Completed 04 Dec 2016 03:54 PM HKT Disseminated 05 Dec 2016 12:15 AM HKT Asia Pacific Equity Research 05 December 2016 Initiation Neutral COFCO Meat Holdings 1610.HK, 1610 HK The pen is full. Initiate coverage at Neutral Price: HK$1.64 Price Target: HK$1.90 We initiate coverage of COFCO Meat with a Neutral rating and a Dec-17 China price target of HK$1.90. A subsidiary of COFCO Group, COFCO Meat operates Consumer a vertically integrated value chain including feed & hog production, slaughtering, AC production and sale of fresh pork and processed meat products. Near-term Ebru Sener Kurumlu earnings benefits from high hog prices and benign input costs (we expect COFCO (852) 2800-8521 Meat to post a profit in FY16E vs a loss in FY15), and ongoing market-share
[email protected] Bloomberg JPMA KURUMLU <GO> gains given the fragmented market should sustain strong volumes. But the company is likely to face some earnings volatility over the next two years as George Hsu profits are very sensitive to hog prices, which peaked in 1H16. Although we see (852) 2800-8559
[email protected] 15% potential upside to our price target, we are concerned about downside risks to Shen Li, CFA estimates should hog prices soften beyond our base estimates. (852) 2800 8523 Investment positives: (1) Near-term earnings benefits from cyclically high
[email protected] hog prices and benign input costs: i) China hog prices were in an upcycle Daisy Lu since mid-2015, reaching a cyclically high level in 1H16; ii) input costs are (852) 2800-8593 benign, with corn prices down and the hog-to-corn ratio at a cyclically high
[email protected] level in 2016.