PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: MAINE, , NORTH DAKOTA, SOUTH CAROLINA, and VIRGINIA

PRIME-ARY Perspectives is a series that will give you an overview of the most noteworthy results from each state's primary election, focusing on congressional districts that are likely to be most competitive in November, as well as those that will have new representation in 2019 because of retirements.

As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us with questions!

MAINE

Yesterday, Maine became the first state in the country to use a "ranked- choice" voting system. The system allows for voters to rank the candidates from favorite to least favorite. If one candidate gets 50% + 1 vote, everything proceeds as usual; if not, vote counters gradually eliminate candidates with fewer votes. As candidates are eliminated, each vote they received goes to the whomever the individual voter chose as their next favorite candidate. This process goes on until there are two candidates and whichever one has the most votes is declared the winner. This process has earned the voting system the alternate moniker of the "instant-runoff" system. The state's deeply unpopular governor, Paul LePage (R), has threatened to refuse to certify the primary results, calling the new system "the most horrific thing in the world."

This year, Maine will hold elections for all of its statewide races, one Senate seat, and its 2 seats in the House of Representatives. GUBERNATORIAL

Gov. Paul LePage won reelection in 2014, at least partially because an independent candidate won 8.4% of the vote. This election is one of the reasons that the state transitioned to its ranked-voting (as described above). LePage has feuded with the state's legislature and the will of the voters in his own state - he has refused to implement the state's Medicaid expansion that passed overwhelmingly. The race is considered a "TossUp" by Cook Political Report. Shawn Moody (R) Moody was able to avoid getting caught up in the state's new voting system by winning 56.2% of the primary vote. A self-made millionaire who founded a collision repair chain, Moody ran as someone with close ties to the current governor (with the governor's daughter as his spokeswoman). Moody ran on few policy specifics and will likely have some difficulties with the general electorate after tying himself so close to LePage

Janet Mills (D) or Adam Cote (D) Unlike their Republican counterpart, none of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates were able to 50%+1 to avoid getting into the ranked-choice voting system. Janet Mills was the highest vote-getter with 32.5%, followed by Adam Cote with 28.4%. Mills is the current Maine Attorney General and has also served in the state legislature and as a district attorney. Cote is a twenty-year military vet who ran primarily on improving the state's economy and encouraging job growth.

SENATE

All candidates ran uncontested in the Senate primary yesterday, and this seat is almost certain to remain in Sen. Angus King's hands. An Independent who caucuses with the Democrats, King will face Zak Ringelstein (D) and Eric Brakey (R). Both those candidates are relatively unknown with little money.

ME-02

Maine's 2nd congressional district encompasses almost 80% of the state's land mass and is the 2nd most rural district in the U.S. The district had voted Democratic in presidential elections since 1992 until President Trump won 51% of the vote there last year. Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) is running for his 3rd term in November but will face a tough race from whichever Democrat makes it out of the primary. The race is rated "Leans Republican" and has a Partisan Voter Index of R+2.

Jared Golden (D) or Lucas St. Clair (D) By early this morning, neither Golden or St. Clair had secured the necessary votes to avoid the ranked-voting system, though Golden was close (with 49.6% of the vote). Golden is a member of the Maine state legislature from Lewiston and is a veteran (and widely considered the best option to beat Poliquin in November). St. Clair, who is a nonprofit executive ran as a progressive in this race.

NEVADA Nevada will be one of the most-watched states come November. Democrats made significant inroads in the state in 2016, and its Senate seat is one of the most likely to change hands in 2016. Additionally, it will feature a very competitive gubernatorial race, and two open House seats (because their current representatives are seeking higher office).

GUBERNATORIAL

Nevada's current Governor, Brian Sandoval, is barred from running for reelection due to term limits, leaving his seat open for a Democrat to win the seat for the first time since Bob Miller held the seat in 1999.

This is considered a "toss-up" election by the Cook Political Report, so this race will be worth keeping an eye on.

