Scenario Planning for the Westernport Bay Region

Home , Bass Coast Shire, Blue Wedges, Phillip Island, Quail Island (Victoria)

Scenario planning for the Westernport Bay Region Final report of the Phillip Island scenario-planning workshop Workshop organisers The Westernport Bay Region scenario-planning workshop was organised by the Preserve Western Port Action Group, the Victorian National Parks Association and the Australian National University, with the generous support of Bass Coast Shire Council. The Victorian National Parks Association is an independent, non-profit, membership- based group that exists to protect Victoria’s unique natural environment and biodiversity through the establishment and effective management of national parks, conservation reserves and other measures. The Preserve Western Port Action Group is a Phillip Island community group of like- minded individuals whose objective is to protect and preserve the natural environment and its amazing wildlife for everyone to enjoy. The Bass Coast Shire Council sets the strategic direction of the municipality, establishing and guiding policies, setting service delivery standards and monitoring the performance of the organisation. The Australian National University is a celebrated place of intensive research, education and policy engagement, home to an interconnected community of scholars and that is located in the heart of Canberra.

Acknowledgements The organisers of the Phillip Island scenario-planning workshop wish to thank Robert Costanza, Ida Kubiszewski and their ANU PhD students for facilitating the scenario-planning workshop, the Bass Coast Shire Council for their generous support, the Day 1 speakers Peter van Duyn, Steve Cork and Barbara Norman for their thought-provoking presentations, the volunteers, led by Carmen Bush, who helped with the day-to-day logistics and catering (thanks to Mad Cowers Cafe for the delicious food), and to all the workshop participants who gave their time to engage in discussions and debate about the future of the Westernport Bay Region.

Photos Cover: View from the Newhaven Yacht Club. Photo by Natalie Davey. Back page: Crested Terns at Stockyard Point, courtesy Wayne Butterworth (Creative Commons - flickr flickr.com/photos/frankzed/).

Editor: Chris Smyth Designer: John Sampson Coordination: Simon Branigan

2 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION Scenario planning for the Westernport Bay Region Final report of the Phillip Island scenario-planning workshop

3 3 CONTENTS

Executive Summary ...... 6 The Scenario-planning Workshop ...... 7 The Westernport Bay Region ...... 10 Four Alternative Futures for the Westernport Bay Region ...... 14 Scenario 1 WesternFreePort ...... 15 20-40 Outcomes of WesternFreePort ...... 16 Scenario 2 The Beacon ...... 19 20-40 Outcomes of The Beacon ...... 20 Scenario 3 Creative Growth...... 23 20-40 Outcomes of Creative Growth...... 24 Scenario 4 Lagom ...... 27 20-40 Outcomes of Lagom ...... 28 Comparative Summary of the Four Scenarios ...... 31 Westernport Bay Region Scenario-planning Survey ...... 33 Conclusions ...... 37

Appendices Appendix 1: Sustainable Development Goals ...... 38 Appendix 2: Workshop participants ...... 40

Figures Figure 1: Axes and quadrants for the Westernport Bay Region scenarios ...... 9 Figure 2: Land use in the Westernport Bay Region ...... 12 Figure 3: The WesternFreePort quadrant ...... 15 Figure 4: WesternFreePort proposals ...... 17 Figure 5: The Beacon quadrant ...... 19 Figure 6: The Beacon proposals ...... 21 Figure 7: Creative Growth quadrant ...... 23 Figure 8: Creative Growth proposals ...... 26 Figure 9: Lagom quadrant ...... 27 Figure 10: Lagom proposals ...... 30

Tables Table 1: Comparative summary of the four scenarios ...... 31

4 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION Group participants at the Westernport Bay Region scenario-planning workshop on Phillip Island

5 Executive Summary

he Victorian Government analysed potential future scenarios training. is planning to build an that could secure or undermine the T The Creative Growth scenario international container port at economic, social and environmental has technocratic and top-down Hastings, on the western shores futures of the Westernport Bay promotion and management of of Westernport Bay, which could Region. development using innovative significantly change the economy After a series of presentations on technology to monitor and regulate and ecology of the region. Day 1, workshop participants were compliance to achieve sustainable Following the release of the divided into four groups, each with development goals within a locally Australian Conservation the task of developing a plausible conventional economic framework. Foundation’s preliminary study into 2040 scenario for the Westernport The Port of Hastings is redeveloped the ecological values of Westernport Bay Region. on the existing footprint to allow Bay, Professor Robert Costanza, one small container ships to load of the world’s leading ecological The narrative of each scenario and unload without the need for economists, recommended a was dependent on the extent to channel or port deepening. scenario-planning workshop to which policies for conventional economic development and UN The Lagom scenario is a shed light on the alternative futures community-based and collectivist for the Westernport Bay Region. sustainable development goals were implemented in and beyond the approach to implementing Scenario planning explores region. sustainable development goals with and evaluates plausible futures the full support of the Victorian that have been used to guide The four groups each developed and federal governments and regional development, corporate a different 2040 scenario for the international agreements and strategy, political transition and Westernport Bay Region. frameworks. The Port of Hastings community-based natural resource The WesternFreePort scenario is retrofitted to allow use by small, management. pursues regional economic growth, fuel-efficient vessels. This report summarises the supported by the conventional Each group presented their scenario outcomes of the scenario-planning economic development policies to a plenary session on Day 5 of the workshop held on Phillip Island at state, federal and international workshop. levels and with little concern for its from 28 July to 1 August 2014, A public opinion survey was then environmental impact. This scenario organised by Preserve Western Port conducted during September and presumes that the planned major Action Group and the Victorian October 2014 to determine how development of the Port of Hastings National Parks Association, the broader community viewed the facilitated by the Australian proceeded. scenarios. The results and analysis National University and generously The Beacon scenario has the of this survey are included in this supported by the Bass Coast Shire community of the Westernport Bay final report. Council. Region resisting the conventional Academics, key regional decision economic policies of the Victorian makers, strategic planners, and federal governments to ensure scientists, business people, sustainable regional development. local councillors and members The Port of Hastings is smaller than of community groups, in all now and used by small domestic representing 40 organisations, and international vessels and those attended the workshop where they for local cruises, dive tourism and

6 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION The Scenario-planning Workshop

Scenario-planning 3. There are many possible futures; Australians regarding what futures scenarios therefore map within a they would prefer, how those methodology ‘possibility space’ preferences might differ between individuals and groups, and what (This is an edited extract from the 2014 4. Scenario development involves report by Costanza et al, Scenarios for the basis of those differences might both rational analysis and creative Australia in 2050: A synthesis and proposed be. survey) thinking. The most commonly used processes redicting the future is Scenarios are best suited to for developing scenarios of impossible, but laying out a exploring situations of high P plausible futures include: a focus series of plausible future scenarios uncertainty and low controllability; is possible. These scenarios can on some specific aspects of the for example, climate change future (e.g. energy production and enable the understanding of future and global governance are consumption); consideration of possibilities or storylines and also largely beyond the control of what factors might affect those clarify the complex uncertainties a particular region. In these aspects; assessment of what is surrounding them. They have situations, scenarios can help to relatively certain and what is become an important way to illuminate the consequences of uncertain; exploration of the inform decision-making with a these uncontrollable forces and to most critical uncertainties; and, whole-system perspective under formulate robust responses locally. consideration of what insights uncertainty. Importantly, scenarios can help to emerge and what actions might ‘Scenario’ is a term with multiple reveal policy and value changes that be relevant in the short, medium, meanings. Scenario exercises vary may be required, and key branching and longer term to shape the in their objectives and hence their points at which such changes can future or prepare for threats and characteristics. We define scenario most affect outcomes. opportunities that might not be analysis or scenario planning as a Several scenario-planning exercises under our control. There is a range structured process of exploring and have been conducted in recent of methods to identify and explore evaluating the future. years at a range of spatial scales critical uncertainties, and these can lead to different themes and foci for Scenarios are essentially stories that and for a range of purposes, scenarios. consider how alternative futures, including: global futures, corporate typically related to a particular strategy, political transition and Since the 1970s, a complementary focal issue, may unfold from community-based natural resource approach has emerged that seeks combinations of highly influential management. to synthesise and build on the sorts of approaches described above. It and uncertain drivers, and their For example, one of the best-known has been observed that the vast interactions with more certain scenario-planning exercises on majority of scenarios developed driving forces. the global level was in the Special around the world fall into a small Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario planning differs from number of types, or “archetypes”. (SRES). These scenarios have been forecasting, projections, and These archetypes range around widely used to study the potential predictions, in that it explores the topics of growth, discipline/ impacts of future climates, especially plausible rather than probable restraint, transformation, and within the Intergovernmental Panel futures. Although aspects of the collapse narratives. By focussing on on Climate Change (IPCC) process. future worlds depicted by scenarios these archetypes, different groups may come to eventuate, these The SRES scenarios are based on such as communities, businesses, worlds are often best viewed as four global “storylines” (termed government agencies, and others caricatures of reality from which we the A1, A2, B1, and B2 worlds, can quickly generate dialogue about can learn. respectively) representing different how such futures might emerge, Scenario planning is based on four world futures based on two distinct what they might look and feel like, assumptions: axes or dimensions: (1) economic and what the implications might versus environmental concerns, be. A range of critical uncertainties 1. The future is unlike the past, and and (2) globalised versus regional/ might be considered simultaneously is significantly shaped by human national-based development in such exercises, with an emphasis choice and action patterns. These two axes define of acknowledging and considering 2. The future cannot be foreseen, four distinct quadrants for future diverse understandings and but exploring possible futures can development. Scenarios could be viewpoints. inform present decisions used to encourage dialogue among

