business issues including delays in obtaining financing or suppliers also may have factory, supplier, reprioritizing their business focus thereby or component issues that can delay the delaying or canceling satellite programs delivery of a spacecraft to the launch site and their launches. More than one issue or halt a launch of a vehicle that is already can affect the schedule of satellite pro- on the pad. Minor delays of these types for grams; it is not uncommon to see, for satellites scheduled for launch near the end example, a satellite delayed due to both of a calendar year can easily push launches factory and launch manifesting issues.

12 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

2002 Space Industry Performance forecast in an attempt to provide guidance on Launch Demand to the reader on the potential number of In the 2002 COMSTAC Commercial GSO actual launches. This factor was based on Demand Model, the Working Group listed the variance between forecasted demand 32 satellites that were then manifested in and actual launches for the first year of that year. Of these 32 satellites, only 22 the forecast and resulted in a probable pro- satellites were actually launched in 2002. jection of actual satellites launched of And while there was a demand for 32 satel- between 22 and 27. In 2002, 22 commer- lites to be launched as forecasted by the cial GSO satellites were launched, meaning COMSTAC Working Group, the execution that the variance in 2002 was similar to the on the manifest was impacted primarily by last five years. satellite production delays. A list of the fac- The variance between forecasted demand tors that affected the 10 satellites that did and actual launches for the first year of the not make their launch dates follows: forecast over the seven reports published § 4 satellites were delayed due to satellite from 1996 to 2002 was between 12 percent issues and 42 percent. In this year’s report, the § 4 satellites were delayed due to issues Working Group attempts to provide an related to both the satellite and the expanded look at potential actual launches launch vehicle for the first three years of the forecast. § 1 satellite was delayed due to regulatory Over the history of this report the forecast- issues (export control) ed demand in terms of both satellites and § 1 satellite was cancelled launches has almost always exceeded the actual number of satellites and launches for Projecting Actual Launches the first three years of the forecast. The As noted earlier, the three-year near-term variance in the first forecast year is shown mission model is based on input from each in the historical portion of Figure 6. Since of the satellite manufacturers and launch 1996, the variance between forecasted service providers in the United States. demand and the actual number of satellites Development of the near-term forecast esti- launched in the first three forecast years mate in this way results in a projection of has averaged 26 percent for the first year, the maximum identified demand for satel- 31 percent for the second year, and 44 per- lites to be launched each year. Identified cent for the third year. demand for any particular year is defined as the number of satellites that customers Applying this variance to this year’s 2003 desire to have launched, with no adjust- demand forecast of 22 satellites, the proba- ment for manufacturing or launch sched- ble number of satellites that will actually ules. The consensus estimate of identified be launched in 2003 would be between 13 demand for 2003 is 22 GSO payloads. and 19 (as illustrated in Figure 6). In the last two years, a substantial number of As discussed above, launch schedules can satellites have been delayed from the first be delayed by many factors. Given that year of the forecast to the following two one or more of these factors have delayed years. Because of this effect, and because missions each year that the COMSTAC the Working Group has attempted to be forecast of identified demand has been pre- as rigorous as possible in “scrubbing” the sented, it is very likely that 2003 will also near-term manifest to reflect production experience delays. In the 2002 Forecast schedules, the range of expected realization report, the Working Group applied a of actual satellite launches in the second “realization factor” to the first year of the and third years of the forecast is defined

Federal Aviation Administration and the 13 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast as a range between the historical average 2003 Satellite Launch Demand variance and the predicted demand. Using Model this methodology, the actual number of satellites launched should be between 12 Figure 7 shows the Working Group’s and 18 in 2004, and between 10 and 18 demand forecast for commercial satellite in 2005. launches to GSO for the years 2003 through 2012. Also plotted in Figure 7 is The Working Group provides this addition- the actual number of satellites launched for al guidance to the reader in this year’s each year from 1993–2002, for reference. report in order to more clearly illustrate The range of individual estimates from the the difference between launch demand and various comprehensive inputs is shown in actual launches. The risks and technologi- Table 4. COMSTAC does not present cal complexity of this industry make delays “high” or “low” cases for the demand fore- in production and launch cycles highly cast. The high and low inputs are simply likely. Presenting the demand forecast the highest and lowest of all individual results and projected realization of actual estimates provided for any one year. This launches in this report and describing in variation is shown to give the reader a detail the actual and potential impacts to sense of the range of the individual inputs. the launch schedule should provide the reader with insight to the magnitude and The near-term forecast shows 22 satellites causes of manufacturing and launch delays. to be launched in 2003, 18 in 2004, and 18 in 2005. This year’s mission model predicts Figure 6 below shows the demand forecast an average demand of 23.3 satellites to be that is produced using the methodology launched per year over the period from described. The figure indicates the differ- 2003 through 2012. The COMSTAC aver- ence between the near-term manifest and age annual demand forecasts of 2001 and the longer-term forecast, and shows the 2002 reports were 30.5 and 27.3 satellites expected launch realization as described per year, respectively. This year’s average above. forecast of 23.3 satellites per year is 15

Figure 6. COMSTAC Commercial GSO Satellite Demand Forecast

35 Near-Term Historical Manifest Long-Term Demand Forecast 30

15 Historical Satellite Demand Forecast

Number of Satellites 10 2003 Satellite = Expected Realization Demand Forecast

5 Actual Satellites Launched 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

14 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast percent lower than the average forecast of tion of the currently manifested launches 27.3 satellites per year in the 2002 report. and an assessment of satellites to be Several factors are impacting the demand assigned to launch vehicles. This mission for commercial GSO satellites, including model projection reflects a consensus economic conditions, availability of financ- developed by the Working Group. ing for satellite projects, availability of affordable insurance, and export control Satellite Launch Mass Classes regulations. The factors affecting demand are addressed in more detail on pages 22 Payloads comprising the demand forecast and 23 of this report. Note that the average are presented in four mass classes; below annual demand calculated in the 2001, 2,200 kilograms (< 4,850 pounds); 2,200 2002, and 2003 reports cover different to 4,200 kilograms (4,850 to 9,260 spans of time, but that each covers a 10- pounds); 4,200 to 5,400 kilograms (9,260 year span. The 2001 report average annual to 11,905 pounds); and above 5,400 kilo- demand is the average demand from 2001 grams (> 11,905 pounds). As described ear- to 2010, the 2002 report from 2002 to lier, these mass classes are representative 2011, and the 2003 report from 2003 to of the requirements of various satellite 2012. models. More specifically, the definition refers to the separated mass of a satellite to Table 5 shows the near term mission model a nominal geosynchronous transfer orbit. for 2003 through 2005 which is a compila-

Figure 7. COMSTAC Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand Forecast

30 Actual Near-Term Forecast Manifest 25

10 Satellites

Number of Satellites/Launches 5 Launches

0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Table 4. COMSTAC Commercial GSO Satellite Forecast

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Average High 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 2003 Satellite 22 18 18 22 24 25 26 27 25 26 233 23.3 Demand Low 16 16 16 18 18 18 18

Federal Aviation Administration and the 15 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

In the near-term forecast, the Working Commercial GSO Satellite Trends Group tried to place each satellite in the appropriate class based on what was known Industry Metrics of its mass. For the remainder of the fore- In the past, this report has analyzed specifi- cast, the total in each mass class is an aver- cally the number of satellites launched, age of the domestic comprehensive inputs the distribution of these satellites by mass for each class for each year beyond the class, and the number of launches associat- near-term forecast. ed with these satellites as metrics for the commercial space industry. This year the Figure 8 and Table 6 show the trends in Working Group has expanded its analysis annual GSO satellite mass distribution. to examine some additional industry met- Actual figures are presented for 1993 rics: the number of transponders launched through 2002, followed by the distribution per year, the average number of transpon- projected in this year’s demand forecast. ders per satellite launched, the total mass

Table 5. Commercial GSO Near-term Mission Model, as of May 6, 2003

2003 2004 2005 Total 22 18 18 Below 2,200 kg 4 4 1 (<4,850 lbm) Amos 2 – Ariane 5 AMC-10 – Atlas IIAS Galaxy IRR – Ariane 5 Bsat 2C – Ariane 5 AMC-11 – Atlas IIAS e-Bird 1 – Ariane 5 Galaxy VR – Ariane 5 Galaxy XII – Ariane 5 Telkom 2 – Ariane 5

2,200–4,200 kg 6 4 12 (4,850-9,260 lbm) AMC-9 – Proton Insat 3E – Ariane 5 Agrani 2 – Ariane 5 Asiasat 4 – Atlas III MBSat – Atlas III AMC 15 – Ariane 5 Galaxy XIII – Sea Launch Spainsat – Ariane 5 Anik F1R – Proton Hellas-sat – Atlas V XTAR EUR – TBD Arabsat 4A – TBD Insat 3A – Ariane 5 Astra 1KR – TBD Superbird 6 – Atlas IIAS Hot Bird 8 – TBD Insat 4A – Ariane 5 Insat 4B – Ariane 5 JCSat 9 – TBD Optus B1R – TBD StarOne C1 – TBD Telstar TBD – TBD

4,200–5,400 kg 8 4 2 (9,260–11,905lbm) AMC-12 – Proton AMC-13 – Ariane 5 Measat 3 – TBD APStar V – Sea Launch Amazonas – TBD Wildblue 1 – Ariane 5 EchoStar 9 – Sea Launch Eutelsat W3A – Proton Estrela do Sul – Sea XM-3 – Sea Launch Launch INTELSAT 907 – Ariane 4 Optus C1 – Ariane 5 Rainbow 1 – Atlas V Thuraya 2 – Sea Launch

Over 5,400 kg 4 6 3 (>11,905 lbm) Anik F2 – Ariane 5 Inmarsat 4 – Atlas V Inmarsat 4 – Ariane 5 DirecTV 7S – Ariane 5 NSS 8 – Sea Launch Miraxis – TBD Intelsat 10 – Proton Spaceway 1 – Sea Launch Astrolink – TBD Satmex 6 – Ariane 5 Spaceway 2 – Sea Launch Telstar 8 – Sea Launch iPSTAR – Ariane 5

16 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast of the satellites launched per year, and the 2002 that it did in 1997. Over the 10 year average mass per satellite launched per period shown the number of transponders year. carried per satellite has grown by more than 85 percent. Figure 9 and Table 7 show the number of transponders launched per year and the An analysis of the transponders carried on average number of transponders per satel- the satellites projected for launch in 2003 lite launched. The total number of tran- and 2004 indicates that growth in transpon- sponders launched shows a correlation to ders per satellite is continuing. The num- the number of satellites launched per year ber of transponders per satellite for 2002 while the average number of transponders through 2004 averages 49, while the aver- per satellite correlates with the trend to age for the years prior to 2000 is only 30. heavier higher power satellites. In 2002, the total number of transponders launched It should be noted for the purpose of this was more than 17 percent higher than in analysis a small number of satellites were 1997 even though there were 27 percent excluded because their application is sub- more satellites launched in 1997. The aver- stantially different from the standard com- age commercial GSO satellite carried mercial GSO satellite. The satellites almost 39 percent more transponders in excluded are those used primarily for Figure 8. Forecast Trends in Annual GSO Satellite Mass Distribution

30 Actual Near-Term Long-Term Demand Forecast Manifest 25 Over 5,400kg 20

15 4,200 to 5,400kg 2,200 to 4,200kg 10 Number of Satellites 5 Below 2,200kg 0

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Launch Years

Table 6. Forecast Trends in Satellite Mass Distribution

Total Avg

% of 2003 2003

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Total to to 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2012 2012

Below 2,200 kg 3 8 4 12 6 9 1 6 3 2 4 4 1 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 43 4.3 18% (<4,850 lbm) 2,200 to 4,200 kg (4,850–9,260 lbm) 7 10 14 14 22 16 16 14 6 11 6 4 12 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 68 6.8 29% 4,200 to 5,400 kg (9,260–11,905 lbm) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 9 8 4 2 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 71 7.1 30% Above 5,400 kg (>11,905 lbm) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 6 51 5.1 22%

