The Next Trend in Design

ARTICLE

by James Woudhuysen

James Woudhuysen, n April 2011, Bruce Nussbaum, one of the foremost advocates of design Professor, I thinking (DT), pronounced it a ‘‘failed experiment’’ (Nussbaum, 2011). Forecasting and After this summary verdict, Nussbaum asked, naturally enough, ‘‘What’s Innovation, next?’’ This article replies to that question. De Montfort Nussbaum’s own reply was interesting. He upheld what he called University, Leicester ‘‘humanistic design,’’ and described it as ‘‘a huge advance in the field.’’ How- ever, he did not define, still less give examples of, humanistic design. Instead, he went on to outline a third concept—‘‘creative intelligence.’’ Around that concept, he plans to publish a book in late 2012. For designers and design managers, having an opinion about trends in design has always been important. In prewar America alone, industrial designers such as Henry Dreyfuss, Walter Dorwin Teague, Raymond Loewy, and Norman Bel Geddes positioned themselves as knowing a thing or two about the future. Fashion design, too, has long been oriented to color forecasting, and trend forecasting in general. Design managers have often pronounced one trend dead and upheld another one. Still, it is a bit new to do both of these things, and then say that a third designerly world view deserves a book. A cursory inspection of trends in the handling of design trends, then, reveals a certain relativism of outlook. Anything goes, pretty much: One projection may be as good as another, and much depends on this or that design manager’s point of view. In other words, design managers both adopt and abandon intellectual trends rather quickly nowadays. Before we suggest what the next trend in design should be, therefore, we should first ask: Just why are trends so trendy these days? Of course, when designers such as Loewy or Bel Geddes pushed through ideas about the future to clients, there was always an element of arbitrariness about their views. In their time, style was of unrivaled importance. The subjective approach of great designers had yet to give way to more organized conceptions of design management, or of the future. How- ever, for all the realities of today’s global production, both design managers and celebrity designers still lack a sensible compass to steer them toward The Next Big Thing in Design. Perhaps, really, two trends in the handling of design trends are at issue here. On the one hand, and certainly over the past 15 years or so, the growing

ª 2012 The Design Management Institute 27 impulse for companies, design man- new trends is today very high. Here alone shows how capricious think- agers, and designers has been to cast the compass spins around. Often ing about trends can be—with busi- the future in terms of design for cor- described as ‘‘futures,’’ and embold- ness managers as well as design porate social responsibility, ethics, ened by the multiple options of sce- managers. lowering adverse impacts on the nario planning, the future here is At least BusinessWeek had environment, and—above all—low- variable, protean, and hard to pin tongue ﬁrmly in cheek. Yet given

ering emissions of CO2. down. Interestingly, too, the spread the alacrity with which design When designers put forward a of multiple, pluralistic conceptions managers uphold and then forget broadly Greenish interpretation of of the future is expressed in the about future trends, it’s worth the future, as a future of sustain- activist form of manifestos for asking: Where do such trends really ability, they suggest a trend of plan- design (though not for design man- come from? How can we forecast etary significance. This story of the agement). Since 1883, more than the next one, and be sure that it future is more imposing than other 60 design manifestos have been won’t simply be a transient fad? grand narratives in design, such as published; and, confirming the Most important: How can we make Modernism, Postmodernism, or an ‘‘depends on your point of view’’ a simple, convincing, intelligent, and orientation to users. mentality, the trend is for more un-faddish new argument for design, The scale of the trend predicted manifestos to be published each which absorbs those merits that DT here—The Future is Green—looks year. No fewer than 35 have come has, but which moves designers on large. Also, advocates of this point out since 2000 (Emerson, 2009). toward a more practical and yet of view feel that, when they uphold The desire to mold the world more ambitious practice? an acceleration of that trend, they is commendable, but most designers are design activists who are morally and design managers lack training How to know when marginal trends right and who will have history on in the analysis of trends, and that move into the mainstream their side. However, the relentless doesn’t help. Worse, design manag- Influential pieces of thought leader- and repetitive subordination of all ers in particular have a weakness ship typically begin, in design as goals and most other anticipated for taking on new management doc- elsewhere, as more or less marginal trends to the demand for sustain- trines in an eclectic and far-too-cozy musings. Two examples, one in the able design suggests that something spirit. Particularly in the United sphere of management and one in is wrong. Steering professionals to States, where Tom Peters’ and the sphere of economics, suggest the Next Trend in Design has been Robert Waterman Jr.’s In Search of how marginal intellectual trends done with a compass that is stuck. Excellence (1982) popularized trendy come to gain popularity. That only Here the future is always just an catchphrases for corporations, happens when their advantages in extension of the present. The trend design managers have drawn upon the realm of ideas seem to be given is: Redouble efforts to save the bestselling management books as an relevance and substance by new earth—against which all other inspiration for thinking about the developments in the real world. trends, whether objective or hoped next trend in design. for, are of little moment. In 1986, just a few years after On the other hand, the willing- Peters and Waterman published ‘‘Stakeholders’’ ness of the design world to pro- their book, BusinessWeek ran a While he was George Bush’s deputy claim and then drop overfamiliar cover story on business fads (see secretary of state, in 2005, current and ill-thought-out lists of many Figure 1; Byrne, 1986). The cover World Bank president Robert