7 Most of the scenarios that have and academics, consultants and axis at the local scale. Figure 1 been created at the Australian scientists. More than 70 people, illustrates this and identifies the four national scale have focused on representing 40 organisations, quadrants and scenarios now briefly Market Forces and Policy Reform attended over the five days (see described. archetypes, with little consideration Appendix 2 for the full list of Quadrant 1/Scenario 1 has of transformational or collapse participants). conventional economic futures. The agenda and process for the development polices at the local, Living scenario processes require a five-day workshop were as follows. national and global scale. starting point – initial scenarios that Rapid economic growth is a wide audience can respond to Day 1 prioritised in the WesternFreePort and hence inform ongoing scenario A plenary of 75 people listened scenario, with environmental discussion and evolution. to presentations and engaged in impacts seen as unfortunate discussions about the scenario- but necessary for economic planning process, community development. This ‘everyone-for- Applying the planning and the future of the Port themselves’ response has limited of Hastings. The presentations were government interference. The major scenario-planning made by: expansion of the Port of Hastings proceeded as planned in 2014. methodology at the • Victoria University representative workshop Peter Van Duyn, who based his Quadrant 2/Scenario 2: presentation on the paper “Build Conventional economic The Westernport Bay Region it but will they come?”, which development policies are being scenario-planning workshop was considers it unlikely that mega- pursued at the national and held on Phillip Island between 28 container ships will come to global scale. Locally, however, the July and 1 August 2014. Victoria, even if the expansion of community is working to implement The workshop was organised by the the Port of Hastings proceeds polices consistent with the UN Victorian National Parks Association sustainable development goals. • Steve Cork, on scenario planning and the Preserve Western Port in Australia In The Beacon scenario the Action Group, generously supported community in the Westernport Bay by the Bass Coast Shire Council and • Barbara Norman, on community Region is resisting conventional facilitated by Dr Robert Costanza, planning. economic development policies. Chair in Public Policy at Crawford The biophysical limits to growth School of Public Policy, ANU College Day 2-4 are recognised, sustainable of Asia & the Pacific. Four small groups (five to six people development goals are targeted The objective of the workshop was in each) worked for the three days within a regional governance to develop and evaluate a range of developing scenarios and 2040 structure, and equity and quality scenarios for the Westernport Bay outcomes for the Westernport Bay of life issues are a key focus. The Region that could include: Region. Port of Hastings expansion did not proceed and it is now used by small 1. A projection of current trends At the beginning of Day 2 the participants agreed on the domestic and international vessels, 2. A major international container along with local cruise, diving and constructs for each of the four port development at Hastings training vessels. scenarios. These were based on 3. An emphasis on tourism, the scale and influence of policies Quadrant 3/Scenario 3: Locally, economics and environment that for conventional economic conventional economic includes the value of ecosystem development and UN sustainable development policies are being services. development goals. pursued but are heavily influenced by the national and global pursuit Invitations to attend were sent The vertical and horizontal axes of UN sustainable development to a wide variety of stakeholders had conventional economic goals. including business organisations development policies and UN associated with shipping and sustainable development goal The Creative Growth scenario tourism, decision makers policies at either end. However, the outlines a technocracy with a in government, social and vertical axis was on the national regional body working with the environmental community groups, and global scale and the horizontal community to simultaneously

8 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION achieve the UN sustainable the appropriate achievement of Day 5 development goals and economic the UN Sustainable Development The larger group plenary from Day Goals using a community-based, growth. It uses smart technology, 1 reassembled to hear the 2040 equitable and collectivist approach. innovative developments and outcomes of the four scenarios. top-down regulations, with The Port of Hastings is retrofitted strict compliance measures to to allow use by small, fuel-efficient What follows in this report are a: vessels. encourage growth, overcome • description of the Westernport environmental limitations and Narratives for each scenario Bay Region minimise environmental impacts. were prepared by the groups to • detailed description of each The Port of Hastings is redeveloped describe its features in relation to scenario, including information on the existing footprint to allow governance, economy, community, about the 2040 outcomes for small container ships to load and built infrastructure and the natural governance, economy, community, unload without the need for further environment. Maps were also built infrastructure and the natural channel deepening. prepared to show the location environment, and maps showing of key scenario proposals in the Quadrant 4/Scenario 4: Sustainable the location of key proposals for Westernport Bay Region. development goals are being each scenario implemented, driven at the local, On completing their scenario, each • summary of the impacts of each group was asked to conduct a self- national and global scales. scenario on a series of parameters assessment to estimate its impact Lagom is Swedish for enough, on natural, social, human and • summary of the key features of sufficient, adequate, just right, in built capital, natural upland areas, each scenario. moderation, in balance, perfect, estuarine waters and agriculture/ simple and suitable. The Lagom urban areas (see Appendix 3). scenario has as its prime focus

Conventional Economic Development Policies (CEDs): National and Global

1. WesternFreePort 2. The Beacon CEDs in CED world SDGs in CED world

CEDs Locally SDGs Locally

3. Creative Growth 4. Lagom CEDs in SDG world SDGs in SDG world

Sustainable Development Goal Policies (SDGs): National and Global

Figure 1: Axes and quadrants for the Westernport Bay Region scenarios.

9 The Westernport Bay Region

he catalyst for the Westernport Victoria’s bird species are found wedge and one of Melbourne’s TBay Region scenario-planning in and around the bay, along with growth corridors within their workshop was the Victorian breeding colonies of little penguins, borders, the region’s greatest value government’s planned expansion koalas, Australian fur seals, of agricultural production is in the of the Port of Hastings on the bay’s hooded plovers and short-tailed beef, milk, poultry and egg sectors. north-western shore. However, shearwaters. However, that value represents only this was only one of many a small portion of Victoria’s total A number of conservation matters considered by workshop production for those products. In reserves have been established to participants when developing contrast, more than 50% of the protect the natural values of the plausible futures for the Port of state’s celery, leeks, herbs, silver Westernport Bay Region. These Hastings, the bay and its catchment. beet, radishes and spring onions, include the three marine national and 90% of its asparagus, are parks at Churchill Island, French grown on the peaty and sandy soils Island and Yaringa, the Phillip Natural values once covered by the Koo-wee-rup Island Nature Parks, the Point Swamp. The land catchment of Westernport Nepean, Mornington Peninsula and Annual agricultural production in Bay is located to the east and French Island national parks, and a the Casey-Cardinia area is valued south-east of Melbourne – Hastings number of small reserves protecting at more than $400 million, a similar is 70 kilometres and Cowes 140 fragments of the catchment’s figure for the Mornington Peninsula kilometres from Melbourne by road original vegetation cover. where vegetables, beef, lamb, – and covers more than 3,000 km2. In 2002 the Westernport Bay chickens, grapes and other fruits are It stretches north to Cockatoo and Region was proclaimed a UNESCO produced. These and the beef and the hills in the upper reaches of the Biosphere Reserve, recognising dairy products in the Bass Coast Bunyip River, west to Point Nepean its outstanding natural values on Shire are part of what is becoming a at the entrance to Port Phillip Bay, the fringe of Melbourne. It covers food bowl for Melbourne. and east to Nyora, Drouin and the 2,100 km2 and includes Mornington Strzelecki Ranges. Peninsula, all of Westernport Urban expansion is largely occurring on the Mornington Peninsula The shallow waters of Westernport Bay and the southern part of and through the growth corridor Bay, which have a tidal range of 3 the bay’s catchment. The aim of in the catchment’s north around metres, cover 680 km2 and include the reserve, and the Biosphere Pakenham and Berwick (most of 270 km2 of mudflats exposed at Foundation, its board and advisory Cranbourne’s growth is in Port low tide. Within the bay there are panel, is to foster conservation Phillip Bay’s catchment). Coastal two large islands—Phillip Island and a sustainable future for the towns now have growth boundaries (100 km2) and French Island Westernport Bay Region through in place to restrict their spatial (170km2)—and internationally research, education, community extent. important mangroves, saltmarshes, engagement, partnerships and on- seagrass meadows and soft seabed ground conservation efforts. In the far north of the catchment, habitats. Rocky reefs and sandy timber is taken from state forests beaches border the southern shores while Westernport Bay is a base for of Mornington Peninsula, Phillip Land use commercial fishing fleets and many Island and the Bunurong coast to anglers and sailors throughout the the east. The whole of Westernport Figure 2 shows land use in the year. Bay is listed under the Convention Westernport Bay Region and reveals Industrial development is centred on Wetlands of International that dryland grazing (beef and along the north-western shoreline Importance (Ramsar). dairy) covers much of the area, of Westernport Bay at Hastings-Crib although its spatial extent has been There are 330 terrestrial native Point-Stony Point where the Port of in gradual decline as Melbourne species—89 are threatened—living Hastings, Bluescope Steel (flat steel has expanded. Even so, the value in habitats around Westernport production facility with an uncertain of production has remained Bay, while its wetlands have more future after recent major job cuts), relatively constant because of more than 630 species of invertebrates, Esso (LPG processing and crude oil efficient and intensive production fish, birds and mammals. Thirty- storage and distribution at Long techniques. six migratory bird species fly into Island Point) and other industry is the bay each year from their Asian In the Casey and Cardinia based. HMAS Cerberus, located at breeding grounds. Around 65% of municipalities, which have a green Crib Point, is a naval training facility.

10 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION Tourism is increasingly important to wee-rup Swamp (400km2 in area). failed to recover and in other areas the Westernport Bay Region. In the The vegetation was cleared and recovery has been hampered by Bass Coast Shire alone it accounts the swamp drained (from the poor water quality. The Western for 5,000 jobs and contributes more 1890s); the drainage channels Port Seagrass Partnership is working than $600 million each year to the are now ‘creeks’ discharging into to ensure a healthier future for local economy. The internationally Westernport Bay. seagrasses and mangroves in famous Penguin Parade, where Westernport Bay engaging in Small remnants of native vegetation each year more than a million research, education, restoration and are scattered across private land in visitors come at dusk to watch little replanting projects. the Westernport Bay Region, but penguins returning from feeding at forests have been retained in the The loss of vegetation cover and sea, is the major tourist attraction. Bunyip State Park and state forests drainage of the Koo-wee-rup The other major area of tourism is in the region’s upper catchment, Swamp have had profound effects on the Mornington Peninsula where while others are included in a on siltation, turbidity and the loss of it is valued at more than $200million number of other conservation seagrass meadows in Westernport each year. reserves. Bay. Landfill, clearing and Public transport is largely limited to agricultural, urban and industrial Most of the remnant ecological buses on major routes, a short rail development have impacted on the vegetation classes are either line (non-electrified) from Frankston extent of mangroves and saltmarsh. Endangered or Vulnerable and to Stony Point, the Melbourne to These and climate change, water largely found on the Mornington Gippsland railway line through pollution, introduced marine Peninsula and the elevated land east Berwick, Pakenham and Drouin pests, land degradation and water of Westernport Bay in the shires along the city’s growth corridor, pollution are the major ongoing of Bass Coast and Cardinia (south- and a passenger ferry service from threats for the natural values of the eastern corner). Very few remnants Stony Point to French Island and Westernport Bay Region. exist in the former Koo-wee-rup Cowes. The main public roads Swamp or the City of Casey. are the Princes Freeway, South Gippsland Highway, Bass Highway, Fringing Westernport Bay are A growing population Western Port Highway, Mornington about 1,000 hectares of saltmarsh, Peninsula Freeway and Point approximately 450 hectares There are four local municipalities Nepean Road. below what existed at the time of with boundaries that connect with European settlement. Agricultural Westernport Bay. They are the Shire development has removed large of Mornington Peninsula, the City areas but the inland migration of of Casey and the shires of Cardinia A changing mangroves has also contributed to and Bass Coast. Parts of the South environment the loss. Gippsland and Baw Baw shires are also found within the region’s The natural environment that Mangroves cover more than 1,800 catchment. existed in the Westernport Bay hectares around the shoreline of Region before 19th century Westernport Bay, with large areas The northern part of the catchment European settlement has been at Quail Island and the Inlets on the is in one of Melbourne’s growth extensively modified. Dryland northern shore, and at the mouth of corridors and the region’s grazing is now the dominant the Bass River in the bay’s south- population is steadily increasing. land use but is gradually being eastern corner. Although there was Based on the 2011 census, replaced by intensive agriculture, extensive clearance of mangroves population projections by the urban development and lifestyle in the early 19th century to produce Australian Bureau of Statistics and properties. The region’s market barilla for use in soap and glass growth extrapolations for this gardens are also under threat from making, the mangroves have report, it is estimated that the a rapidly expanding Melbourne. recovered, largely by moving inland population of the Westernport and replacing saltmarsh. Bay Region will grow from roughly Before European colonisation 400,000 (in 2011) to more than and the subsequent growth of In 1974 there were 250 km2 of 600,000 by 2040. Melbourne and agriculture, the seagrass meadows but by 1984 this Westernport Bay Region was had declined to 72 km2. The area The most-rapid population increases covered in forests, woodlands, recorded in 2011 had increased will be along the Melbourne growth heathlands and the vast Koo- to 150 km2 but large areas have corridor in the northern parts of

