Egyptian Food Observatory Food Monitoring and Evaluation System
Issue (1) – September 2011
Editorial Board
Introduction Eng. Hany Mahmoud Food problem tops the list of issues facing all countries- Chairman specially developing countries. Successive food crises, motivated concerned parties to examine causes of such crises as well as Dr. Mohamed Ramadan establishing systems which help projecting any given crises in Deputy Chairman the future with the objective of evading or mitigating crises occurrence. Therefore, an interest grew for establishing the Dr. Hussein Abdel Aziz Egyptian Food Observatory which provides tools for monitoring and evaluating the situation of a list of agricultural crops and Center Consultant main food commodities to the Egyptian citizen. In addition, the Observatory develops early warning tools which project future Principal Investigator food crises whether it is triggered locally or consequent to global situation. The series of Observatory publications aim at: 1. Monitoring and following up of the current situation through Dr. Mohamed A. Ramadan tracking the consumption pattern of the vulnerable households, Deputy Manager of Quality & market prices of the agricultural crops as well as commodities Development Department in the selected food basket. 2. Monitoring and following up local crises through tracking consumption, production, and market prices of the agricultural Researcher Team crops as well as commodities in the selected food basket. 3. Identifying the status of food security with special focus on the Ms. Hend Samir poor and most vulnerable groups to poverty risk. In addition, it connects between different dimensions of food security and Mr. Ahmed Soliman production, consumption and prices through the proposed observatory system. Ms. Samar Mahmoud
Ms. Neveen El-Helw Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Mr. Mahmoud Emam Section I: Price Indices of Food Commodities 4 1.1 Indicator of the Monthly Prices Burden 4 World Food Programme 2.1 Indicator of the Accumulated Price Burden 5 Team 3.1 Average Commodity Prices in the Regions 5 4.1 Price Difference Between Urban and Rural Areas 6 Mr. Abdallah Alwardat Section II: Global Market 7 Program Advisor 2.1 Global Prices of Selected Food Commodities 7 2.2 Exchange Rate of the Egyptian Pound Compared to the US Dollar 7 Ms. Noura Abd-Elwahab Section III: Assessment Indicators of the Vulnerable Households 8 Senior Economist 3.1 Demographic Characteristics of the Assessed Households 8 3.2 Income and Expenditure 9 Ms. Riham Abu Ismail 3.3 Vulnerable Households Consumption of Food Commodities 11 VAM / Poverty Officer 3.4 Realizing the Change of Food Commodities' Prices 12 3.5 Adequacy of Commodities Prices to the Egyptian Households 13 Ms. Alaa Zohery 3.6 Ration Cards 14 GIS Specialist Annex (1) 15
2 Egyptian Food Observatory Food Monitoring and Evaluation System
Issue (1) – September 2011
Around 12% of the vulnerable households Executive Summary do not consume subsidized Baladi bread. The most frequently consumed During the first nine months of 2011, total commodities by the vulnerable households cost of the proposed goods basket (annex 1) throughout the month is the group of amounted to L.E 4092.3, with a monthly vegetables, sugar, salt, beans, mixed oil, average of L.E 454.7. tea and rice. Prices of a number of food commodities Prices of fruit, vegetables (except egg plant), explicitly vary between urban and rural legumes (except local beans), oil, ghee, areas of some governorates, mainly: Giza, butter (except mixed oil) are not adequate Gharbiya, Qena and Ismailia. to the vulnerable households. Examining global prices, validated and More than one fifth of the vulnerable successive price increase becomes evident households are not ration cards holders. in a number of important commodities including: corn, rise, poultry and potatoes. Monthly average spending of the vulnerable Needed Actions: households amounted to L.E 623 per Revision of policies targeting the poor month which is L.E 150 per person. This through ration cards. indicates that per capita daily spending To operationalize the role of Consumer come to about L.E 5. Protection Authority and other More than half of the vulnerable monitoring bodies over the markets in households (58%) depend on other sources order to minimize price distortions. of income in addition to their current job. To reconsider importing meat from The sources mainly include assistances abroad in order to control its prices in and philanthropy aid. local market. The income of 78.9% of the vulnerable To reconsider the agricultural policies households does not cover their monthly concerned with the strategic requirements. commodities, specially those that are The vulnerable households resort to mostly used by the poor, in order to avoid borrowing as primary means for covering their price increase in the global market their monthly needs, and assistances and decreased rate of exchange of the serves as the determinant element for Egyptian Pound compared to the US securing food. dollar. The bulletin is concerned with monitoring the cost of buying basket of main food
commodities based on the main measuring unit (kilo/liter/box), variation of prices of such commodities between urban and rural areas, and indicators of evaluating the status of vulnerable household in terms of: volume of expenditure, sufficiency of their income, consumption rate of such commodities, perception of price change of commodities in question, and the coping strategies. The bulletin analysis data based on data derived from several sources including: commodities prices data in the urban areas collected by the Field Monitoring Network affiliated with the Information and Decision Support Center, commodities prices data in the rural areas collected through surveying rural markets in the villages of the selected governorates as part of the current cycle, survey data on assessing the status of the vulnerable households that had been conducted in the first week of September on a sample of the vulnerable Egyptian households (total of 540 households distributed as 54 from each governorate). Selected
Summary First the of governorates in the survey cycle represent the main regions: urban governorates (Cairo Round’s Methodology Round’s and Suez), Lower Egypt (Kafr el Sheikh, Gharbyah, and Ismailia), Upper Egypt (Giza, Asuit, and Qena) and Frontier governorates (New Valley and North Sinai).
