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2003 Launch Forecast.Pdf 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts About the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee The Federal Aviation Administration’s in 1985, COMSTAC is made up of senior Associate Administrator for Commercial executives from the U.S. commercial space Space Transportation (FAA/AST) licenses transportation and satellite industries, and regulates U.S. commercial space space-related state government officials, launch activity as authorized by Executive and other space professionals. Order 12465 (Commercial Expendable Launch Vehicle Activities) and 49 United The primary goals of COMSTAC are to: States Code Subtitle IX, Chapter 701 (for- merly the Commercial Space Launch Act). § Evaluate economic, technological and AST’s mission is to license and regulate institutional issues relating to the U.S. commercial launch operations to ensure commercial space transportation indus- public health and safety and the safety of try; property, and to protect national security and foreign policy interests of the United § Provide a forum for the discussion of States. The Commercial Space Launch Act issues involving the relationship between of 1984 and the 1996 National Space Policy also direct the Federal Aviation industry and government requirements; Administration to encourage, facilitate, and and promote commercial launches. § Make recommendations to the The Commercial Space Transportation Administrator on issues and approaches Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) pro- for Federal policies and programs vides information, advice, and recommen- regarding the industry. dations to the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration within the Additional information concerning AST Department of Transportation (DOT) on and COMSTAC can be found on AST’s matters relating to the U.S. commercial web site, http://ast.faa.gov. space transportation industry. Established Cover: Art by Phil Smith (2003) Federal Aviation Administration and the i Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts ii Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts Table of Contents Executive Summary . .1 Introduction . .3 Growth of Commercial Space Transportation . .3 About the COMSTAC 2003 Commercial Geosynchronous Launch Demand Model . .3 About the FAA NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast . .3 Combined Satellite and Launch Forecasts . .3 COMSTAC 2003 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Model . .7 Executive Summary . .7 Introduction . .9 Background . .10 Methodology . .10 COMSTAC Demand Projection vs. Actual Launches Realized . .12 Factors That Affect Launch Realization . .12 2002 Space Industry Performance on Launch Demand . .13 Projecting Actual Launches . .13 2003 Satellite Launch Demand Model . .14 Satellite Launch Mass Classes . .15 Commercial GSO Satellite Trends . .16 Industry Metrics . .16 Future Trends . .18 Comparison with Previous COMSTAC Demand Forecasts . .20 Launch Vehicle Demand . .21 Factors That May Affect Future Demand . .22 Summary . .24 Appendix A. Use of the COMSTAC GSO Launch Demand Model . .25 Demand Model Defined . .25 Appendix B. Supplemental Questionnaire . .26 Appendix C. Letter from the Associate Administrator . .28 Appendix D. Historical Launches . .31 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits . .35 Executive Summary . .35 Introduction . .36 NGSO Satellite Systems . .37 International Science and Other Payloads . .37 Digital Audio Radio Services . .38 Market Demand Scenarios . .38 Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites . .38 DigitalGlobe . .39 ImageSat International . .39 InfoTerra GmbH . .39 ORBIMAGE . .39 Radarsat International . .41 RapidEye AG . .41 Resource21 . .41 Space Imaging . .41 TransOrbital . .42 Market Demand Scenarios . .42 Federal Aviation Administration and the iii Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts “Little LEO” Telecommunications Systems . .42 Recent Developments . .42 Competition . .43 “Big LEO” and Mobile Satellite Services . .43 Globalstar . .43 ICO . .44 Iridium . .45 “Broadband LEO” Systems . .45 Recent Developments . .46 Future Markets . .46 Risk Factors That Affect Demand . .46 Methodology . .48 Vehicle Sizes and Orbits . .49 Satellite and Launch Forecast . .50 Baseline Scenario . .50 Historical NGSO Market Assessments . .52 iv Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2003 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts List of Figures Figure 1. GSO Satellite and Launch Demand . ..
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