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COFCO Meat Holdings 1610.HK, 1610 HK the Pen Is Full

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COFCO Meat Holdings 1610.HK, 1610 HK the Pen Is Full Completed 04 Dec 2016 03:54 PM HKT Disseminated 05 Dec 2016 12:15 AM HKT Asia Pacific Equity Research 05 December 2016 Initiation Neutral COFCO Meat Holdings 1610.HK, 1610 HK The pen is full. Initiate coverage at Neutral Price: HK$1.64 Price Target: HK$1.90 We initiate coverage of COFCO Meat with a Neutral rating and a Dec-17 China price target of HK$1.90. A subsidiary of COFCO Group, COFCO Meat operates Consumer a vertically integrated value chain including feed & hog production, slaughtering, AC production and sale of fresh pork and processed meat products. Near-term Ebru Sener Kurumlu earnings benefits from high hog prices and benign input costs (we expect COFCO (852) 2800-8521 Meat to post a profit in FY16E vs a loss in FY15), and ongoing market-share [email protected] Bloomberg JPMA KURUMLU <GO> gains given the fragmented market should sustain strong volumes. But the company is likely to face some earnings volatility over the next two years as George Hsu profits are very sensitive to hog prices, which peaked in 1H16. Although we see (852) 2800-8559 [email protected] 15% potential upside to our price target, we are concerned about downside risks to Shen Li, CFA estimates should hog prices soften beyond our base estimates. (852) 2800 8523 Investment positives: (1) Near-term earnings benefits from cyclically high [email protected] hog prices and benign input costs: i) China hog prices were in an upcycle Daisy Lu since mid-2015, reaching a cyclically high level in 1H16; ii) input costs are (852) 2800-8593 benign, with corn prices down and the hog-to-corn ratio at a cyclically high [email protected] level in 2016. (2) Solid long-term growth drivers for volume and margins: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (i) leading player in a consolidating market, securing volume growth; (ii) achievable cost savings via efficiency improvements; (iii) longer hog price Price Performance cycles at higher levels, with diminishing intervention in corn markets; 2.2 (iv) growing downstream business, given a strong brand and vertical 2.0 integration. (3) Diversified shareholder structure and strong support from the HK$ 1.8 parent company likely to offer operational synergies. 1.6 1.4 Investment risks: (1) Continuing earnings volatility due to hog price cycles; Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 (2) earnings highly sensitive to hog and corn prices; (3) China’s pork per capita 1610.HK share price (HK$) consumption already at high levels, with risk of long-term growth flattening; HSI (rebased) (4) risk from rising US imports, which could cap the price of pork in China; and YTD 1m 3m 12m Abs -18.0% -1.2% -18.0% -18.0% (5) food safety and regulatory risks. Rel -22.0% -0.6% -17.0% -19.8% Valuation: Given the earnings volatility we use a DCF valuation and arrive at a valuation of HK$9.2b and a Dec-17 PT of HK$1.9, based on a hog-to-corn ratio of 6.5:1 (16-year average hog-to-corn ratio in China). This equates to a 2017E P/E of 9.6x vs China pork names trading in a range of 9-15x. COFCO Meat Holdings (Reuters: 1610.HK, Bloomberg: 1610 HK) Rmb in mn, year-end Dec FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Company Data Revenue (Rmb mn) 3,746 5,056 7,239 8,363 9,967 Shares O/S (mn) 4,877 Net Profit (Rmb mn) (349) 210 618 1,513 1,078 Market Cap (Rmb mn) 7,101 EPS (Rmb) (0.09) 0.05 0.13 0.31 0.22 Market Cap ($ mn) 1,031 DPS (Rmb) - - - - - Price (HK$) 1.64 Revenue growth (%) 0.3% 35.0% 43.2% 15.5% 19.2% Date Of Price 01 Dec 16 EPS growth (%) 338.8% (160.0%) 136.0% 144.7% (28.7%) Free Float(%) - ROCE (4.3%) 1.3% 14.7% 11.5% 10.3% 3M - Avg daily vol (mn) - ROE (21.1%) (0.9%) 20.9% 14.3% 12.7% 3M - Avg daily val (HK$ mn) - P/E (x) NM 27.1 11.5 4.7 6.6 3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) - P/E(Recurring) NM NM 8.8 8.4 7.8 HSI 2,2878.23 