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design projects should, for greater clarity, seek the participation and support of stakeholders. Now, our interest here is not to question the concept of different groups having a stake in a design project—even if this does tend to imply a rather harmonious account of power and inﬂuence in the corporation. Nor can we go into the privileged place that DT accords to users when compared with other alleged stakeholders, such as suppliers, retailers, and employees in research and development (R&D), or employees in marketing. No—our interest in stakeholders lies around the intellectual history of the idea and, particularly, how it gained mass recognition only when the moment was ripe for it. Now at the University of Vir- ginia, R. Edward Freeman is one of the pioneers of what is now known as ‘‘stakeholder theory.’’ As he wrote in the California Management Review in 1983, the original idea emerged in a somewhat obscure way:

The stakeholder notion is indeed a Figure 1. Where were you in 1986? It’s notable that "touchy-feely managers" are still very much deceptively simple one. It says that "in" today…. there are other groups to whom the Zoellick gave a speech on China. He ‘‘stakes’’ alone suggest the force that corporation is responsible in addi- called on that country to go further the idea of ‘‘stakeholder’’ has tion to stockholders: those groups than basic diplomacy in international acquired. It is used in the manage- who have a stake in the actions of affairs and instead become a responsi- ment not only of corporations, but the corporation. The word stake- ble stakeholder, capable of working also of international affairs. holder, coined in an internal memo- with the United States ‘‘to sustain It is used in design manage- randum at the Stanford Research the international system’’ (Zoellick, ment too. One of the unwritten Institute in 1963, refers to ‘‘those 2005). Here, ironically enough, the rules in DT is that managers of groups without whose support the

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organization would cease to exist.’’ Pressures from the world of icantly he does so around two key The list of stakeholders originally objective circumstance gave some issues: science and technology, and included shareowners, employees, legs to what had previously been the environment. In a March 29th customers, suppliers, lenders, and little more than just a subjective idea. message to Congress on science and society. (Freeman and Reed, 1983, The idea of stakeholders, however, technology, Clinton warmly refers p. 89) was still confined to academia. to ‘‘the forums and workshops that Despite Freeman following up his have drawn in thousands of experts At its inception in 1963, there- 1983 article with a book that became and stakeholders to help develop fore, ‘‘stakeholder’’ appeared only in the bible of stakeholder theory (Free- priorities in areas as diverse as fun- a memo at the Stanford Research man, 1984), the Reagan years proved damental science; environmental Institute’s offices in Menlo Park, inhospitable to stakeholders. The technology; and health; safety; and California. idea had to wait for the ‘‘I feel your food research’’ (Clinton, 1995a). So the idea has been around a pain’’ sensitivities of President Bill Within a week, Clinton was long time. How can we trace its Clinton (1993–2001) and Prime talking stakeholders to Congress current force? As Freeman and Minister Tony Blair (1997–2007). again. Referring to the Environmen- Reed note, the stakeholder concept A key year for the mainstream- tal Protection Agency, a regulatory developed only slowly during the ing of ‘‘stakeholder’’ came in 1995. body, he said, ‘‘EPA is embarking late 1960s and early 1970s. How- In Europe, the environmentalist on a new strategy to make environ- ever, in1977 the Wharton School lobby group Greenpeace managed mental and health regulation work of Business began to research the to embarrass Shell into dropping its better and cost less. This new com- concept. By the late 1970s, Freeman plans to dispose of its Brent Spar mon sense approach has the poten- writes, strategic management pro- oil buoy in the North Sea. The tial to revolutionize the way we cesses had to consider ‘‘nontradi- episode vividly confirmed how firms write environmental regulations. tional business problems’’ in terms need to think about constituencies First, EPA will not seek to adopt of ‘‘government, special interest beyond their shareholders, their environmental standards in a vac- groups, trade associations, foreign managers, and their direct custom- uum. Instead, all the affected stake- competitors, dissident shareholders, ers. In Britain, in the same year, holders—representatives of and complex issues such as leading British economist Will industry, labor, State governments, employee rights, equal opportunity, Hutton devoted a whole chapter of and the environmental commu- environmental pollution, consumer his bestselling book The State We’re nity—will be involved from the rights, tariffs, government regula- In to ‘‘stakeholder capitalism.’’ Hut- beginning’’ (Clinton, 1995b). tion, and reindustrialization’’ ton called for the participation of After 1995, the stakeholder (Freeman and Reed, 1983, p. 90). responsible trade unions in regulat- perspective became integrated into Here, in implicitly referring to ing capitalism, and praised Europe U.S. government thinking. A search the corporate and social priorities, as a patron of environmental stan- for ‘‘stakeholder’’ through the online and the tone, of the era of Presi- dards and rules of governance, thus archive of the American Presidency dent Jimmy Carter, Freeman and making it ‘‘the stakeholder com- Project’s excellent record of public Reed do a good job of suggesting pany’’ (Hutton, 1995, p. xxii). papers offers some suggestive results how the concept of stakeholders In America, it was again in (see Table 1). moved from memo to the world of 1995 that we find Bill Clinton Not too much reliance need be ‘‘management science.’’ referring to stakeholders, and signif- put on these numbers. Nevertheless,