Total 10 18 18 26 28 25 19 24 14 22 22 18 18 22 24 25 26 27 25 26 233 23.3

Federal Aviation Administration and the 17 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast mobile applications because their commu- than it was in 1997. Over the 12-year peri- nication payloads are not easily analyzed od shown the average satellite mass has in terms of typical C-band and Ku-band grown by nearly 69 percent and has transponders. Examples include Inmarsat, exceeded 4,000 kilograms. Skynet (belonging to the British Ministry of Defence), Thuraya, and XM satellites. These metrics provide insight that in determining the status of the commercial satel- Figure 10 and Table 8 show the total mass lite industry as a whole, the number of launched per year and the average mass satellites launched should be examined in per satellite launched. The total mass combination with the amount of transpon- launched per year also shows a correlation der capacity added and the mass of the to the number of satellites launched per satellites launched. The data indicate that year while the average mass per satellite the average satellite mass and the average again correlates with the trend to heavier number of transponders per satellite have higher power satellites. In 2002, the total grown steadily over the last several years. mass launched was slightly larger than was launched in 1997 even though there were Future Trends 27 percent more satellites launched in For several years this report has been 1997. The average commercial GSO satel- showing consistent growth in the mass lite was nearly 30 percent heavier in 2002 of commercial satellites. This growth has

Figure 9. Total C/Ku Transponders Launched and Average C/Ku Transponders per Satellite

1,200 60 Total Number of Transponders Average Transponders per Satellite 1,000 50

800 40

600 30

400 20 Average Transponders per Satellite Total Number of C/Ku Transponders 200 10

0 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Table 7. Total C/Ku Transponders Launched and Average C/Ku Transponders per Satellite

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Total Number of 245 455 497 551 939 668 651 717 384 1,106 898 632 Transponders Average Transponders 27 27 29 25 36 29 36 34 35 50 45 53 per Satellite

18 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast been attributed to new applications, new uncertain times the ability and willingness requirements, greater efficiency, and serv- of most commercial firms to assume risk ice providers expanding the coverage of is reduced. Larger satellites are typically their satellites. While these factors still more expensive and therefore require a exist the current forecast provides evidence longer period before this investment can that the shift to heavier satellites appears be recouped. New satellite applications to be slowing. Last year the report forecast that require higher power levels and thus that 134 satellites would be launched in the heavier satellites have been delayed due to two heaviest mass categories over the peri- concerns over the risk associated with these od 2003–2011. In this year’s forecast, that ventures. The ability to raise capital has number has dropped to 107 for the same been impacted by unsure financial markets period, a reduction of more than 20 per- and this has forced some operators to scale cent, compared with an overall forecast back capital expenditures and order smaller reduction of 15 percent. In contrast, the satellites than they might have otherwise number of satellites forecast to be launched purchased. Limitations on the insurance in the two lightest mass categories has capacity for commercial satellites are also dropped less than 7 percent, from 107 to affecting demand for larger satellites. As 100 over this period. the amount of coverage required for a single launch event nears available capacity There are several reasons for this shift, but each additional dollar of coverage costs the most prevalent reason is most likely the more on a relative basis. These factors current economic environment. During have come together to not only reduce the Figure 10. Total Satellite Mass Launched and Average Mass per Satellite

100,000 4,500 Total Mass Launched Average Mass per Satellite 90,000 4,000

80,000 3,500

70,000 3,000 60,000 2,500 50,000 2,000 40,000 1,500 30,000 Total Mass Launched (kg) 1,000 Average Mass per Satellite (kg) 20,000

10,000 500

0 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Table 8. Total Satellite Mass Launched and Average Mass per Satellite

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Total 24,910 40,689 50,502 60,695 81,373 68,015 61,295 78,784 47,329 82,880 88,925 75,660 Mass (kg)

Average Mass/Sat 2,491 2,261 2,806 2,334 2,906 2,721 3,226 3,283 3,381 3,767 3,987 4,203 (kg)

Federal Aviation Administration and the 19 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast number of satellites launched but also miti- few years. In the 2002 report, global and gate the move towards heavier satellites. regional economic conditions, and the Consequently some satellite manufacturers availability of financing were listed as two have delayed the introduction of new high- of these key factors. In this year’s survey er power heavier satellite platforms. of operators, the Working Group included a supplemental questionnaire asking satel- Comparison with Previous lite service providers’ how certain factors COMSTAC Demand Forecasts are impacting their plans to purchase and launch satellites (the full results of this The forecasts of the prior two years are questionnaire are shown in Appendix B compared to this year’s forecast in Figure of this report). The survey confirmed that 11. The 2002 and 2003 forecasts are char- operator concerns were consistent with the acterized by a near-term well and long- satellite manufacturing and launch indus- term stabilization. This effect is particularly try’s perspective, revealing that 66 percent prominent in this year’s forecast, as a low of respondents felts that regional or global number of orders of new satellites in 2002 economic conditions caused “significant” has depressed the number of launches or “some” reduction or delay in their pro- expected in 2004 and 2005. reports of the curement plans. In addition, 54 percent number of satellite orders in 2002 vary, but indicated that the availability of financing suggest that only six to seven commercial had “significant” or “some” negative GSO satellite contracts were signed.1 impact on their procurement plans.

The average satellite demand over the There seems to be a more cautious view forecast period 2003–2012 is 15 percent of proposed space-based programs due to lower than last year’s 10-year forecast financial problems of some current space- average. This year’s model has an average based businesses. New business concepts demand of 23.3 GSO satellites per year for using satellites are undergoing more finan- the period 2003–2012, with a modest cial scrutiny, which has impacted the increase in the last four years. All three launch of new ventures. Many newer proj- years’ forecasts show a general flatness ects that require some form of financing in the 2007–2012 timeframe (with some to reach the operational phase have been year-to-year variations). delayed. This has manifested itself particularly in the struggling broadband market. There are several factors that have reduced Previous forecasts have included near-term projected demand for satellites over the last and mid-term demand based on the expect- Figure 11. 2001 and 2002 Versus 2003 COMSTAC Mission Model Comparison

20 2001 Demand Forecast 2002 Demand Forecast 15 2003 Demand Forecast 10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1“Satellite Manufacturers Look Hopefully Toward 2003,” Space News, January 13, 2003; Futron Satellite Manufacturing Report, 2002 Year-End Summary.

20 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast ed deployment of several new broadband for existing geosynchronous satellites. satellite systems. Although projects that Due to deployment timing and satellite life- were suspended in 2001 such as Astrolink time designs, the expectation of required and WildBlue have been reactivated (but replacements for the 2004–2006 timeframe with a number of satellites lower than orig- is below previous expectations. The cur- inally planned), many companies continue rent generation of satellites is designed for to defer any “broadband” projects because longer on-orbit life than their predecessors. of the weak market and the lack of avail- Longer on-orbit lifetimes cause orders for able financing. replacement satellites to shift further into the future, which flattens the demand Other factors contributing to reduced curve. Increased on-orbit life reduces the demand are rooted in specific operator magnitude and increases the period of the requirements. There has also been a sub- replacement cycle for newer spacecraft. stantial shift in requirements for many of the major satellite operators. Several of Launch Vehicle Demand these operators have recently completed long-term expansion and replacement proj- Since its inception, the COMSTAC mission ects, and are now focusing on reducing risk model has provided commercial launch exposures and capital expenditures and on demand forecasts in terms of the number of GSO satellites to be launched. However, improving near-term financial results. A the number of commercial GSO launches prime example of such a shift is evident is lower than the number of satellites in the activities of PanAmSat, which in launched due to dual manifesting on launch May 2002 announced that the launch of vehicles. In the fall of 1997, the Working Galaxy IIIC (in 2002) would complete a Group decided to estimate the demand for $2 billion “fleet modernization program,” launch vehicles based on the satellite and that planned capital expenditures had launch forecast because of the dual mani- been reduced by $1 billion over the next festing of a portion of the satellites. Figure four years.2 12 presents the satellite demand forecast described earlier as well as actual values The effects of this strategy can be seen in for 1993 through 2002. the orders placed by major operators in recent years. From 1998–2001, PanAmSat To date, only Arianespace has been capable ordered 12 satellites, eight of which have of dual manifesting commercial GSO satel- already been launched.3 Another of the lites, and its highest publicly announced world’s largest satellite operators, Intelsat, launch capability is approximately six completed the deployment of seven flights per year. Historically, some portion Intelsat IX series satellites in early 2003. of Arianespace’s commercial GSO manifest Neither Intelsat nor PanAmSat placed any has been launched on a dedicated or single satellite orders in 2002, with Intelsat hav- manifest basis. Arianespace will also ing placed no orders since 2000. Also, both launch payloads other than commercial Intelsat (Intelsat 10-01) and PanAmSat GSO satellites that must fit within this (Galaxy VIIIiR) each cancelled a satellite launch capacity. order in 2002. Other launchers capable of dual manifest- Also affecting the mid-term decline in ing may become commercially available launch demand is the replacement cycle in a few years. This would increase oppor-

2PanAmSat Press Release, May 31, 2002. 3Satellites include: PanAmSat 9 (launched), Galaxy XI (launched), Galaxy XR (launched), PanAmSat 6B (launched), Galaxy IVR (launched), PanAmSat 10 (launched); Galaxy IIIC (launched), Galaxy VIIIiR (cancelled), Galaxy XII (launched), Galaxy VR, Galaxy 1RR, Galaxy XIII.

Federal Aviation Administration and the 21 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast tunities for customers to fly dual launches, cast are discussed in detail earlier in the and the Working Group feels that cus- report. These and other factors will affect tomers may elect to utilize dual manifest satellite demand in future years as well. services more often as these service The Working Group has identified the become proven, causing the annual number following primary issues that will impact of dual manifested satellites to increase satellite demand in the future: gradually. The predicted number of dual launches takes this into consideration, as § Economic conditions—As noted earlier well as the mass of available satellites in in the report, poor economic conditions a given year. Table 9 shows the forecasted have had a negative effect on the current number of dual launches and the total forecast. Depressed demand for some launch demand. Figure 12 depicts this satellite services and the lack of readily information and shows the historical available financing for new ventures number of single and dual launches. have reduced demand for satellites. Factors That May Affect Future Improved economic conditions could Demand increase the availability of funding for satellite projects (especially new applica- The global and industry environmental tions), but it is unlikely that the environ- factors that have affected the current fore- ment would again support the number

Figure 12. 2003 COMSTAC Launch Demand Forecast

30 Actual Near-Term Long-Term Demand Forecast Manifest 25

Single Manifest Launches 20 Dual Manifest Launches Satellites

0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Table 9. COMSTAC Launch Demand Forecast Summary

Average 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total 2003 to 2012 Satellite Demand 22 18 18 22 24 25 26 27 25 26 233 23.3 Dual Launch 3 2 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 47 4.7 Forecast Launch Demand 19 16 14 17 19 20 21 21 19 20 186 18.6 Forecast

22 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

of speculative projects proposed in the cause of a redistribution of market share late 1990s period. As noted earlier in from domestic to non-U.S. suppliers. this report, demand for Ka-band/broad- The impact is not limited to the actual band satellite applications has become capture of business, but also to delays in impaired by “time to market” concerns the initiation and execution of programs. versus terrestrial alternatives. Addition- The results from this year’s survey asso- ally, some of the initiatives as well as ciated with this report indicate that 33 future initiatives are potentially threat- percent of respondents believed that their ened by the poor results of various “ability to obtain required export licens- satellite projects. Further or sustained es” had “some” or “significant” negative poor economic conditions could produce impact on their plans to purchase a new additional negative pressures on the fore- satellite. U.S. satellite manufacturers and launch vehicle providers continue to be cast of satellite demand. The Working hampered in meeting the expectations Group reminds the reader that projec- of their international customers due to tions of future economic conditions have this environment. In 2000, one satellite been taken into account in the develop- contract was cancelled and another satel- ment of the long-term forecast presented lite was (and remains) in storage pending in this report. receipt of a license in order to deliver (APMT and Chinasat 8). In 2002, APT § Future industry consolidation— Satellite Company renegotiated the terms Consolidation among satellite operators of its contract for the APStar V satellite may also affect future demand for satel- with Loral such that Loral agreed to lites and launch services. In 2001, the additional investment in the satellite combination of SES Astra and GE in exchange for control of 50 percent of Americom into SES Global led to the the capacity. As part of this agreement, cancellation of at least one satellite that Loral and APT would select a new the new combined company found to be launch vehicle to replace the Long redundant. Many in the satellite industry March vehicle originally selected if an believe that further consolidation is like- export license could not be obtained by ly. This will potentially affect near-term September 30, 2002.4 In addition, APT demand (as any redundancies in the pro- ordered an additional satellite from a duction pipeline are eliminated), and non-U.S. supplier (Alcatel) to guard long-term demand (as consolidated com- against the possibility that APStar V panies seek efficiencies in their orbital would be delayed.5 deployments). § New satellite markets and appli- § Increased satellite lifetimes—As noted cations—Over time, new applications in last year’s report, customer preference for satellite services may be developed, for 15 years or more of usable lifetime leading to increased demand for the con- on orbit is now routine. Satellite lifetime struction and launch of GSO satellites. requirements are expected to remain at Although a prediction of new demand this level, slowing the pace of replenish- from new satellite applications is includ- ment, thereby delaying demand. ed in the development of long-term forecast, additional unpredicted new markets § Regulatory environment—Many for satellite services may emerge, driving observers cite the U.S. Government reg- increased demand for satellites and ulatory environment as the probable launches. A recent example of a new

4Loral Space and Communications Press Release, September 23, 2002. 5APT Satellite Holdings Ltd. Press Release, December 11, 2001.