3 Egyptian Food Observatory Food Monitoring and Evaluation System
Issue (1) – September 2011 Price Indices of One Section Food Commodities
Indicator of the Monthly Prices 1.1 Figure (1) Burden Indicator of the monthly price burden
By calculating the monthly price burden L.E representing the main measuring unit of 475.0 468.1 the commodities basket subject to 465.0 453.0 measuring, it shows an incremental 455.0 monthly burden of the basket prices in an 445.0 st ascending successive manner starting 1 week-January 2011= 450.0 from June compared with prices of the 435.0 first week of January-2011. This is 425.0 opposite to the fixed position inclined towards decreasing that prevailed during the first five months of the year. Reference line of the monthly burden Total monthly price of the commodities basket Prices increased during the last four Source: Field Monitoring Network, Cabinet-Information and Decision months by total of 4.1%, where August Support Center. experienced an increase rate of 2.4% compared with July, followed by 1.1% in Figure (2) Indicator of the monthly prices burden by September compared with August. different regions Overall, the monthly burden of the prices L.E 500 of the commodities basket recorded highest level this year in September when 485 the difference between prices of September 470
and first week of January amounted to L.E 455 18 in the single basket. In addition, a burden increase occurred 440 consequent to the higher price increase in 425 the urban governorates.
Reviewing macro economic indicators of Urban governorates Lower Egypt the prices shows that the inflation general Upper Egypt Frontier governorates level reached 1.1% in August coupled with Reference line of the monthly burden successive increases in the Price Index of Source: Field Monitoring Network, Cabinet-Information and Decision food and drink to attain a rate of increase Support Center. amounting to 10.8% during the first eight months of this year. Figure (3) Figure (4) Food and Drink Price Index1 Monthly Inflation Rate1 (point) (%) 1.4 135 1.5 1.2 130.7 1.1 130 125.6 127.5 1 1.0 125 118.0 120 0.5 115 110 0
1Reference month (January 2010=100 points). 1Reference month (January 2010=100 %). Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, CAPMAS. Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, CAPMAS.
4 Section One Egyptian Food Observatory Price Indices of Food Food Monitoring and Evaluation System Commodities
Issue (1) – September 2011
Indicator of the Accumulated 1.2 Price Burden Figure (5) Indicator of the accumulated prices burden This section reviews total expenses L.E incurred by the Egyptian household in 4500 4092.3 4000 return for purchasing the basket once a 3500 4050.3 month during the measuring period of 3000 2500 nine months. 2000 Indicator results show that total cost of 1500 1000 the food commodities basket subject to 500 measuring during the first nine months of 0 2011 amounted to L.E 4092.3. Comparing the cost of the indicated Reference line of the accumulated burden Monthly cumulative burden basket during the nine months and the Source: Field Monitoring Network, Cabinet-Information and Decision cost in case it had been fixed at the level of Support Center. the first week of Januray-2011, shows that total cost difference amounted to L.E Table (1) 42. This costed the household an average Average prices of September-2011 and change rate compared to August prices of some food of L.E 4.7 each time it purchases the commodities basket. EGP/ Kg Average Commodity Prices in )%( 1.3 the Regions Goods Urban Lower Upper Frontier 60.1 58.5 50.1 60.0 Shifting from the helicopter view to the Beef (8.8) (0.7) (2.2) (3.6) micro-level reveals an increase in all 1 15.3 15.4 17.1 17.2 commodities of concern during August Poultry (-5.6) (-3.0) (0.5) (-9.6) and September. 