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Number of mentions

141477123323287712435

Year

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 09 10

President

William J. Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama

Table 1. Number of mentions of the word ‘‘stakeholder’’ in the public papers of U.S. presidents, 1994–2010. the broad upward trend is clear media investment management, Trend in Design is to develop a enough. Even with George W. information and consultancy, public balanced but critical spirit in Bush, a Republican, use of ‘‘stake- relations and public affairs, relation to the received categories of holder’’ grew toward the end of his branding and identity, healthcare management, innovation, and term; and with Barack Obama, it and specialist communications is design. has gone into overdrive. now directed at internal audiences. The ﬁrst lesson of this brief Making sure that internal Behavioral economics intellectual history is simple enough. audiences are onside is critically In 1970, the British artistic poly- To predict the next trend in design, important in ensuring strategic and math George Melly memorably design managers need to set up an structural messages are transmitted described the increasing domination apparatus to track both mainstream to customers, clients, suppliers, of Britain by pop culture as a and peripheral trends, bearing in mind investors, journalists, analysts, ‘‘revolt into style’’ (Melly, 1970). how changing times can give previously governments and non-governmental We can again, but more brieﬂy, peripheral trends a mainstream status. organizations. (Sorrell, 2002, explore the interplay between ideas The second lesson ought to be p. 30). and circumstance by looking into clear too. Design managers make a the revolt into style conducted by Well: Is tomorrow’s chief mistake when they bandy about behavioral economics in recent audience, or stakeholder, for management categories like ‘‘stake- years. This is a worthwhile exer- communications design really an holder’’ without ever interrogating cise—because one thing design internal one? the category. If they want to predict managers can be reasonably sure When next they try to relate a the next trend in design, they need about as a trend in the future of project or program in design to examine the changing history design is that society will have a management to future trends, and contemporary salience of cate- growing obsession with behavior, design managers would do well to gories like ‘‘stakeholder.’’ For exam- decision making, psychology, and think about the past and the future ple, Sir Martin Sorrell, the chief of the brain.1 evolution of key categories such as the marketing services multinational ‘‘stakeholder.’’ Even the meaning of WPP, noted as early as 2002: a category such as ‘‘innovation’’ has 1For a journalistic account of Paul Zak, one changed enormously over the years. among many recent advocates of ‘‘neuroeco- Well over 50 percent of what we nomics,’’ see Mark Honigsbaum, ‘‘Oxytocin: The chief thing that design Could the ‘trust hormone’ rebond our troubled do for our clients in advertising, managers can do to create the Next world?’’ The Observer, August 21, 2011.

