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Croatian Market SEE LINK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2017 Croatian market Đivo Pulitika Analyst [email protected] T: +385(0) 20 4825 867 M: +385(0) 91 2825 867 InterCapital Securities Masarykova 1, 10000 Zagreb April 10, 2017 Contents I. CROATIAN MARKET IN GENERAL II. OPENING AN ACCOUNT III. CROATIAN SECURITIES TRADEABLE VIA SEE-LINK I. Hrvatski Telekom II. Valamar Riviera III. Atlantic Grupa IV. Podravka V. Ericsson Nikola Tesla IV. Q&A Expected duration: 10 minutes + Q&A 2 Croatian Market in General Average GDP per capita in EUR (2013-2015) Past and expected future GDP development 5Y USD spread compared to US bonds *source: FocusEconomics 5.2% 400 400 20,058 350 350 2.9% 3.0% 2.7% 2.1% 1.6% 300 300 250 250 11,295 -0.3% -0.4% 200 200 -1.1% -1.7% 7,011 -2.2% 150 150 5,011 4,666 100 100 Historical ConsensusEconomics forecast 50 50 Croatia Romania Slovenia Serbia -7.4% 0 0 Slovenia Croatia Bulgaria Serbia Macedonia 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Average daily equity turnover on ZSE CROBEX development Breakdown of Croatian pension funds’ assets 11.79 14 Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 *source: HANFA *source: Zagreb Stock Exchange 180 180 EURbn 9.44 CROBEX 12 Domestic equity 160 160 CROBEXtr Foreign equity Investment funds 140 CROBEX as of Oct 2007 140 10 Bonds 120 120 Other 8 100 100 34% 6 3.96 80 80 Maximum legal 3.05 2.81 60 60 exposure to equity 2.68 4 1.64 1.63 1.64 1.46 1.64 40 40 20 20 2 0 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 '17 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 3 Opening an Account Required documents Settlement options TECHNICALITIES 1. Via SKDD (Central Depository & Clearing Company) • Pre-funding required 1. Brokerage Agreement • More info: www.skdd.hr 2. Supplementary documents • Information on the beneficial owner, notarized 2. Via custody account (InterCapital or another bank) copy of passports • Agreement on custody account • Excerpt from the Register of the Commercial Court • Certified copy of passports of directors and persons in charge of issuing orders etc. WHAT IS IMPORTANT DO DEFINE 1. Provisions 2. Settlement options Agreements are tailor made to adjust to the individual needs of clients and specific regulations concerning different countries or origin. For more information, please contact: [email protected] +385 (0)1 4825 891 4 Croatian Securities Tradeable via SEE-Link 176 INDIVIDUAL SECURITIES: SEELinX INDEX COMPONENTS: 146 Equity issues Hrvatski Telekom 11 Government bonds Valamar Riviera 4 Municipal bonds Atlantic Grupa 15 Corporate bonds Podravka Ericsson Nikola Tesla 5 Hrvatski Telekom 33.5% Majority shareholder: Deutsche Telekom (51%) 6M avg. daily turnover: EUR 210.5k EV/EBITDA: 3.8x 51.0% Other shareholders above 5%: 16% Market cap: EUR 1,872m P/E: 15.3x 15.6% Free float: 33% Free float: EUR 626m P/B: 1.2x Share price performance Revenues (EURm) and profitability Return on average equity 400 200% 1,200 1,121 1,102 60% 16.6% 16.4% 1,061 300 15.9% 15.5% 18% 350 981 927 917 16% 1,000 909 910 50% 250 13.3% 300 150% 266 14% 47.5% 241 238 800 45.3% 47.2% 40% 200 10.4% 12% 250 44.1% 43.5% 223 40.3% 40.2% 40.5% 8.2% 7.8% 10% 600 30% 150 190 200 100% 8% 150 150 400 20% 100 124 122 6% 23.8% 22.5% 22.7% 21.9% 20.5% 4% 100 50% 200 16.5% 10% 50 HT share price 13.6% 13.3% 2% share price + dividend 50 0 0% 0 0% CROBEX 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 0% Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Revenues (EURm) EBITDA margin Profit margin Net income ROaE HT has a strong net cash position Dividend yields through the years Takeover of Montenegro Telekom 586 600 16.0% Beginning of 2017 HT bought 77% in 532 13.6% 491 490 492 467 500 442 449 14.0% Montenegro Telekom for EUR 124m 11.3% 12.0% 400 9.2% 9.7% It should add some 10% to both revenues 10.0% 300 7.3% and EBITDA 8.0% 