11 r

T Baw Baw Baw Baw Council Shire Lang Lang River R iver ip y n u B Bass River South Gippsland Council Shire • Pakenham Bass Coast Coast Bass Shire

k ree inia C Cardinia Cardinia Council Shire Card French Island French Westernport Bay Westernport Casey City Casey Council • Cowes • Hastings Phillip Island • Frankston • Flinders Port Phillip Bay Mornington Peninsula Mornington Council Shire Horticulture & Reserves Forests Urban Dryland Grazing Remnant Vegetation Native Figure 2: Land use in the Westernport Bay Region. Figure

12 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION Casey (Victoria’s second-fastest passenger ferries also use the Stony the Port of Hastings is located. growing municipality) and Cardinia, Point Jetty, along with fishing boats Although Westernport Bay is and oil exploration vessels. and the slowest in the Shire of dubbed a natural deep-water port, Bass Coast, including Phillip Island, The Victorian government has it is not, for ongoing dredging is while French Island is unlikely to begun the planning for a major required to maintain the 14-metre see any population increase at all. expansion of the port, based on the depth of the shipping channel. This Casey, Cardinia and Mornington premise that the port of Melbourne would need deepening to 16 metres Peninsula municipalities are where will reach capacity in 10-15 years to cater for the mega-container the greatest numbers of people will but that container traffic will vessels (12,000-18,000 containers) be living. continue growing. envisaged for the expanded port, with additional dredging in the port Currently the government and anchorage areas, all of which Expansion of the Port is spending $110 million on could have wide-ranging impacts scoping, design, preparation for on the Westernport Bay Region. of Hastings environmental approvals, business case development and procurement More than 3,000 ships could be The Port of Hastings, in the north- and delivery strategies, with using Westernport Bay each year western corner of Westernport Bay, construction planned between 2018 – currently it is 100 – if the port covers about 3,500 hectares and and 2025 for an initial capacity of expansion goes ahead. Such a huge eight kilometres of shoreline, with three million containers that would expansion of shipping traffic would facilities that include the Stony Point increase to nine million by 2060. increase the potential for oil spills jetty and depot, Crib Point and Long that research has shown could reach Island Point liquid berths and the If that capacity is reached, it sensitive habitats within hours. BlueScope Steel jetty. has been estimated by Victoria University’s Institute for Supply However, serious doubts have been Up to 100 vessels use the port each Chain and Logistics that 1.5 million cast over whether Australian ports year for the import and export of B-double trucks and 50,000 trains will ever see mega-container ships around 5 million tonnes of goods would each year travel through due to the fragmented distribution including oil, liquid petroleum gas, Melbourne to distribute the of containers between Australia’s unleaded petrol and steel, but it containers, largely because the capital cities and their relatively is also the terminal for gas and oil goods distribution network is small markets. pipelines supplying local markets. located in the north and west of The Cowes and French Island Melbourne, not to the east where FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION

WESTERNFREEPORT ...... P15

THE BEACON ...... P19

CREATIVE GROWTH ...... P23

LAGOM ...... P27

14 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION 1: WesternFreePort

Overview Economy Natural Environment he world economy has • Bold conventional • Coastal erosion Tcontinued to expand economic development • Increased turbidity and conventional economic • Increased rate of GDP growth • Climate change brings more development policies are used to • Increased inequality/worsening damaging storms encourage economic growth in the income distribution • Acid-sulphate soils released, Westernport Bay Region. A small- • Substantial urban growth turbidity and heavy metals government approach places few pollution increases if any restrictions on industry and • Damage to biodiversity commerce. Community LAGOM • Reduced environmental stability The massive expansion of the • Increased labour Port of Hastings to accommodate immigration and inequality in nine million containers by 2060 employment and income Built Infrastructure proceeded, along with its sale to • High-density living with reduced • New mega-container port a port development consortium, environmental amenity • Container Freight Network the funds from which were used • Privatised health and education implemented to develop the Westernport Bay with inequality of access Region with little concern for • Coastal walls control erosion • User-pays principle environmental sustainability or • Tunnel connecting Phillip Island to social equity. • Individual wellbeing mainland • Commercial recreational • Fun park, aquarium, casinos opportunities increased • French Island sand mine Governance • Tyabb airport expanded • Increased corporate • Coal rail link to Moe (Latrobe and business influence Valley) over decision making • Governance poorly integrated

Conventional Economic Development Policies (CEDs): National and Global

1. WesternFreePort 2. The Beacon CEDs in CED world SDGs in CED world

CEDs Locally SDGs Locally

3. Creative Growth 4. Lagom CEDs in SDG world SDGs in SDG world

Sustainable Development Goal Policies (SDGs): Figure 3: The WesternFreePort quadrant National and Global

15 WESTERNFREEPORT IN 2040

Governance encourage international visitors. The privately built and tolled underwater tunnel from Stony Point Other family-focused tourism he Victorian Government to Cowes has two-lane traffic in highlights are the penguins at the Tcontinues to promote and either direction. support the Westernport Bay Penguin Parade and the seals at Region’s goal of economic growth Seal Rocks. To maximise the island’s The town of Hastings has and development. income stream, there is now a fun quadrupled in size (8,685 people at park, ‘Funland’, a zoo, an aquarium, the 2011 census) due to increased A number of departments are ‘Sea World’, a giant rollercoaster, industrial activity in the Westernport responsible for the management and fairy penguins, great white Bay Region, while housing and of various activities to achieve that sharks, orcas and whales etc. in population have increased ten-fold goal. They include the Environment super-large tanks. to service industrial, urban and Protection Authority, Department of tourism development. Environment and Primary Industry, To make it easier for tourists to get Department of Planning and to Phillip Island, there is now an The Victorian Freight Network Community Development, Tourism undersea tunnel – a bridge would enables freight trains with Victoria and the Department of have obstructed container shipping containers to enter the Melbourne Transport. – from Stony Point to Cowes. CBD on an overhead rail line through the south-eastern suburbs The region’s energy requirements Shire councils are fully committed of Melbourne. A rail link has also are met by the burning of cheap to developing their municipalities been built to the coalmines of the and plentiful brown coal resources to maximise GDP and employment, Latrobe Valley. ahead of public amenity. from the nearby Latrobe Valley. The East-West Link connects trucks Environmental ‘red tape’ has been Industrial development and to the city to deliver the goods from minimised to facilitate more rapid housing/urban intensification have containers to various outlets. growth. followed the port’s development, The Hastings Port Authority all of which have maximised The Tyabb airport has been Inc. replaced the public Port of GDP, jobs and opportunities for substantially expanded to increase Hastings Development Authority entrepreneurs. imports/exports and now also caters for increased national and and operates the Port Zone. Rules Due to the Westernport Bay international tourism. are only used to ensure the safe Region’s vastly expanded and efficient running of the port; construction industry, especially there is little or no accountability or on Phillip Island and at Hastings, transparency in decision-making. French Island is mined as a local Community source of building sand, which is Transport Safety Victoria (Marine With the intense development in loaded onto barges at a new port Safety Board/Parks Victoria) the region, the gap between rich on the former Tankerton Jetty site. regulates the use of Westernport and poor has increased while the Bay’s waterways. As a result of the population has rapidly expanded – dominance of shipping, there is the more people, the better is the now reduced public access and a Built infrastructure philosophy of WesternFreePort. stronger regulation of public and The container port, coal loader and High-density living has reduced commercial boating. associated development are fully environmental amenity and Marine Protected Areas remain operational, with 10 mega-container the privatisation of health and under the control of Parks Victoria. ships using the port each day. The education has led to inequity of shipping channel and turning area access – emphasising the user-pays have been dredged to 16 metres to principle. accommodate the larger ships. Economy For reasons of safety and port Phillip Island is now a place for A marked increase in the cost efficiency, anglers are no longer mega-tourism, the duty-free of container movements within able to fish around the port, the playground of the south, i.e. Victoria, due to the increased costs dredged shipping lanes and the a special economic zone with associated with the port expansion turning bays. casinos and related high-roller project, has been passed onto infrastructure. It is promoted consumers. throughout the world to

16 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION r

T Baw Baw Baw Baw Council Shire Lang Lang River R iver ip y n u B Bass River South Gippsland Council Shire • Pakenham Bass Coast Coast Bass Shire

k ree inia C Cardinia Cardinia Council Shire Card French Island French Westernport Bay Westernport • Sand mine • Sand mine Hastings Free Trade Zone Spoil Zone disposal Trade Hastings Free Casey City Casey Council Tunnel to Cowes to Tunnel Turning Turning basin • Cowes • Spoil disposal • Dandenong • Hastings Phillip Island • Frankston Dredge Channel • Flinders Port Phillip Bay Mornington Peninsula Mornington Council Shire Horticulture & Reserves Forests Urban Dryland Grazing Remnant Vegetation Native Industrial Dredging Figure 4: WesternFreePort proposals