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In October 2008, Alan Green- went farther down the path taken architect,’’ nudging feckless and irra- span, once head of the U.S. Federal by Ellsberg. tional consumers and taxpayers to Reserve Bank, testified to a packed By 1979, after Kahneman make ‘‘informed decisions.’’ meeting of the House of Represen- began a collaboration with Richard The special role given to irra- tatives’ government oversight Thaler, he and Tversky outlined tionality in decision making had committee. He admitted himself just how oddly people make deci- been entertained in the early 1960s, shocked by the ‘‘credit crunch’’ that sions in the face of certainty, proba- and it gained Nobel Laureate status had been encountered that year, bility, losses, and gains. Partly in 2002. But the Byzantine struc- and conceded that he had been par- funded—strangely enough, once ture and eventual collapse of Wall tially wrong simply to leave the reg- more—by the Advanced Research Street around 2008 was necessary ulation of some financial Projects Agency of the U.S. for this previously marginal intellec- instruments to the market. At that Department of Defense, the paper tual trend to become the stuff of moment, as Duke University eco- used the responses of university stu- conversation all over the West. nomics professor Dan Ariely has dents and staff to hypothetical suggested, belief in the ultimate choice problems. It attacked the Critiquing bestseller books on ideas rationality of humans, of organiza- ‘‘rational choice’’ axioms of eco- can help you control the future tions, and of markets crum- nomic conduct applied by Nobel bled—definitively (Ariely, 2009). economists Milton Friedman and To forecast the next trend in The inroads made by behavioral Kenneth Arrow, describing ‘‘several design, design managers must mobi- economics on the conventional sort, classes of choice problems’’ in which lize their critical faculties. They however, began well before Green- preferences ‘‘systematically’’ violated need to situate today’s bestsellers on span’s mea culpa, and at the strang- those axioms (Kahneman and Tver- ideas in a careful historical context, est of places: the conservative sky, 1979). The paper effectively and subject them to an equally care- RAND Corporation, a Cold War overturned the neoclassical frame- ful critique. That way, they can syn- forecasting house based in Santa work in economics, and helped win thesize their own independent Monica, California. There, in 1961, Kahneman a Nobel Prize in 2002. view, the better to impose it, as best Daniel Ellsberg began his later The Nobel Prize meant recog- they can, on the future—rather career as an insider dissenter in nition for those who had discovered than allow the future simply to Washington by flouting some stan- the irrational side of decision mak- impose on them. dard axioms. He proposed that, ing. But for this idea to be pro- A short summary of an argu- when making a decision in the face pelled into the world of mainstream ment with a bestseller on trends, of ambiguity, a person might not economic discussion, a whole Mark Penn and E. Kinney Zal- take what might be the expected upheaval in the world economy had esne’s Microtrends: The Small Forces position—that of ‘‘maximizing a lin- to occur, in the shape of the credit Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes ear combination of pay-offs and crunch. Only since 2008, when the (2007) may help. Penn, worldwide probabilities’’ (Ellsberg, 1961). U.S. economists Richard Thaler chief executive of the PR firm Bur- That proposition significantly and Cass Sunstein published Nudge: son-Marsteller, is a longtime poll- subverted the status quo in eco- Improving Decisions about Health, ster, and larger than life: He has nomic theory. Later in the 1960s, Wealth, and Happiness, has the idea been a key adviser to leaders as two Israeli psychologists, Daniel really grown that the state’s job is varied as Israeli prime minister Kahneman and Amos Tversky, to act as a paternalistic ‘‘choice Menachem Begin, Bill and Hillary

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Clinton, Bill Gates, and Tony Blair. technological innovations (Cowen, five principles that can help us going His book sets about identifying 2011, p. 45). So it was failures in forward. I say ‘‘principles’’ because ‘‘small, intense subgroups,’’ complete the productive parts of the U.S. although these are neglected in with ‘‘needs and wants unmet.’’ In economy that gave mortgages the much of today’s discussion on this cause, its basic thesis is simple: sway they had. America’s money design, they were important to nine- economy stretched way beyond the teenth-century founders of design means of the real economy. Lead- (John Ruskin, William Morris, and The very idea that there are a few ing-edge, world-beating designs and others), and could do with debating huge trends out there, determining technologies, long fielded by Amer- today. We also like principles how America and the world work, is ica over a broad front, were not because, when animating particular breaking down. There are no longer generally seen as a tradition worth positions on design and in design a couple of megaforces [sic] sweeping renewing. With the exception of its management, they represent an us all along. Instead, America and triumphs in the Internet, Cowen activist and designerly effort every the world are being pulled apart by writes, the United States was miss- bit as imposing as the efforts trum- an intricate maze of choices, accu- ing out on a lot of innovation. peted by those who advocate Green mulating in ‘‘microtrends’’—small, Microtrends ignored all this. design, and those who are always under-the-radar forces that can Instead, from ‘‘cougars’’ (older outlining new manifestos for design. involve as little as 1 per cent of the women who date younger men) and population, but which are powerfully on through 81 other market niches, Principle 1: Improve basic design shaping our society. (Penn and Zal- the bite-sized demography of skills esne, 2007, p. xii) Microtrends gave millions an influen- The rise of Chinese, Korean, and For Microtrends, it was the tial capsule guide to a superficial kind Indian designers has very clear impli- default of just 1.7 percent of U.S. of trend watching—not just in the cations for their Western counter- mortgages that, by precipitating the United States and the United King- parts. The basic skills of design will credit crunch, brought the whole dom, but also in Germany and Japan. increasingly become a world com- U.S. economy down (Penn and The moral of this tale for modity—a bit like accountancy skills Zalesne, 2007, p. xiv). design managers is straightforward. have long been part of the taken-for- Microtrends errs because it Small trends can come to be impor- granted baggage of business. As a treats the influence of marginal tant, but they depend on other, result, designers the world over will trends in an unmediated way. We mediating trends for this to happen. have to be very good at differentiat- find here a distant echo of our old More broadly, design managers ing their basic skills from those of friend, the butterfly in the South would do well to collect and suspect other designers. Atlantic that waves its wings and more forecasts of the future and to What do we mean by basic suddenly Affects Everything. What be particularly discriminating about skills? At the very least, we expect Microtrends neglects is a key ‘‘mega- bestselling books on ideas. the ability to force’’: society’s growing fear of risk. In the years before 2008, that d Draw and visualize design ideas, Five principles that can assist in the fear made the United States as a with or without the help of IT future whole and U.S. firms prefer what d Make prototypes that take economist Tyler Cowen calls Looking at the state of design and account of functional, technical, ‘‘dubious financial innovations’’ to designers today, we can derive some and cost requirements

