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The Influence of Geological Data on the Reservoir Modelling and History Matching Process

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The Influence of Geological Data on the Reservoir Modelling and History Matching Process The influence of geological data on the reservoir modelling and history matching process G. de Jager 2 The influence of geological data on the reservoir modelling and history matching process Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Technische Universiteit Delft, op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof.ir. K.C.A.M. Luyben, voorzitter van het College voor Promoties, in het openbaar te verdedigen op woensdag 11 april 2012 om 10:00 uur door Gerben DE JAGER doctorandus in de Geologie geboren te Nijmegen 3 Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotor: Prof. dr. S.M. Luthi Samenstelling promotiecommissie: Rector Magnificus, voorzitter Prof. Dr. S.M. Luthi, Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Prof. Dr. Ir. J.D. Jansen, Technische Universiteit Delft Prof. Dr.Ir. M.F.P. Bierkens, Universiteit Utrecht Prof. Ir. C.P.J.W. van Kruisdijk, Royal Dutch Shell Prof. W.R. Rossen, Technische Universiteit Delft Dr. J.E.A. Storms, Technische Universiteit Delft Dr. Ir. E. Peters, TNO Prof. Dr. J. Bruining Technische Universiteit Delft, reservelid Copyright © by G. de Jager, Section of Applied Geology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geotechnology, Delft University of Technology. All rights reserved, no parts of this thesis may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted, in any forms ro by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the author. 4 Voor Iris, Roan en Timo 5 6 Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................ 11 1.1 Hydrocarbons and their production ................................. 11 1.1.1 Energy consumption ......................................................... 11 1.1.2 Oil price change & future outlook .................................... 13 1.2 The Exploration and Production (E&P) Process ............. 13 1.2.1 Origins of oil and gas ....................................................... 13 1.2.2 Exploration ....................................................................... 14 1.2.3 Development ..................................................................... 15 1.2.4 Production ........................................................................ 16 1.2.5 FDP .................................................................................. 16 1.2.6 History matching .............................................................. 17 1.3 Objectives ............................................................................ 18 1.4 Thesis Outline ..................................................................... 18 2. Literature review ........................................................................ 20 2.1 Modeling .............................................................................. 20 2.2 Pixel-based modeling .......................................................... 21 2.2.1 Two-point modeling .......................................................... 21 2.2.2 Discontinuous facies models ............................................ 24 2.2.3 Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) ............................ 24 2.2.4 Truncated Gaussian Simulation (TGS) (Deutsch 2002) .. 24 2.2.5 Markov Chains ................................................................. 25 2.2.6 Multi-point statistics ......................................................... 26 2.2.7 filtersim ............................................................................. 30 2.3 Object-based modeling ....................................................... 32 2.3.1 Stochastic shales ............................................................... 33 2.3.2 Avulsion-based modeling .................................................. 34 2.3.3 Fluvsim ............................................................................. 34 2.3.4 Point bars ......................................................................... 38 2.3.5 Combinations .................................................................... 40 2.4 Process based / imitating models ....................................... 41 2.4.1 J. Allen (1978) .................................................................. 41 2.4.2 Bridge & Leeder (1979) ................................................... 42 2.4.3 Koltermann & Gorelick (1992) ........................................ 44 2.4.4 Paola (1992) ..................................................................... 45 2.4.5 Teles et al. (2001) ............................................................. 46 7 2.4.6 Karssenberg et al. (2001) ................................................. 47 2.5 Conclusions .......................................................................... 49 3 The effect of two-point statistical modeling parameters on fluid flow behavior of sub-surface reservoirs .................................................... 50 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 50 3.2 Methods ............................................................................... 50 3.2.1 Geostatistical method ....................................................... 50 3.2.2 Parameter choice and experimental design ..................... 51 3.2.3 Simulation ......................................................................... 52 3.2.4 Flow data analysis ............................................................ 54 3.3 Results .................................................................................. 55 3.3.1 Raw data ........................................................................... 55 3.3.2 ANOVA ............................................................................. 59 3.3.3 Response surfaces ............................................................. 60 3.4 Conclusions ......................................................................... 61 4. An evaluation of relevant geological parameters for predicting the flow behaviour of channelized reservoirs ................................................. 62 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 62 4.2 Methodology ........................................................................ 64 4.2.1 Design of experiments ...................................................... 65 4.2.2 Geological modelling ....................................................... 68 4.2.3 Simulation ......................................................................... 69 4.2.4 Characterization of flow response .................................... 69 4.2.5 Response surface modelling ............................................. 70 4.3 Results .................................................................................. 72 4.3.1 Correlation between input parameters, derived parameters and flow metrics 72 4.3.2 Input parameters............................................................... 72 4.3.3 Response surface .............................................................. 73 4.3.4 ANOVA ............................................................................. 74 4.4 Connectivity: a derived parameter ................................... 76 4.5 Application to flow-based model selection ....................... 78 4.5.1 Workflow ........................................................................... 78 4.5.2 Validation ......................................................................... 79 4.5.3 Predicting connectivity based on input parameters ......... 81 8 4.5.4 Other static parameters .................................................... 82 4.6 Discussion ............................................................................ 82 4.6.1 Perspectives for the application to real fields .................. 83 4.7 Conclusions ......................................................................... 84 5 Accessibility: a new three-dimensional metric for reservoir characterization and field development planning ........................................................ 86 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 86 5.2 Methodology ........................................................................ 88 5.2.1 Accessibility calculations ................................................. 88 5.2.2 2D Example of Accessibility ............................................. 90 5.2.3 Reservoir modeling ........................................................... 92 5.2.4 Flow simulations............................................................... 93 5.2.5 Relationship of accessibility with production and the use of simple metrics 95 5.3 Results .................................................................................. 97 5.4 Application .......................................................................... 98 5.4.1 Well placement analysis ................................................... 98 5.4.2 Accessibility and production behavior of wells .............. 100 5.5 Discussion & Conclusions ................................................ 103 6 The effect of errors in analogue geological models for fluid flow prediction 106 6.1 Introduction ...................................................................... 106 6.2 Methods ............................................................................. 107 6.2.1 Truth analogue ............................................................... 108 6.2.2 Analogues ....................................................................... 110 6.2.3 Modeling Workflow .......................................................
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