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PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: MAINE, NEVADA, NORTH DAKOTA, SOUTH CAROLINA, and VIRGINIA

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PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: MAINE, NEVADA, NORTH DAKOTA, SOUTH CAROLINA, and VIRGINIA PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: MAINE, NEVADA, NORTH DAKOTA, SOUTH CAROLINA, and VIRGINIA PRIME-ARY Perspectives is a series that will give you an overview of the most noteworthy results from each state's primary election, focusing on congressional districts that are likely to be most competitive in November, as well as those that will have new representation in 2019 because of retirements. As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us with questions! MAINE Yesterday, Maine became the first state in the country to use a "ranked- choice" voting system. The system allows for voters to rank the candidates from favorite to least favorite. If one candidate gets 50% + 1 vote, everything proceeds as usual; if not, vote counters gradually eliminate candidates with fewer votes. As candidates are eliminated, each vote they received goes to the whomever the individual voter chose as their next favorite candidate. This process goes on until there are two candidates and whichever one has the most votes is declared the winner. This process has earned the voting system the alternate moniker of the "instant-runoff" system. The state's deeply unpopular governor, Paul LePage (R), has threatened to refuse to certify the primary results, calling the new system "the most horrific thing in the world." This year, Maine will hold elections for all of its statewide races, one Senate seat, and its 2 seats in the House of Representatives. GUBERNATORIAL Gov. Paul LePage won reelection in 2014, at least partially because an independent candidate won 8.4% of the vote. This election is one of the reasons that the state transitioned to its ranked-voting (as described above). LePage has feuded with the state's legislature and the will of the voters in his own state - he has refused to implement the state's Medicaid expansion that passed overwhelmingly. The race is considered a "TossUp" by Cook Political Report. Shawn Moody (R) Moody was able to avoid getting caught up in the state's new voting system by winning 56.2% of the primary vote. A self-made millionaire who founded a collision repair chain, Moody ran as someone with close ties to the current governor (with the governor's daughter as his spokeswoman). Moody ran on few policy specifics and will likely have some difficulties with the general electorate after tying himself so close to LePage Janet Mills (D) or Adam Cote (D) Unlike their Republican counterpart, none of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates were able to 50%+1 to avoid getting into the ranked-choice voting system. Janet Mills was the highest vote-getter with 32.5%, followed by Adam Cote with 28.4%. Mills is the current Maine Attorney General and has also served in the state legislature and as a district attorney. Cote is a twenty-year military vet who ran primarily on improving the state's economy and encouraging job growth. SENATE All candidates ran uncontested in the Senate primary yesterday, and this seat is almost certain to remain in Sen. Angus King's hands. An Independent who caucuses with the Democrats, King will face Zak Ringelstein (D) and Eric Brakey (R). Both those candidates are relatively unknown with little money. ME-02 Maine's 2nd congressional district encompasses almost 80% of the state's land mass and is the 2nd most rural district in the U.S. The district had voted Democratic in presidential elections since 1992 until President Trump won 51% of the vote there last year. Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) is running for his 3rd term in November but will face a tough race from whichever Democrat makes it out of the primary. The race is rated "Leans Republican" and has a Partisan Voter Index of R+2. Jared Golden (D) or Lucas St. Clair (D) By early this morning, neither Golden or St. Clair had secured the necessary votes to avoid the ranked-voting system, though Golden was close (with 49.6% of the vote). Golden is a member of the Maine state legislature from Lewiston and is a veteran (and widely considered the best option to beat Poliquin in November). St. Clair, who is a nonprofit executive ran as a progressive in this race. NEVADA Nevada will be one of the most-watched states come November. Democrats made significant inroads in the state in 2016, and its Senate seat is one of the most likely to change hands in 2016. Additionally, it will feature a very competitive gubernatorial race, and two open House seats (because their current representatives are seeking higher office). GUBERNATORIAL Nevada's current Governor, Brian Sandoval, is barred from running for reelection due to term limits, leaving his seat open for a Democrat to