17 WESTERNFREEPORT IN 2040

Natural Environment now occurring off Point Leo and an issue when ships fail to follow other parts of the bay where it is regulations and release ballast water Climate change continues with used to build islands and reclaim in port, introducing marine pest rising sea levels and more frequent land e.g. the ongoing expansion of species. and stronger storms. To combat the Port of Hastings. The spoil takes Other environmental considerations coastal erosion, which has been years to dry before buildings can be are too costly for the Port of exacerbated by the increased tidal erected on it. flow caused by dredging, extensive Hastings Inc. to address including: Dumping close to the shore and for coastal rock and cement walls have • Requiring energy efficiency and island building is carefully planned been constructed, requiring the clean fuels removal of fringing habitats around due to three-metre tidal range • Oil spillages during refueling of Westernport Bay. in Western Port. However, it has raised turbidity in the bay and the ships Local councils are implementing Department of Environment and • High risk of accidents, including some planning policies but, other Primary Industries may in the future from storm events. than requiring new houses to be require that areas of seagrass be raised by 800 mm, there are no carefully monitored. The increased development of other climate adaptation measures industry and urban growth has Air pollution from ships’ exhausts being implemented. increased pollution from acid- has become a regional health issue, sulphate soils, turbidity, heavy The necessary dredging of the but the shipping industry opposes metals and hydrocarbons, bringing shipping channels and anchorage stringent fuel regulations that with it damage to biodiversity and a has increased turbidity and caused require the sole use of ultra-low reduction in environmental stability. the dieback of seagrass meadows sulphur fuels in Australian waters. and a reduction in the number of The industry threatened to stop These and other impacts are fish that anglers could target. trade to Australia if the government regarded as a necessary if unfortunate consequence of The dumping of dredge spoil, tried to enforce the law. pursuing the bold development initially proposed for Bass Strait, is Ship ballast water continues to be agenda of WesternFreePort.

18 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION Scenario 2: The Beacon

Overview Economy Natural Environment he Victorian Government’s plan • Diversified growth • Significant Tto massively expand the Port of areas in ecotourism, environmental repair Hastings failed to proceed due to agriculture, education, specialised and reestablishment of wetlands its logistics, associated costs and manufacturing to mitigate runoff, sediment and the potential for overwhelming • Existing port continues with chemicals reaching the bay environmental impacts from potential to upgrade for other • Best-practice agricultural policies dredging. However, Victoria and the technologically focused uses • Climate change: major issues are rest of the world continued down • Leveraging off existing/new events sea level rises and warming water the business-as-usual path, with the • Equitable real estate policies cater • Renewables: wind, water, solar emphasis on economic growth and for all incomes energy focus no regard for sustainability goals. • Entrance fees fund tourist sites People in the Westernport Bay • Maritime and airport transport Built Infrastructure Region recognised that action was expansion needed to reverse the decline of • Fully integrated social, economic and environmental transport system with upgrade of assets and to become a best- road and rail and a new airport practice model – The Beacon – for Community • Specialised education and regional sustainable development. • Economic, social research centres and environmental equality in • Existing port maintained but communities Governance later converted for sustainable • Improved health and wellbeing development • Regional municipalities from use of new recreational • Car ferry Stony Point to Cowes collaborate facilities • Upgraded communications • New regional institutions • Indigenous Bunurong Dreaming network promotes smart coordinate regional planning culture integrated businesses and better work-life • Indigenous community balance involvement in planning

Conventional Economic Development Policies (CEDs): National and Global

1. WesternFreePort 2. The Beacon SDGs in CED world CEDs in CED world

CEDs Locally SDGs Locally

3. Creative Growth 4. Lagom CEDs in SDG world SDGs in SDG world

Sustainable Development Goal Policies (SDGs): National and Global Figure 5: The Beacon quadrant

19 THE BEACON IN 2040

Governance Tourism in the region has increased In conjunction with the deployment threefold, with local governments of the light-rail system, a private ISP he Westernport Bay Region’s encouraging recreational, rolled out a fibre-optic backbone Tmunicipalities, community and ecotourism and agritourism. within the region and enabled the business developed a common In 2014 Phillip Island attracted 3.5 development of Wi-Fi hotspots and resolve for regional development smart industry. consistent with the UN Sustainable million visitors, the vast majority with the sole objective of visiting Development Goals. To achieve that, This integrated transport/ the ‘Penguin Parade’ and staying they followed a more economically, communications network now in the region for just a few hours. socially and environmentally circumnavigates Westernport But in 2040, incentives are now sustainable path with the natural Bay, connecting Phillip Island’s encouraging tourists to remain for environment as the primary asset. infrastructure to the heavy-rail a minimum of 24 hours, yielding system at Pakenham, Cranbourne CEOs and representatives from the significant additional revenues to and Hastings. Mornington Peninsula, Bass Coast, the region. Casey, Cardinia, Frankston, Baw Baw The Blue Scope Steel infrastructure Smart industry (e.g. high-tech) was and South Gippsland municipalities at Hastings, which was vacant in encouraged by the development established an advisory group 2014, was re-established as the of a fibre-optic communications tasked with establishing a ‘Special Marine Research and Maritime infrastructure. This and the Academy. Economic and Environmental improved transport to the city make Bubble’ (SEEB). it easier for people to work from The Port of Hastings is now used The region’s municipalities home and enhance their work-life to support training and research collaborate to realise the vision, balance. vessels, vessels used for bay cruises, whale watching and diving, and while new institutions coordinate Marine research and education has smaller, high-speed overnight and legislate for the planning and become a significant contributor to cruise vessels visiting local points of management of the region. the region’s economic activity, as interest and providing sea transport too a second airport. Consultation-based self- services to Wilsons Promontory, the determination was seen as desirable Bass Strait islands and Tasmania. to avoid being subject to the whims of global enterprises and Built infrastructure All new residential developments the Victorian government. Local are mandated to have 9-Star Indigenous communities also play The first initiative to address the ecoratings, with community based a vital role in regional planning and job losses in Hastings in 2014 was ‘geo-exchange’ infrastructure for management. the duplication and electrification efficient heating and cooling. of the rail line from Stony Point to Frankston. This created a seamless The establishment of a rich and connection into the metropolitan diverse range of educational, Economy rail network, opened up the region residential, cultural, agricultural and industrial activities has justified the The 2014 closure of BlueScope to new job opportunities and development of an international Steel in Hastings was at the time provided better access to the region for tourists. airport for the easy movement an economic disaster for the of residents and tourists and the Westernport Bay Region. On Phillip Island a flexible, export of the region’s high-value However, an important component accessible and scalable transport horticultural and hi-tech products. of regional economic development system wrested control of tourist Trails and board walks now run from policies are opportunities for niche movements from city-based tour San Remo to Hastings, catering for producers of high-value produce operators. The transport system alleviated the logjam of vehicles activities such as walking, cycling coupled with agritourism. that had previously occurred during and birdwatching, and include Niche industries e.g. cheeses, wines, major tourism events. A light-rail environmentally friendly camp beers and cottage industry products transport system on Phillip Island sites to cater to users of the trail, are encouraged and supported by offers cheap fixed fares, spectacular as well as kayakers and trailer the Westernport Cooperative, which ocean/bay views, and packages sailboats. There are also underwater assists with sales, marketing and that include entrance fees to major marine observatories and guided distribution. attractions. snorkeling trails.

20 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION r

T Baw Baw Baw Baw Council Shire Lang Lang River R iver ip y n u B Bass River South Gippsland Council Shire • Niche agriculture • Pakenham Bass Coast Coast Bass Shire

k ree inia C Cardinia Cardinia Council Shire Card French Island French Westernport Bay Westernport Casey City Casey Council • Light Rail System • Cowes • Maritime / Sustainability Campuses Car Ferry • Hastings • Marine Research and • Marine Research Maritime Academy Phillip Island • Frankston • Flinders • Niche agriculture Port Phillip Bay Mornington Peninsula Mornington Council Shire New Conservation Reserves Industrial Horticulture & Reserves Forests Urban Dryland Grazing Remnant Vegetation Native Wetlands

Figure 6: The Beacon proposals

21 THE BEACON IN 2040

Community needs and includes recreational and rise. A foreshore buffer zone was cultural facilities. established, and the integration of Environmental and social stability high-value residential development is more important than economic with saltwater wetlands, mangrove, growth in the Westernport Bay Natural Environment saltmarsh, freshwater creeks Region. and billabongs, allowed the re- Various programs promote In 2014 it was recognised that introduction of species such as the community health and wellbeing, the Westernport Ramsar site was platypus. degraded. Mangrove clearing using new recreational facilities The buffer wetlands now provide and wetland drainage for farming and yielding benefits from reduced Ramsar habitat and meandering were causing sedimentation, algal health care costs. channels for stormwater, flood growth, seagrass depletion and mitigation and the filtering of There is an ongoing regional aggressive erosion, especially on the contaminated agricultural runoff. commitment to integrate eastern shore of Westernport Bay. Indigenous Bunurong Dreaming The entire French Island is now a The Westernport Bay Region was culture and performing and visual designated national park, farmland a significant but neglected and arts into community life. has been revegetated, feral and underused natural asset, with the invasive species removed, and In addition to the environmental existing Ramsar site and marine facilities established that cater for component, housing development reserves the ‘Jewels in the Crown’. has incorporated affordable exclusive ecotourism and limited community housing in a ‘salt and Action was taken to adapt the residential development. pepper’ mix that now caters to all coastline to minimise the effects of erosion, storm surge and sea level

22 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION Scenario 3: Creative Growth

Overview • Strict compliance regime to ensure • Volunteers work to improve sustainable growth environment, care for vulnerable he business plan for a major • Strategic planning overlays people and support sporting and Texpansion of the Port of Hastings recreational activities failed, replaced by a reconfigured port that largely retained the Economy existing footprint but allowed the Built Infrastructure loading and unloading of small • Port of Hastings • Rail to a new container ships. adapted for small container ships Dandenong Container The Westernport Regional Hub • Innovative and technologically Council continues to implement advanced manufacturing • Smart roads include water conventional economic industries sensitive design, wildlife crossings development policies but within • Focus for Melbourne’s health and the context of national and • Intensified agriculture medical research UN Sustainable Development • Incentive scheme to encourage Goals. Smart technology and green and blue carbon farming • Desalination plant fully operational infrastructure, along with centralised • Car ferry (Stony Point to Cowes) • High-speed broadband planning and a strict regulatory and a new airport at Caldermeade • Hi-tech pollution and waste compliance regime are used to • Growth in sustainable housing management and water recycling maintain growth while meeting sustainability goals. Community Natural Environment Governance • More equal access to • Climate change action • Consistent with essential services of • French Island BioArk UN Sustainable education and health • Restoration, rehabilitation and Development Goals • Strict limits on openness and revegetation of remnants • Strong national standards within transparency of Regional Council • Environmental bonds on major regional agreements decision making on issues that infrastructure projects and impact the community • Westernport Regional Council Environmental Protection Zones integrates local munipalities for • Increased surveillance of • Biosphere Foundation partnership consistent planning and regulation communities to ensure regulatory compliance Conventional Economic Development Policies (CEDs): National and Global