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d Execute design ideas with a take: Tolerance, in design manage- US 3.6 12.3 strong eye to aesthetics ment as elsewhere, involves the UK 4.5 15.9 exercise of powers of discrimination. Although it downplays the Some design portfolios are good, Japan 0.2 23.2 significance of style, Tim Brown’s but too many are not nearly good account of design thinking Germany 2.4 about 7 enough. The struggle for better rightly stresses the importance of France 1.9 13.7 basic skills in design means making visualization, and of prototypes judgments about design. Brazil 6.9 about 30 (Brown, 2009). However, the accent It is time that the design world Russia 9.0 not available above is on active, thoughtful skills revived design’s basic bias to action. of the hand. Even literacy, numer- India 8.4 28.6 It is time that the design world was acy, and communication skills are Indonesia 4.6 40.6 tougher with itself about its core not here, because we are talking competence. China 6.5 negligible about the more fundamental talent S Africa 5.4 11.6 of designing. Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation In pursuit of really high stan- Principle 2: Design for lower prices and Development; Wolfram Alpha. dards in the manipulation of mate- There is no need to overdo the Table 2. Rates of inflation, selected countries, rials and media, the good design issue of inflation today. It is true July 2011 and 1975. managers of the future will welcome that, in 2011, rates of price infla- the end of superstar designers. tion were buoyant in many parts of They will be skeptical about the the world. But inflation today has measurable benefits for firms and more elusive claims of DT—and neither the scale nor the for users. about the equally elusive language pervasiveness that it did in the In fact, there is more to design often used by design schools. For early 1970s—the period of for lower costs. As the London- many years, we have had plenty of ‘‘stagflation,’’ when rates of inflation based strategist Robert Bau has poor theory in design, design man- were high, both West and East (see pointed out, lowering costs is a agement, and design schools. The Table 2). productivity strategy (Bau, 2011). least we can demand of the Next Despite the mixed picture on To qualify as a genuine Next Trend Trend in Design is that we revive inflation today, design managers in Design, cutting costs will mean a interest in the practical craft, the would be wise to put a special commitment to design ideas and trade, of designing. emphasis on achieving quality, but practical systems that improve All around the world, and even at a low cost. productivity, convenience, and the in Asia, there is a cultural sense of Countless companies and use of time. drift—in the realm of design too. customers across the world have It is the business of designers But designers must, to deadline, been forced to tighten belts and not to make more work, but to physically and ⁄or electronically count the pennies. When design obviate more work. In this context, implement their ideas for those managers propose solutions that the idea that designers should ideas to be judged, no matter in slash lifecycle costs, clients sit up engage with labor-intensive technol- which court. and take notice. While DT is rarely ogies in the pursuit of ‘‘green One can be tolerant of different interested in cutting costs, doing jobs’’—making expensive, environ- design solutions. But make no mis- just that is a great way to create mentally conscious goods and

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services for the middle class— firms such as Johnson Controls there is much for the West to gain deserves critical scrutiny.2 International, LEGO, and Albert from the East here. GE’s $1,000 Recycling, for example, should Heijn are becoming adept at getting handheld electrocardiogram device be done through efficient, mecha- various parts of the design process for rural India and its $15,000 porta- nized processes, not as a personal handled in the East. A city such as ble, PC-based, and ‘‘software-centric’’ labor of penance. Similarly, employ- London can play host to design stu- ultrasound medical imaging machines ing manual laborers to ‘‘weatherize’’ dios drawn from Nokia, Nissan, for rural China are now sold in the homes is not as robust a solution as Samsung, and Yamaha, while the United States, where they are stimu- designing and building a new round rest of the United Kingdom hosts lating new applications for such prod- of zero-emissions nuclear reactors. design teams from Black & Decker, ucts (Immelt et al., 2009). Designers and design managers Herman Miller, and Tata. In Japan This transfer of innovation from should take pride in making goods too, a company such as Panasonic East to West is fine so long as neither and services that work well, but are has globalized its management of the East nor the West loses sight of as cheap to buy as possible. Design design; whereas, in the past, Pana- the need to pursue the very best tech- managers always need to keep their sonic’s Japanese offices designed nology and design solutions—every- feet on the ground, in the real pretty much everything the com- where in the world and, sometimes, world of customer preference; and pany made, today Japanese teams regardless of cost. In 2003, Clayton that kind of preference very much develop just 10–20 percent of the Christensen and Michael Raynor, in includes a preference for low prices. items that Panasonic sells in emerg- their book The Innovator’s Dilemma, ing markets (The Economist, 2010). eloquently spoke up for ‘‘good Principle 3: Deepen internationalism Internationalism in the manage- enough’’ ink-jet printers as an innova- While Asian designers know quite a ment of design is a realistic response tion that disrupted the up-market bit about Western culture and to the way the world economy works world of laser printers made by design, Western designers know too nowadays. Yet it is more than that. incumbent companies. Christensen little of the East. That has to change. In the quest for discrimination in and Raynor eulogized products that Whatever the flaws of DT, its orien- design, for great basic skills and low were cheap, simple, convenient, small, tation to users of design, if consis- prices, the internationalist design and portable, even if their perfor- tently followed through, must mean a manager will have little time for mance was low. Yet if ink-jet printers fight for greater insight into the East. cross-border double standards. have their place in the firmament of In part, the need to know more Everyone in the world deserves the properly designed products, so do about and uphold the achievements very best that design can bring. laser printers. With Asia and Africa in of foreign designers stems from the Once more, this principle particular, internationalist design exigencies of globalization. Western demands a critical attitude toward managers have a duty to spell out the current developments. Take, for limitations of second-best.