13.3 10.5 13.8 13.3 Tilapia fish (1.8) (-4.6) (-0.2) (11.10 Table (1) also shows that price increase 2.2 1.8 1.7 3.3 reached peak in the urban governorates. Eggplant (10.0) (9.9) (7.8) (-5.0) Upper Egyptian governorates were most 3.7 Potato 3.3 3.3 2.9 likely to experience price decrease (21.6) (14.0) (7.7) (15.0) compared to other regions. 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.9 Onion (37.6) (11.4) (17.5) (25.0) Most of the commodities experienced 2.3 2.4 2.9 4.2 notable price increase, however, flour Tomatoes (10.7) (10.4) (22.0) (48.8) prices decreased nationwide, yellow lentil 7.9 8.1 9.6 Local bean2 8.1 except in urban governorates, rice except (4.7) (3.9) (3.6) (1.3) in frontier governorates and poultry except Yellow 11.5 9.6 9.4 9.1 lentils3 (3.1) (-3.6) (-2.2) (-2.7) in Upper Egypt. 3 4.8 4.8 3.9 4.5 On the other hand, prices increased in a Flour (-1.7) (-1.4) (-2.3) (-1.3) 5.1 5.5 5.6 manner that draws special attention such Rice4 5.7 as: beef in urban governorates and tilapia (-2.1) (-5.3) (-2.0) (6.1) fish in frontier governorates. 5 5.6 4.9 4.4 2.9 Macaroni (5.0) (1.6) (-3.7) (15.7) Results revealed price increase in different 5.9 sugar6 6.5 6.1 6.0 regions in the most frequently used group (5.7) (4.1) (-4.0) (-1.0) 13.6 13.7 12.7 of commodities among low income Corn oil7 14.1 categories such as: potatoes, onion, (0.9) (0.1) (-0.20 (1.1) 1 Poultry prices are defined as average local, and white fresh and frozen poultry. tomato, and beans. 2Unpacked bean 3 Packaged 4 Include packaged and bulk 5 Ordinary Packed 6 Packed private sector 7 L.E/ liter Source: Field Monitoring Network, Cabinet-Information and Decision Support Center.
5 Section One Egyptian Food Observatory Price Indices of Food Food Monitoring and Evaluation System Commodities
Issue (1) – September 2011
Price Differences Between 1.4 Meat prices clearly vary between urban Urban and Rural Areas and rural areas specially in Gharbya A comparison had been conducted for and Ismailia where the difference in prices of food commodities subject to the study between urban and rural areas in the veal price is L.E 30 and L.E 25, second week of Septmebt-2011 in a number respectively. Also, Giza and Gharbya of Egyptian governorates where prices of observe difference in beef prices urban and rural areas had been monitored between urban and rural by L.E 11.3 (Giza, Qena, Asuit, Gharbya and Ismailia). A and 14.3, respectively. However, the number of observations were revealed pattern changes in Qena Governorate involving many inquires related to the role of where price of beef per kilo is higher in whole sale dealers and retailers in creating rural areas compared to urban areas unverified variations of commodities' prices by L.E 8.3 and lamb by L.E 10. in the same governorate. As for fish prices, no clear difference of The price per kilo of local beans is higher prices had been observed between in rural areas than urban areas in Giza and Asuit Governorates by L.E 3.5 and L.E urban and rural areas for tilapia and 1.0 per kilo respectively. However, its catfish, whereas Mugil cephalus price prices in urban and rural areas in other is higher in Qena rural areas than governorates which do not differ much. urban areas by L.E 8.3 per kilo. In
Price of yellow lentil is higher in Giza Ismaillia, the situation is opposite urban areas than rural areas by L.E 3.5 whereby prices are higher in urban per kilo, price of black lentil is notably areas than rural areas by L.E 5.8. higher in urban areas than rural areas in Poultry prices are higher in urban Ismailia, Gharbya, and Giza. The areas than rural areas in all difference ranges between L.E 3-5 per kilo. governorates surveyed in this round. Rice prices are L.E 1.2 higher in urban areas compared to rural areas in Gharbya.
Garlic price is notably higher in Ismailia and Gharbya rural areas compared to urban areas by L.E 7.8 and L.E 5.0 per kilo respectively. Whereas, its price is higher in Giza urban compared to rural areas by L.E 5 per kilo.