1. WesternFreePort 2. The Beacon CEDs in CED world SDGs in CED world

CEDs Locally SDGs Locally

3. Creative Growth CEDs in SDG world 4. Lagom SDGs in SDG world

Sustainable Development Goal Policies (SDGs): Figure 7: Creative Growth quadrant National and Global

23 CREATIVE GROWTH IN 2040

Governance to establish on-the-ground tourism has grown significantly sustainability projects. and diversified. Ecotourism ustralia signed international opportunities include whale Aagreements, including an watching, dolphin swims, orchid emissions trading scheme, and has Economy festivals and EarthWatch-type a national framework with standards experiences on French Island. and laws that reflect the nation’s The Port of Hastings expanded New infrastructure supports the commitment to the UN Sustainable its activities but not its footprint, increase in tourist traffic and Development Goals. and was retrofitted to enable the includes a small car ferry between Although the region has continued loading and unloading of small Stony Point and Cowes. There are container ships, reducing the need to implement conventional also increased recreational fishing for dredging. economic development policies, the opportunities with appropriate integrated Westernport Regional Under the Westernport Regional support infrastructure (marinas Council, formed by all councils Council’s managed growth and boat ramps where consistent in the Westernport Bay Region, approach there has been an with Westernport’s natural carrying applies regulations and innovative increase in manufacturing and capacity). technologies to monitor compliance logistics, and a greater use of the The Westernport Bay Region’s and ensure economic growth is Port of Hastings. The Bluescope housing stock has been maintained while also achieving the Steel infrastructure was converted substantially increased and satisfies UN Sustainable Development Goals. for the advanced manufacture a range of needs, including low-cost of innovative technologies, in The Victorian and federal housing and the eco-retrofitting particular renewable energy governments fund the of old housing to serve the technologies (wind turbines, solar municipalities in the Westernport rapidly expanding population in panels) and the conversion of waste. Regional Council to stretch their Melbourne’s growth corridor. This has provided opportunities for economic development policies to The erosion of the Westernport the training of local and overseas meet the UN goals. This funding Bay’s east coast was accepted and apprentices (who take their learning also supports education, economic saltmarsh and mangrove habitats back to their country to aid in its development and ecoplanning/ were allowed to migrate inland, development). urban development. rather than constructing sea walls While the region’s population The focus of regional governance is and levees that stop them. Their has increased significantly, there the efficient and effective delivery stored carbon is sold, along with has been progress towards self- of economic development policies carbon farmed in other parts of the sufficiency and the control and within the limits of the natural region, in the international carbon- management of consumption, environment. Technological and trading scheme. Seagrass meadows waste and energy use: reduce, reuse regulatory solutions have enabled were also given greater protection – and recycle is now a way of life, a the region to support a growing no boating access – to enable their successful business model and a population, protect the natural stored carbon to be traded. major contributor to the region’s environment and encourage innovative economic development. economic development, industrial growth, agriculture/aquaculture, Increased activity in the primary Community community development, industry sector includes commercial Mandated regulations backed by tourism and urban growth. A fishing, carbon farming (blue and severe penalties have transitioned creative balance now exists green), aquaculture, horticulture the Westernport Bay Region and its between economic growth and and intensive dairying. The community towards sustainability. environmental protection. encouragement of organic/ However, the Westernport Regional biodynamic farming has given it The Westernport Regional Council acknowledges that action a competitive edge while at the Council works to ensure a better is always needed to create a more same time minimising the risks to quality of life by achieving better equal society with better education, water quality from agriculture. A environmental practices and health and public transportation new airport has assisted the export econeighbourhoods. It has also for all. The centralised and highly of both primary produce and formed a strong and productive regulatory regional governance manufactured goods. partnership with the Biosphere has statutory obligations for Foundation and industry Domestic and international public comment, but there are

24 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION strict limits on the openness and relocated to avoid the impacts of Westernport Bay Region but transparency of Regional Council climate change, such as rising sea regulations and the use of decision making on issues that levels and erosion. technology have minimised the impact the community. Surveillance environmental impact. Integrated road and rail of communities has increased to infrastructure link the various parts Environmental bonds are enforced ensure compliance with regulatory of the Westernport Bay Region for all major infrastructure measures designed to meet the UN along corridors that include developments including port Sustainable Development Goals. provisions for bike paths, habitat expansion and airport development. As the region moved to new corridors, wildlife bridges/tunnels Environmental Protection Zones technologies for logistics, and utilities of water, sewerage and protect the natural environmental manufacturing, urban development electricity to minimise disruption assets of the Westernport Bay and waste management, the threat to the region’s rural and natural Region. of local extinctions of flora and landscapes. Environmentally significant land and fauna was acknowledged and New subdivisions have mandated marine areas have been protected community volunteers have worked multiple densities, low-cost housing, with better management and with the Biosphere Foundation to provision for open space, habitat strong regulations to minimise air, improve the environment; French retention/rehabilitation and water water and land pollution, ensuring Island BioArk is the shining example. sensitive and waste-sensitive design enhanced local amenity and The community works tirelessly features. Existing subdivisions are lifestyle. with the Westernport Regional retrofitted to mirror the objectives Protected wetlands and mangroves Council and volunteers to repair the of new subdivisions. have been allowed to adapt to environment, care for vulnerable Westernport Regional Broadband climate change and retreat, and people, and support sporting and is supplied to all domestic and most plant and animal species recreational activities. have survived, thanks to the wildlife commercial buildings to ensure a corridors and community-driven smart community is able to share habitat restoration projects. The its ideas, learn from the rest of the French Island BioArk now reflects Built infrastructure world and develop flexible work-life how the rest of the Westernport arrangements. Infrastructure is designed and Bay Region once looked and is a built to meet the needs of the Recreational infrastructure such biological time capsule in the heart community, industry and the as marinas and boat ramps of the catchment. environment, consistent with the are designed and located to The days of pollution and UN Sustainable Development minimise their site impact. Boating excessive waste are over, with Goals. It is based on the smart and infrastructure is only constructed innovative technological solutions, mandated use of technology that if its use does not undermine the strict regional regulations and encourages timely and sustainable natural values of Westernport Bay. a worldwide shift to emissions solutions for a growing and reduction. The Westernport Bay diversifying economy. Region is not as it used to be but its The focus of energy infrastructure is Natural Environment health is now improving towards a renewable energy. All domestic and sustainable future. The Westernport Regional Council commercial buildings are fitted with restricted the size and capacity of solar arrays that provide most of ships that can enter Westernport their energy needs. Wind and tidal Bay to minimise dredging and energy supplement this and feed its impacts. It also enforces strict into the national energy grid. vessel pollution controls including Integrated water, stormwater and a 100-kilometre offshore shipping sewerage infrastructure ensure pollution (e.g. ballast discharge) that water harvesting and recycling restriction zone for shipping to plants, and the desalination plant, protect the coast. supply the region’s water needs The expansion of Melbourne and (including third-pipe technology). the intensification of agriculture Regional infrastructure is located or have changed land use in the

25 CREATIVE GROWTH IN 2040 Carbon Farming Carbon Growth HorticultureIntensive DairyingIntensive Desalination Plant G CF IH ID DS Water Recycling Plant Water Hi-tech Industries Fishing Recreational Commercial, & Aquaculture Sailing Energy Wave Energy Tidal F S R T W HI

r CF e S

T Baw Baw Baw Baw Council Shire Lang Lang River R iver CF ip y n u B Bass River G South Gippsland Council Shire ID Blue-carbon Storage Turbines Wind Solar Farm WT I H WT S CS WT S WC IH CS • Pakenham S WC DS Bass Coast Coast Bass Shire G CS k ree CS ia C

in T Cardinia Cardinia Council Shire Card F S S WT CS French Island BioArk French F R Westernport Bay Westernport W Casey City Casey Council S S

• Cowes

g n t i

D F n i l

l a

i a R n

o n g • Hastings P • Dandenong WT • Dandenong Hub Container Phillip Island Caldermeade International Airport International Caldermeade Cowes to Point ferryCar Stony Port HI CF • Frankston I F P WT WC • Flinders W IH Port Phillip Bay S WC Mornington Peninsula Mornington Council Shire Remnant Vegetation Native & Reserves Forests Urban Dryland Grazing Horticulture Hospital and Medical Research Hub Hospital and Medical Research Crossing Wildlife

Figure 8: Creative Growth proposals H WC

26 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION Scenario 4: Lagom

Overview knowledge-based technologies Natural Environment • Refuse, reduce, reuse, recycle, • UN sustainable n 2015 the Victorian Government repurpose Iabandoned plans for the development goals expansion of the Port of Hastings on • Produce/process food following implemented with enhanced economic, social and environmental permaculture principles principles applying to RAMSAR grounds and proceeded to retrofit it • Increased public transport (land/ • No greenfield land for for a very different future. Adoption sea) development; urban consolidation of the UN Sustainable Development • Cooperative living initiatives and instead Goals inspired a review of every local food production • Existing market garden areas aspect of sustainable living in the • Supported/expanded local protected to provide local jobs Westernport Bay Region and this tourism, marine and coastal and high-value tradable food became the blueprint for the future. industries • Increased plantings and protection • Realised economic opportunities for indigenous flora and fauna Governance associated with climate change • Positive climate change response: mitigation and adaptation • Local governments • Ships use efficient fuels, sails and connected regionally Community renewable energy under a national government • Stable population • Social and political structures linked to carrying Built Infrastructure provide equal access to decision capacity making • Small-scale local • Wellness initiatives and self- villages: mixed building • Decision making via binding sufficiency plebiscites types, bike paths, car sharing • Good quality open-space facilities, • Light rail to/from Dandenong/ • Regional carrying capacity used to play spaces etc. develop environmental footprint Cowes • Free health care and national policy • Old infrastructure repurposed as superannuation scheme solar plants, universities, open • Free access to education space etc. Economy enhanced by final “transition year” • Hi-tech hospital ship visits of community learning and travel • Notion of work and • Renewables production/ wealth changed to one • Community leadership and distribution of contributing to community programs of skill sharing • World-leading and innovative Conventional Economic Development Policies (CEDs): National and Global