2A recent survey of the U.S. experience in mak- example, the trend toward reverse In the developed world, govern- ing green jobs, conducted by a liberal and sym- innovation, where lessons from low- ment and nongovernmental organi- pathetic London think tank, concluded that cost designs aimed at emerging mar- zations, educators, media, and ‘‘the US experience shows energy efficiency schemes have struggled to create ‘green jobs,’ kets are touted as the way forward design commentators like to bring both in quantity and quality.’’ See Clare McNeil not just there, but also back in the weak technologies to the Third with Hanna Thomas, ‘‘Green Expectations: Les- sons from the US Green Jobs Market,’’ Institute West. Now, if famous examples set World. The British government for Public Policy Research, July 2011, p. 23. by General Electric are to be believed, and Body Shop founders Gordon

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and Anita Roddick have backed No amount of good design can transmission that are every bit as wind-up radios. From the Schum- make a mosquito net truly effective powerful and universal as those in acher Centre, near Rugby, in the against malaria. The Next Trend in the West? From the holistic point West Midlands of the United King- International Design cannot be con- of view so beloved of DT, it dom, the charity Practical Action descendingly to impose dumbed- should be obvious that, in develop- favors hand-operated water pumps. down designs on the South and the ing countries as elsewhere, energy In Miami, Florida, the One Laptop East. That would be to lower stan- infrastructure ought to be there Per Child Association and in Cam- dards in those regions, and, inadver- not just to relieve the plight of bridge, Massachusetts, the OLPC tently or not, to make their future poor families, but to dynamize Foundation have since 2005 been evolution slow and narrow. For large organizations. on a ‘‘long march from radical the- developing countries to embark on ory to reality’’ to ‘‘create educational more emancipatory options will not Principle 4: Uphold science and opportunities for the world’s poor- be easy; but that’s a prospect for technology est children by providing each child the future much less utopian than What the world needs now is more with a rugged, low-cost, low-power, to go on believing that ‘‘appropriate’’ science and technology, not less. connected laptop with content and or ‘‘intermediate’’ technology is the Every design manager should take software designed for collaborative, way out of their difficulties. that to heart. Where, after the joyful, self-empowered learning.’’3 It is not hard to read the 2011 nuclear accidents at Fukushi- No doubt the intentions behind United Nations’ Millennium Devel- ma, Japan, were the clear-eyed maps these projects are good, but opment Goals as unambitious.5 It integrated with charts of radiation? hopefully they do not herald the is wrong to reflect those goals with Where, after more than 10 years of Next Trend in Design. Design questions for developing countries the Human Genome Project, are managers must recognize that these such as ‘‘How might we find low- the memorable graphic images of it, measures are no substitute for cost alternatives to wood-burning images that both explain and cap- decent national and international stoves in urban slums?’’ or ‘‘How ture the popular imagination? systems of electricity supply, might we create an infant incuba- When did designers last give Men- irrigation, and computerization. tor that does not need an electrical deleev’s Periodic Table the inspired No ‘‘Transition Town,’’ dedicated supply?’’ If this is design thinking, treatments it has had from the to dealing with the challenges of it is a very shallow kind of think- American comic singer and mathe- climate change and peak oil, can ing. The relevant question for matician, Tom Lehrer (in his song give Africans the energy they need.4 developing countries is, rather: ‘‘The Elements,’’ 1959), or the How can we explain the case for, Italian writer and chemist, Primo plan, and help do the design detail Levi (in his book The Periodic 3For more about the OLPC Foundation, see of working, maintainable national Table, 1975)? http://laptop.org/. 4The Transition Towns movement began in systems for energy supply and The Next Trend in Design March 2007 when Totnes, in South Devon, could be about ensuring that England, decided to run its own currency, the new recruits to corporate design Totnes pound, alongside pounds sterling. See http://totnes.transitionnetwork.org/. Transition 5For a critique of the UN Millennium Develop- functions are properly curious initiatives can also be found in Granja Viana, ment Goals, see James Woudhuysen and about science and technology. Yes, Saõ Paulo, Brazil, and in Mpumalanga, South Joe Kaplinsky, Energise! A Future for Energy Africa: see http://www.transitionnetwork.org Innovation (London: Beautiful Books, 2009), designers need to learn more for more information. Chapter 7. history, social psychology, forecast-

