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Analysis of Rapidly Developing Fog at the Kennedy Space Center 1986 - 1990 Final Report

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Analysis of Rapidly Developing Fog at the Kennedy Space Center 1986 - 1990 Final Report Analysis of Rapidly Developing Fog at the Kennedy Space Center 1986 - 1990 Final Report Prepared for: NASA Kennedy Space Center Under Contract NAS10-11844 29 October 1993 Prepared By: Applied Meteorology Unit ENSCO, Inc. 445 Pineda Court Melbourne, Florida 32940 (407) 853-8201 (407) 254-4122 ENSCO ENSCO Attributes and Acknowledgments: NASA/KSC POC: Dr. Frank Mereceret, Chief, Applied Meteorology Unit TM-LLP-2A Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Mark M. Wheeler, Primary Author Michael K. Atchison Robin Schumann Greg E. Taylor John D. Warburton Ann Yersavich ii ENSCO Table Of Contents Attributes and Acknowledgments: ..................................................................................................... ii List of Figures .................................................................................................................................... v List of Tables ................................................................................................................................... vii 1.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Data Preparation and Case Selection ............................................................................... 3 3.0 Data Analysis Procedures ................................................................................................ 5 4.0 Fog Climatology .............................................................................................................. 8 4.1 General Fog Characteristics ............................................................................................. 8 4.2 Analysis of Fog Events (1986 - 1990) ........................................................................... 13 4.2.1 Analysis of the Fog Onset Times at TTS ................................................................. 13 4.2.2 Analysis of the Fog Dissipation Times .................................................................... 15 4.2.3 Analysis of the Wind Direction at Time of Fog Development ................................ 16 4.2.4 Analysis of the Advection Fog Events from the 36 Fog Cases ............................... 18 4.2.5 Analysis of Pre-Frontal Fog Events from the 36 Fog Cases .................................... 21 4.2.6 Analysis of Radiation Fog Events from the 36 Fog Cases ...................................... 24 4.3 Fog Forecast Indices ...................................................................................................... 24 5.0 Forecasting Tools ........................................................................................................... 28 5.1 Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) McBasi Program .............. 28 5.2 Fog Forecasting Decision Trees ..................................................................................... 32 6.0 Fog Precursors ................................................................................................................ 38 6.1 Fog Precursor Elements ................................................................................................. 38 6.2 Fog Precursors Skill Scores ........................................................................................... 39 7.0 Case Studies ................................................................................................................... 41 7.1 Advection Case .............................................................................................................. 41 iii ENSCO 7.2 ................................................................................................................................... Pre-Frontal Case 47 8.0 Summary and Recommendations .............................................................................................. 53 8.1 Summary of Results ....................................................................................................... 53 8.2 Forecaster Tools ............................................................................................................. 54 8.3 Upgrade MESONET Wind Towers ............................................................................... 55 9.0 References ...................................................................................................................... 55 iv ENSCO List of Figures Figure 3.1. Map of Central Florida .................................................................................................... 5 Figure 3.2. Location of the Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral AFS Wind Towers ................. 7 Figure 4.1. Time of Fog Onset at TTS for the 36 Fog Events (Visibility less than 7 miles). ......... 13 Figure 4.2. Time of Fog Onset at TTS for the 36 Fog Events (Visibility less than 5 miles). ......... 14 Figure 4.3. Fog Onset for the period 1986 - 1990 (Visibility less than 7 miles, 335 events).......... 14 Figure 4.4. Fog Onset at TTS for the period 1986 - 1990 (Visibility less than 5 miles, 267 events). .......................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 4.5. Time of Fog Dissipation at TTS for the 36 Fog Events (Visibility less than 7 miles). 15 Figure 4.6. Time of Fog Dissipation at TTS for the 36 Fog Events (Visibility less than 5 miles). 15 Figure 4.7. Time of Fog Dissipation at TTS for the period, 1986 - 1990, (Visibility less than 7 miles), 335 Fog Events. ................................................................................................. 16 Figure 4.8. Time of Fog Dissipation at TTS for the period, 1986 - 1990, (Visibility less than 5 miles) 267 Fog Events. .................................................................................................. 16 Figure 4.9. Surface Wind Direction at Time of Fog Onset at TTS (Visibility less than 7 miles, 36 Fog Events). .................................................................................................................. 17 Figure 4.10. Surface Wind Speed at Time of Fog Onset at TTS (As Above). .................................. 17 Figure 4.11. Wind Speed at the 492 foot Level at Tower 313 at Time of Fog Onset (As the Earlier Figure). .......................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 4.12. Time of Fog Onset at TTS for the Advection Events. .................................................. 19 Figure 4.13. Time of Fog Dissipation at TTS for the Advection Events. ......................................... 19 Figure 4.14. Surface Wind Direction at Time of Fog Onset at TTS for the Advection Events. ....... 20 Figure 4.15. Surface Wind Speed at Time of Fog Onset at TTS for the Advection Events. ............. 20 Figure 4.16. Time of Fog Onset at TTS for the Pre-Frontal Events. ................................................. 22 Figure 4.17. Time of Fog Dissipation at TTS for the Pre-Frontal Events. ........................................ 22 Figure 4.18. Surface Wind Direction at Time of Fog Onset at TTS for the Pre-Frontal Events. ...... 23 Figure 4.19. Surface Wind Speed at Time of Fog Onset at TTS for the Pre-Frontal Events. ........... 23 v ENSCO Figure 4.20. .................................................................................. Fog Stability Index (FSI) for All Events. 26 Figure 4.21. ............................................................ Calculated Values for FSI and FSI313 for 27 Events. 26 Figure 4.22. Fog Stability Index for Advection Events. .................................................................... 27 Figure 4.23. Fog Stability Index for Pre-Frontal Events . ................................................................. 27 Figure 5.1. Example of the McBasi Fog Precursor Graphic Display. ............................................. 29 Figure 5.2. Example of McBasi Program FSI output. ..................................................................... 30 Figure 5.3. Example of McBasi Program FSI313 output. ............................................................... 31 Figure 5.4. Example of McBasi Program FSINGM output. ............................................................ 31 Figure 5.5. Step One of the Fog Decision Tree ............................................................................... 33 Figure 5.7. Step Three of the Fog Decision Tree (Pre-Frontal Type) ............................................. 35 Figure 5.8. Step Three of the Fog Decision Tree (Advection Type) ............................................... 36 Figure 5.9. Step Three of the Fog Decision Tree (Radiation Type) ................................................ 37 Figure 7.1. Surface Analysis for 20 January 1990 at 1200 UTC. ................................................... 42 Figure 7.2. Surface Analysis for 21 January 1990 at 1200 UTC .................................................... 44 Figure 7.3. CCAFS Sounding at 1115 UTC on 20 January 1990 ................................................... 45 Figure 7.4. CCAFS Sounding at 1115 UTC on 21 January 1990 ................................................... 45 Figure 7.5. CCAFS 54 ft Wind Tower Data for 0700 - 1100 UTC on 21 January 1990, See Figure 2 for Tower Locations ....................................................................................... 46 Figure 7.6. Surface Analysis on 7 February 1989 at 1200 UTC ..................................................... 48 Figure 7.7. CCAFS Sounding at 1030 UTC on 7 February 1989 ..................................................
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