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Issue (1) – September 2011
Section Two Global Market
Global Prices of Selected Food The validated price increases allow us to 2.1 Commodities project the potential impact on imports of the said commodities in future contracts. Reviewing global prices that have a direct impact on the Egyptian market either Other commodities including: wheat, beef through imports or through the local and garlic demonstrated notable price market approach of coping with global decrease. market prices revealed validated and Beef price decrease raises a question successive price increase of a number of about refraining from expanding on commodities of interest including: corn, importation in order to control the prices rice, poultry and potatoes. of local market which is suffering from high prices of meat. Figure (6) Global price development of selected food commodities
US/Kg Wheat1 74.9%7 US/Kg Corn2 79.9%7 US/Kg Rough rice2 110.3%7 US/Kg Sugar (#5)3 59.2 %8 0.40 0.30 0.50 1.00
0.30 0.28 0.40 0.80 0.26 0.30 0.60 0.20 0.24 0.20 0.40 0.10 0.22 0.10 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00
4,6 7 7 7 US/Kg Beef 89.0% US/Kg Poultry4,6 97.8% US/Kg Potatoes5 111.0% US/Kg Garlic5 4.40 2.05 0.20 5.00
2.00 0.15 4.00 4.20 3.00 1.95 0.10 2.00 4.00 1.90 0.05 1.00 3.80 1.85 0.00 0.00
Self-sufficiency ratio (2008-2009) 5 source: Website of U.S.A Department of Agriculture, http://www.ams.usda.gov. 1 source: Stock Exchange of Kansas City Council of Commerce. 6 Values of March had been estimated using changing mediums because 2 source: Stock Exchange of Chicago Council of Commerce. they are unavailable in the source. 3 source: New York Stock Exchange. 7 source: CAPMAS, Egypt in the figures of 2011. 4 source: International Monetary Fund, http://www.imf.org. 8 source: Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation.
2.2 Exchange Rate of the Egyptian Figure (7) Pound Compared to the US Dollar Development of the Egyptian Pound's exchange In addition to the aforementioned concerns L.E/$ rate versus the US dollar 6.00 regarding price increase of some 5.95 commodities in the global market, the 5.95 trend of the Egyptian Pound's exchange 5.90 rate versus the US dollars appears to rise 5.85 steadily, the matter that makes the 5.80 Egyptian imports add price burden to the 5.80 Egyptian citizen. 5.75 The Egyptian Pound's exchange rate versus the US dollar increased by 2.6% during the past nine months. Source: The Central Bank of Egypt
7 Egyptian Food Observatory Food Monitoring and Evaluation System
Issue (1) – September 2011
Three Assessment Indicators of Section the Vulnerable Households Table (2) Demographic Characteristics 3. 1 Break down of the individuals' age, enrollment of the Assessed Households and drop out rates by age groups (%) Total sample size reached 540 Age Age Enrollment Drop out 1 2 households (2391 persons) equally Groups Distribution rate rate divided among 10 governorates. 10 and less 25.0 94.8 0.4 Female heads of households represented (11-20) 22.9 95.2 15.2 29.3% of total household heads of the sample. (21-30) 16.9 85.4 22.5 (31-40) 13.3 77.9 41.7 Two thirds of the sample (64.8%) are in the -30 age group. (41-50) 8.9 56.3 58.3 (51-60) 7.5 38.9 87.3 Around 22.3% of the total sample (6+ years old) are not enrolled in education, (61-70) 4.3 31.7 75.8 enrollment rates increase concurrently 71+ 1.2 35.7 80.0 with the young age. This indicates the Total 100 77.7 26.6 improved awareness of the Egyptian 1Enrollment rates had been calculated for individuals who are 6+. households regarding education. 2Drop out rates had been calculated for individuals who are 6+ and stopped education whereby did not complete preparatory schooling. Around 26.6% of the total sample (6+ Source: Assessment Survey of the Most Needy Households, Egyptian Food Observatory, September 2011. years old) who previously went to school, had dropped out from basic education Table (3) (before preparatory). Drop out rates Proportionate break down of heads of concurrently increase with the progress of households by employment and gender (%) age. In this regard, drop out rates came to Age group Male Female Total 0.4% among individuals in the age group (6-10) compared with 15.2% among Unemployed 20.9 78.5 37.8 individuals in the age group (11-20) and Farmer(not 14.4 0.0 10.2 with individuals in the age group (41-50) holding property) Janitor or office which amounted to 58.3%. 5.0 1.9 4.1 boy Around 37.8% of total heads of Carrier 5.3 0.0 3.0 households are unemployed. Construction 4.2 0.0 2.8 worker Around 10.2% work as farmers (not Seller 7.6 10.8 8.5 property holders), 9.9% work as janitors, Truck driver 3.4 0.0 2.2 office boys/ carriers/ construction Painting worker 3.6 0.0 1.7 workers. Carriage drier 2.4 0.0 1.7
Around 10.8% of female heads of Fisher 2.1 0.0 1.5 households are sellers, and around 14.4% Other 31,1 8,8 26,5 of male heads of households are farmers (not property holders). Total 100 100 100
Source: Assessment Survey of the Most Needy Households, Egyptian Food Observatory, September 2011.