1. WesternFreePort 2. The Beacon CEDs in CED world SDGPs in CEP world

CEDs Locally SDGs Locally

4. Lagom 3. Creative Growth SDGs in SDG world CEDs in SDG world

Sustainable Development Goal Policies (SDGs): Figure 9: Lagom quadrant National and Global

27 LAGOM IN 2040

Governance Economy Built infrastructure Successive global financial crises, The change from an externally Coastal inundation mapping from significant extreme weather events focused economy to one with a early in the 21st century informed and Australia’s failure to meet its focus on regional wellbeing has the region’s response to climate 2020 emission target led to the brought with it many economic change induced sea level rise in this need for global cooperative action. opportunities. largely low-lying region. A one- kilometre buffer zone has been Australia’s response was to develop At a national level, an ethical review established around the coastline a locally decentralised governance was conducted along the entire where development cannot occur. structure connected at the global supply chain to determine what is level. Global public policy networks traded and to whom it is traded. Outmoded hard engineering link Australians with multiple This now informs the Westernport “solutions”, such as seawalls, have countries and stakeholders. Bay Region’s infrastructure proven ineffective and prohibitively requirements. costly to build and maintain. New values permeate Australia in 2040. Global solidarity and strong Hubs of technological innovation Inspired by early 21st-century connections between people cater for a growing business sector research, which estimated that are paramount, along with a eager to implement ideas for a US coastal wetlands provided commitment to sharing resources. cleaner, more equitable and less $23.2 billion per year in storm Ultimately, everyone is in it together. energy-intensive world. Small-scale protection services alone, factories, some located in previously the extensive rehabilitation Whereas for many years Australia abandoned facilities, support a of saltmarsh, mangroves and focused on its place in a global commitment to repair and reuse wetlands has provided effective market, it now has a regional and low-cost coastal protection perspective. The Westernport Bay items critical to living a good life without further draining natural against storm surge and sea-level Region’s governance structures resources. Refuse, reduce, reuse, rise. These natural areas now reflect this by prioritising trade and recycle and repurpose policies have provide economic, social and development within the region, encouraged the emergence of many environmental benefits to the sharing what is done well with other local tourism economy, for which new businesses. regions, and developing economic traditional protective works had specialties that fill niche gaps in the The notion of work and wealth has comprehensivley failed. production of food, technologies changed to be one of contributing While supporting local tourist and environmental services. to the community even when in activities, coastal zone infrastructure paid work. Good livings are made Changing the region’s future course is low impact: walking paths, from local tourism, marine and began in 2016 with the transition interpretive centres, viewing coastal industries and renewable to participatory democracy: more platforms etc. that can be easily energy production. citizens participating in decision removed or relocated. making provides them with much Food is produced following People live in small-scale local greater empowerment than the permaculture principles and is villages with mixed building types; ‘representative’ democracy that had traded regionally and nationally. bike paths and car sharing are the become so unrepresentative by The small and retrofitted Port of norm. Public transport on land 2015. Hastings is a hub of activity, with and sea has increased, driven by Regional governance has expanded food produce and other export renewable energy, and includes to encompass all members items being transported to other a dedicated light rail corridor to of the community, including coastal locations. Rather than a and from Dandenong and The women, Indigenous people and reliance on outmoded container Nobbies, and ferry services between the disabled. Decision making, vessels that require massive Hastings, French Island, Stony Point especially on contentious issues, landside crane and storage areas, and Cowes. small fuel-efficient vessels with on- is via plebiscites, binding on Outmoded infrastructure, such as government and underpinned by board cranes now load and unload cargo. the Blue Scope Steel plant, has been funding and community education. repurposed (or removed in some cases) and now used for additional energy production, university

28 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION campuses, market places, schools and travel. produce. Market gardens provide etc. local jobs and high-value tradable Egalitarianism has emerged as a food. Food production underpins Alternative energy production critical driver of future development. some regional, national and and distribution networks include The change from consumerism to international trade in high-value wind, tidal and solar-energy plants sustainability and egalitarianism has foods. to provide base-load power. brought many benefits. In particular, There are two solar plants, one on there is a zero-carbon future The science of climate change 3,000 hectares of land at Hastings with a cooperative, collaborative, was accepted and the region formerly earmarked for port innovative and resilient community. recommitted to investment in expansion. Collective goals and equity are more independent science. This positive important than personal wealth and response has realised economic A hi-tech hospital ship makes consumption. opportunities and environmental regular visits to the Port of Hastings benefits associated with climate to provide specialist services to the change initiatives that include wind, Westernport Bay Region. Natural Environment tide and solar energy. Ships are using clean and efficient fuels, sails The late 20th and early 21st century and renewable energy. Community trajectory of population growth, water use, forest degradation and Along with the rest of Australia, GDP growth was unsustainable. the Westernport Bay Region now The planet’s resources were being enjoys a stable population linked to depleted at a rate that threatened the environment’s carrying capacity. the survival of humans and many There are now good-quality open- other species. space facilities and play spaces, and wellness initiatives have been The UN Sustainable Development implemented and self-sufficiency is Goals have been implemented encouraged. with enhanced principles applying to RAMSAR, and the Westernport Access to universal and free health Biosphere program is now fully care has been preserved following realised. its near demise in the 2010s. Privately run retirement investment Living within an environmental schemes have been replaced by a footprint was made possible after national superannuation scheme a thorough analysis of the carrying operated by government as an capacity of the Westernport Bay extension of the former pension Region; education initiatives to scheme. stabilise the population are a key responsibility of government. Community leadership and skill- sharing programs are encouraged A stable population has made and use is made of cooperative it easy to ensure that urban living initiatives, self-sufficiency and consolidation is within existing innovation in business, community town boundaries and that no more and personal endeavours. greenfield sites are released for development. The community and Primary, secondary, tertiary and governing bodies have worked community education, and an hard to manage introduced pests, expanded TAFE sector, provide protect indigenous fauna, increase free access to all those formerly indigenous plantings and conserve excluded from pathways to water. economic and social success, and produce future community leaders. As in the early 21st century, the Free access to education at all levels Westernport Bay Region’s fertile is enhanced by a final “transition land still supports the production year” involving community learning of significant volumes of primary

29 LAGOM IN 2040

T C Baw Baw Baw Baw Council Shire S Lang Lang River R iver ip y n

u P B Permaculture Centre Permaculture Centre Innovation Community Energy Wave Turbines Wind Plant Photovoltaic Bass River P South Gippsland Council Shire S C P W WT P C • Pakenham C WT Bass Coast Coast Bass Shire

k ree inia C Cardinia Cardinia Council Shire Card French Island French P Westernport Bay Westernport • Marine & Coastal Centre Research Casey City Casey Council • Cowes • Resource • Resource Centre Recover S Phillip Island • Hastings W WT C W • Frankston P • Flinders C Port Phillip Bay WT Mornington Peninsula Mornington Council Shire Light RailLight Horticulture & Reserves Forests Urban Dryland Grazing Remnant Vegetation Native Figure 10: Lagom proposals. Figure

30 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION Comparative Summary of the Four Scenarios

Table 1 Attributes of the four scenarios

Features WesternFreePort The Beacon Creative Growth Lagom GOVERNANCE Structure Strong, small government Strong government at regional level Westernport Regional Council Regional governments connected focused on individual property collaborating on Special Economic (integrated and collaborative though national government rights and free market and Environment Bubble; new municipalities) with centralised regional institutions coordinate planning and compliance regime planning Democracy Limited regulations for industry Strong citizen participation; Managed market economy; Strong citizen participation; equal and commerce; everyone for consultation-based self-determina- statutory processes allow for access to community decision themselves; increased business tion at the regional level limited community engagement in making which, on contentious influence planning issues, is via plebiscites that are binding on government Policy Minimal policy; free market Strong regional policies to achieve Top-down regulatory control of in- Comprehensive global, national UN Sustainable Development Goals dustries and commerce to achieve and regional policies and to locally coordinate policies regional goals ECONOMY Economic growth Strong growth on average, but Stable or slow-growth economy Moderate economic growth based Stable, no-growth economy not for all - growing inequity with diversified activities on mandated technologies Key sectors Shipping, tourism, urban Ecotourism; horticulture; health; Renewable energy; waste manage- Health; education; energy; development education; best-practice agriculture ment; shipping; tourism; health; tourism communications; marine intensive agriculture; blue and and coastal industries; innovative green carbon farming knowledge-based technologies in small-scale intellectual enterprises; market gardens Agriculture Not mentioned Niche agricultural products Intensive horticulture; incentive Permaculture; cooperative living scheme to encourage carbon initiatives and production of local farming food COMMUNITY Identity National and individualistic Regional community National and regional community Global and regional community Equity and security Growing inequity; conflict over Equity and security, high levels of Equity secured by government Equity and security, high levels access to benefits of economic trust regulation of trust; people contribute to the growth community INDIVIDUAL WELLBEING Health and educa- Inequality in access to High priority, provided through Access to healthcare and education High priority, provided through tion privatised health and education public system; programs promote regulated by government; health public and free health and educa- health and wellbeing and use of and medical research focus tion system; hi-tech hospital ship; new recreational facilities; Marine wellness initiatives Research and Maritime Academy Urban density and High-density living with Multiple densities; affordable com- Multiple densities; sustainably Small scale local villages with design conventional urban design munity housing with 9-star rating designed subdivisions mixed building types; urban and geo-exchange infrastructure (econeighbourhoods) with water- consolidation not expansion; no sensitive design, wildlife corridors, greenfield land released for urban open space and third-pipe water expansion supply NATURAL ENVIRONMENT Environment Biodiversity and ecosystems Biodiversity and ecosystems Biodiversity and ecosystems Biodiversity and ecosystems decline; coastal erosion improve. Significant environmental decline and then stabilise; French improve; extensive rehabilitation repair; French island national park Island BioArk; habitat restoration; of foreshore habitats to protect extended to cover island; foreshore pollution and waste management coastline from erosion; low-impact buffer zone with habitat restora- controls coastal infrastructure tion to adapt coastline to climate change Greenhouse gas Strong emissions growth Initially increases and then declines Initially increases and then stablises Zero-carbon future emissions

