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An Empirical Analysis of Industrialization Development Based on AHP in Shandong Peninsula City Group

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An Empirical Analysis of Industrialization Development Based on AHP in Shandong Peninsula City Group 2015 2nd International Conference on Material Engineering and Application (ICMEA 2015) ISBN: 978-1-60595-323-6 An Empirical Analysis of Industrialization Development Based on AHP in Shandong Peninsula City Group Ning Liu1, Jinghua Sha & Hongyun Ma2 1School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, China 2Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assesssment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land & Resources, Beijing, China ABSTRACT: It is very meaningful to evaluate the degree of industrialization in Shandong Peninsula City Group for internal development of the cities group and the construction of new urbanization in China. This study analyzed the industrialization development of Shandong peninsula city group and every city with the method of AHP. The conclusion indicted that the industrialization stage of Shandong peninsula city group is the advanced stage of industrial implementation phase, while the industrialization stage of Shandong province is the primary stage of industrial implementation phase. Jinan and Qingdao have been after industrialization stage, while Zibo, Dongying, Yantai and Weihai have been the advanced stage of industrial implementation phase, and Weifang and Rizhao have been the primary stage of industrial implementation phase. 1 INTRODUCTION Industrialization is defined to be a process that with the continuous development of modern industry, especially the development of manufacturing, the proportion of industrial value accounted for gross domestic product (GDP) keep increasing, and the industry have developed to be the pillar of the economy. World industrialization originated British industrial revolution in the 18th century. Industrialization process with characteristics of mechanized production changed mode of production and way of life, transferring labor, capital and other factors of production from countryside to city, driving the progress of the society. Shandong peninsula is one of earliest developed regions at modern times in China, establishing a relatively complete industrial system after 1949. It is very meaningful to evaluate the degree of industrialization in Shandong Peninsula City Group for internal development of the cities group and the construction of new urbanization in China. 1Liu Ning: [email protected] 376 2 THEORETICAL BASIS According to the Petty-Clark's law, the law of industrial development is that with the development of industrialization, the regional industrial structure is transforming along the direction of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry. Thus the pillar industries and employment structure should transform along the direction of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry. In order to assess the degree of industrialization, the main factors including economy gross, industrial structure and employment structure should be taken into account. 2.1 Multi-Country Model The multinational model was put forward by American economist H. Chenery in 1986, analyzing the industrialization progress in 101 country from 1950 to 1970, especially the economy development and industrialization process. H. Chenery divided industrialization level into six stages from low to high in turn. The six stages include three major stages and six small stages. The major stages are pre-industrial stage, the implementation stage and the stage after industrialization. The implementation phase includes the primary stage, intermediate stage and advanced stage of industrialization. The stage after industrialization includes the junior stage and the senior stage of developed economy. 2.2 Industrialization level evaluation system of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Industrialization level evaluation system of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences analyzed the industrialization level and process. The evaluation index system selected by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences are: (1) per capita GDP; (2) industrial structure; (3) the proportion of manufacturing output accounts for the total added value of commodity production department; (4) urbanization rate; (5) employment structure. The division of development stage of industrialization reference in Multi-Country model. 377 Table 1. Standard value of different degree of industrialization. Industrial implementation phase After Pre-industria industrializa Basic index l stage Primary Intermediate( Advanced tion (ⅰ) (ⅱ) ⅲ) (ⅳ) stage(ⅴ) 1. per capital GDP 2000, $ 660-1320 1320-2640 2640-5280 5280-9910 ≥9910 2013, $ 1053-2114 2114-4220 4220-8441 8441-15842 ≥20194 2. industrial structure A>I A>20%, A<I A<20%, I>S A<10%, I>S A<10%, I<S 3. Manufacturing ≤20 20%-40% 40%-50% 50%-60% ≥60% Proportion 4. urbanization rate ≤30% 30%-50% 50%-60% 60%-75% ≥75% 5. employment structure of first ≥60% 45%-60% 30%-45% 10%-30% ≤10% industry Note: Chenery, etc(1989, p191—198), Kuznets (1999, p1347—1360), Cody, etc(1990, p117—118), Wei(2003, p12—18), Guo(2004), Chen(2006). Ps: A represents the proportion of the added value of the first industry in GDP. I represents the proportion of the added value of the secondary industry in GDP. S represents the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry in GDP 3 COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION 3.1 Index selected Refer to previous research, industrialization level of development of one area usually evaluated by per capita GDP, industrial structure, urbanization rate and employment structure. 