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US Policy Scan 2017 dentons.com US Policy Scan 2017 January 3, 2017 Our government rests in public opinion. Whoever can change public opinion, can change the government, practically just so much. Abraham Lincoln — December 10, 1856 Table of contents Washington overview 4 Homeland Security 52 2017 Congressional Calendar 7 Immigration 55 Senate outlook 10 International Relations 58 House overview 16 Supreme Court 61 Agriculture 18 Tax 65 Budget and Appropriations 21 Telecommunications 68 Canada-US cross border issues 26 Trade 71 Climate 29 Transportation and Infrastructure 74 Defense 32 Tribal Affairs 77 Education 35 2017 Dentons 50 State Policy 80 Energy 38 Freshman members of the 115th Congress 108 Federal Debt Limit 41 Dentons’ Public Policy and 118 Regulation Practice Financial Services and Banking 44 Health Care 49 2 dentons.com dentons.com 3 US Policy Scan I 2017 Washington overview The 115th Congress kicks off on January 3 with Republicans in control of both the legislative and regulatory agenda in Washington -- at least as much as a party without the magical 60 votes in the Senate can be. What was unimaginable for GOP leaders on election day is now tantalizing close, but only if President-elect Trump and Congressional Republicans can get and stay on the same page. Whether or not the new President and years was simply the Congressional authority available to them to Congressional Republicans will be Republican wish list is now squarely pursue their goals. Under Majority able to work together to implement within the realm of the possible. It Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the most of their respective agendas, involves such issues as undoing much Senate is expected to use Budget there is no doubt that they share of Dodd-Frank; reversing the Obama Reconciliation, a parliamentary tactic a goal of reversing much of the administration’s climate change that only requires a simple majority work of the Obama administration. agenda; making fundamental changes in the Senate to end debate, as The current president’s legacy is in immigration policy designed to part of the effort to force the more surely under siege and it will be strengthen the border and curb illegal controversial measures through the illuminating and instructive to see immigration; moving away from Senate floor and to the President’s how hard Senate Minority Leader global trade deals and toward bilateral desk. Beginning within minutes of Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and other agreements; substantially increasing his January 20 inauguration, the Congressional Democrats will be defense spending while getting rid new tenant of the Oval Office also willing to work to protect the former of the sequester and ending the is expected to use his pen to undo president’s achievements. policy of parity between defense and Obama Administration Executive domestic discretionary spending Orders and force the review of To that end, January will be the start increases; reforming the tax code regulations the prior administration of a very busy first few months of the perhaps through a border adjustment put into law. new Congress as the Congressional tax, nominating conservative judges Republican agenda is loaded. It starts to serve on the Supreme Court The coin of the realm in Washington with repealing Obamacare, although and all across the Federal bench; remains floor time in the Senate. it’s not yet clear how long a transition and making profound changes to There is no more precious commodity period Republicans will propose. federal personnel practices, including to an Administration’s agenda. When It also remains to be determined withdrawing various protections from one reviews the President-elect’s whether or when Republicans will offer federal employees, to make it easier agenda, pairs it with the agenda a replacement alternative for those to fire or discipline those employees of the House and Senate leaders, who will lose insurance coverage whose performance is considered and adds into the mix the left-over when Obamacare is repealed. unacceptable or substandard. appropriations work from the 114th Congress that still must be addressed, Once Obamacare is addressed, the Republicans will use all the one quickly realizes that the 115th candidates for legislative action are parliamentary and executive Congress is setting up to be one virtually endless as what for many 4 dentons.com US Policy Scan I 2017 of the busiest in recent memory. beginning to see this in the debate on for when they stood for election. Notice we said busiest, we didn’t say surrounding the repeal of ObamaCare, We will likely see similar fissures productive, because the Democratic as GOP members in both chambers surrounding immigration reform, trade Senate Minority, particularly those begin to question the necessity policy and tax reform to name a few. Democratic Senators in states that for immediately repealing with no As is true in all things, the devils are in President-elect Trump carried and replacement bill ready for floor the details. who are up for reelection in 2018, will consideration. Moreover, if President have significant sway over how much Trump elects early in his term to offer We’ve added the chart below as a of this aggressive agenda finds its way anything that looks like the massive guidepost for what currently looks to to the president’s desk. infrastructure proposal he spoke of be in the realm of the possible for the during the presidential campaign, President-elect and his Republican It is also critical to consider that not we will see an early test of whether colleagues. We would suggest that all Republicans, and this is especially the conservative core of the House you “buckle up” as the rhetoric, pace true in the Senate, are necessarily in Republican conference view the and tweets coming out of Washington favor of the sweeping agenda the Trump spending proposals as a bridge are likely to be at break neck speed in President-elect proposes. We are too far and not what they signed the coming months. Trump Campaign Promises Don’t need Congress Might need Congress Needs Congress Approve Keystone XL pipeline Stop funding for “santuctuary cities” Repeal and replace Obamacare Cancel payment on UN climate Renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA Repeal Dodd Frank programs Choose Supreme Court Nominee Impose tarrifs on companies moving Build a wall overseas Act against foreign trade abuses Deport undocumented immigrants End Common Core who have commited crimes Freeze Federal hiring Pass a security bill Label China a currency manipulator Cut taxes Leave Trans-Pacific partnership Pass an infrastructure bill Limit federal regulations Pass an ethics bill Overturn protections for certain Restrict lobbying by former undocumented immigrants members of Congress Propose term limits for Congress Pass a child care bill Roll back environmental regulations Pass a law enforcement bill Suspend immigration from Confirm a new Justice (Senate only) “terror prone regions” Tighten lobbying restrictions on Term limits for Congress Executive Branch employees dentons.com 5 US Policy Scan I 2017 2017 congressional calendar House and Senate scheduled to be in session Senate scheduled to be in session House scheduled to be in session January February March Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 29 30 31 26 27 28 26 27 28 29 30 31 April May June Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 01 01 02 03 04 05 06 01 02 03 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 23/30 24 25 26 27 28 29 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 July August September Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 01 01 02 03 04 05 01 02 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 23/30 24/31 25 26 27 28 29 27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 October November December Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 01 02 03 04 01 02 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 29 30 31 26 27 28 29 30 24/31 25 26 27 28 29 30 6 dentons.com US Policy Scan I 2017 2017 Legislative and Regulatory Calendar Legislative Regulatory Other January February March Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 29 30 31 26 27 28 26 27 28 29 30 31 April May June Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 01 01 02 03 04 05 06 01 02 03 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 23/30 24 25 26 27 28 29 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 July August September Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 01 01 02 03 04 05 01 02 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 23/30 24/31 25 26 27 28 29 27 28 29 30 31 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 October November December Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 01 02 03 04 01 02 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 29 30 31 26 27 28 29 30 24/31 25 26 27 28 29 30 Jan.
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