8 Section Three Egyptian Food Observatory Assessment Indicators of Food Monitoring and Evaluation System the Vulnerable Households
Issue (1) – September 2011
3. 2 Income and Expenditure Figure (8) Proportionate break down of households by 3. 2. 1 Expenditure income change compared to one month prior to the survey
)%( Average monthly expenditure of the ]Households[ vulnerable households amounted to L.E Decreased ( 14.4) 623 reflecting a daily expenditure of L.E [78] 5 per person. Increased ( 15.0) [81] 3. 2. 2 Income and Sufficiency of Income Did not change ( 70,6) Compared to the month prior to the [381] survey, 70.6% of the households reported that their income remained unchanged whereas 15% reported an increase. Source: Assessment Survey of the Most Needy Households, Egyptian This result explains that many of the Food Observatory, September 2011. sampled households experienced a growing sense of price increase. Figure (9) Proportionate break down of the sources of More than half of the sampled households households' additional income besides current (58%) advised having additional source of job income besides their current job. Others 6.2 Charitable assistance represented one third of the additional sources of income, NGOs assistance 13.2 either from the philanthropy community (16.5%) or from family members (16.3%). Family assistance 16.3 NGO assistances constituted 13.2% of the
households sources of additional income. Philanthropy 16.5 This result highlighted the importance of community assistance formal or social philanthropy work in Governmental assistance/Social 22.0 supporting the social solidarity network solidarity pension which secures what the government does Retirement pension/Insurance 25.9 not fulfill to poor households in Egypt. pension )%( 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: Assessment Survey of the Most Needy Households, Egyptian Results revealed an increased percentage Food Observatory, September 2011. of charitable assistance recipients from the philanthropy community as an Percentage of NGOs assistance recipients additional source of income in the was highest in Ismailia Governorate following governorates: Kafrel Sheikh (25.9%) and lowest in Kafrel Sheikh (28.9%), Cairo (21.4%), and Suez (20.6%), while Qena and New Valley Governorates (2.6%) and Giza (2.3%). experienced low percentages amounting to 4.8% and 6.9%, respectively.
9 Section Three Egyptian Food Observatory Assessment Indicators of Food Monitoring and Evaluation System the Vulnerable Households
Issue (1) – September 2011
78.9% of the sampled households advised Figure (10) that their monthly income is insufficient for Households break down by income sufficiency to meeting monthly needs. meet the monthly needs
(%) Qena Governorate topped the list as the [Household] income of 94.4% of the sampled Sufficient households is insufficient for meeting their (21.1) monthly needs, followed by Ismailia and [114] Suez (90.7%), then Cairo and Asuit (81.5%). Insufficient )78.9 ( New Valley recorded the lowest percentage ]426[ (55.6%).
Source: Assessment Survey of the Most Needy Households, Egyptian 3. 2. 3. Coping strategies approaches Food Observatory, September 2011. Households adopt several coping strategies which provide relevant information about Figure (11) Methods used by the households whose income is the possibility of securing the minimum insufficient for the monthly needs needs of food. Results reveal that 10.4% of the Others 2.8
households, of which, monthly income is Food assistance from the 1.9 insufficient for covering monthly needs philanthropy community
receive financial or food items assistance Second job (head of household) 2.8 from family members. Other assistance from the 3.8 5.7% of the recipient households benefit philanthropy community from the philanthropy community which Financial assistance from family 5.2 provides either food or other forms of members Food assistance from family 5.2 assistance. members Borrowing and purchase by credit tops the Buy on credit/installment 12.4 list by (54.2%) which motivates us, with
reservation, to link between this Rationalization of consumption 24.2 phenomenon and the spread of crime specially those that are not committed by Borrow money 41.8 (%) serious criminals. 0 10 20 30 40 50
Source: Assessment Survey of the Most Needy Households, Egyptian Borrowing is the most commonly used Food Observatory, September 2011. means for covering monthly needs of the households whose income is insufficient in the following governorates: Ismailia "Decreasing the normal amount of food" (65.3% of total households whose income topped the list of the approaches is insufficient), North Sinai (59.6%), Suez adopted by households for coping with (49.0%), Asuit (40.9%), Qena (39.2), and commodities price increase (53.7%), Gharbya (38.9%). followed by being obliged to purchase Most of the households whose income is the commodity (35.3%). This situation insufficient, resort to the rationalization applied to the different commodity of consumption in the following groups1. governorates: Cairo (40.9%), New Valley
(40.0%), Kafrel Sheikh (35.0%) and Giza 1It includes meat, poultry and fish, vegetable and fruit, legumes, grain, (30.6%). flour and bread, oil, ghee and butter, egg, cheese and dairy products in addition to other commodities.