Adam Laxalt (R) . Adam Laxalt, the current Nevada Attorney General, will try to prevent that from happening after winning blowing soundly defeating a field of Republicans in the primary. Laxalt, age 39, is running primarily on a platform that emphasizes continues job creation and strong economic growth, as well as education reform which he has referred to as "the civil rights issue of this time."

Steve Sisolak (D) Laxalt's opponent in the general election will be Steve Sisolak who had a much tougher primary race. Sisolak, who is backed by former Sen. , is running on a platform that focuses on improved healthcare, better access to college education, and reforming public schools to decrease class size while increasing funding for schools supplies.

SENATE

Dean Heller will face a tough reelection campaign this fall after easily winning his primary against four Republican challengers Tuesday night. Heller is the only incumbent Republican senator running for reelection in a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, making him the top target for Democrats hoping to gain Senate seats in 2018.

The Cook Political Report ranks this race as a "toss-up", so every vote will count this November as Heller will try to convince an increasingly shrinking number of swing voters that he deserves another six years in the Senate. (D) Jacky Rosen, the current representative from Nevada's 3rd Congressional District, will be the Democratic nominee. First elected to Congress in 2016, Rosen is running on a platform that includes better compensation for school teachers, increased investment in infrastructure, and lowering interest rates on student loans.

NV-03

Freshman Congresswoman Jacky Rosen has chosen to vacate her seat to challenge Republican , leaving a vacancy in Nevada's 3rd District this election cycle. Rosen won the district by a mere 6,000 votes in 2016, making this an incredibly competitive district. This district is nearly 70% white 7.6% black, nearly 12% Asian, and 15.4% Hispanic and has proven to be very competitive in past years.

Danny Tarkanian (R) Danny Tarkanian will be representing the Republicans after winning his primary with nearly 45% of the vote. Tarkanian has worked as a businessman and an attorney, and has run for office several time before, including earlier this year when he tried to primary Dean Heller before ultimately dropping out to run for the 3rd district. He has been endorsed by Sarah Palin and Steve Bannon, thus cementing his status as a challenger to the more traditional Republican establishment.

Susie Lee (D) Tarkanian's opponent in the general election will be Democrat , a native of . Lee has worked on a variety of philanthropic issues, including attempts to alleviate homelessness and reduce the amount of high school students that drop out. Her campaign platform reflects her philanthropy, and she will be a tough challenger to Tarkanian in November in another "toss-up" district.

NV-04

Nevada's 4th Congressional District is a "flip district" in the truest sense of the phrase; it has flipped parties every election since its creation after the 2010 census. The current representative, , has been forced into retirement after serving a single term in Congress, thus opening this district open for two "new" challengers. Notably, Kihuen won his last election by only about 10,000 votes, making this a very competitive year in Nevada's congressional races.

Steven Horsford (D) has won the Democratic Primary after beating several challengers Tuesday night. Horsford is a familiar face in Nevada's 4th District, as he formerly represented the district from 2013-2015, and lost his reelection bid in 2014. He is a native of Las Vegas, and is running on a platform that promotes clean energy initiatives and focuses on apprenticeship programs for recent high school graduates.

Cresent Hardy (R) Horsford's opponent, , is another friendly face to the residents of Nevada's 4th district - not to mention Steven Horseford - as he also formerly representatived the district. Hardy served in Congress from 2015-2017, and lost to Kihuen in the 2016 election. For the second time in 4 years, Hardy and Horseford will be running against each other for a seat in must-follow election cycle.

NORTH DAKOTA

North Dakota will have two important statewide races in November- one for a U.S. Senate seat and the other for its At- Large House seat. President Trump won this state in 2016 with 63% of the vote and North Dakota has a PVI Score of R+16.

SENATE

Incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) will be running for her second term in senate this year. She was elected in 2012, defeating Rick Berg with 50.5% of the vote. She will be in a tightly contested race for a seat that is viewed as a Toss-up and a must win for Democrats hopes of taking back the Senate.