Federal Aviation Administration and the 23 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

emerging application is the satellite radio launched has risen steadily during this peri- market, for which Worldspace and XM od and even surpassed the total mass Satellite Radio have launched two GSO launched in 1997. At the same time, the satellites each. number of transponders per satellite has averaged over 35 for the past five years Summary compared to under 30 for the 1993–1997 period. The average transponders per satel- This year’s COMSTAC Commercial lite increases to 49 for the 2002 through Mission Model forecast predicts a decrease 2004 period, indicating that operators con- in average annual demand for satellites tinue to seek efficiencies in deploying compared to last year’s projection. This capacity. change, from 27.3 satellites forecast to be launched per year, on average, to 23.3 is The Working Group continues to foresee a reflection of the current environment for market events that have the potential of commercial satellite systems. A shift in impacting the launch industry. The Atlas operator focus from expansion to improv- V, Delta IV, and next generation Ariane 5 ing financial results, global economic conditions, and the availability of financing for vehicles remain in the early stages of their satellite projects are among the factors that flight experience. These vehicles represent have led to this decrease in forecasted a significant increase in the industry’s demand. These factors coupled with trends capacity to launch heavy and extra heavy for longer satellite lifetimes and heavier payloads at competitive prices. Launch satellites with increased transponder capac- failures of these vehicles will likely cause ity have caused forecasted near-term substantial delays and shifts in the launch demand to return to levels experienced schedule (although not necessarily affect- in the last half of the 1990s. ing overall demand), as has already been evidenced with the failure of the first While the forecasted demand for 2003 is launch of the Ariane 5 ECA. The weak projected to be about the same as actual economic atmosphere, low availability of satellites launched for 2002, a significant financing, and the regulatory environment number of these satellites and launches appear to be the key factors affecting mar- were forecasted to have occurred last year. ket demand at this time. The forecasted demand for 2003 through 2007 averages 21 satellites per year, which These factors introduce significant near- is the same as the actual average for the term uncertainty in the market, which is period 1998–2002. manifested in the lower levels of demand anticipated for the 2004–2006 period. Although the number of satellites launched Although lower than past forecasts, this over the past five years has not reached the year’s projection indicates a stabilization peak experienced in 1997, satellites have in the longer term. grown such that the total mass of satellites

24 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

Appendix A. Use of the COMSTAC GSO Launch Demand Model

Demand Model Defined Based on the many potential delay factors The COMSTAC GSO Launch Demand that are possible, however, the Working Model is a count of actual programs or of Group participants have reached a consen- projected programs that are expected to be sus conclusion that the actual number of launched in a given year. This would be commercial GSO satellites launched in the peak load on the launch service 2003 will likely fall in the range of 13 to providers if all projected satellite launches 18. As described in the “Projecting Actual were executed. It is not a prediction of Launches” section, by examining the his- what will actually be launched in a given torical variance between prediucted year. The satellite programs and launches demand and actual launches, the Working in the demand forecast are affected by Group predicts that the actual number many factors, which may cause them to of satellites launched will be between 12 slip or be canceled. The actual launches and 18 in 2004, and between 10 and 18 conducted in a given year depend on what in 2005. factors come into play during that year. As described earlier in this report, future For example, the participants in the 2003 years of the demand forecast beyond 2005 Mission Model Update named actual satel- are calculated using the inputs from lite programs that were currently manifest- U.S. satellite manufacturers and launch ed on each of the launch providers for providers. Each company providing inputs 2003. Though 22 satellite programs were contributes their assessment of expected named for the year 2003, the industry prob- launches in future years. The demand ably will not execute all corresponding forecast for future years therefore repre- launches in this year. However, the sents the best estimate of actual launches demand on the launch industry for 2003 is based on the compiled projections of U.S. for the launch of 22 satellites (19 launches industry. after discounting for dual manifesting).

Federal Aviation Administration and the 25 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

Appendix B. Supplemental Questionnaire

As part of the 2003 survey of industry § Mobile Satellite Ventures participants, the Working Group included § PanAmSat a supplemental questionnaire for satellite § SingTel Optus service providers. The questionnaire that § Satmex follows asked service providers how cer- § Space Communications Corp. tain factors are impacting their plans to § Shin Satellite purchase and launch satellites. The § Telesat Canada Working Group felt that additional input § Thuraya Telecommunications from the companies who buy and operate commercial satellites was important given The Working group would like to offer the current environment. The Working special thanks to these 15 organizations Group received inputs from the following for providing this additional input. While 15 satellite service providers: this questionnaire is by no means a scientific instrument from which concrete con- § AirTV clusions can be reached, it does provide § Asiasat some anecdotal insight into factors that are § Broadcasting Satellite System Corp. impacting the demand for launching com- § Eurasiasat mercial GSO satellites. A summary of the § Loral Skynet results of this questionnaire is provided on § Mobile Broadcasting Corp. the following page. § Miraxis

26 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

Table 10. 2003 COMSTAC Survey Questionnaire

To what extent have your company’s plans to purchase and/or launch a geosynchronous satellite system been positively or negatively impacted by the following in the past year? Positive impacts would cause your company to purchase satellites in greater numbers or sooner than expected, while negative impact would cause your company to reduce or delay satellite purchases:

Significant Some Some Significant Negative Negative Positive Positive Impact Impact No Effect Impact Impact Regional or global economic 33% 33% 27% 7% 0% conditions

Demand for satellite services 13% 20% 33% 27% 7% Ability to compete with 0% 13% 60% 27% 0% terrestrial services

Availability of financing 27% 27% 33% 13% 0% Availability of affordable 13% 27% 53% 7% 0% insurance Consolidation of service 0% 13% 73% 13% 0% providers

Increasing satellite life times 0% 27% 67% 7% 0% Availability of satellite systems 0% 7% 67% 7% 20% that meet your requirements

Reliability of satellite systems 7% 20% 47% 20% 7% Availability of launch vehicles 0% 13% 73% 13% 0% that meet your requirements

Reliability of launch systems 0% 13% 87% 0% 0% Ability to obtain required export 20% 13% 53% 13% 0% licenses Ability to obtain required 7% 7% 73% 13% 0% operating licenses

Federal Aviation Administration and the 27 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

Appendix C. Letter from the Associate Administrator

U.S. Department Commercial Space Transportation 800 Independence Ave., S.W, Room 331 of Transportation Washington, D.C. 20591

Federal Aviation Administration

Ms./Mr. President President XYZ Space Company 1234 Street Address Anytown, State, Country 12345

Subject: Request for 2003 Launch Demand Model Input

Dear ,

The Office of the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation (AST) of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) commissions an annual update to the Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit Launch Demand Model for geosynchronous satellites. The demand model is developed for the FAA by the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC). COMSTAC is a chartered industry advisory body that provides recommendations to the FAA on issues that affect the U.S. commercial launch industry. The 2002 demand forecast can be viewed on-line at http://ast.faa.gov/rep_study/forcasts_and_reports.htm.

To support the 2003 model, our office requests comprehensive input from your company based on your forecasts of future spacecraft and launch needs. The COMSTAC Technology and Innovation Working Group will then develop the model based on your and other industry input.

Your response is needed by February 7, 2003, to ensure that the demand model update is ready for publication in May 2003. Please forward this request to the department most appropriate within your organization (e.g., market analysis, marketing, or contracts). Enclosed are input forms and instructions that will give you more detailed information on how and where to respond, as well as whom to contact. You may also contact my office with any questions or comments at your convenience.

Thank you for your support of this activity.

Sincerely,

Patricia G. Smith Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation

Enclosures: (1) 2003 Commercial GSO Mission Model Update Instructions (2) Satellite Demand Forecast by Payload Mass (3) COMSTAC 2003 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Questionnaire (4) COMSTAC Launch Demand Model Report Feedback Form

28 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

2003 Commercial GSO Mission Model Update Instructions

As with previous year efforts, the goal for the 2003 COMSTAC Geosynchronous Orbit Launch Demand Model to forecast the demand for worldwide commercial space launch requirements. This demand is based on the projected sales of geosynchronous satellites and the size, in terms of mass, of those satellites. We are requesting your assistance in this effort by filling out the attached “Satellite Demand Forecast by Payload Mass” table and two additional forms.

The forecast will be of the “addressable” commercial geosynchronous satellite launches through 2012. “Addressable” payloads in this context are those payloads that are open for internationally competitive launch service procurement. Please do not include in your forecast those payloads that are captive to national flag launch service providers (i.e., USAF or NASA satellites, or similar European, Russian, Japanese, or Chinese government satellites that are captive to their own launch providers). If possible, please identify specific satellites by name. In addition, if your forecast has changed significantly from last year, please provide a brief explanation of the changes.

A projection of the addressable payloads in the low and medium Earth orbit market (i.e., non-geosynchronous orbits) will be completed by the FAA separately.

In the third enclosure, we ask that you comment on the extent to which your company’s plans to purchase and/or launch a geosynchronous satellite system have been impacted by various market factors. The fourth enclosure provides a forum for your feedback on the usefulness of this report. COMSTAC and the FAA are very interested in understanding how your company uses the report and any suggestions for improving the final product.

Your input, along with those of other satellite services providers, satellite manufacturers, and launch vehicle suppliers will be combined to form a composite view of the demand for launch services through 2012. The individual inputs that you provide will be kept confidential by the COMSTAC Technology and Innovation Working Group; only the composite results are released. We ask you to forecast the part of the market that your company knows best. It may be a forecast of your company’s needs and/or a regional market view. The composite forecast information will be used by corporations in their planning processes and governments in the administration of international space launch policy and decisions. As such, an accurate and realistic projection is vitally important.

We are looking forward to receiving your response by February 7, 2003, in order to support our update schedule. Your responses should be sent directly to Mr. Ethan Haase at the following address:

Ethan Haase International Launch Services 1660 International Drive Suite 800 McLean, VA 22102

Phone: 571-633-7445 Fax: 571-633-7535 Email: [email protected]

If you have any questions, please contact Mr. Haase directly.