10 Section Three Egyptian Food Observatory Assessment Indicators of Food Monitoring and Evaluation System the Vulnerable Households
Issue (1) – September 2011
Vulnerable Households The same group of households rarely 3. 3 Consumption of Food Commodities purchase meat, fish, sunflower and corn It is very important for decision makers, oil. and development or assistance oriented The vulnerable household try to maintain civil society organizations to get buying egg, cheese and milk three times acquainted with the consumption pattern per week in order to ensure proper protein of the vulnerable households as they are consumption. This explains protein most probably for the risk of hunger. replacement by consuming such Results that might be summarized from commodities. However, we still have some the matrix of consumption pattern reveal reservations on the consumed quantities that the group including vegetables, sugar, of those commodities questioning salt, beans, mixed oil, tea, and rice are the achieving nutritious efficiency that commodities most frequently consumed by ensures proper growth of the households' the majority of the vulnerable households members, specially children and throughout the month. adolescents. Two thirds of the vulnerable households 12% of the vulnerable households do not consume yellow lentil, white beans, chick consume subsidized Baladi bread, which peas, macaroni, fruit, and poultry once per serves as ground for questioning the week. beneficiaries of the subsidy allocation. Figure (12) Break down of the vulnerable households by pattern of consumption from the food commodities basket Legume Vegetables & Fruit Meat, Poultry & Fish
(%) 23 4 3 3 3 (%) 11 14 23 19 22 5 (%) 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 100 100 100 12.0 6.3 13.0 12.0 10.6 80 80 80 10.2 41.1 53.3 53.1 68.3 70.6 60 87.2 83.5 60 60 97.8 97.2 91.7 98.5 001 99.4 99.8 97.6 40 40 40 9.6 77.8 83.1 82.8 83.7 55.7 20 43.1 20 20 37.2 29.1 24.8 8.5 13.9 0 0 0
Egg, Cheese, Dairy Products & Oils, Margarine & Butter Grain, Flour & Bread Other Commodities
(%) 11 12 12 27 27 28 5 5 8 (%) 11 8 23 9 14 7 (%) 15 6 7 6 16 26 100 100 100 13.1 8.1 14.3 12.0 20.4 19.1 21.9 80 33.0 80 7.8 80 55.7 77.8 60 60 78.3 60 78.7 92.4 86.5 94.3 98.7 100 100 95.4 99.4 99.3 85.4 90.2 83.7 40 40 78.0 40 78.1 78.7 74.1 65.2 20 40.0 20 20 18.7 20.7 19.4 11.7 0 6.3 0 0
do not consume no longer consume consume Average number of days of consumption1
1Average number of days of consumption is calculated for households that consume the commodity. Source: Assessment Survey of the Most Needy Households, Egyptian Food Observatory, September 2011.
11 Section Three Egyptian Food Observatory Assessment Indicators of Food Monitoring and Evaluation System the Vulnerable Households
Issue (1) – September 2011
3. 4 Realizing the Change of Food Commodities' Prices Urban governorates (Cairo and Suez) ranked as top among the governorates, of Regarding the households' realization of which, residences (vulnerable households) changing in prices of the consumed recognize price increase of commodities. commodities, the vulnerable households This is compatible with the measuring have an overall sense of increased prices of aspect included in Section One which most of the food commodities between July showed validated price increase in urban governorates compared to other regions and August. starting from July. Most of those households (over three Most of the households have felt the price quarters) demonstrated recognition of the increase of the poultry in all of the increased prices of fruit, poultry, potatoes measured governorates except New Valley. and rice. The vulnerable households in the following Two thirds believe that prices of sugar, governorates: Cairo, Suez, Gharbya, and Giza stand as highest in terms of feeling dairy products, and eggs rose during the rice price increase compared with same period. households in other surveyed However, prices of salt, beans, egg plant, governorates. tea and mixed oil remained unchanged The vulnerable households in Ismailia are according to the viewpoint of the vulnerable the least in terms of feeling fruit price households. increase compared to households in other governorates. Figure (13) Break down of the vulnerable households by their opinion regarding price change of food commodities between July-August 2011 Legumes Vegetables & Fruit Meat, Poultry & Fish (%) (%) (%) 100 100 100 16.6 21.3 28.0 22.2 32.3 80 80 80 38.2 42.0 43.1 50.1 49.7 57.3 54.3 56.1 54.8 45.6 55.7 56.8 60 76.3 60 57.3 60
40 40 82.6 40 76.7 78.4 71.4 67.7 61.8 55.9 55.4 48.6 49.0 49.4 42.3 20 41.0 44.6 42.8 20 36.0 43.5 20 40.0 22.9 0 0 0
Eggs, Cheese, Milk & Oils, Margarine & Butter Grain, Flour & Bread (%) Other Commodities (%) (%) 100 100 100 25.0 80 80 80 37.9 40.5 34.4 42.3 40.9 36.4 44.7 43.1 56.7 55.5 61.4 73.4 73.6 64.5 60 76.5 60 71.5 60 69.9 85.6 91.7 100.0 40 40 40 73.7 61.0 63.9 58.9 54.9 56.8 61.0 54.1 55.4 42.7 43.3 20 20 20 35.5 22.5 25.6 24.7 24.4 30.0 25.2 14.4 0 0 0
Increased Unchanged Decreased
Source: Assessment Survey of the Most Needy Households, Egyptian Food Observatory, September 2011.