3.2 Data treatment The data of Per Capita GDP is in dollar terms in order to compare with benchmark. The exchange rate between RMB and USD adopts the average price from January to December in 2013. Proportion of three industry output value, urbanization rate and primary industry employment proportion are from Shandong statistical yearbook (2001-2014). Proportion of manufacturing output accounts for the total added value of GDP has different statistical caliber between different cities in Shandong peninsula city group. The data of Qingdao, Weihai and Rizhao adopt the industrial production to replace manufacturing output because of the lack of statistical data, and the other cities adopt the data from Shandong statistical yearbook (2001-2014). 378 This research standardizes the data with the method of periodic threshold value method2. The formula is as follows. ik (jik 1)*33 (X ik minkj ) /(max kj minkj ),(j ik 2、、） 3 4 ik 0,(jik 1) (1) ik 100,(jik 5) where jik represents development stage of index “k” in region “i”, ik ∈[0,100]. (1) jik =1, ik =0, represents development stage of index “k” in region “i” is after industrialization, (2) jik =5, ik =100, represents development stage of index “k” in region “i” is Pre-industrial stage, (3) if jik equal to 2 ,3, 4, the value of ik = Base Values(0,33,66 separately) + (the actual value - the minimum reference value )/( the maximum reference value - the minimum 3 reference value) . (4) X ik represent the actual value of index “k” in region “i”. Table 2. Judgment matrix of industrialization4. Per Manufacturing Urbanization Employment Industrialization capita Industry structure Proportion rate structure GDP Per capita GDP 1 2 2 3 4 Industry structure 1/2 1 1 2 3 Manufacturing 1/2 1 1 2 3 proportion Urbanization rate 1/3 1/2 1/2 1 2 Employment 1/4 1/3 1/3 1/2 1 structure 3.3 Analysis process After building matrix of industrialization (Tab.2), the research calculates the weight of each index with the sum-product method, and getting the weight of each index: the weight of Per capita GDP is 0.38; the weight of Industry structure is 0.22; the weight of manufacturing 2Basic Assumptions: A certain indicator reflects the linear corresponding relation between industrialization and index change in the same stage of industrialization. It is a kind of approximate value. 3The minimum reference value and the maximum reference value referto Tab.2-Tab.4 4Delphi experts investigation method by the research team of Scientific evaluation system for the development of small and medium-sized cities in China 379 proportion is 0.21; the weight of urbanization rate is 0.12; the weight of employment structure is 0.07. （1）The largest eigenvalue: n AW)( i max nW i1 i =5.033170339 (2) AW）（ Where i is the component product of (AW). （2）Consistency check: - n CI max n 1 =0.008292585 (3) The mean random consistency index RI refers to RI values proposed by Satty. Consistency Ratio CR: CI CR RI =0.007404094<0.10 (4) The results display that the consistency of judgment matrix is acceptable. 4 CONCLUSIONS The industrialization stage of Shandong peninsula city group is the advanced stage of industrial implementation phase, while the industrialization stage of Shandong province is the primary stage of industrial implementation phase. Jinan and Qingdao have been after industrialization stage, while Zibo, Dongying, Yantai and Weihai have been the advanced stage of industrial implementation phase, and Weifang and Rizhao have been the primary stage of industrial implementation phase. In a word, the industrialization level of Shandong peninsula city group is higher than Shandong province. 380 Table 3. The index and process of Shandong peninsula city group. Per capita Industry Manufacturin Urbanizatio Employment Composite Stage GDP structure g Proportion n rate structure scores Jinan 37 21 21 12 7 100 ⅴ Qingdao 37 21 21 12 7 100 ⅴ Zibo 37 21 21 4 7 92 ⅳ(II) Dongying 38 21 21 4 5 89 ⅳ(II) Yantai 37 21 21 4 5 89 ⅳ(II) Weifang 25 14 21 8 5 74 ⅳ(I) Weihai 37 21 21 8 7 96 ⅳ(II) Rizhao 25 21 21 4 5 77 ⅳ(I) peninsula 37 21 21 8 7 96 ⅳ(II) city group Shandong 25 21 21 4 5 77 ⅳ(I) province Note: (I)represents the primary stage of industrial implementation phase (if composite scores is less than the median ); (II) represents the advanced stage of industrial implementation phase (if composite scores is greater than the median). Table 4. Area structure of the Shandong peninsula city group. Stage City After industrialization(ⅴ) Jinan, Qingdao Industrial implementation phase(ⅳ) (II) Zibo, Dongying, Yantai, Weihai (I) Weifang, Rizhao REFERENCES Syrquin M., Chenery H. Patterns of development, 1950-1970 [M]. Oxford University Press, 1975.
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