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Kenya's Existential Elections and Why They Matter

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The$Greater$Horn$Outlook$0$Issue$#$30 GHEA Outlook The Greater Horn of East Africa in Perspective The Choice... Why they matter Kenya’s Existential Elections Page$1 The$Greater$Horn$Outlook$0$Issue$#$30 1. Introduction Issue%Highlights: Page If there is a single event that could be 1. Introduction$ $ $ $ $ $ $ 1 marked down as a pivotal point for 2. The$Players$ $ $ $ $ $ $ 2 East Africa and one that sets the tone 3. The$Issues$in$the$Manifestos$$ $ $ $ 6 for the rest of 2013 it would have to be the Kenyan elections. All of East Africa 4. An$Existential$Election?$ $ $ $ $ 7 will be watching closely as Kenyans 5. Debates$You$Say?$ $ $ $ $ $ 8 head to the polls. Two dates have been 6. It$Will$Not$Be$Like$Last$Time$$ $ $ $ 8 circled for the past few months; March 6.1. No&Confusion&on&Who&is&President 4 (Election Day) and April 11 (the date for the election run-o! should a clear 6.2. No&Element&of&Surprise winner not emerge on March 4). For 6.3. The&UhuRuto&Ticket the Greater Horn of East Africa (GHEA) 7. Insights$0$the$morning$after$the$day$before$$ $ 9 this election represents a case of 7.1. Devolution& will&happen&and&it& will&not&be& collective anxiety. The 2007 general easy&or&cheap election in Kenya and the political fallout remains fresh in the minds of 7.2. The& Real& PolitickinG& BeGins& After& The& East Africa’s citizens, politicians and President&is&Elected businesses. If there was ever an 7.3. &A&HealerKinKChief instance of an entire region su!ering 7.4. The&Somalia&Question from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the GHEA would be a primary example when the post-election violence erupted in Kenya between December and January 2007 and 2008 respectively. The post-election violence and political crisis that ensued in Kenya marked the beginning of transcendent changes to the country that culminates on March 4. The irony of Kenya’s previous election is that it showed how integrated the region truly is despite the skepticism expressed by some. The 2007-2008 post-election crisis and violence showed the extent to which the region is intertwined. Each partner state of the East African Community (EAC) felt the consequences of a Kenya in turmoil. Landlocked countries, speci"cally Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi were in dire straits as their main trade arteries with Mombasa port were closed o!. Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port was overwhelmed with the diverted tra#c. Page$2 The$Greater$Horn$Outlook$0$Issue$#$30 The region has passed a certain elections will be existential and allocation. Without it, we will see threshold and now when anything absolutely crucial for the following: more marginalized communities. major happens domestically in one the two main candidates and their country has a direct impact on all the alliances, Kenya and the entire Finally, for the entire region this countries in the neighbourhood. This region. election is signi"cant. As Mr. Satchu is why the 2013 Kenyan election is as stated, Kenya is a regional economic much a regional issue as it is a The two leading candidates of the anchor state. The region needs a election, Prime Minister Raila Odinga dynamic, con"dent and engaged national one. It is why, for the lead up to this year’s election, there is an and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenya for its own long-term welfare all hands on deck approach to Kenya Kenyatta have everything at stake in and prospects. Will the election by the EAC partner states. this election. They simultaneously outcome lead to an outward or have everything to gain and inward looking Kenya? Will the This GHEA Outlook places Kenya’s everything to lose depending on country be too bogged down on elections in a regional context. It how things shape out. Their understanding devolution and identi"es the key players and themes reactions to a loss will be incredibly implementing it to focus on issues throughout the elections and important for the trajectory of outside its borders? No matter what happens it is quite clear that this election will be critical to all parties involved demonstrating why Kenya’s elections matter not only to Kenyans themselves but the entire region and continent. 