12 Section Three Egyptian Food Observatory Assessment Indicators of Food Monitoring and Evaluation System the Vulnerable Households
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3. 5 Adequacy of Commodities Prices to the Egyptian Households Prices of the subsidized bread and Prices of fruit, vegetables (except egg plant, salt are the most adequate for the legumes (except beans), oil, ghee and butter (except mixed oil) are inadequate for vulnerable households in Egypt. the vulnerable households. Prices of rice, sugar and milk are inadequate for more than four fifth of the vulnerable households. Bread..Freedom..Social justice Red line Prices of meat, poultry and fish are inadequate for the majority of the When will the poor find adequate prices vulnerable households. for food commodities in Egypt? Price of tea is adequate for two thirds of the said households.
Figure (14) Break down of the vulnerable households by their opinion on price adequacy of food commodities
Legumes Vegetables & Fruit Meat, Poultry & Fish (%) (%) (%) 100 100 6.1 100 17.1 12.9 14.7 23.4 27.8 23.1 31.9 29.0 31.2 33.9 35.1 27.9 80 80 40.9 80 41.4 52.4 62.7 60 60 60
93.1 94.1 95.4 40 40 82.7 40 86.9 85.3 76.4 70.3 71.9 75.4 67.7 68.8 65.4 63.6 70.3 57.8 57.1 45.9 20 36.2 20 20
0 0 0
Eggs, Cheese, Milk & Oils, Margarine & Butter Grain, Flour & Bread (%) Other Commodities (%) (%) 100 100 100 9.8 9.4 19.0 19.8 19.7 15.5 27.1 25.0 28.6 26.5 27.7 80 33.9 34.4 80 80 36.4 48.3 46.4 65.1 61.1 60.1 53.6 60 60 60 61.2 77.2 87.2 40 80.5 80.0 40 78.9 40 84.3 72.1 72.7 71.4 73.0 72.3 65.9 65.2 63.6 51.7 52.2 20 20 38.9 40.9 34.7 37.9 20 33.0 13.0 0 0 0
Expensive Reasonable Cheap
Source: Assessment Survey of the Most Needy Households, Egyptian Food Observatory, September 2011.
13 Section Three Egyptian Food Observatory Assessment Indicators of Food Monitoring and Evaluation System the Vulnerable Households
Issue (1) – September 2011
3. 6 Ration Cards One fifth of the vulnerable households
Around 78.1% of the vulnerable are not ration cards holders. households are ration cards holders. Around 99.3% of the vulnerable Figure (15) households that own ration cards use it Break down of vulnerable households by owning for getting the subsidized ration a ration cards commodities. (%) [Households] Not holding ration card New Valley Governorate (in the survey (21.9) [118] sample) is highest in terms of the number of the vulnerable households
owning ration cards (98.1% of total Holding ration card (78.1) sampled households in the governorate), [422] followed by Gharbya Governorate (96.3%) and Ismailia (87.0%). Source: Assessment Survey of the Most Needy Households, Egyptian The lowest percentage is found in Cairo Food Observatory, September 2011. Governorate (48.1%). Figure (16) Oil is the most ration commodity that Sufficiency of the subsidized commodities on the covers household needs; whereby 42.7% of ration cards the households owning ration cards (%) 100 reported receiving oil quantity that is 13.8 11.0 28.4 sufficient to meet its consumption. 80 42.7 13.4 Sugar and rice, on the other hand, are the most ration commodities, of which, 60 60.4 69.9 98.8 quantities are insufficient whereby 40 households are obliged to buy additional 68.3 68.0 52.7 quantities from the market. 20 27.7 22.4 0 Sugar Oil Rice Macaroni Tea Local beans There are high percentage of households Receives the commodities, but insufficient and buys which receive insufficient sugar quantity Receives the commodities, but insufficient and does not buy Does not receive the commodities from the ration card and are obliged to Receives the commodities, sufficient and does not buy more
buy additional quantities in Upper Source: Assessment Survey of the Most Needy Households, Egyptian Food Observatory, September 2011. Egypt's governorates (Qena 95.0% and Asuit 74.4%) compared to other Ismailia Governorate experienced the governorates as well as with the overall highest percentage of households which level. receive insufficient quantities of rice on the ration card and are compelled to purchase additional quantities (88.6%).