Federal Aviation Administration and the 29 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

To what extent have your company’s plans to purchase and /or launch a geosynchronous satellite system been positively or negatively impacted by the following in the past year? Positive impacts would cause your company to purchase satellites in greater numbers or sooner than expected, while negative impact would cause your company to reduce or delay satellite purchases:

Significant Some No Effect Some Significant Negative Negative Positive Positive Impact Impact Impact Impact Regional or global economic conditions

Demand for satellite services

Ability to compete with terrestrial services Availability of financing

Availability of affordable insurance Consolidation of service providers Increasing satellite life times

Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements Reliability of satellite systems Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements Reliability of launch systems

Ability to obtain required export licenses Ability to obtain required operating licenses

Additional factors which have impacted your company’s plans:

Any other comments you would like to include:

30 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

Appendix D. Historical Launches

Figure 13 plots the total number of GSO (e.g., meteorology, tracking, advance com- satellites launched during the past ten munications experiments), and approxi- years, 1993 through 2002. Shown first is mately 25 percent national telecommunica- the annual number of satellites that have tions services spacecraft (e.g., domestic TV been included in previous COMSTAC broadcasting, banking, government servic- Reports and comprise the spacecraft es’ communications). launched using commercially competed launch services (“addressable” satellites). Tables 11 and 12 presents the historical Also shown on the chart is the total number addressable commercial spacecraft of GSO satellites launched in each year, launched during the past 10 years, 1993 which includes both the addressable satel- through 2002. The chart also notes which lites and all remaining GSO spacecraft missions were flown on a dual-manifested (what COMSTAC considers to be “non- launch and the resulting total number of addressable spacecraft;” those that use launches in each year. Please note that domestic launch services or for which the spacecraft are separated into mass cate- launch services were not commercially gories as defined in the current COMSTAC competed). The non-addressable missions Report. This may result in slight differ- are comprised of approximately 50 percent ences in the categorization of spacecraft national military spacecraft (e.g., commu- compared to earlier COMSTAC publica- nications, data relay, early warning), tions. approximately 25 percent civil spacecraft

Figure 13. GSO Satellites Launched per Year

40 Total GSO Satellites 35

20 COMSTAC GSO Satellites 15 Satellites Launched 10

0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year of Launch

Federal Aviation Administration and the 31 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

32 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

Federal Aviation Administration and the 33 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

34 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits

Executive Summary § 35 launches for international science and other satellites and Each year, the Federal Aviation § 16 launches for commercial remote sens- Administration’s Associate Administrator ing satellites. for Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST) prepares an assessment of the For those 51 launches, there are a total non-geosynchronous commercial satellite of 80 satellites forecast during 2003–2012. launch market for the purpose of projecting This total is virtually unchanged from last demand for future commercial launches. year’s forecast of 79 satellites. Within the The 2003 Commercial Space Transpor- satellite demand total, the decrease in the tation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous number of telecommunications satellites Orbits projects a total of 51 launches dur- this year was offset by an increase in sci- ing the next 10 years. This is a 19 percent ence satellites scheduled for launch later in decrease in demand for commercial launch- the forecast. Many satellites in the near- es compared to last year’s forecast. term have already been assigned to a spe- The non-geosynchronous orbit (NGSO) cific launch vehicle, while others are market has shifted away from the telecom- expected to be available for launch services munications sector to a smaller market bidding on the international market. comprised of international science and Seventy percent of the satellites scheduled commercial remote sensing satellites. to launch during 2003–2006 weigh less Several of these are small payloads that than 600 kilograms (1,322 pounds). are launching in groups aboard low-priced Russian launch vehicles. As a result, while About 75 percent of the payload market is the number of satellites in the 2003 fore- comprised of international science and cast is about the same as the 2002 forecast, other satellites (such as technology demon- launch demand has decreased. strations) while the remaining 25 percent are satellites that will provide commercial In previous years, the NGSO forecast has remote sensing services. There are no presented “baseline” and “robust” market telecommunications satellites in the fore- scenarios. With the indefinite postpone- cast period for the first time since ment or cancellation of many of the pro- FAA/AST began forecasting in 1994. posed NGSO telecommunications constel- However, market conditions could change lations, the remaining market can best be and telecommunications could return to the characterized using a single forecast sce- forecast next year. nario. Therefore, this year’s report only presents a baseline scenario. During 2002, there were four commercial launches to NGSO worldwide, the same Baseline Scenario: FAA/AST is forecast- amount as in 2001. FAA/AST is estimating ing an average of 5 launches per year dur- an increase to seven commercial launches ing 2003–2012. This includes about two in 2003. The NGSO market peaked in launches per year for medium-to-heavy 1998 and 1999 when the number of com- launch vehicles and about three launches mercial launches reached 19 and 18, per year for small vehicles. respectively. Launches throughout the forecast are divid- ed into the following sectors:

Federal Aviation Administration and the 35 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

Introduction that current revenues will be sufficient to make a business case for future deploy- Following a remarkable surge of launch ments, the new owners of Iridium and activity during 1997–1999, the NGSO mar- ORBCOMM continue to operate their ket collapsed with the business failures of existing satellite constellations successful- new mobile satellite systems. These fail- ly. Globalstar also continues operations and ures were mainly attributed to significant plans to emerge from bankruptcy by the shortfalls in the number of customers need- end of 2003. Any new telecommunications ed to generate sufficient revenues to pay entrants must compete with existing sys- back initial investments. Bankruptcies of tems (both on the ground and from geosyn- Iridium, ICO Global, Globalstar, and chronous orbit, or GSO) and decreasing ORBCOMM, coupled with the end of user prices already being offered by debt- U.S. economic expansion, have caused free NGSO operating companies. many investors to lose confidence in future Considering the health of orbiting systems and their constellation lifespan, it may be low Earth orbit (LEO) telecommunications four to six years before follow-on systems ventures. Contrary to popular expectations, enter design phases leading to possible no high data-rate or “broadband” satellite replacement launches. constellations materialized. The current market is made up of international science Regardless of the difficulties experienced and commercial remote sensing satellites, by deployed NGSO systems thus far, com- with about 75 percent of the payload own- panies are still seeking financial support to ers/operators located outside the United deploy new telecommunications systems. States. The majority of payloads owned New Federal Communications Commission or operated in the United States are for (FCC) guidelines released in 2003 are commercial remote sensing. The average intended to accelerate the process for of five launches per year projected during awarding licenses for new satellite systems. 2003–2012 is higher than the one to two For example, some companies waited 10 launches per year during 1993–1996, prior years from when they first approached the to the telecommunications surge. FCC until they received a license for a 2- GHz satellite system. The goal of the new International science satellites continue to process is to award NGSO licenses in less have a steady rate of activity. The science than 270 days. On the other hand, some market is largely made up of nations with critics contend that the new FCC process, fledgling space programs without a domes- which now requires a $5- to $7.5-million tic launch provider or satellite owners seek- bond, will discourage entrepreneurs from ing lower launch prices unavailable in their developing new applications. home countries. The first two interplane- tary missions (to the Moon and Mars) for Table 13. Commercially Competed Launches which launch services were competed internationally are scheduled to launch dur- NGSO GSO Total ing 2003. Growing interest in commercial 1996 2 22 24 remote sensing capabilities from govern- 1997 13 24 37 ment, natural resources, and agricultural 1998 19 21 40 customers continues to enable the develop- 1999 18 18 36 ment of new and follow-on systems for 2000 9 20 29 remote sensing satellites. 2001 4 12 16 2002 4 20 24 Although second-generation telecommuni- 2003 est. 7 19 26 cations systems are not included in the Includes satellite missions open to international launch services procurement and other commercially sponsored satellites. Does not forecast at this time due to uncertainties include government-captured or dummy satellites launched commercially.

36 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

To assess demand for international com- research and technology demonstration mercial launch services resulting from the missions, primarily in LEO. Most of these deployment of NGSO satellites, FAA/AST missions are on modest budgets, so the compiles the Commercial Space Transpor- demand leans toward low-cost, small tation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous launch vehicles. The availability of inex- Orbits on an annual basis. The forecast pensive launches on refurbished Russian covers commercial launch demand for ballistic missiles, some capable of carrying global space systems expected to be multiple satellites, has allowed the market deployed in orbits other than GSO, includ- for international science payloads ing LEO, medium Earth orbit (MEO), to grow in recent years. In the past three elliptical orbit (ELI), and external orbit years, science or demonstration payloads (EXT). have been launched commercially for operators in Germany, Italy, Malaysia, Saudi The results of this forecast do not indicate Arabia, and Sweden. The 1994 U.S. FAA support or preference for any particu- National Space Transportation Policy gen- lar satellite system. The report represents erally restricts U.S. government payloads FAA/AST’s assessment of how many sys- from launching on non-U.S.-built vehicles, tems will actually be deployed with the so demand for these payloads is not includ- ultimate purpose of projecting future com- ed in this report. mercial space transportation demand. The report is not a projection of how many sys- International science satellites can be tems would attract enough business to classified into three groups. The first are prosper after deployment. The satellites in remote sensing satellites that are operated the forecast are (or were) open for interna- non-commercially, typically by government tional launch services procurement or were agencies. These satellites are similar to sponsored by commercial entities for com- commercial remote sensing satellites in mercial launch. terms of technology, but generally operate at lower resolutions. Also, the imagery Previous FAA/AST forecasts included products generated from these satellites a robust market scenario representing are usually offered for free or at cost. An expanded conditions for more systems example of these systems is the Disaster beyond the baseline. Because of delays Monitoring Constellation (DMC), a set of or cancellation of many of the proposed five to seven Earth observation microsatel- telecommunications systems, this year’s lites designed to take images in support of forecast does not include a robust scenario. disaster relief efforts. The DMC includes participation from space agencies in The following sections review each market Algeria, China, Thailand, Turkey, Vietnam, segment. and the United Kingdom. The first DMC satellite, AlSat-1, was launched non-com- NGSO Satellite Systems mercially in 2002; three more DMC satel- International Science and Other lites, Bilsat, BNSCSat, and Nigeriasat, are Payloads scheduled to be launched commercially on a Russian Cosmos in 2003. As more countries establish civil space science programs, the demand for commercial A second class of satellites includes space- launch services has increased since many craft designed to carry out other scientific of these nations lack domestic launch serv- work in space, ranging from specialized ices. International governments and Earth sciences work to planetary missions. research organizations typically launch Examples of these missions include the small spacecraft to conduct scientific Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions

Federal Aviation Administration and the 37 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

Transmitted from Earthquake Regions MARKET DEMAND SCENARIOS (DEMETER) mission by the French space FAA/AST projects that approximately 60 agency CNES, scheduled for launch in satellites of the international science or 2004 on a Dnepr booster; and the European other category will be launched under the Space Agency’s Mars Express orbiter and baseline scenario. These payloads will be British Beagle 2 Mars lander, which will be deployed on 35 launches, including 11 launched commercially on a Soyuz booster medium-to-heavy vehicles. This is the provided by Starsem in June 2003. largest single market sector of the baseline satellite and launch demand forecast. The third class of satellites feature spacecraft designed to perform technology Commercial Remote Sensing demonstrations. The Planetary Society, Satellites Cosmos Studios, and Russia’s Babakin Space Center are developing Cosmos 1, The remote sensing industry consists of which will be the first spacecraft to use a four parts: aerial imagery, ground systems, solar sail. The spacecraft is scheduled for value-added products (often called geo- launch in 2003 on a submarine-launched graphic information services, or GIS), and Volna booster. The Space Environment commercial satellite remote sensing— Reliability Verification Integrated System-1 a small part of the industry—addressed (SERVIS-1) satellite, built by Japan’s Insti- here. Total sales for all sectors of the U.S. tute for Unmanned Space Experiment Free remote sensing industry were estimated by Flyer, will test the ability of commercial the American Society for Photogrammetry off-the-shelf electronics and other tech- and Remote Sensing to be around $2 bil- nologies to operate in the space environ- lion in 2001. Worldwide sales of raw satel- ment. SERVIS-1 is scheduled for launch lite remote sensing imagery generated an in 2003 on a Rockot, provided by Eurockot estimated $200 million in revenues for Launch Services. 2001, with a projected revenue total approaching $550 million by 2010. DIGITAL AUDIO RADIO SERVICES Commercial remote sensing operators have Sirius Satellite Radio (formerly CD Radio) recognized higher customer demand for launched three satellites to ELI in 2000 and integrated information systems, so opera- rolled out service in 2002. Its main U.S. tors have negotiated partnerships in an rival, XM Satellite, operates two satellites effort to provide, through product cross-fer- in GSO. Strong subscriber growth in these tilization, customized GIS tools for a vari- services has generated interest in DARS in ety of applications. Because of this trend, other regions, most notably Europe. In the market is evolving to become more 2002, Global Radio, based in Luxembourg, about customized value-added services and announced that it planned to begin service less about how the images are acquired, a in Europe in 2005 using satellites in ELI. largely irrelevant issue from the customer’s However, the company filed for bankruptcy point of view. in 2003 before it started to build its system. While it is possible that future ventures Demand for commercial satellite imagery may attempt to provide DARS service in is difficult to forecast because, unlike Europe or elsewhere, no systems have been telecommunications, demand for services announced, and given the uncertainty over cannot be directly linked to the number of whether future systems would use NGSO satellites. This is due to the resale of or GSO satellites, no DARS systems are imagery, the wide variety of imagery types included in the 2003 forecast. requiring different suites of sensors, and