Kevin Cramer (R) Rep. Kevin Cramer won the Republican nomination and after serving three terms in the house will be running against Sen. Heitkamp to win a senate seat for the Republicans. Cramer will be a formidable opponent for Heitkamp in a race that is critical in deciding who will control the Senate.

ND-AT LARGE

North Dakota's safe-Republican seat will be up for election in November because Rep. Kevin Cramer has decided to vacate the seat to run against Sen. Heitkamp in the Senate race. Kelly Armstrong (R) North Dakota state Senator Kelly Armstrong won the Republican nomination and will face off against Schneider. Armstrong defeated former Marine Tiffany Abentroth and former North Dakota State football player Paul Schaffner. Armstrong will hope to take over the seat held by Rep. Kevin Cramer who will run for Senate. Armstrong is a strong favorite to win as Cramer has previously won the seat by 10 or more points.

March Schneider (D) Former state Senate minority leader Mac Schneider ran uncontested to represent the Democratic ticket. Schneider brands himself as a "North Dakota independent" who can work across the aisle. Schneider faces a tough challenge in a state that Trump won by 36 points.

SOUTH CAROLINA

Yesterday evening there were quite a few noteworthy takeaways from the Palmetto State's primary. Probably the most stunning outcome from yesterday's multistate primaries was incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford's (R-SC) loss to state representative Katie Arrington, marking the second incumbent House Republican to lose in a primary following Rep. Robert Pittenger (R-NC) last month. Former Governor Nikki Haley's successor, incumbent Henry McMaster, also received a tough primary challenge from Greenville businessman John Warren, ultimately sending that race to a runoff.

Candidates who failed to secure 50%+1 last night will head to a runoff on June 26. GUBERNATORIAL

Incumbent Henry McMaster failed to secure a 51% majority on the Republican side, sending him to a runoff against John Warren on June 26. McMaster has still yet to win a statewide race for governor, as he succeeded former Governor Nikki Haley when she was confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in January 2017. The second, third, and fourth place vote-getters far exceeded McMaster's 154,000, leading to a runoff outcome that's anything but certain. McMaster is a close Trump ally who, as lieutenant governor, was one of nation's first politicians to endorse Trump early in the 2015 primaries.

Republican Run-Off As mentioned, no candidate got the required votes to bypass a runoff. Upstate businessman and Marine Corp veteran John Warren will face off against incumbent Henry McMaster in just two weeks. Warren, who was largely unknown in the state just months ago, has branded himself as the "true outsider" against the establishment candidate. Warren as already attacked McMaster for his failure to fix the state's infrastructure, ultimately dubbing him a "political insurgent attacking the taxpayers" in Columbia. Catherine Templeton, who received third place in the Republican primary, engaged in a rather contentious primary against Warren during the late weeks of the campaign. While her supporters were also largely attracted to her "outsider" status, it remains to be seen whether her supporters will coalesce around Warren to defeat McMaster.

James Smith (D) While historically a safe race for Republicans in the general election, national Republicans shouldn't sleep on the South Carolina governor race. Columbia native, decorated Afghan War veteran, and former Statehouse Minority Leader James Smith won a landslide 61% victory against two much more liberal candidates. In recent months, Smith strengthened his candidacy by announcing the addition of Rep. Mandy Powers Norrell to the ticket as candidate for lieutenant governor. Norrell, a Lancaster native and member of the South Carolina House of Representatives, is highly regarded by even her Republican colleagues in the Statehouse, several of whom have recently publicly commended her professionalism and overall camaraderie. High turnout on the Democratic side and strong anti-McMaster sentiment on the Republican side could very well be the perfect recipe for Democrats to win over the governor's mansion for the first time in 20 years.

SC-01

. Despite having a Cook PVI Score of R+10, National Democrats are eyeing this seat as a possible pick-up opportunity in November, being recently moved from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" on Cook's Political Report. The district encompasses the city of Charleston and its urban surroundings, also stretching along the coastline south to Beaufort and Hilton Head Island.