31 Table 1 Attributes of the four scenarios

Features WesternFreePort The Beacon Creative Growth Lagom BUILT INFRASTRUCTURE Growth High Low-Medium Medium-High Low Car ferry Four-lane car tunnel between Small car ferry from Stony Point to Small car ferry from Stony Point No ferry Stony Point and Cowes Cowes to Cowes Port of Hastings Expanded to take 9 million Reconfigured for smaller domestic Reconfigured to enable small Reconfigured for smaller domestic containers by 2060 and international vessels with po- container ships and international vessels tential to upgrade for hi-tech uses Transport Heavy rail freight line into Integrated transport systems with Freight line to new container Land and sea public transport Melbourne CBD; rail link to coal upgraded road and rail transport hub at Dandenong for container expanded with renewable energy; mines; new airport linking new rail system on Phillip distribution on existing transport light rail Cowes to Dandenong; Island with Pakenham, Cranbourne networks; new airport inland new airport and Hastings; electrification of at Caldermeade; smart roads Stony Point to Frankston line; new infrastructure with wildlife tunnels/ airport bridges Energy Coal Renewables Renewables Renewables Tradeoffs Reduced constraints and large Environmental and social stability Controlled sustainable economic Collective goals and equity at the opportunities for individu- is more important than economic growth at the expense of commu- expense of personal wealth and als and corporations at the growth nity participation consumption expense of community and environmental quality

32 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION Westernport Bay Region Scenario-planning Survey

o build on the five-day Phillip planning, the region, each of the In terms of dissatisfaction, TIsland scenario planning four scenarios, the UN Sustainable 78.43% would be Dissatisfied or workshop’s discussion of alternative Development Goals and a list of Very Dissatisfied living under a futures for the Westernport Bay workshop participants. WesternFreePort scenario, 28% for Region, a public opinion survey was The Beacon, 19.64% for Creative Most of the 53 people who conducted, using Survey Monkey, Future and 11.76% for Lagom. completed the survey were from the during September and October Westernport Bay and Mornington 2014. Question 4: For the following Peninsula areas, there was an equal future statement – The Before the survey’s questions and gender balance, and the majority Westernport region should structure were finalised, a pilot were 55 years and older and from focus on a path of conventional version was sent to the 75 people scientific, education and training economic development, with who attended the workshop for backgrounds. little emphasis on sustainable their feedback, and that feedback What follows is a brief description development goals, do you: was used to amend the survey and analysis of the scenario- Strongly Agree; Agree; are before its public distribution planning survey results. Neutral; Disagree; Strongly through: Disagree? • Websites and social media Of the 53 people who answered platforms of the Victorian National Survey results this question, 11.32% Agreed or Parks Association, Preserve Strongly Agreed, while 83.02% Western Port Action Group, Question 1: I have read the Disagreed or Strongly Disagreed. the Shire of Bass Coast and interim report: the Westernport and Peninsula 65 (90.28%) of the 72 people who Question 5: For the following Protection Council logged into the survey said that future statement – The health of • Emails to alumni of the Crawford they had read the report. the environment and an equitable School of Public Policy at the society should be overarching Australian National University Question 2: Below is a list of guiding principles for future the four scenarios that were economic development decisions • Emails to all participants at developed during the workshop. in the Westernport region, do the workshop, who included Please rank them from most you: Strongly Agree; Agree; community, tourism, government preferred (1) through to your are Neutral; Disagree; Strongly and business interests, with least preferred (4) future scenario Disagree? encouragement of them to for 2040. distribute the link to the survey to For this question, 90.56% of their networks Of the 53 who answered this respondents Agreed or Strongly question, 54% ranked Lagom as Agreed with the statement, whereas • Blue Wedges and Peninsula their first preference, Creative Future 3.78% Disagreed or Strongly Speaks networks was the first preference for 20.75%, Disagreed. • Bass Coast Times and the WesternFreePort for 15.09% and Mornington Peninsula News The Beacon for 9.43%. However, The Question 6: Each of the scenarios Group newspapers Beacon was the second preference had a variety of economic for 60.38% of respondents. options. The options below are • The Coastcare newsletter, examples from each scenario. Coastline Question 3: If you imagine Please rank from your most In all, 72 people logged into the yourself living in each of these preferred (1) through to your survey, 65 of whom indicated futures, how satisfied would least preferred (5). that they had read the interim you be: Very Satisfied; Satisfied; Fifty-three people answered report and 53 of those choosing Neutral; Dissatisfied; Very this question and 69.81% to complete the survey. The 36- Dissatisfied? gave their first preference to page Scenario planning for the Of the 53 respondents, 82.35% ‘Diversified growth areas including Westernport Bay Region: Interim would be Satisfied or Very Satisfied ecotourism, agriculture, education report of the Phillip Island scenario- with Lagom, 42.3% with Creative and manufacturing’. Of the 53 planning workshop, which was Future, 42% with The Beacon and respondents, 18.87% gave their released in August 2014, contained 13.72% with WesternFreePort. first preference to ‘Development information about scenario

33 of co-operative living initiatives’, Question 8: Each of the scenarios of 54.72% of respondents, with 5.66% to Growth in environmentally had a variety of natural ‘Maintaining the footprint of sustainable housing subdivisions, environment options. The options the existing port but in the 3.77% to ‘Unlimited conventional below are examples from each longer term is converted for a economic development and scenario. Please rank from your sustainable development uses’ 1.89% to ‘Tourist entrance fees most preferred (1) through to was the most-preferred option of to cover major existing tourist your least preferred (5). 18.87%. ‘Smart roads that includes sites’. This order of preference is water sensitivity, wildlife passes ‘Restoration, rehabilitation and largely unchanged when second and land bridges’ was the most revegetation of the environment’ preferences are combined with preferred of 9.43% of respondents, was the most preferred option first preferences except for and ‘Upgraded communications by 39.62% of the 53 respondents ‘Unlimited conventional economic network throughout region to to this question. ‘Climate change promote smart businesses and development’ replacing ‘Tourist impacts are widespread and entrance fees’ as the lowest-ranked better life-work balance was the genuine attempts are made to preference. most-preferred option for 7.55% mitigate’ was the most-preferred of respondents. These options option of 30.19% of those who Question 7: Each of the scenarios also received strong support responded to this question. had a variety of community “French Island is recognised and as the second-most preferred options. The options below are options but were joined by ‘Public managed as a natural refuge’ was examples from each scenario. transport corridor for light rail to/ most preferred by 15.09%, ‘No Please rank from your most from Dandenong/Cowes’ (16.98%). more Greenfield land released preferred (1) through to your Those options that were the least for development with urban least preferred (5). consolidation within existing preferred by most respondents were ‘Expanding the Port of Hastings The option with the highest boundaries’ was preferred by into an international container percentage of respondents (32.08%) 13.21%, while ‘Ships using efficient port’ (62.326%) and ‘Casino on ranking it their most preferred fuels/sails/renewables was preferred Phillip Island’ (18.87%), with the option was ‘Stable population by 1.89%. No respondents cited latter give a score of 9 by 47.17%. linked to our carrying capacity’. ‘Reduced environmental stability’ The remaining options to be given The next highest percentage of as their most-preferred. Those consideration by the respondents respondents ranked ‘Equal access options given the highest support were ‘High-tech hospital ship to essential services, including as the second-most preferred making regular visits for specialist education and health’ as their most were ‘No more greenfield land’ services’, ‘New regional airport’ and preferred option. Third (18.87% of (30.19%), ‘Climate change’ (26.42%), ‘Car ferry between Stony Point and respondents) was ‘Maintenance ‘Restoration’ (24.53%), French Cowes’, all three trending towards and enhancement of public open Island’ (15.09%), ‘Ships’ (1.89%) and the least preferred side of the space’, followed by ‘Management ‘Reduced environmental stability’ ranking spectrum. of population growth to try and (1.89%). The options that were minimise its impact’ (11.32%) and least preferred were ‘Reduced Question 10: Please tick the box ‘User pays principle (9.43%). When environmental stability’ (62.26%) that represents your age. the second–most preferred options and ‘Ships’ (24.53%). are considered, ‘Equal access’ is Of the 52 respondents who preferred by 26.42%, ‘Management Question 9: Each of the scenarios answered this question, 73.08% of population growth’ by 24.53%, had a variety of built infrastructure were 55+ and 27.31% 25-44 years ‘Stable population’ by 22.64%, options. The options below are of age. ‘Maintenance and enhancement’ by examples from each scenario. 18.87% and ‘User pays’ by 7.55%. Please rank from your most Question 11: What is your preferred (1) through to your least gender? preferred (10). Of the 52 respondents, 25 were Survey respondents were given 10 Female and 27 Male. built infrastructure options. Question 12: What is your ‘Building alternative renewable postcode? energy production and distribution’ was the most-preferred option Fifty of the 52 respondents were

34 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION from Victoria, with the remaining question. Twelve commented could deliver to the economy, two from the ACT. Of the 50 specifically on the process, with according to one of the respondent, Victorians, 41 were from areas nine making positive comments and who also added that port expansion within the Westernport Bay Region, two of them recommending that would be devastating for the local including the Mornington Peninsula, the results be distributed widely, economy. For another, collaboration with the remainder from the while three considered the process between government, business Melbourne metropolitan area. flawed, the scenarios mutually and the community should be exclusive and the survey self-serving paramount and economic growth Question 13: Please tick the box and another was disappointed not the key driver of planning. that best represents the industry that stakeholders other than those Wave tank studies to analyse sector you are currently working opposed to the port did not involve the impacts of dredging were in or have been in the past. themselves in the workshop. One recommended by one respondent, respondent felt that the Lagom Of the 52 who completed this scenario was unachievable, while another believed that the impacts of question, 21.15% were or had another thought it was the best of recreational fishing on Westernport been involved in Education and the four scenarios. Bay should be investigated, Training, 23.08% in Professional, while making the public more Scientific and Technical Services, The remaining comments were appreciative of rural activities and 7.69% in Information Media and varied but generally expressed issues like drought was the topic of Telecommunications, 5.77% in a concern for the future of one entry. Health Care and Social Assistance, the Westernport Bay Region’s Two respondents commented 3.85% in Agriculture Forestry and environment and the need for on the importance of sustainable Fishing, and another 3.85% in sustainable development and good tourism in the region’s future. One Manufacturing. planning. For one, sustainable practices should be followed in all of these felt that creative tourism shoud be investigated, along with Question 14: For you personally, aspects of our lives so that the next other economic and environmental what is the most important factor generation does not have to repair initiatives, because industrial to consider for the future of the damage that we have caused. development could create a social the Westernport Bay region? 50 Several respondents expressed and environmental wasteland. The words or less. concerns about the expansion second believed that sustainable All 52 respondents made of the Port of Hastings, another ecotourism would support comments here. For 34 of the wanted green wedges protected, agriculture, and that education, respondents, factors associated while the impacts of overpopulation training and big-picture social with protecting and conserving was also mentioned. planning were very important. the environmental values of the One respondent reminisced on the Westernport Bay Region were of environmental planning tradition importance. Nine others made of the Hamer government and Analysis specific reference to the need for was disappointed that the current sustainable development, three development proposals were In the 52 who completed the raised employment and two were the converse of this. In another survey there was an even gender concerned about climate change, entry the work of ecologist balance, most were from the while individual mentions were Edward O Wilson was mentioned Westernport Bay and Mornington made of ensuring local marine to support concerns about port Peninsula areas, the majority were produce and food security, the need expansion. Long-term planning aged 55 years and above and for legislation to balance industry and decentralisation with a focus their employment backgrounds and environment, and a lack of on the Port of Portland was an were largely from the professional, desire for an expanded port. approach raised, while development scientific and technical, and and expansion at the expense of education and training sectors. Question 15: Please share any the environment was the wrong The three scenarios that had additional comments you may approach for another because various elements of ecologically have about the process, the mistakes were hard to undo. sustainable development were most scenarios, or your preferred All governments had their heads favoured by survey respondents, future for the area. buried in the sand with regards along with the principles of Thirty people responded to this to what the environmental sector environmental health and an equal

35 society. This was also the case with the options for environmental, economic, community and built infrastructure, and the comments made in the survey’s two open- ended questions. Climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives, the establishment of a renewable energy sector, diversified growth in ecotourism, agriculture, education and manufacturing, environmental restoration and protection projects and the linking of population to the region’s carrying capacity all received strong support. The expansion of the Port of Hastings, the introduction of a car ferry, the establishment of a casino on Phillip Island and the pursuit of conventional economic development policies received limited support. For most respondents, protecting and conserving the environmental values of the Westernport Bay Region was central to its future.