38 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast the difficulty in defining the market for for a Landsat Follow-On. Instead, value-added products. The following com- DigitalGlobe is studying potential markets panies are developing commercial remote and technical requirements for a commer- sensing satellites. cial high-resolution follow-on satellite to QuickBird. DIGITALGLOBE DigitalGlobe, formerly EarthWatch, was IMAGESAT INTERNATIONAL established in 1993 and was granted the ImageSat, founded as West Indian Space first National Oceanic and Atmospheric in 1997, provides commercial imagery Administration (NOAA) license (under the through its Earth Resources Observation name WorldView Imaging Corporation) in Systems (EROS) remote sensing satellite. the same year. The company contracted Headquartered in Cyprus, its three share- with Boeing for the launch of QuickBird holders are Israel Aircraft Industries, aboard a Delta 2 on October 18, 2001. Electro Optics Industries, and Core QuickBird is capable of imaging objects Software Technology. ImageSat currently 0.6 meters in size or greater, and became operates only one satellite, EROS A1, available for commercial service in early which was launched from Russia in the 2002. While DigitalGlobe has not winter of 2000. It is to be followed by announced plans for follow-on satellites, the EROS-B series, consisting of four it is assumed that a replacement for QuickBird will be launched in 2006, short- satellites, with the initial launch of EROS ly before the end of QuickBird’s design B1 expected in 2004. All the satellites have life. a standard resolution of 1.8 meters, but can be programmed to obtain images with reso- In January 2003, the National Imagery lution less than a meter. and Mapping Agency (NIMA) awarded INFOTERRA GMBH DigitalGlobe a firm, fixed-price, $96-million order and an indefinite-delivery, indef- InfoTerra GmbH, a subsidiary of Astrium, inite-quantity contract worth up to $500 recently entered the commercial satellite million to provide space imagery. The remote sensing industry with the introduc- contract enables NIMA to use commercial tion of the TerraSAR program. Deutschen satellite imagery across a broad spectrum Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR, of value-added applications. Space Imaging the German Aerospace Center) selected was also awarded a similar contract. The Astrium to jointly develop the satellite, contract is for three years and is dependent which is an X-band synthetic aperture radar on availability of funds. (SAR) observation spacecraft. DLR plans to invest $89.8 million, with Astrium In March 2002, DigitalGlobe won one of investing $24.6 million, toward the devel- two study contracts under the Landsat Data opment of the satellite. Both TerraSAR X Continuity Mission (LDCM), a program and TerraSAR L will launch on a Dnepr established by the National Aeronautics sometime in 2005. InfoTerra GmbH will and Space Administration (NASA) to iden- be responsible for commercial operations, tify and enable a commercial remote satel- while DLR will oversee science operations. lite system to operate in lieu of a government-funded Landsat-8 program. However, ORBIMAGE in March 2003, DigitalGlobe concluded ORBIMAGE, the first company to operate that the structure of the NASA contract a commercial remote sensing satellite contained too much risk and decided not (OrbView 1, launched in 1995), filed for to pursue the project any further, leaving bankruptcy in April 2002. In January Resource21 as the sole potential bidder 2003, ORBIMAGE signed a non-binding

Federal Aviation Administration and the 39 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

Table 14. Commercial Satellite Remote Sensing Systems System Operator Manufacturer Satellites Mass Highest Launch Status kg (lbm) Resolution Year (m) Operational ImageSat Israel Aircraft EROS A1 280 (617) 1.5 2000 EROS EROS A1 continues to operate. International Industries EROS B1-B4 350 (771) 1.5 2004 IKONOS 1 816 (1800) 1 1999 IKONOS 1 lost due to launch IKONOS Space Imaging Lockheed Martin IKONOS 816 (1800) 1 1999 vehicle malfunction. IKONOS IKONOS Block II TBD 0.5 2006 continues to operate. OrbView 1 74 (163) 10,000 1995 OrbViews 1 and 2 continue to Orbital Sciences OrbView 2 372 (819) 1,000 1997 OrbView ORBIMAGE operate. OrbView 4 lost due to Corp. OrbView 3 304 (670) 1 2003 launch vehicle failure. OrbView 4 368 (811) 1 2001 QuickBird 1 815 (1797) 1 2000 First QuickBird launch failed in QuickBird DigitalGlobe Ball Aerospace QuickBird 909 (2004) 0.6 2001 2000. QuickBird started QuickBird Follow-On TBA 0.5 2006 commercial operations in 2002. MacDonald, Radarsat 1 continues to operate. Dettwiler and MacDonald, Radarsat 1 2,750 (6,050) 8 1995 Radarsat 3 will launch "a few Radarsat Associates Dettwiler and Radarsat 2 2,195 (4,840) 3 2005 years after Radarsat 2" and will (Radarsat Associates Radarsat 3 TBD TBD 2007 International) work in tandem. Development and Proposed MacDonald, String of five satellites provides RapidEye RapidEye AG Dettwiler and RapidEye 1-5 380 (837) 6.5 2006 high temporal frequency and Associates redundancy. TerraSAR X will provide TerraSAR X 1,023 (2,255) commercial imagery, TerraSAR L TerraSAR InfoTerra GmbH Astrium 1 2005 TerraSAR L TBA appears largely restricted to government applications. Will proceed with program RS Resource21 Boeing RS 1 1,200 (2,646) 10 2006 regardless of LDCM status. Phase One Landsat Data Continuity Mission contract Landsat awarded to DigitalGlobe and TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD Follow On Resource21. DigitalGlobe has concluded it will not pursue LDCM. TrailBlazer will conduct remote sensing of the Moon in 1-meter TrailBlazer TransOrbital TransOrbital TrailBlazer 420 (926) 1 2003 resolution, but requires NOAA license to image the Earth from a distance.

Table 15. Commercial Satellite Remote Sensing Licenses

Licensee Date License Remarks Granted* EarthWatch 1/4/1993 Originally issued to WorldView. Space Imaging 6/17/1993 Originally issued to EOSAT. Space Imaging 4/22/1994 Originally issued to Lockheed. ORBIMAGE 5/5/1994 Originally issued to Orbital Sciences Corp. ORBIMAGE 7/1/1994 Originally issued to Orbital Sciences Corp. EarthWatch 9/2/1994 AstroVision 1/23/1995 Only license issued so far for commercial GEO system. GDE Systems Imaging 7/14/1995 Motorola 8/1/1995 Boeing Commercial Space 5/16/1996 License for Resource21 system. CTA Corporation 1/9/1997 RDL Corporation 6/16/1998 License for Radar1 system, which has since been cancelled.

STDC 3/26/1999 Acquired by ESSI, license issued for operation of NEMO system. Ball Aerospace 11/21/2000 EarthWatch 12/6/2000 Space Imaging 12/6/2000 First license issued to commercial operator for 0.5 meter resolution. EarthWatch 12/14/2000 Second license issued to commercial operator for 0.5 meter resolution. TransOrbital 3/6/2002 TransOrbital requires license from NOAA to image Earth from lunar orbit, not for imaging the Moon's surface. *Source: NOAA

40 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast agreement with an official committee of its ested in agricultural and cartographic appli- unsecured creditors and Orbital Sciences cations. The constellation of satellites was Corporation (OSC) to facilitate designed specifically to provide high tem- ORBIMAGE’s emergence from Chapter poral frequency and redundancy. Each 11. Under the agreement, ORBIMAGE RapidEye satellite will be placed into the will end its pending litigation with OSC same orbital plane, and will be supported in exchange for additional working capital. by an S-band command center and an X- However, the settlement is contingent on band downlink ground component. the successful launch of OrbView 3, sched- RapidEye and MDA signed an Agreement uled for launch on a Pegasus XL in June of Principle in September 2002 to work 2003. jointly on the project, with MDA providing the satellites, launch arrangements, and OrbView 1, launched in 1995, and ground infrastructure. MDA’s Radarsat OrbView 2, launched in 1997, continue to operate, providing images with 10-kilome- International and U.S.-based EarthSat will ter and 1.1-kilometer resolution, respective- provide much of the product development ly. OrbView 3, delayed due to technical and customer service. The satellites, each problems, will provide 1-meter resolution with a resolution of 6.5 meters, are expect- panchromatic and 4-meter resolution multi- ed to be launched together in 2006. spectral imagery. ORBIMAGE is also the exclusive U.S. distributor of worldwide RESOURCE21 imagery from the Canadian RADARSAT-2 Resource21 was established by Boeing, satellite, planned for launch in 2004. BAE Systems, Farmland, and the Institute OrbView 4 was lost due to a launch failure for Technology Development. It intends in 2001. It is unclear what ORBIMAGE to provide information services to cus- plans as a follow-on system. tomers in the agriculture, national security, and science application sectors. Like RADARSAT INTERNATIONAL DigitalGlobe, Resource21 was awarded a Radarsat International, formed in 1989 $5-million study contract under the LDCM to operate Radarsat 1, is now a subsidiary in March 2002. Resource21 has not yet of MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates announced the results of its work. (MDA). Both companies are based in Resource21 has always focused on provid- Canada. Radarsat 1, launched in 1995 ing imagery to support the agricultural aboard a Delta 2, has gathered radar data industry, so the LDCM requirements may covering most of Earth and provides radar complement the company’s business plan. imagery with resolutions between 8 and While its satellite plans apparently remain 100 meters. Radarsat 2, planned for launch in the conceptual stage, Resource21 has in 2005, will continue the mission of its announced that it will develop and launch predecessor, and may work in tandem with at least one LEO satellite with 10-meter Radarsat 3, which is currently in develop- resolution, regardless of how the LDCM ment. Despite substantial support from the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) in the program unfolds. beginning, Radarsat and its ground support SPACE IMAGING infrastructure are now operated commercially by MDA. Space Imaging, founded in 1994 and based near Denver, Colorado, provides high-reso- RAPIDEYE AG lution satellite imagery from its IKONOS satellite to government and commercial RapidEye, a commercial remote sensing customers around the globe. Launched in company based in Germany, is pursuing 1999, IKONOS is the first commercial a five-satellite system designed to provide space platform with a ground resolution imagery and services for customers inter-

Federal Aviation Administration and the 41 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast of 0.82 meters. In December 2000, Space over lunar terrain as it heads toward impact Imaging was granted a license by NOAA with the surface. TrailBlazer’s sensors authorizing the company to develop a satel- will have a resolution of about 1 meter, lite capable of generating 0.5-meter resolu- enabling it to photograph areas in great tion imagery, and in October 2002, the detail, such as historical Russian and U.S. company applied for a license to own and landing sites. operate a commercial imaging satellite that would have a ground resolution of 0.25 MARKET DEMAND SCENARIOS meters. The company’s next-generation satellite, currently referred to as Block 2, FAA/AST projects that the commercial is tentatively planned for launch in 2006. satellite remote sensing sector will yield In addition to imagery from its own about 20 payloads throughout the forecast IKONOS satellite, Space Imaging also period, with a peak in 2006 due to replace- markets and sells imagery from Landsat, ment cycles and the launch of five India’s remote sensing satellites, and RapidEye satellites. Canada’s Radarsat 1. As of mid-2003, the “Little LEO” Telecommunications company had more than 60-million square Systems kilometers of nearly cloud-free imagery in its digital archive. Through its Regional Little LEO satellite systems were dubbed Affiliate program, Space Imaging has 13 “little” by the FCC because they are at ground stations around the globe for direct comparatively lower frequencies than those IKONOS tasking. considered “Big LEO” systems. The Little LEO systems provide narrowband data NIMA awarded Space Imaging with a communications such as e-mail, two-way multi-year satellite-imagery capacity con- paging, and simple messaging using fre- tract in January 2003. Under the terms of quencies below 1 GHz. Target markets the contract, NIMA would acquire world- include automated meter reading, vehicle wide imagery from IKONOS. For the first fleet tracking and other kinds of remote three years, the contract has a minimum data monitoring. Only ORBCOMM has value of $120 million, with a five-year fully deployed its system. Little LEO sys- ceiling of $500 million. tems are listed in Table 16.