14 Egyptian Food Observatory Food Monitoring and Evaluation System
Issue (1) – September 2011 Annex (1) nj The Methodology of Developing the Xjk xijk / nj Price Monthly and Accumulated Burden i1 Since: Indicator Xjk: is average monthly price of the commodity K in month j. Xijk: is the unit price (L.E) of the commodity k in week i of the month j. n : is the number of weeks in the month j. Methodology of the Survey on the j First Vulnerable Households Then total monthly prices of the commodities basket is calculated (26 commodities) in each of the Every cycle of the survey, targets 10 governorates months subject to measuring by using the including two urban, three Lower Egypt and three equation: Upper Egyptian governorates (north and central Upper 26 Egypt) in addition to two border governorates in the Xj Xjk Eastern and Western regions. The ten governorates k1 change in each cycle in order to ensure representation Since: Xj: is total monthly average of the price (L.E) for the commodities of largest possible number of differences nationwide. In basket in month j. each governorate, one urban and one rural areas are This total is then compared with each months of targeted except urban governorates where two urban measuring against the reference price of this given areas are targeted. In addition, informal or poor areas basket which had been selected to be its price in the are targeted where the most needy households are first week of January 2011 1 which is calculated using identified within each target area. the equation: The Methodology of the Rural Prices 26 Second Observatory Y x11k k1 The Rural Prices Observatory addresses prices of the Since: commodities' basket according to the weekly market in Y: is the reference line for measuring the monthly burden of prices. X11k: is the unit price of commodity k (in Egyptian Pounds) in the first the villages visited during the cycle of the Survey on the week of January 2011. Most Needy Households in all governorates except urban ones. Index of the Cumulative Burden of Prices In order to measure the cumulative burden of Methodology of the Indices of Monthly and Third prices of the same group of commodities, the Cumulative Burdens cumulative total of prices of this basket is calculated as of the beginning of January 2022 until the month Index of the Prices' Monthly Burden or time point subject to measuring. This reflects total Index of the "Prices Monthly Burden" reflects cost paid by the Egyptian household for the selected differences between the prices of basic food commodities basket as of January 2011 until the month subject to basket in each month among the months subject to measuring assuming buying the basket once a month: observation, as well as their prices based on a specific n reference time. Development of the index depended on Zj xj selecting a basket of commodities representing the main j1 food groups (26 commodities) which, the Egyptian Since: Zj: is the cumulative total of what the household paid for the household uses in its meals. This basket would include commodities basket in month j. one measuring unit from each one of the selected This actual cumulative total is then compared with commodities that contains: 1.Meat, poultry and fish group including a kilo of: the cumulative total of the prices of the same basket beef, veal, lamb, poultry, catfish, and tilapia of commodities which could have been achieved in 2.Vegetables group including a kilo of: egg plant, case it stabilized at the selected reference point, i.e potatoes, onion, garlic and tomatoes. first week of January 2011. It is calculated using the 3.Legume group including a kilo of: local beans, following equation: yellow lentil and black lentil. 4.Grain and flour group including a kilo of rice and Wj X 11 *n wheat flour. Since:
5.Butter, oil and ghee group including: corn oil (liter), Wj: is the cumulative total of what the household would have paid in sunflower oil (liter), natural ghee (kilo) and processed the commodities basket in month j in case prices stabilized on the ghee (kilo). same level of the first week of January 2011. 6.Eggs, dairy products, cheese and others group X11: is total monthly average price (L.E) of the commodities basket in the first week of January 2011. including: eggs (package of 30), dairy (kilo), macaroni n: is the number of months between month j and January 2011. (kilo), tea (kilo) and sugar (kilo). In order to measure the monthly price burden of the commodities basket, first, the monthly average of the unit price of each commodity should be calculated using 1The first week of January 2011 had been selected instead of the average prices of the month in order to evade consequent impacts of the January the weekly prices collected by the Field Monitoring 25th Revolution. Network based on the equation:
15 Egyptian Food Observatory Food Monitoring and Evaluation System
Issue (1) – September 2011