200 5.3% 6.0% 4.2% 4.1% 3.3% Transaction multiples: 100 4.0% EV/EBITDA 3.6x 0 2.0% P/E 14.8x 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.0% Net cash (EURm) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 P/B 1.2x 6 Valamar Riviera Majority shareholder: EPIC Fund (44%) 6M avg. daily turnover: EUR 209.2k EV/EBITDA: 12.8x 44.1% 50.8% Other shareholders above 5%: 5% Market cap: EUR 697m P/E: 15.1x Free float: 51% Free float: EUR 354m P/B: 2.2x 5.1% Share price performance Revenues (EURm) and profitability Return on average equity 50 550% 250 40% 33.9% 34.9% 50 16.0% 18% 500% Valamar Riviera share price 35% 45 16% 40 200 28.9% 450% 27.2% 40 45 14% CROBEX 208 30% 400% 35 21.7% 25% 12% 350% 150 175 30 30 10% 300% 143 147 20% 25 6.1% 8% 100 20 5.6% 250% 9.8% 15% 20 7.9% 6% 200% 15 2.8% 4.6% 10% 4% 150% 50 10 14 14 5% 5 2% 10 100% 7 0 0% 0 0% 50% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 0% Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Revenues (EURm) EBITDA margin Profit margin Net income ROaE Valamar plans to keep net debt under 3x EBITDA CAPEX (EURm) and plans for future years Takeover of Hotel Imperial 300 2.7 3.0 140 2.5 End-2016 Valamar acquired 55% stake in 116 250 2.1 2.2 2.5 120 Imperial for EUR 38m 100 100 184 200 2.0 100 142 It should add some 10% to revenues and 150 1.5 80 90 56 12% to EBITDA 100 79 1.0 60 50 41 50 0.5 40 30 Transaction multiples: EV/EBITDA 12.8x 0 0.0 20 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 P/B 1.55x Net debt (EURm) Net debt / EBITDA 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 7 Atlantic Grupa 19.7% Majority shareholder: Emil Tedeschi (50.2%) 6M avg. daily turnover: EUR 53.9k EV/EBITDA: 8.8x 50.2% Other shareholders above 5%: 30.2% Market cap: EUR 349m P/E: 16.0x 30.2% Free float: 19.7% Free float: EUR 69m P/B: 1.3x Share price performance Revenues (EURm) and profitability Return on average equity 1200 13.0% 13.1% 250% 800 717 14% 35 12.7% 12.4% 14% 659 663 680 681 700 628 1000 12% 30 12% 32 200% 600 9.7% 11.7% 10% 11.5% 11.6% 25 28 8.2% 10% 800 500 10.5% 10.4% 26 150% 9.6% 9.2% 8% 20 8% 400 8.9% 21 600 292 303 6% 15 4.4% 6% 300 3.7% 100% 14 400 4% 10 13 4% 200 4.6% 4.4% 4.1% 4.4% 3.9% 2% 9 100 3.2% 5 7 2% 200 Atlantic Grupa share price 50% CROBEX 0 1.1% 1.3% 0% 0 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 0% Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Revenues (EURm) EBITDA margin Profit margin Net income ROaE Atlantic Grupa is used to high leverage Atlantic Grupa owns some of the strongest and best known brands in the Adria region 600 12.0 500 11.1 10.0 400 8.0 322 318 300 300 266 247 6.0 219 202 200 4.0 4.8 4.0 100 3.4 2.0 35 3.1 2.9 3.2 0 1.4 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Net debt (EURm) Net debt / EBITDA 8 Podravka 25.4% 30.8% Majority shareholder: Government (25.4%) 6M avg. daily turnover: EUR 73.7k EV/EBITDA: 8.0x Other shareholders above 5%: 43.8% Market cap: EUR 327m P/E: 12.6x Free float: 30.8% Free float: EUR 101m P/B: 0.8x 43.8% Share price performance Most of Podravka’s brands are No.1 in Croatia and on many markets of the Adria region 500 180% 450 400 160% 350 140% 300 120% 250 100% 200 80% 150 60% Podravka share price 100 40% 50 CROBEX 20% 0 0% Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Podravka as a whole Food segment Pharma segment 600 550.7 25% 600 25% 600 25% 477.1 477.2 500 460.9 500 20% 443.5 20% 500 23.30% 20% 365.1 371.3 21.30% 400 400 350.3 400 15% 15% 18.70% 15% 300 300 300 15.30% 13.10% 10% 12.09% 12.92% 10% 13.00% 12.30% 10% 200 10.49% 10.95% 11.22% 200 200 8.70% 9.50% 9.40% 112.0 110.6 105.9 107.3 5% 5% 8.40% 8.70% 100 100 7.40% 100 5% 5.71% 5.04% 4.36% 4.20% 0 0% 0 3.20% 3.30% 0% 0 0% Revenue EBITDA margin Profit margin Revenue EBITDA margin Profit margin Revenue EBITDA margin Profit margin 9 Ericsson Nikola Tesla Majority shareholder: Ericsson (49%) 6M avg.
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