TRANSORBITAL RECENT DEVELOPMENTS TransOrbital has a unique business plan ORBCOMM is actively pursuing a follow- that will make it the first company to on constellation and could award a satellite obtain and sell lunar imagery by sending a construction contract in the first half of commercial spacecraft to orbit the Moon. 2004. The physical characteristics of the The company secured a NOAA license in satellites will depend on the vendor award- 2002 to image Earth during its mission. ed the contract. The current plan is to begin With the successful launch of its replenishment launches in 2006. As of TrailBlazer Structural Test Article in Spring 2003, the worldwide messaging sys- Winter 2002, TransOrbital is now poised to tem had approximately 50,000 subscribers launch its flagship, TrailBlazer. active on their network. The ORBCOMM constellation is comprised of 35 satellites TrailBlazer, which is planned for launch in in orbits of 825 kilometers (513 miles) in late 2003 aboard a Russian Dnepr vehicle, altitude. Founded by Orbital Sciences will provide live streaming video of the Corporation (later adding major investor Moon’s surface, pictures of Earth from Teleglobe Canada), operations began in lunar orbit, maps of the lunar surface, and, November 1998 with full commercial serv- at the conclusion of the mission, a fast pass ice available in March 2000. After shipping

42 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast over 20,000 units, ORBCOMM filed COMPETITION for U.S. Bankruptcy Court protection in Proponents believe that the data messaging September 2000. A new firm, ORBCOMM market is big enough for several providers Holdings LLC, currently operates ORB- with specialized niches and different data COMM. Most of the satellites were rates and/or real versus delay timing. launched between 1997 and 1999. Whether However, competition comes from many or not ORBCOMM will be able to fund a providers on the ground and from existing follow-on system is unclear at this time. Big LEO systems as well as GSO satellites. Other potential providers of low-data-rate “Big LEO” and Mobile Satellite satellite services have struggled to gain Services necessary funding and face FCC milestones to retain their licenses initially granted in Big LEO systems provide mobile voice 1998. These companies include Final telephony and data services in the 1–2 Analysis (the company has restructured GHz frequency range. Also known as after filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in Mobile Satellite Services (MSS), two Big September 2001), Leo One, and E-SAT LEO systems have been fully deployed to (the FCC declared its license null and date—Iridium and Globalstar. Both sys- void in April 2003). tems are fully operational, have relatively healthy satellites serving thousands of sub- Some Little LEO satellite systems are so scribers, and have a few years yet before small that they do not necessarily generate they would require replacement satellites. launch demand. One such system is being Big LEO systems are detailed in Table 17. deployed by Aprize Satellite, Inc. Two GLOBALSTAR AprizeStar (also known by its ITU registration as LatinSat) satellites weighing 10 In April 2003, U.S. bankruptcy court kilograms (22 pounds) each were launched approved the sale of Globalstar's assets to as secondary satellites on a Russian Dnepr a new company controlled by ICO Global rocket in 2002. Two additional AprizeStar Communications. ICO paid $55 million in satellites are scheduled on Dnepr in May exchange for a 54 percent majority equity 2004 and two more in October 2004. A interest of Globalstar and gains access to constellation with 48 satellites is planned more than 77,000 subscribers. Globalstar by Aprize, depending on customer demand hopes to emerge from bankruptcy by the for additional data-communication capacity end of 2003. The move gives ICO an and frequency of contact. existing system where it could enhance

Table 16. FCC-Licensed Little LEO Systems

System Operator Prime Contractor Satellites Orbit First Status Number + Mass Type Launch Spares kg (lbm) Operational ORBCOMM ORBCOMM Global LP Orbital 48 43 (95) LEO 1997 Operational with 35 satellites on orbit; FCC licensed, October 1994. Filed for bankruptcy protection in September 2000, emerged from bankruptcy protection in March 2002.

Under Development FAISat Final Analysis Final Analysis 26 + 6 151 (332) LEO TBD FCC licensed, March 1998. Two test satellites launched in 1995 and 1997. Company filed a petition for a waiver of its FCC- mandated deployment milestones in March 2002. Leo One LEO One USA Dornier 48 125 (275) LEO TBD FCC licensed, February 1998. Company filed a petition for a two- Worldwide year extension of its FCC-mandated deployment milestones in February 2002. E-Sat E-Sat, Inc. Alcatel 6 113 (250) LEO TBD FCC licensed, March 1998. Company filed a petition for a two- year extension of its FCC-mandated deployment milestones in March 2002. FCC denied petition and revoked license in April 2003.

Federal Aviation Administration and the 43 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast service by installing ground signal and capital finance conditions. ICO has repeaters (also known as ancillary terrestri- stated it continues to express commitment al component, or ATC). to proceed with its own network. A control- ling interest in Globalstar allows the com- Globalstar declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy pany to explore the voice and data market in February 2002 after $4 billion was spent further. ICO plans to offer medium-rate and customer growth did not meet expecta- wireless Internet access (up to 144 kilobits tions after operations began in September per second) in addition to voice service. 1999. Globalstar has reported three satellite This is higher than the speeds available failures (out of 48 satellites) in the opera- through Globalstar. tional constellation as of April 2002. Eight completed satellites are in ground storage. The first ICO satellite was lost in a Sea A contract to launch those satellites, if nec- Launch vehicle failure in March 2000. essary, on Delta II launch vehicles was can- Another satellite launch on an Atlas IIAS celed in Fall 2002, forcing Globalstar to in June 2001 was successful. The satellite lose its deposit. In January 2003, the FCC is operating in a circular orbit at an altitude rescinded Globalstar’s 2-GHz license for of 10,390 kilometers (6,450 miles) and has an additional follow-on constellation; how- been used to test signal quality. The com- ever, Globalstar is appealing this decision. pany’s name, ICO, is taken from the acronym for intermediate circular orbit. ICO After raising some $3.1 billion, the original Despite a favorable FCC finding in 2003 ICO filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy pro- to grant 2-GHz MSS operators’ approval tection in August 1999. In December 1999, to use an ancillary terrestrial component, it the U.S. bankruptcy court overseeing ICO’s is unclear if ICO will launch its medium- restructuring approved an additional $1.2- data-rate mobile satellite system of 10 billion investment in the company by a operational satellites and two spares. The group of investors led by Craig McCaw, a company appears to be waiting for successful wireless cellular-telephone net- improvements in customer market prices Table 17. FCC-Licensed Big LEO Systems System Operator Prime Satellites Orbit First Status Contractor Number + Mass kg (lbm) Type Launch Spares Operational Globalstar Globalstar LP Alenia Spazio 48 + 8 447 (985) LEO 1998 Constellation on-orbit and operational; FCC licensed, January 1995. Company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in February 2002; ICO acquired a majority interest in the company in April 2003. Iridium Iridium Satellite LLC Motorola 66 + 14 680 (1,500) LEO 1997 Assets acquired in December 2000 bankruptcy proceeding. Five spare satellites launched in February 2002, two additional spares launched June 2002. No additional launches of spares planned. Under Development 2.0 GHz ICO New ICO Global Boeing 10 + 2 2,744 (6,050) MEO 2000 FCC license granted July 17, 2001. Company emerged from bankruptcy Communications in May 2000 after $1.2 billion investment by Eagle River Investments, (Holdings), Inc. LLC. Company now focused on packet-switched data delivery. ICO F-2, the first satellite in system, was launched in 2001. ICO Z-1 was lost when launch vehicle failed in 2000. Proposed 2.0 GHz ECCO II Constellation TBD 46 + TBD 585 (1,290) LEO TBD FCC license granted July 17, 2001. FCC revoked license in January 2003 Communications when company failed to meet satellite construction contract milestone; company is appealing the decision. Ellipso 2G Mobile Comm. TBD 26 + TBD 1,315 (2,900) LEO & ELI TBD FCC license granted July 17, 2001. FCC revoked license in January 2003 Holdings (MCHI) when company failed to meet satellite construction contract milestone; company is appealing the decision. Globalstar GS-2 Globalstar LP TBD 64 + 4 830 (1,830) LEO1 TBD FCC license granted July 17, 2001. FCC revoked license in January 2003 when company failed to meet satellite construction contract milestone; company is appealing the decision. Iridium/Macrocell Iridium Satellite LLC TBD 96 + TBD 1,712 (3,775) LEO TBD FCC license granted July 17, 2001. Valid satellite construction contract submitted in July 2002. (1) Globalstar GS-2 also requested authority to operate 4 GEO satellites in conjunction with the LEO.

44 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast work owner. A similar group also invested renewed its contract for another year of in Teledesic. The FCC license for 2 GHz Iridium “airtime” services. The DoD con- requires the first two satellites to be tract began in 2000 as a two-year, $72-mil- launched by January 2005. There are two lion deal with three additional one-year completed satellites in storage and con- options. The original contract included struction on an additional eight is nearly unlimited minutes for up to 20,000 users. complete. DoD also agreed to indemnify Iridium from any potential future damages caused IRIDIUM by satellite reentry. In 2002, Iridium Satellite successfully “Broadband LEO” Systems launched seven spare satellites: five by Delta 2 and two by Russia’s Rockot. The While satellites do not have sufficient system could last until 2014, much longer bandwidth to service the entire broadband than initially advertised. As a result, user population, they are playing a growing Iridium Satellite may not have to begin role in the delivery of high data-rate infor- planning for a follow-on system until 2007 mation. Satellites can provide service to or 2008, assuming it could obtain funding unwired urban areas and can also reach to design, build, and launch a new system. remote customers that conventional land- In the meantime, the company could break line services may not even attempt to even during 2003 and show a profit in access. In some cases, satellites and land- 2004. Iridium Satellite purchased all the lines are complementary, using each other assets of bankrupt Iridium, LLC for $25 as conduits to reach end users. million and began operations in April 2001. Total investments into the revitalized Currently there are no NGSO systems Iridium are reportedly around $130 million. delivering broadband services. There are The current constellation consists of 80 several GSO transponders serving data satellites (14 satellites are orbiting spares). roles between gateways and internet serv- A total of 95 satellites have been launched. ice providers (ISPs) and more operators Two partially assembled satellites are avail- plan to include broadband capabilities in able for launch if needed although buyers future plans with the first of a few new, have been sought for these satellites. dedicated GSO broadband satellites scheduled to launch in 2004. Originally conceived by Motorola in 1991, Iridium’s system of 66 operational satel- High start-up costs of $4–10 billion or lites, spares, and an extensive ground net- more have slowed NGSO broadband devel- work was developed and deployed at a cost opment. Another challenge faced by NGSO around $5 billion. In December 2002, the systems (and not just broadband) is rapid Defense Information Systems Agency of change of communications technology; the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) by the time a space system is designed

Table 18. FCC-Licensed Broadband LEO Systems System Operator Prime Satellites Orbit First Status Contractor Number Mass kg (lbm) Type Launch + Spares Under Development Ka-Band Teledesic Teledesic LLC Alenia Spazio1 30 + 3 1,000 (2,205) and MEO TBD2 FCC licensed, March 1997; license amended January 3,455 (7,617) 1999 for 288-sat system; firm milestones assigned by FCC in January 2001. Application to amend system to 30 sats filed with FCC February 2002. Teledesic suspended initial satellite construction contract with Alena Spazio in September 2002.

(1) Alenia Spazio was only contracted for the first two satellites in constellation. (2) Teledesic launched the T-1 experimental satellite in February 1998.