2. The Players This is much more than just a presidential election. Each Kenyan voter is choosing six representatives, of which the president is only one, compared to three previously. That 1 Source: IRIN News ‘Kenya: No Ordinary Election” means six di!erent campaign positions, ideologies and policies provides some analysis on a few Kenya’s future. Their actions could to follow and understand. certainties in a situation where there either strengthen Kenya’s institutions is a lot of uncertainty. This Outlook that were created as a result of the These are the names this Outlook provides a snapshot of what is at fallout from 2007 or completely feels the region should watch stake from a regional perspective undermine it. For Kenya, its future as throughout the electoral process: and also look beyond the elections, a unitary state is at stake. At the most the morning after. As Aly Khan dramatic level, the outcome of this Prime Minister Raila Odinga: The Satchu, CEO of Rich Management election will a#rm or undermine this Prime Minister is one of two and well-known economist in the unity. Bold and courageous candidates who have everything to region, explained to this Outlook in leadership will be needed to oversee gain and everything to lose from this answering a question posed to him the consequences of a devolved election. Mr. Odinga ran for on what is at stake for the EAC and government and its implementation president in 2007 under the Orange regional integration on March 4, he while simultaneously keeping the Democratic Movement (ODM) when responded, “Kenya remains the country’s "scal house in order. This he lost a closely contested election. anchor state and the geopolitical type of leadership will be essential in After weeks of political turmoil and pivot of the EAC.” Translation? preventing misuse of funds, quarrels violence, Mr. Odinga and President Everything is at stake! Which leads over jurisdiction and resource Mwai Kibaki formed a coalition this Outlook to believe that Kenya’s government that resulted in Mr. Page$3 The$Greater$Horn$Outlook$0$Issue$#$30 Source: IRIN News ‘Kenya: No Ordinary Election”2 historically committed violence against each other, especially in Odinga becoming Prime Minister President Daniel Arap Moi’s 2007-2008. Ironically, this ticket may and the two parties coming to a candidate and successor. He then mitigate the chances of violence, truce. Not long ago the 2013 election joined the Party of National Unity while the ICC issue has raised the was supposed to be a shoe-in for (PNU) under President Kibaki. He stakes and polarized the country. Prime Minister Odinga. Like many of later joined the National Alliance According to the International Crisis the players, Mr. Odinga stems from Party (TNA) and consequently, when Group (ICG), “the stakes for Kenyatta the Kenya African National Union he joined forces with Mr. William and Ruto, in particular, are high. If (KANU), which he left to join the Ruto, created the Jubilee Alliance in Kenyatta fails to win the presidency National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) for whom he is the presidential they may be facing trail in the after President Moi anointed Mr. candidate. Hague, with little, if any support Uhuru Kenyatta to be the KANU from a new government that might presidential candidate. The Prime Things got very complicated when he and Mr. Ruto, were indicted by be eager to sideline former rivals by Minister is currently running on the supporting the ICC process.”3 But Coalition for Reform and Democracy the International Criminal Court (ICC) what if he wins? How will things play (CORD) ticket with his running mate on allegations of orchestrating the out for the region if one of the EAC Mr. Kalonzo Musyoka, the Vice- post-election violence that partner states is led by an ICC President of Kenya. happened after the elections in 2007-2008. Uhuru Kenyatta suspect that eventually gets Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru vehemently denies these allegations convicted? Kenyatta: Mr. Kenyatta has been and has stated he would fully Martha Karua: Known as the Iron running for President for a decade. cooperate with the ICC, even if he Lady of Kenya, Martha Karua is the Many political pundits believe that becomes President, presenting an only female candidate running for he also has everything to gain and awkward predicament for Kenya, its President. She has a very popular everything to lose in this election. allies and the international following but many pundits ruled The son of Kenya’s founding community. out her victory due to the lack of President, Jomo Kenyatta, the stars funds and the relatively small size of seemed to be aligned for Mr. Mr. Kenyatta’s alliance with Mr. Ruto her campaign operation. Despite the Kenyatta to have a smooth race to seemed to be a powerful combination since they represent perceived lack of resources, Ms. victory. He began the decade with Karua has been able to in$uence and the KANU where he was anointed two ethnic groups that have Page$4 The$Greater$Horn$Outlook$0$Issue$#$30 a!ect the elections by addressing presidential race much earlier than to focus on national unity and hard issues and not shying away his colleagues. His greatest asset has economic empowerment. from attacking her former cabinet been to push for an issue-based colleagues, speci"cally Mr.
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