P/BV (x) 2.4 2.1 1.4 1.1 0.9 Exchange Rate 7.76 EV/EBITDA (x) 164.9 26.6 5.8 5.4 4.7 Price Target End Date 31-Dec-17 Dividend Yield - - - - - Recurring Profit (Rmb mn) (286) (22) 810 841 911 Recurring EPS (Rmb) (0.07) (0.01) 0.17 0.17 0.19 Recurring EPS Growth 240.5% (92.2%) (3003.9%) 3.7% 8.4% Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. See page 52 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com This document is being provided for the exclusive use of [email protected]. {[{QZ]*Owksv*O*|o}J l}}nsm8myw*:@9;<9<:;@}]} Ebru Sener Kurumlu Asia Pacific Equity Research (852) 2800-8521 05 December 2016 [email protected] Key catalyst for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view: Hog price changes, and the ratio of hog (1) Near-term earnings benefits from cyclically high (1) Continuing earnings volatility due to hog price prices to feed prices, will remain the key hog prices and benign input costs cycle share price drivers in the near term (2) Solid long-term growth drivers for volume and (2) Earnings highly sensitive to hog and corn prices margins (3) China’s pork per capita consumption already at (3) Diversified shareholder structure and strong high levels, with risk of long-term growth flattening support from parent company likely to offer (4) Risk from rising US imports, which could cap the operational synergies price of pork in China (5) Food safety and regulatory risks Key financial metrics FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Valuation and price target basis Revenues (LC) 3,746 5,056 7,239 8,363 Given the earnings volatility we use a DCF valuation and Revenue growth (%) 0.3% 35.0% 43.2% 15.5% arrive at a valuation of HK$9.2b and a Dec-17 PT of HK$1.9, EBITDA (LC) (24) (14) 288 1,316 based on hog-to-corn ratio of 6.5:1 (which is the 16-year EBITDA margin (%) -0.6% -0.3% 4.0% 15.7% average hog-to-corn ratio in China). This equates to a 2017E Tax rate (%) -1.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% P/E of 9.6x vs China pork names trading in a range of 9-15x. Net profit (LC) (349) 210 618 1,513 Recurring EPS (LC) (0.07) (0.01) 0.17 0.17 EPS growth (%) 240.5% na na 3.7% COFCO Meat - Share price (HK$) DPS (LC) - - - - 2.5 BVPS (LC) 0.60 0.68 1.05 1.36 Operating cash flow (LC mn) (370) 381 597 1,101 2.2 Free cash flow (LC mn) (907) (268) (569) 32 1.9 Interest cover (X) 0.4 2.6 9.4 10.3 Net margin (%) -9.3% 4.1% 8.5% 18.1% 1.6 Sales/assets (X) 0.6x 0.7x 0.8x 0.8x 1.3 Debt/equity (%) 142.9% 91.7% 47.5% 36.6% Net debt/equity (%) 55.0% 85.0% 13.0% 13.6% 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - ROE (%) -21.1% -0.9% 20.9% 14.3% - - - - - - - - - - - t v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v c c o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o e O Key model assumptions FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 3 Sales Growth 0.3% 35.0% 43.2% 15.5% 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 Gross Margin 3.2% 2.3% 5.1% 16.4% Operating Margin -4.7% 1.4% 13.0% 11.9% Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg JPMe vs consensus, change in estimates Sensitivity analysis EBIT EPS EPS FY16E FY17E Sensitivity to FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E JPMe old na na +5% chg to hog prices 14.0% 23.0% 15.0% 25.0% JPMe new 0.2 0.2 +5% chg to corn prices -5.0% -6.0% -6.0% -7.0% % chg na na +5% chg to soybean prices -3.0% -4.0% -3.0% -4.0% Consensus na na Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Comparative metrics CMP Mkt Cap P/E EV/EBITDA P/BV YTD LC $Mn FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Stock perf. WH GROUP LTD 6.3 12,014 12.6x 11.4x 6.9x 6.2x 1.9x 1.7x 51.2% GUANGDONG WENS-A 35.1 22,689 11.2x 11.6x 10.3x 13.3x 4.0x 3.2x -3.4% HENAN SHUAN-A 22.5 10,834 16.4x 14.8x 10.9x 9.6x 4.3x 4.0x 22.1% MUYUAN FOODSTU-A 24.8 3,776 12.2x 12.3x na na 3.9x 2.9x 7.5% CHUYING AGRO -A 5.3 2,396 15.0x 12.0x na na 3.0x 2.4x -6.1% Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P.
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