win the seat for the first time since Bob Miller held the seat in 1999. This is considered a "toss-up" election by the Cook Political Report, so this race will be worth keeping an eye on. Adam Laxalt (R) . Adam Laxalt, the current Nevada Attorney General, will try to prevent that from happening after winning blowing soundly defeating a field of Republicans in the primary. Laxalt, age 39, is running primarily on a platform that emphasizes continues job creation and strong economic growth, as well as education reform which he has referred to as "the civil rights issue of this time." Steve Sisolak (D) Laxalt's opponent in the general election will be Steve Sisolak who had a much tougher primary race. Sisolak, who is backed by former Sen. Harry Reid, is running on a platform that focuses on improved healthcare, better access to college education, and reforming public schools to decrease class size while increasing funding for schools supplies. SENATE Dean Heller will face a tough reelection campaign this fall after easily winning his primary against four Republican challengers Tuesday night. Heller is the only incumbent Republican senator running for reelection in a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, making him the top target for Democrats hoping to gain Senate seats in 2018. The Cook Political Report ranks this race as a "toss-up", so every vote will count this November as Heller will try to convince an increasingly shrinking number of swing voters that he deserves another six years in the Senate. Jacky Rosen (D) Jacky Rosen, the current representative from Nevada's 3rd Congressional District, will be the Democratic nominee. First elected to Congress in 2016, Rosen is running on a platform that includes better compensation for school teachers, increased investment in infrastructure, and lowering interest rates on student loans. NV-03 Freshman Congresswoman Jacky Rosen has chosen to vacate her seat to challenge Republican Dean Heller, leaving a vacancy in Nevada's 3rd District this election cycle. Rosen won the district by a mere 6,000 votes in 2016, making this an incredibly competitive district. This district is nearly 70% white 7.6% black, nearly 12% Asian, and 15.4% Hispanic and has proven to be very competitive in past years. Danny Tarkanian (R) Danny Tarkanian will be representing the Republicans after winning his primary with nearly 45% of the vote. Tarkanian has worked as a businessman and an attorney, and has run for office several time before, including earlier this year when he tried to primary Dean Heller before ultimately dropping out to run for the 3rd district. He has been endorsed by Sarah Palin and Steve Bannon, thus cementing his status as a challenger to the more traditional Republican establishment. Susie Lee (D) Tarkanian's opponent in the general election will be Democrat Susie Lee, a native of Las Vegas. Lee has worked on a variety of philanthropic issues, including attempts to alleviate homelessness and reduce the amount of high school students that drop out. Her campaign platform reflects her philanthropy, and she will be a tough challenger to Tarkanian in November in another "toss-up" district. NV-04 Nevada's 4th Congressional District is a "flip district" in the truest sense of the phrase; it has flipped parties every election since its creation after the 2010 census. The current representative, Ruben Kihuen, has been forced into retirement after serving a single term in Congress, thus opening this district open for two "new" challengers. Notably, Kihuen won his last election by only about 10,000 votes, making this a very competitive year in Nevada's congressional races. Steven Horsford (D) Steven Horsford has won the Democratic Primary after beating several challengers Tuesday night. Horsford is a familiar face in Nevada's 4th District, as he formerly represented the district from 2013-2015, and lost his reelection bid in 2014. He is a native of Las Vegas, and is running on a platform that promotes clean energy initiatives and focuses on apprenticeship programs for recent high school graduates. Cresent Hardy (R) Horsford's opponent, Cresent Hardy, is another friendly face to the residents of Nevada's 4th district - not to mention Steven Horseford - as he also formerly representatived the district. Hardy served in Congress from 2015-2017, and lost to Kihuen in the 2016 election. For the second time in 4 years, Hardy and Horseford will be running against each other for a seat in must-follow election cycle. NORTH DAKOTA North Dakota will have two important statewide races in November- one for a U.S. Senate seat and the other for its At- Large House seat. President Trump won this state in 2016 with 63% of the vote and North Dakota has a PVI Score of R+16. SENATE Incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) will be running for her second term in senate this year. She was elected in 2012, defeating Rick Berg with 50.5% of the vote.
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