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ing. But they make a mistake if they nomena relevant to their profes- trendy to think this, and too vague. affect, in the manner of DT, to be sional practice. Yet they do also This view neglects the very real superior to science and technology. have a duty to explain and advocate physiological changes that set in If they are not attracted to the far-reaching scientific research and once the human body turns 40 romance of R&D, or to the open-ended technological experi- years old. contribution it can make, they mentation. In the West, pressures On the other hand, it is also cannot be designers or design to delay, take fright about, or too superficial to confine older peo- managers fit for a new century. underfund science and technology ple to a stereotype that sees their Designers and design managers deserve resistance. Design managers atrophied experiences from the past need to open up to corporate R&D need to know who their friends as the key to their specificity. It is departments. The remaining skilled are, and should improve their nice that certain British retail chains experts in white coats that the knowledge of scientific and employ old people because of their West can muster deserve a fervent technological trends. generation’s familiarity with how to collaboration, not a dismissive put up a shelf, or because of their competition. These people are not Principle 5: See older people as quick experience of an earlier, more civil geeks, techies, nerds, or code learners kind of customer service. Yet expe- warriors. They are subject to Despite DT’s emphasis on end rience, as Oscar Wilde’s novel The budget cuts, are often heroes, and users, the literature that surrounds Picture of Dorian Grey suggests, is must be learned from. At the same it is weak on older people. Yet in by itself of no ethical value; it is time, designers and design managers Japan, Italy, Germany, and even simply the name we give our mis- need to eschew both glib techno- China, design managers will meet takes. What counts are not just philia and glib technophobia. They an aging population in the years experiences of the past, but also the should interrogate the boosterish and decades to come. Meanwhile, in ability to learn from these, and market populism of Wired in IT, the United Kingdom, the number from mistakes, so as to navigate the and of Grist in matters environmen- of years that 65-year-olds can future adroitly. tal. But they should question, too, expect to live without a disability is Today’s older people possess the pessimistic advocates of a rising very rapidly (see Table 3). not just experiences, but also an ‘‘steady state’’ and even a ‘‘degrowth’’ How should designers inquiring outlook. Through their economy.6 make the best of these kinds of experience, older people can often Designers and design managers trends? find solutions for tomorrow’s prob- need to adopt a discriminating atti- The real point to grasp is that lems faster than young people. tude toward the new technologies, older people today are not ‘‘just as Design managers could start an just as much as they strike the same young as they feel.’’ It is too excellent Next Trend in Design posture in relation to all other phe- once they make a proper, neither starry-eyed nor patronizing, esti- 2000-2 2004-6 2006-8 mate of the talents of older custom- 6Voted the best green think tank of 2011, the Males 8.9 10.2 10.5 ers. They should take seriously, too, Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy (CASSE), in Arlington, Virginia, Females 10.4 10.7 10.9 the talents of older workers who favors a steady-state economy. For its defini- use new designs in the workplace, tion of steady state, the debt it owes E. F. Source: UK Office for National Statistics, 2010. Schumacher, and its concept of ‘‘degrowth,’’ Table 3. Years English 65-year-olds can expect and the talents of older designers as visit http://steadystate.org/. to be free of disability, 2002–2008. employees.