Federal Aviation Administration and the 45 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast and orbited, it may be obsolete or the launched with or without a paying passen- consumer/business market may have shift- ger. Thus these missions did not generate ed away from it. More than 20 applica- launch demand. A viable public space trav- tions involving broadband satellites in el market may require the right space vehi- NGSO and GSO systems have been sub- cle. The next few years could see new mitted to the FCC. vehicles emerge as attempts to win the $10 million X Prize, a contest to launch a RECENT DEVELOPMENTS reusable vehicle carrying up to three pas- sengers to 100 kilometers (62 miles) alti- Teledesic announced in September 2002 tude—a suborbital trajectory—twice within that it had suspended work on satellite con- 14 days. Since this report only includes struction and had reduced its staff signifi- commercial missions to NGSO, new vehi- cantly. The company stated it could not cles associated with the X Prize would envision returns to shareholders that were likely not be included in the forecast. commensurate with the risk. Teledesic was Several other small firms are developing first formed in 1990 and went from sys- vehicles for LEO markets. At this time, the tems of 840 satellites, to 288, and then to public space travel market is still maturing 30 satellites. The company spent hundreds but could be included in future NGSO of millions of dollars on developing broad- reports. It is uncertain if other markets, band systems and retains a significant allo- such as space-based manufacturing, on- cation of spectrum. There is a September orbit resupply, or orbiting hotels, will 2004 “bring into use” deadline for its ITU emerge with associated launch demand by spectrum. 2012. Future Markets Risk Factors That Affect Demand

The sharp decline of the telecommunica- Several factors could negatively or posi- tions market in recent years has raised the tively impact the NGSO forecast: question of what new markets, if any, will stimulate demand for NGSO launches in § U.S. national and global economy—It the future. Space tourism, or public space is not coincidental that the NGSO mar- travel, appears to be a promising new market sector on the horizon. The question is ket’s peak activity was during a time of when public space travel will emerge. In continued U.S. economic expansion April 2001, the first paying space tourist, when investment capital soared during Dennis Tito, launched to the International the 1990s. Similarly, economic good Space Station (ISS) for a one-week visit. times in other countries generated high A second tourist, Mark Shuttleworth, was interest in new telecommunications serv- launched in April 2002. Other paying pas- ices from space. These situations are no sengers are negotiating for rides, and stud- longer present. Growth or decline in ies have shown that enough of a business space markets is often affected by market exists, even at high prices. In the national economies, similar to other wake of the Columbia accident, future businesses. space tourist flights on Soyuz missions have been suspended and are not expected § Investor confidence—After investors to resume until after the Space Shuttle suffered large losses from the bankrupt- returns to flight. cies of high-profile NGSO systems, confidence in future and follow-on NGSO With regards to the NGSO forecast, Soyuz telecommunications systems plummeted. tourist flights involve selling the third seat Skepticism remains about broadband on regularly-scheduled return vehicle NGSO systems, especially because of exchange missions that would have been high entry costs. Some investors may be

46 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

waiting for examples of success in the § Regulatory and political changes— GSO broadband market. Although satel- Changes in FCC processes, security con- lite radio is steadily growing in the cerns with the export of space technolo- United States, it has not reached high gy, and political relations between coun- confidence levels for investors in Europe tries can all affect demand. For example, or Asia. in April 2003, the FCC adopted a new licensing process to speed things up and § Satellite lifespan—Many satellites out- put pressure on companies that are not last their planned design life. The desig- making progress towards launching nated launch years in this forecast for satellites. The new process includes replacement satellites, especially for shorter waiting periods to receive a satellites three or four years ahead, are license (270 days or less turnaround for often estimates for when a new satellite NGSO applicants) and a requirement for would be needed. Because many active companies to post a $5- to $7.5-million satellites in NGSO today are first-gener- bond within 30 days of receiving a ation systems, their lifespans are uncer- license. tain and their health may be guarded for competitive reasons. § Terrestrial competition—As seen with Big LEO mobile communications, the § Need for replacement satellites— customer market for long-developing Although a satellite might have a long space systems may be overtaken by lifespan, it could be replaced early more effective technology (e.g., cellular because it is no longer cost effective to telephones) on the ground. Broadband maintain, or an opportunity could arise satellites face fiber-optic competition, that would allow a satellite owner/opera- much of it installed in urban areas over tor to leap ahead of the competition with the past five years. Developers of new a technological advancement. An exam- space systems have to plan ahead exten- ple of this is higher-resolution commer- sively for design, construction, and test- cial remote sensing satellites. ing of space technologies, while developers of terrestrial technologies can react § Business case changes—The satellite and build to market trends more quickly owner/operator can experience budget and, in some cases, convince investors shortfalls, change strategies, or request of a faster return on investment. technology upgrades late in the manufacturing stage, all of which can contribute § Launch failure—A launch vehicle fail- to schedule delay. Or there could be an ure can delay plans, delay other satellites infusion of cash from new investors that awaiting a ride on the same vehicle, or could revive a stalled system or acceler- cause a shift to other vehicles and, thus, ate schedules. possibly impact their schedules. Failures, § Corporate mergers—The merging of however, have not caused customers to two or more companies may make it terminate plans. The entire industry is less likely for each to continue previous affected by failures, because insurers plans and can reduce the number of raise rates on all launch providers. competing systems that launch. § Satellite manufacturing delay— Conversely, mergers can have a positive Increased efforts on quality control at impact by pooling the resources of two large satellite-manufacturing firms seen weaker firms to enable launches that in the past few years can delay delivery would not have otherwise occurred.

Federal Aviation Administration and the 47 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

of completed satellites to launch sites. tions. However, to open an entirely new Schedule delays could impact timelines market in NGSO, such as for public for future demand. space travel, an expendable or reusable vehicle offering low launch prices would § Failure of orbiting satellites—From the likely increase demand, according to the launch services perspective, failure of 2003 NASA ASCENT Study Final Report. orbiting satellites could mean ground spares are launched or new satellites Methodology are ordered. This would only amount to a small effect on the market. A total sys- This report is based on FAA/AST research tem failure has not happened to any and discussions with industry, including NGSO constellation. satellite service providers, satellite manufacturers, launch service providers, and § Increase in government missions open independent analysts. to launch services competition—Some governments keep launch services con- The forecast considers progress in financ- tracts within their borders to support ing, design maturity, licensing, partner- domestic launch industries. The ships, target market development, space- European Space Agency has held inter- craft development, launch services con- national launch competitions for some tracts, and deployment plans for publicly- of its small science missions. While announced satellites. Equally important established space-faring nations are considerations include investor confidence reluctant to open up to international in service markets, competition from ter- competition, the number of nations with restrial and space sectors (including GSO new satellite programs but without space satellites and currently operating NGSO launch access is slowly increasing. systems), and national and global economic conditions. In addition, the status of orbit- § Increase in government purchases of ing systems and their business histories commercial services—For a variety of were evaluated. Interviews with system reasons, government entities have been operators and the FCC were conducted for purchasing more space-related services this report. from commercial companies. For example, DoD has funded the continuation of Traditionally, very small satellites—those Iridium service, purchased commercial with masses of under 100 kilograms (220 remote sensing data, and purchased pounds)—ride as secondary payloads and excess capacity on communications thus do not constitute a “demand” for a satellites. NASA has also purchased single launch in this forecast. However, the science data such as with OrbView 2. launch providers for the Russian/Ukrainian Dnepr and Russia’s Cosmos are flexible § Introduction of a low price launch enough to fly several small satellites vehicle—Although relatively low-price together without a single large primary launches are available on Russian launch payload. Therefore, these missions can vehicles, low prices have not increased act as a driver of demand in this report. satellite demand for the past four years for either large or small satellites. In The satellite systems considered likely to addition to market factors already dis- be launched are entered into an Excel- cussed, all the other costs to do business based “traffic model.” The model generates in space are expensive: from satellite deployment schedules by year based on design and construction to insurance to either known or estimated launch activity ground systems and continued opera- and the number of satellites in a constella-

48 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast tion. The model also delineates market seg- Commercial NGSO systems use a variety ments, assigns small or medium-to-heavy of orbits, including the following: vehicles based on satellite mass (unless vehicles are already designated), and calcu- § Low Earth orbits (LEO) range from lates total payloads and launches through- 160–2400 kilometers (100–1,500 miles) out the forecast period. in altitude, varying between 0° inclination for equatorial coverage and 101° Follow-on systems and replacement satel- inclination for global coverage; lites for existing systems are evaluated on a case-by-case basis. In some cases, expected § Medium Earth orbits (MEO) begin at future activity was beyond the timeframe 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles) in alti- of the forecast. tude and are typically at a 45° inclination to allow for global coverage using fewer Finally, international launch providers were higher-powered satellites. However, surveyed for the latest available near-term MEO is often a term applied to orbits manifests. For the remote sensing and between LEO and GSO; and international science markets, near-term primary payloads that generated individual § Elliptical orbits (ELI, also known as commercial launches (see Table 19) were highly-elliptical orbits (HEO)) have used in the model while future years were apogees ranging from 7,600 kilometers estimated based on historical activity. (4,725 miles) to 35,497 kilometers Vehicle Sizes and Orbits (22,000 miles) in altitude and up to 116.5° inclination, allowing satellites to Small launch vehicles are defined as those “hang” over certain regions on Earth, with a payload capacity of less than 2,268 such as North America. kilograms (5,000 pounds) to LEO, at 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) altitude and § External or non-geocentric orbits (EXT) 28.5° inclination. Medium-to-heavy launch are centered on a celestial body other vehicles are capable of carrying more than than the Earth. They differ from highly- 2,268 kilograms (5,000 pounds), at 185 elliptical orbits (ELI) in that they are not kilometers (100 nautical miles) altitude closed loops around Earth and a space- and 28.5° inclination. craft in EXT will not return to an Earth Table 19. Near-Term NGSO Satellite Manifest Service Type 2003 2004 2005 2006 Commercial Remote OrbView 3 - Pegasus XL EROS B1 - START 1 TerraSar X - Dnepr Ikonos Follow On - TBD Sensing TrailBlazer - Dnepr Radarsat 2 - Delta 2 QuickBird Follow On - TBD Landsat Follow On - TBD EROS B2 - START 1 RapidEye 1 - TBD RapidEye 2 - TBD RapidEye 3 - TBD RapidEye 4 - TBD RapidEye 5 - TBD International Science Mars Express - Soyuz China TBD - Cosmos VNSat - Cosmos Beagle 2 - Soyuz Topsat - Cosmos Thai-Paht 2 - Cosmos Nigeriasat - Cosmos Cryosat - Rockot BNSCSat - Cosmos Kompsat 2 - Rockot BilSat - Cosmos Egyptsat - Dnepr Rocsat 2 - Taurus Demeter - Dnepr Cosmos 1 - Volna SERVIS 1 - Rockot Other

Total Satellites 10 7 4 9 Total Launches 7 6 3 5 Note: This manifest includes only those satellites announced as of May 14, 2003.

Federal Aviation Administration and the 49 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

orbit. In some cases, this term is used • No new Little LEO systems in for payloads intended to reach another addition to the already-deployed celestial body (e.g., the Moon) even ORBCOMM. This is the same num- though part of the journey is spent in a ber as the 2002 forecast; free-return orbit that would result in an • No new Big LEO systems to join the Earth return if not altered at the appro- already-deployed Iridium and priate time to reach its destination orbit. Globalstar systems. This is one less than the number of systems projected Satellite and Launch Forecast in 2002; and • No new Broadband LEO systems. In this forecast, the satellite projection is slightly higher while the launch projection Table 20 and Figures 14 and 15 show the is lower than in the 2002 forecast. These baseline forecast in which 80 satellites will numbers reflect reduced expectations in be deployed between 2003 and 2012. In the telecommunications sector balanced by comparison to last year’s forecast of 79 a similar expected increase in international total satellites (2002–2011), this year’s science and other activities. The forecast projections are up one percent. By contrast, for the remote sensing sector has remained the 2001 baseline forecast (2001–2010) steady from last year to the present. contained 151 satellites. Table 21 shows Baseline Scenario the mass distributions of manifested satellites over the next four years. The predomi- The baseline scenario anticipates the nance of the smaller satellites is evident, following satellite market characteristics with 70 percent of all satellites going to from 2003–2012: NGSO in the next four years expected to be less than 600 kilograms. In reality, this § International science and other satellites percentage can be expected to be even will comprise about 75 percent of the higher, as some of the smallest satellites payload market, up from 43 percent of can appear quickly when budgets allow the satellite market forecast in 2002. and have a short development phase from design to launch. This makes them difficult § Remote sensing will encompass about 25 to forecast. percent of the market with about 20 satellites; both numbers are the same as The 80-satellite total forecast over the next those forecast in 2002. 10 years, accounting for multiple manifesting on launch vehicles, yields a commer- § NGSO communications systems will cial launch demand of about 51 launches drop to zero percent of the satellite market. Details include: over the forecast period. This demand