Katie Arrington (R) In probably the most significant upset of the day, State Representative Katie Arrington defeated incumbent and member of the House Freedom Caucus, Mark Sanford. It's unclear whether Arrington benefited from a late afternoon tweet from President Trump, who fully endorsed her and suggested Sanford was "better off in Argentina", alluding to a 2009 scandal when Sanford was governor. During the campaign, Arrington distinguished herself as a Trump loyalist, jabbing Sanford who has publicly expressed his reservations with the president on multiple issues. A native of the Lowcountry, Arrington has also served on the board of directors of the Charleston Defense Contractor Association and as the co-chair of the Navy League USCGC Hamilton Commissioning Fundraising committee.

Joe Cunningham (D) A construction lawyer by trade, 35-year old Joe Cunningham won an overwhelming 71% of the Democratic vote share in SC-01 Cunningham received an important endorsement from the longtime former mayor of Charleston, Joe Riley.

SC-04

The upstate South Carolina district includes the cities of Greenville and Spartanburg, and has become dependably Republican, with a Cook PVI Score of R+15. Both the Democratic and Republican primaries will head to runoffs.

Republican Run-Off In a race that included 13 Republicans to succeed Trey Gowdy, the retiring chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, former State Senator Lee Bright took the largest share of the vote with 25%. The former state senator has gained statewide notoriety for controversial positions, being one of the very few Republicans to vote in favor of the confederate flag remaining on statehouse grounds following the Mother Emanuel massacre in Charleston. Bright was ultimately ousted from his senate seat in 2016 when losing his primary to former state Rep. Scott Talley, who was backed by then-governor Nikki Haley. Haley endorsed Bright's opponent largely in response to Bright's introduction of a bill that would track refugees and also one that closely mirrored North Carolina's transgender bathroom legislation.

William Timmons won a close second in yesterday's primary, receiving 19% of the vote. The 34-year old Greenville native and state senator was one of Marco Rubio's "South Carolina Grassroots Leaders" during the 2016 presidential campaign. Earlier in May, Timmons received an official endorsement form the Florida Senator on Twitter. Bright's provocative reputation could lead Timmons to a victory if he can get Republican primary voters to coalesce around him.

Democratic Runoff The top two Democrats in SC-04 will also be facing off in a runoff on June 26. Doris Turner, who edged Brandon Brown by just a few hundred votes, is a Greenville County accountant with a 40- year business background. On her website she cited the tax reform bill passed earlier in 2017 as ultimately driving her to run for Congress, calling it a "tailor-made tax cut for ." Businessman Brandon Brown will face off with Doris Lee Turner in an extremely uphill battle to flip the deep red Republican stronghold of SC-04. A Greenville native, Brown founded the Historical Black College and University Sports Classic, which has contributed more than $200,000 to institutions across the Southeast.

VIRGINIA

Virginia is a purple state that is quickly turning blue. It was the only southern state to vote for Clinton in 2016 and its Democratic candidates for statewide office routed their Republican counterparts last year. A number of the state's House seats are considered susceptible to Democratic takeovers, and VA-10, which is currently represented by Congresswoman Barbara Comstock (R) is rated as one of the most likely flips in the country.

Democratic women did especially well in the state's primaries last night. They will represent the party in each of the seats that Democrats view as prime pick-up opportunities. SENATE

Sen. Tim Kaine (D) looked to have a relatively easy reelection before last night, and the Republican primary results might have made that result even more of a certainty. As part of the 2016 Democratic Presidential ticket, Kaine won statewide and was elected in 2012 with 52.9% of the vote. The race is rated as "Solid D" by the Cook Political Report.

Corey Stewart (R) Stewart, a member of the Prince William County Supervisors, came out of the three-way Republican Senate primary, defeating E.W. Jackson and Nick Freitas. The native Minnesotan is best known for his defense of Confederate monuments and stating that white supremacists got too much blame after the tragic events in Charlottesville. Several big-name Republicans expressed disillusionment that Stewart would be the Party's candidate in November and the National Republican Senate Committee has not yet decided whether they will give him funding. Stewart is already drawing comparison to past Republican Senate candidates like Todd Akin and Christine O'Donnell, and Stewart's inflammatory rhetoric make haunt party leaders across the country.