37 Design Management Journal

Conclusion Second, it tries to make pur- Bau, R. (2011). ‘‘The Value of chases cheaper, and sees a role for Design—Deconstructed.’’ Webinar This article has tried to give a hint technology in helping that process recording, May 10. of where trends come from. It has along. Brown, T. (2009). Change by Design: also given some guidance, if not Third, while it can cheapen How Design Thinking Transforms about how the next intellectual products and services, the Next Organizations and Inspires trend will shape up, then certainly, Innovation. New York: Trend in Design refuses to cheapen in a spirit of activism, about what HarperBusiness. the lives of people in emerging design managers ought to be Byrne, J. (1986). ‘‘Business Fads: What’s markets. encouraging as trends in design. In—And Out.’’ BusinessWeek, Fourth, the Next Trend seeks a The Next Trend in Design January 20, pp. 52À61. powerful new alliance with scientists should,wehaveargued,beback-to- Clinton, W. (1995a, March 29). and technologists who want not to basics, counter-inflationary, interna- ‘‘Message to the Congress on ameliorate disease, but eliminate it; tionalist, pro-technology, and pro- Science and Technology.’’ From who want top-class infrastructure The American Presidency Project. older people. This argument is based for all, not Band Aid measures that Available at http://www.presidency. on today’s realities, but seeks to go work around the lack of infrastruc- ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=51167 beyond them. Discontent, as Wilde ture; who want the best, not &st=&st1=#axzz1g1BuVbdI remarked in his play A Woman of second-best. (accessed December 9, 2011). No Importance, is the first step in the Last, the Next Trend in Design Clinton, W. (1995b, April 6). progress of a man or a nation. ‘‘Message to the Congress on orientates to senior citizens as Equally, in the Maxims for Revolu- Environmental Policy.’’ From The active powers, not as passive tionists in his play Man and Super- American Presidency Project. victims. man, George Bernard Shaw observed: Available at http://www.presidency. With this trend, the compass ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=51197 for design is neither stuck in &st=Message+to+the+Congress+ The reasonable man adapts himself stop-the-world environmentalism, on+Environmental+Policy&st1=# to the world; the unreasonable one nor spinning through any number axzz1XTawkXGp (accessed persists in trying to adapt the world of fanciful design futures. Naturally, December 9, 2011). to himself. Therefore all progress the needle of this compass will Cowen, T. (2011). The Great depends on the unreasonable man. change position, with changing Stagnation: How America Ate All the times. But I believe that, right Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern Tough though it may appear to now, it points firmly in the direc- History, Got Sick, and Will be, the perspective set out here tion of a better tomorrow—for (Eventually) Feel Better. New York: could form a simple, convincing, Dutton Books. design, for designers, and for the intelligent, and un-faddish new The Economist. (2010, August 5). world. & argument for the discipline of ‘‘The New Frontier for Corporate Reprint #11061WOU27 design itself. Here’s why: Japan.’’ Available at http://www. First, the perspective puts the economist.com/node/16743435 References accent on the visual and functional (accessed December 9, execution of design, in a way that Ariely, D. (2009). ‘‘The End of Rational 2011). anybody from senior manager to Economics.’’ Harvard Business Ellsberg, D. (1961). ‘‘Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms.’’ Quarterly person in the street can recognize. Review, July-August, pp. 73À84.

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Journal of Economics, 75(4), pp. Melly, G. (1970). Revolt into Style: Pop editor of Design magazine and 643À669. Arts in Britain. London: Allen Lane. cofounded Blueprint magazine Emerson, J. (2009, July 22). ‘‘100+ Nussbaum, B. (2011). ‘‘Design before becoming chief of worldwide Years of Design Manifestos.’’ Social Thinking Is a Failed Experiment. So market intelligence for Philips Design blog. Available at http:// What’s Next?’’ Co.Design, April 6. Consumer Electronics in the backspace.com/notes/2009/07/ Penn, M., Zalesne, E. (2007). Netherlands and director of design-manifestos.php (accessed Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind product designers for Seymour December 9, 2011). Tomorrow’s Big Changes. New York: Powell. Now an independent Freeman, R. (1984). Strategic Twelve. Management: A Stakeholder Sorrell, M. (2002). ‘‘Consumer is king consultant, he has written for many Approach. Cambridge, UK: as producers ﬁght it out.’’ The publications, including Applied Cambridge University Press. Times, February 20. Ergonomics, Computing, Cultural Freeman, R., Reed, D. (1983). Zoellick, R. (2005). ‘‘Whither China: Trends, The Economist, The Institute ‘‘Stockholders and Stakeholders: A From Membership to of Mechanical Engineers Journal, New Perspective on Corporate Responsibility?’’ Remarks to the Long Range Planning, New Civil Governance.’’ California Management National Committee on U.S.-China Engineer, The Times, and The Review, 25(3), pp. 88À106. Relations, September 21. Guardian, and has written two Hutton, W. (1995). The State We’re books, Energise! A Future for Energy In: Why Britain Is in Crisis and Author biography Innovation and Big Potatoes: The How to Overcome It. London: London Manifesto for Innovation.He Vintage. James Woudhuysen is a professor is also a contributor to BBC Radio. Immelt, J., et al. (2009). ‘‘How GE Is of forecasting and innovation at De His clients have included Amadeus, Disrupting Itself.’’ Harvard Montfort University, Leicester, UK. Business Review, October, pp. In 1968, before graduating from the Brother, Geothermal Engineering, 56À65. University of Sussex with a degree International Federation of Kahneman, D., Tversky, A. (1979). in physics, he helped install Automotive Engineering Societies, ‘‘Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Britain’s ﬁrst computer-controlled Orange, O2, Mitsubishi, Navteq, Decision under Risk.’’ Econometrica, car park. He also spent time as Novartis, Roca, Sage, and SAP. 47(2), pp. 263À265.