Table 20. Baseline Market Scenario Satellite and Launch Forecast 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TOTAL Avg Satellites Big LEO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 Little LEO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 Broadband 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 International Scientific/Other 8 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 60 6.0 Commercial Remote Sensing 2 1 2 9 2 1 1 0 0 2 20 2.0 Total Satellites 10 7 8 15 7 7 7 5 6 8 80 8.0 Launch Demand Medium-to-Heavy Vehicles 2 2 3 5 2 2 1 1 1 3 22 2.2 Small Vehicles 5 4 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 29 2.9 Total Launches 7 6 5 8 5 4 4 4 3 5 51 5.1

50 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast breaks down into about three launches payload market share, remote sensing annually on small launch vehicles and two launches have remained the same in 2002 launches annually on medium-to-heavy and 2003, forecast at 16 launches both launch vehicles. Overall, the current launch years. However, the market share of remote count of 51 launches is down 19 percent sensing launches within the entire 10-year from last year’s prediction of 63 launches launch forecast has increased from about over 10 years. With 35 launches projected, 25 percent in 2002 to about 31 percent in international science and other payloads the 2003 forecast. The combined telecom- such as technology demonstrators account munications sectors (Little, Big, and for about 69 percent of the launch demand Broadband LEO) together account for zero through 2012, up from about 52 percent percent of the total payload market, a dra- of the launch demand forecast last year. matic decrease from previous forecasts. Similar to remote sensing payloads and

Figure 14. Baseline Market Scenario Satellite Forecast

40 Broadband LEO Big LEO Little LEO Int'l Scientific/Remote Sensing/Other 30

20 Satellites

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Figure 15. Baseline Market Scenario Launch Demand Forecast

40 Small (<2,268 kg LEO)

Medium to Heavy (>2,268 kg LEO)

20 Launches

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Federal Aviation Administration and the 51 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

This year’s report does not include a robust calendar year. NGSO activity peaked with market scenario, because the robust model 19 launches in 1998 when Iridium, of scientific and commercial remote sens- Globalstar, and ORBCOMM were active. It ing payloads did not yield a significant should be pointed out that the 1998 projec- increase. Furthermore, market uncertainties tions were reasonable at that time based on preclude an accurate forecast of new demand and that market conditions in telecommunications systems or replace- NGSO change rapidly. ments of existing telecommunications systems within the 2003–2012 time period. For the second time since FAA/AST began However, space markets can change rela- forecasting, the number of baseline interna- tively rapidly and the robust scenario could tional science satellites and commercial return in future forecasts. remote sensing satellites combined are more than those in the telecommunications Historical NGSO Market sector throughout the entire forecast. The Assessments 2002 forecast was the first occurrence of this turnaround from the communications- A historical comparison of FAA/AST base- dominated forecasts of the late 1990s. line forecasts from 1998 to the present is in Figure 16. Actual launches to date are also Table 22 lists actual payloads launched by displayed. Since publication of the first market sector and total commercial launch- projections for NGSO/LEO launches in es that were internationally-competed from 1994, there has been tremendous growth in 1994–2002. Medium-to-heavy vehicles had the number of proposed NGSO systems. In 39 launches during this period while small 1998, FAA/AST forecasted a demand of vehicles had 32. The 2003 forecast esti- 1,202 payloads over a 13-year period mates launch demand for more small vehi- (1998–2010), with a peak year of 59 cle launches (29) than medium-to-heavy launches in 2002. However, since 1999, vehicle launches (22) from 2003–2012. FAA/AST has reduced its annual forecasts as demand in the marketplace fell. This Historical satellite and launch data for the year’s forecast is the first forecast since period 1993–2002 are shown in Table 23. 1998 in which the number of payloads has Secondary and piggyback payloads on increased from the previous forecast, launches with larger primary payloads were though the number of launches have con- not included in the payload or launch tabu- tinued to decrease. The 2003 forecast esti- lations. mates only seven launches during the 2003

Table 21. Distribution of Satellite Masses in Near-Term Manifest

Percent 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total of Total < 200 kg 5 4 2 0 11 37% (< 441 lbm) 200-600 kg 3 1 0 6 10 33% (441-1323 lbm) 600-1200 kg 2 2 1 2 7 23% (1323-2646 lbm) > 1200 kg (> 2646 lbm) 0 0 1 1 2 7%

Total 10 7 4 9 30 100%

52 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

Table 22. Historical Commercial NGSO Activity*

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Satellites Big LEO 0 0 0 46 60 42 5 1 7 Little LEO 0 3 0 8 18 7 0 0 2 International Science/Other 0 0 2 1 4 5 11 1 6 Commercial Remote Sensing 0 1 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 Total Satellites 0 4 2 57 82 56 18 4 15 Launches Medium to Heavy vehicles 0 0 1 8 9 11 6 2 2 Small vehicles 0 2 1 5 10 7 3 2 2 Total Launches 0 2 2 13 19 18 9 4 4 *Includes payloads open to international launch services procurement and other commercially-sponsored payloads. Does not include dummy payloads. Also not included in this forecast are those satellites that are captive to national flag launch service providers (i.e., USAF or NASA satellites, or similar European, Russian, Japanese, or Chinese government satellites that are captive to their own launch providers). Does not include piggy-back payloads. Only primary payloads that generate a launch are included unless combined secondaries generate the demand.

Figure 16. Comparison of Past Baseline Launch Demand Forecasts

60 Historical Forecast

40 1998 Projections

1999 Projections Launches 20 2000 Projections

2002 Projections 10 Actual 2001 Projections

2003 Projections 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Federal Aviation Administration and the 53 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

Table 23. Historical NGSO Satellite and Launch Activities (1993-2002)*

Summary Market Segment Date Satellite Launch Vehicle 2002 15 Satellites Big LEO 2/11/02 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 7 Big LEO 6/20/02 Iridium (2 sats) Rockot Small 2 Little LEO 6 Int'l Science Little LEO 12/20/02 LatinSat (2 sats) Dnepr Medium-to-Heavy

4 Launches International Science 3/17/02 GRACE (2 sats) Rockot Small 2 Medium-to-Heavy 12/20/02 SaudiSat 2 Dnepr Medium-to-Heavy 2 Small Unisat 2 RUBIN 2 Trailblazer Structural Test Article 2001 4 Satellites Big LEO 6/19/01 ICO F-2 Atlas 2AS Medium-to-Heavy 1 Big LEO 2 Remote Sensing Remote Sensing 9/21/01 OrbView 4 Taurus Small 1 Int'l. Science 10/18/01 QuickBird Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy

4 Launches International Science 2/20/01 Odin START 1 Small 2 Medium-to-Heavy 2 Small 2000 18 Satellites Big LEO 2/8/00 Globalstar (4 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 5 Big LEO 3/12/00 ICO Z-1 Zenit 3SL Medium-to-Heavy 2 Remote Sensing 8 Int'l. Science Remote Sensing 11/21/00 QuickBird 1 Cosmos Small 3 Other 12/5/00 EROS A1 START 1 Small

International Science 7/15/00 Champ Cosmos Small Mita RUBIN 9/26/00 MegSat 1 Dnepr 1 Medium-to-Heavy SaudiSat 1-1 SaudiSat 1-2 Tiungsat 1 Unisat

9 Launches Other 6/30/00 Sirius Radio 1 Proton Medium-to-Heavy 6 Medium-to-Heavy 9/5/00 Sirius Radio 2 Proton Medium-to-Heavy 3 Small 11/30/00 Sirius Radio 3 Proton Medium-to-Heavy 1999 56 Satellites Big LEO 2/9/99 Globalstar (4 sats) Soyuz Medium-to-Heavy 42 Big LEO 3/15/99 Globalstar (4 sats) Soyuz Medium-to-Heavy 7 Little LEO 4/15/99 Globalstar (4 sats) Soyuz Medium-to-Heavy 2 Remote Sensing 6/10/99 Globalstar (4 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 5 Int'l. Science 6/11/99 Iridium (2 sats) LM-2C Small 7/10/99 Globalstar (4 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 7/25/99 Globalstar (4 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 8/17/99 Globalstar (4 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 9/22/99 Globalstar (4 sats) Soyuz Medium-to-Heavy 10/18/99 Globalstar (4 sats) Soyuz Medium-to-Heavy 11/22/99 Globalstar (4 sats) Soyuz Medium-to-Heavy

Little LEO 12/4/99 ORBCOMM (7 sats) Pegasus Small

Remote Sensing 4/27/99 IKONOS 1 Athena 2 Small 9/24/99 IKONOS 2 Athena 2 Small

International Science 1/26/99 Formosat 1 Athena 1 Small 4/21/99 UoSat 12 Dnepr 1 Medium-to-Heavy 18 Launches 4/29/99 Abrixas Cosmos Small 11 Medium-to-Heavy MegSat 0 7 Small 12/21/99 Kompsat Taurus Small

*Includes payloads open to international launch services procurement and other commercially-sponsored payloads. Does not include dummy payloads. Also not included in this forecast are those satellites that are captive to national flag launch service providers (i.e., USAF or NASA satellites, or similar European, Russian, Japanese, or Chinese government satellites that are captive to their own launch providers). Does not include piggy-back payloads. Only primary payloads that generate launch demand are included unless combined secondaries generated the demand.

54 Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

Summary Market Segment Date Payload Launch Vehicle 1998 82 Satellites Broadband LEO 2/25/98 Teledesic T1 (BATSAT) Pegasus Small 1 Broadband LEO 60 Big LEO Big LEO 2/14/98 Globalstar (4 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 18 Little LEO 2/18/98 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 3 Int'l. Science 3/25/98 Iridium (2 sats) LM-2C Small 3/29/98 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 4/7/98 Iridium (7 sats) Proton Medium-to-Heavy 4/24/98 Globalstar (4 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 5/2/98 Iridium (2 sats) LM-2C Small 5/17/98 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 8/20/98 Iridium (2 sats) LM-2C Small 9/8/98 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 9/10/98 Globalstar (12 sats) Zenit 2 Medium-to-Heavy 11/6/98 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 12/19/98 Iridium (2 sats) LM-2C Small

Little LEO 2/10/98 ORBCOMM (2 sats) Taurus Small 8/2/98 ORBCOMM (8 sats) Pegasus Small 9/23/98 ORBCOMM (8 sats) Pegasus Small 19 Launches 9 Medium-to-Heavy International Science 7/7/98 Tubsat N & Tubsat N 1 Shtil Small 10 Small 10/22/98 SCD 2 Pegasus Small 1997 57 Satellites Big LEO 5/5/97 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 46 Big LEO 6/18/97 Iridium (7 sats) Proton Medium-to-Heavy 8 Little LEO 7/9/97 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 2 Remote Sensing 8/20/97 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 1 Int'l. Science 9/14/97 Iridium (7 sats) Proton Medium-to-Heavy 9/26/97 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 11/8/97 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy 12/8/97 Iridium (2 sats) LM-2C Small 12/20/97 Iridium (5 sats) Delta 2 Medium-to-Heavy

Little LEO 12/23/97 ORBCOMM (8 sats) Pegasus Small

Remote Sensing 8/1/97 OrbView 2 Pegasus Small 13 Launches 12/24/97 EarlyBird 1 START 1 Small 8 Medium-to-Heavy 5 Small International Science 4/21/97 Minisat 0.1 Pegasus Small 1996 2 Satellites International Science 4/30/96 SAX Atlas 1 Medium-to-Heavy 2 Int'l. Science 11/4/96 SAC B Pegasus Small

2 Launches 1 Medium-to-Heavy 1 Small 1995 4 Satellites Little LEO 4/3/95 ORBCOMM (2 sats) Pegasus Small 3 Little LEO 8/15/95 GEMStar 1 Athena 1 Small 1 Remote Sensing International Science 4/3/95 OrbView 1 (Microlab) Pegasus Small 2 Launches 2 Small 1994 0 Satellites 0 Launches 1993 2 Satellites Little LEO 2/9/93 CDS 1 Pegasus 1 Small 1 Little LEO 1 Int'l. Science International Science 2/9/93 SCD 1 Pegasus 1 Small

1 Launch 1 Small

Federal Aviation Administration and the 55 Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC)