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Study on Risk Analysis and the Way of Framing the Activity of Credit Guarantee for SMEs in Prudential Requirements/ Indicators Dumitru Nancu Ovidius University of Constanta, Faculty of Economic Sciences [email protected] Abstract This study deals with risk analysis and with the way of framing the activity of credit guarantee for SMEs in terms of prudential requirements/ indicators. Il also tackles the ways of framing the activity of guaranteeing, financing and treasury, under prudential requirements/ indicators, within the limits laid down for Non-Banking Financial Institutions, for Guaranteeing the Credits granted to SMEs, by the National Credit Guarantee Fund for SMEs, under the Risk Policy and internal regulations (rules, procedures, operation instructions). Key words: risk analysis, credit guarantee, SME, prudential requirements, indicators J.E.L. classification: G30 1. Introduction The aspects related to the prudential indicators on the banking market, for the fiscal year 2015, are presented in accordance with several internal regulations, such as: "Methodological Norm no. 37 on credit risk management", "Methodological Norm no. 39 on market risk management and liquidity risk", "Methodological Norm no. 19 on the classification and provisioning of guarantees", "Working Procedure no. 14 on the identification and coding of groups of borrowers" etc. Within this study, we are going to deal with risk analysis and with framing the activity of guaranteeing, financing and treasury, under prudential requirements/ indicators. It is noteworthy that, in 2015, the Fund's activity was conducted in accordance with the prudential indicators established by the Risk Policy and by the above-mentioned risk management rules (Isărescu, M., 2015, p. 7). 2. Elements connected to the way of framing the activity of credit guarantee As far as research methodology is concerned, in this paper, we used both qualitative and quantitative methods of data analysis (regarding the prudential indicators for the fiscal year 2015), such as comparative data analysis, systems analysis and descriptive analysis (Chorafas, D.N., 2007, p. 17). It is noteworthy that the data analyzed within this paper are provided by Charisma, a business intelligence software for the advanced processing and analysis of performance indicators. The main elements analyzed in connection to the way of framing the activity of credit guarantee, in terms of prudential indicators, on the banking market, for the fiscal year 2015, are as follows: 1) The balance of the guarantees granted under equity, in the amount of 2,282,911,962 RON, registered at 31.12.2015, decreased by 4.02%, compared to the balance of November 2015 (i.e. 2,378,488,000 RON). The pace of this decline was slightly higher compared to the previous month (i.e. 3.34%). In December 2015, guarantees were granted in the amount of 72,712,571 RON, registering a decrease by 29.9%, compared to the guarantees granted in November 2015, in the amount of 103,730,667 RON, while the number of the guarantees granted registered a decrease by 17.9%. 2) The exposure from the activity of credit guarantee, respectively to the clientele of financial institutions, at 31.12.2015, represented by the balance of the guarantees from the portfolio of guarantees issued from the equity, in the amount of 2,282,911,962 RON, and falls in the coverage limit of 6,718,021,866 RON, as determined by the risk policy. Also, by monitoring the funders’ use of the guarantee coverage limits based on risk classes, the exposure falls within the limits assigned to funders. Thus, the coverage limit of 6,718,021,866 RON was used in a ratio of 33.98% at 31.12.2015, considering the balance of the guarantees granted under own sources, i.e. 38.81%, if we take into account the risk exposure of 2,607,806,421 RON. 3) Regarding the quality of the portfolio of guarantees from the balance sheet, it is noteworthy that, in absolute amounts, the undervalued guarantees have decreased slightly compared to November 2015 (this decrease was triggered mainly by the decrease in the beneficiaries with payment application and in the beneficiaries with demand for payment). On the other hand, the value of the balance for insolvent debtors grew by 6.3% in December, compared to the value recorded in November 2015. Regarding the quality of the guarantees granted monthly between October and December 2015, assessed according to the credit risk categories assigned by banks, we underline the fact that approx. 98% of the grants fell in the first 3 categories (standard, in observation, substandard), the difference of about 2% of the grants classified as doubtful and loss representing extensions. 4) In terms of the exposure represented by the balance of the guarantees issued from administration sources, on 31.12.2015, the total balance of the guarantees issued from administration sources (SAPARD, EAFRD, POP, according to GEO 79/2009, Law 329/2009, GEO 20/2014 and GEO 43/2014) was 1,183,604,279 RON, decreasing by 1.85%, compared to the balance recorded in the previous month, i.e. 1,205,892,197 RON. The balance corresponding to each portfolio falls within the limits set by source categories, as presented in the report. 5) At 31.12.2015, the exposure from financing activities was of 76,600,169.49 RON (current and overdue loans, current and overdue interest, penalty interest and overdue commissions) and it was provisioned at a share of 99.55% (provisions of 76,258,053.6 RON). The exposure resulting from the guaranteeing activity, respectively to the clientele of financial institutions, reflect the framing of the exposures resulting from the guaranteeing activity at the book value cumulated at the Fund level under equity, within the maximum coverage limit (Dardac, N. and Moinescu, B., 2006, p. 45). The maximum coverage limit was set at 6,718,021,866 RON (7 times the equity of FNGCIMM). It also examines the compliance with the maximum coverage limit allocated to a funder’s clientele, depending on the risk class determined in accordance with “PL 15”. At 31.12.2015, the Fund’s exposure to risk, regarding the guarantees granted on equity, consisted of the balance of the financial guarantees registered in the book keeping plus the amount of the payment applications rejected by the Fund, the inactive guarantees that can turn into payment of guarantees if the bank appeals against the Fund's decision, and the appeal is settled favorably by the courts or by the Fund (Uyemura, D.G. and Deventa, D.R., 1993, p. 20). Thus, at 31.12.2015, the Fund’ s exposure to risk was of 2,607,806,421 RON, of which 2.282.911.962 RON represented the balance of the guarantees granted under the equity, and 324,894,459 RON represented the amount of the payment applications rejected by the Fund between 2007 and 31.12.2015, registered in Charisma database. Table no. 1a. Evolution (I) of risk exposure under the equity Rejected payment applications, Balance of the guarantees Total risk exposure Date registered in the Charisma granted under equity (RON) (RON) database (in balance) (RON) 31.10.2015 2,460,730,220 275,453,409 2,736,183,629 30.11.2015 2,378,488,000 302,165,730 2,680,653,730 31.12.2015 2,282,911,962 324,894,459 2,607,806,421 Source: Processing performed by the author, based on Charisma database The balance of the guarantees granted under equity (2,282,911,962 RON) registered at 31.12.2015, experienced a decrease by 4.02%, compared to the balance from November 2015 (2,378,488,000 RON). The pace of the decrease was slightly higher compared to the previous month (i.e. 3.34%). The situation regarding the evolution of the balance of the guarantees granted under the equity, at 31.12.2015, compared to 30.11.2015, can be explained as follows: Table no. 1b. Evolution (II) of risk exposure under the equity Balance of the Balance of the Payment New grants Balance outflow in December 2015 (RON) guarantees guarantees applications (including granted under of which: granted under under increases) in equity at Settled equity at analysis at December Total Expired/ paid off 30.11.2015 payment 31.12.2015 31.12.2015 2015 (RON) guarantees (RON) applications (RON) (RON) 2,378,488,000 18,355,643 113,931,681 27,534,698 86,396,983 2,282,911,962 189,898,690 Source: Processing performed by the author, based on Charisma database The decrease in the balance of December 2015, compared to November 2015, by 95.6 million RON, was determined by the outflows of guarantees from the balance, amounting to 113.9 million RON (of which the expired guarantees/ disclaims/ exchange influences amounted to 74 million RON; the decreases in the balances of guarantees triggered by the amortization of the loan guaranteed amounted to 8.9 million RON; the settlement of payment applications amounted to 27.5 million RON, and the extensions with a decrease in the balance amounted to 3.5 million RON, while the newly granted guarantees (without extensions) amounted to 17.2 million lei, and supplementations (extensions with an increased guarantee value) amounted to 1.2 million RON. In this regard, we emphasize the continuation of the descendant trend of the guarantees newly granted also in December, by the new guarantees amounting to 17.2 million RON, compared to the previous month, when there was registered an amount of 22.7 million RON. It is noteworthy that during January-December 2015, following the analysis on the granting of guarantees, there were rejected 347 applications for guarantees from own sources, amounting to 126.55 million RON (of which 95.38 million RON under the Coverage Convention, and 31,17 million RON under the Express Convention).