VA-02

Virginia's 2nd district has a distinctly military flare, as it includes the largest Navy base in Norfolk. Rep. Scott Taylor (R), a former Navy SEAL, is currently in his first term. The district is rated "Lean Republican" and has a PVI of R+3. Elaine Luria (D) Elaine Luria, a former Navy commander, was victorious in her primary yesterday. Luria is a former Surface Warfare Officer, currently owns the Mermaid Factory - a small business. She was the choice of national democrats who saw her as the best opportunity to flip the district.

VA-05

This district would normally not be competitive. However, recent turmoil may lead to an interesting result in November. Several weeks ago Rep. Tom Garrett, who was serving his first term, announced that he was resigning due to alcoholism after several bizarre incidents and press accounts. Because of his decision, the district has gone from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."

The district is the state's largest by area and includes the city of Charlottesville.

Leslie Cockburn (D) Cockburn was chosen by Democrats at their party convention earlier this year. She isformer investigative journalist for outlets including CBS and NBC, and has produced a number of documentaries for PBSF rontline. She is running on a relatively progressive platform.

Denver Riggleman (R) When Rep. Garrett resigned, Republicans were forced to act quickly to replace him. They chose Denver Riggleman, a former Air Force intelligence officer and craft distillery owner. Riggleman has promised to join the House Freedom Caucus if he is elected, and he leans libertarian.

VA-06

When House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R) announced he would retire this year, it set off a scrum to replace him. The district, which Goodlatte never won with less than 60% of the vote, is considered to be reliably Republican. It has a PVI of +13 but Democrats see an outside chance to win here if there is, in fact, a wave election in November.

Ben Cline (R) During the May Republican Convention, Bob Cline was chosen to represent the party. A current member of the Virginia House of Delegates from Rockbridge, Cline also worked as a member of Rep. Goodlatte's staff. Cline will be the favorite in November.

Jennifer Lewis (D) Lewis will face an uphill battle for victory in November. The 6th district is the most reliably Republican in the state, and she is running on a very progressive platform. Lewis, who founded Friends of Augusta, works with mentally ill adults who are transitioning from in- patient care back into society. She is running on Medicare For All and to make renewable energy infrastructure a higher priority.

VA-07

This district encompasses much of central Virginia, running from the Richmond suburbs to Culpeper and Rappahannock Counties. Rep. Dave Brat (R), who made news several years ago by knocking of then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, is running for reelection in this "Lean Republican" district with an R+6 PVI. A flip to Democrats in 2018 in the 7th District would indicate a very good election night for Democrats.

Abigail Spanberger (D) Last night, Spanberger won the right to take on Rep. Brat in November. A former CIA officer, Spanberger won her primary by defeating Dan ward, a former Marine pilot. She grew up in the district, Spanberger has said that she will run on the rising costs and increasing healthcare premiums.

VA-10

VA's 10th District is considered a "Tossup" and one of the most likely to flip from Republican to Democratic hands in November. 2-term incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) faced a challenger in her primary who ran on the fact that she was not sufficiently supportive of President Trump and managed to win almost 40% of the vote. That fact, taken in conjunction with the districts D+1 PVI and the fact that almost all of the state Assembly districts flipped to Democrats in last year's election, do not bode well for her in November.

Jennifer Wexton (D) Wexton was able to win handily in her very crowded 6-way primary, earning 41.8% of the vote. Currently a member of the Virginia state senate, Wexton is viewed by many as the Democrat's best candidate to take on Comstock. She ran on her endorsements from Gov. Northam and the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. Wexton is a former federal prosecutor.

Prepared by Casie Daugherty, Owen Taylor, Sam Lane, and Kevin Klikenberg

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