36 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION Conclusions

fter a five-day workshop and governments could investigate Athe conduct of a public opinion as part of their planning for the survey, what can be said of the Westernport Bay Region. scenario planning exercise for the Westernport Bay Region and 6. Alternative strategies raised the views of its participants and during the workshop and observers? supported by the survey 1. The Westernport Bay region is included ecologically sustainable a large and diverse one with development, climate change significant environmental values, mitigation and adaptation a growing population and varied initiatives, establishment of a land use. renewable energy sector and 2. As population growth continues smart industries, a diversification in the region, there are increasing of the economy, reconfiguration pressures on its social, economic not closure of the existing port, and environmental fabrics. green jobs, environmental 3. Protecting the health of restoration and protection Westernport Bay was of critical projects, improved and expanded importance for workshop public transport, community participants and survey engagement, collaborative respondents. planning and the linking of 4. Although the planning exercise population to the region’s began with a focus on the carrying capacity. expansion of the Port of Hastings, the interests of the participants moved the analysis to a much broader review of Recommendation alternative futures for the entire Use the final report of the scenario Westernport Bay Region. This planning process to form the broader view was also reflected in the comments made by survey basis for a broader investigation respondents. of sustainable futures for the Westernport Bay Region. 5. Port expansion is only one of many alternative strategies that

37 APPENDIX 1: PROPOSED UN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

hese goals are to be considered expressing it, but the essence is and among nations, and that it is Tfor adoption by the UN General “a prosperous, high quality of interdependent with the wellbeing Assembly this year. life that is equitably shared and of the rest of nature. sustainable” (1). Another way of describing the There are three elements to this three elements of SWB (3-5) is as An Overarching goal that cover the usual three the integrated provision of: components of sustainable Goal for the 1. Efficient Allocation: Building A development – the economy (a Living Economy UN Sustainable high quality of life or wellbeing), Development Goals society (equitably shared), and the 2. Fair Distribution: Protecting environment (sustainable – staying Capabilities for Flourishing By Robert Costanza, Jacquiline within planetary boundaries). There 3. Sustainable Scale: Staying McGlade, Hunter Lovins, and Ida is also the understanding that all Within Planetary Boundaries Kubiszewski three of these elements are highly complex and interdependent It is clear that communities, A major challenge in achieving countries, and the planet as a and must be satisfied jointly. It is true sustainable development is no good to have a high quality whole need to articulate shared improved understanding of SWB, of life for an elite few that is not goals and ways to track progress of how the intermediate and equitably shared or sustainable, or toward meeting them. This is ultimate means listed in the SDGs a sustainable but low quality of life the essence of the Sustainable contribute to SWB, and of how to where everyone suffers equitably, Development Goals (SDG) process measure progress toward SWB. or a high quality of life for currently underway at the UN. The There are several alternative everyone that will collapse in the SDGs are the follow-up to the UN’s future. We want all three together measures of progress toward Millennium Development Goals in an integrated and balanced way SWB currently being developed (MDGs) that are due to expire in and any one or two without the and tested (1) (also see www. 2015. They represent a substantial others is not sufficient. wikiprogress.org). They can be commitment on the part of UN divided into three broad groups: member states to carry out the It is also important to recognize (1) those that adjust economic shared goals that represent truly that the economy is embedded in measures to reflect social and sustainable development over the society, which is embedded in the environmental factors; (2) those next 15 years. rest of nature (2,3). These three that depend on subjective elements are nested in a way that The SDG process is building measures of wellbeing drawn from means that they are extremely consensus on what these shared surveys; and (3) those that use interdependent. We can no longer goals are and how to measure weighted composite indicators treat the economy separately, progress toward meeting them. of wellbeing including things like without considering its strong While discussion continues on a housing, life expectancy, leisure dependence on society and the list of SDGs (currently 17) due to time and democratic engagement rest of nature. be announced in 2015, there is (1). a critical missing element in the The SDGs are “intermediate means” None of these measures are process. That missing element is or “ultimate means” that contribute perfect, but collectively they the articulation and measurement to achieving the ultimate end or offer the building blocks for of the overarching goal or overarching goal. The SDGs can the integrated measures of “ultimate end” of the SDGs and therefore best be considered SWB we sorely need. Creating how the list of sub-goals and as “sub-goals” contributing in a viable and broadly accepted targets contribute to achieving that different ways in different times measure of SWB will require a larger goal. The goals are being and places to the overarching goal sustained, transdisciplinary effort discussed as separate elements, or ultimate end. to integrate metrics and build a in isolation from each other and For simplicity in what follows, broad consensus. This process is from the overarching goal that they we will refer to this overarching underway, but can be accelerated contribute to. goal as “sustainable wellbeing” by connecting it with the ongoing There is broad emerging or SWB, recognizing that this SDG process, either as an integral agreement about this overarching wellbeing or quality of life must part of the process or as a follow goal. There are many ways of be equitably shared, both within on.

38 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION The SDG process represents 5. Costanza R., Cumberland J., and equitable quality education a huge global opportunity to Daly H., Goodland R., Norgaard and promote life-long learning recalibrate our shared goals and R. (1997), An Introduction to opportunities for all Ecological Economics, Boca set society firmly on the path to a Proposed goal 5: Achieve gender Raton, Florida, St. Lucie Press sustainable and desirable future. equality and empower all women Some will argue that building this 6. Daly H. and Farley J. (2004), and girls kind of consensus is unnecessary Ecological economics: Principles Proposed goal 10: Reduce or impossible. But the history and applications, Island Press of the MDGs shows that broad inequality within and among consensus around shared goals is countries possible and it can drive significant Proposed goal 16: Promote positive change. This needs to be Efficient Allocation: peaceful and inclusive societies for accelerated and integrated in the Building A Living sustainable development, provide SDG process and the overarching access to justice for all and build goal of SWB needs to be clearly Economy effective, accountable and inclusive articulated as the integrating Proposed goal 7: Ensure access to institutions at all levels element. Time is clearly running affordable, reliable, sustainable, Proposed goal 17: Strengthen the out and missing this opportunity and modern energy for all means of implementation and would be a global disaster. Proposed goal 8: Promote revitalize the global partnership for It is often said that you get what sustained, inclusive and sustainable sustainable development you measure. To build a sustainable economic growth, full and and desirable future we need productive employment and to measure what we want, SWB, decent work for all Sustainable Scale: remembering that it is better to be Proposed goal 9: Build resilient Staying Within approximately right than precisely infrastructure, promote inclusive wrong. and sustainable industrialization Planetary Boundaries and foster innovation Proposed goal 6: Ensure availability Proposed goal 11: Make cities and and sustainable management of References human settlements inclusive, safe, water and sanitation for all resilient and sustainable 1. Costanza R., Kubiszewski I., Proposed goal 13: Take urgent Giovannini E., Lovins H., McGlade Proposed goal 12: Ensure action to combat climate change J., et al (2014), ‘Time to leave sustainable consumption and and its impacts GDP behind’, Nature 505: 283- production patterns Proposed goal 14: Conserve 285 and sustainably use the oceans, 2. Griggs D., Stafford-Smith M., seas and marine resources for Gaffney O., Rockström J., Öhman Fair Distribution: sustainable development M., et al (2013), ‘Sustainable Protecting Proposed goal 15: Protect, restore developent goals for people and and promote sustainable use of planet’, Nature 495: 305-307 Capabilities for terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably 3. Costanza R., Alperovitz G., Daly, Flourishing manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and H., Farley J., Franco C., et al Proposed goal 1: End poverty in all reverse land degradation and halt (2012), Building a Sustainable its forms everywhere and Desirable Economy-in- biodiversity loss Society-in-Nature, New York: Proposed goal 2: End hunger, United Nations Division for achieve food security and improved Sustainable Development nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture 4. Daly, H. (1992), ‘Allocation, distribution, and scale: towards Proposed goal 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all an economics that is efficient, at all ages just, and sustainable’, Ecological Economics 6: 185-193 Proposed goal 4: Ensure inclusive

39 APPENDIX 2: WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS

he people listed below attended * Doris Graham, Victorian Wader Community Association Tat least one day of the five-day Study Group Cr Andrew Phillips, Bass Coast Shire workshop. Those marked with an Deirdre Griepsma, Bass Coast Shire Council asterisk (*) were members of one of Council the four scenario-planning groups. * Leigh Phillips, Preserve Western Prue Griffiths, Westernport and Port Action Group David Arnold, Cowes Yacht Club Peninsula Protection Council * Alison Pitt, French Island Port * Neil Beddoe Chris Gurney, Somers Yacht Club Stoppers * Stefan Borzecki, Yaringa Boat * Graeme Hanigan, Mornington Cr Neil Rankine, Bass Coast Shire Harbour Peninsula Citizens for Science Council * Linda Bowden, French Island * Sean Hart, Australian National Doug Robinson, Trust For Nature Community Association University Mark Rodrigue, Parks Victoria * Simon Branigan, Victorian Rosalind Jessop, Phillip Island Matt Ruchel, Victorian National National Parks Association Nature Park Parks Association Walter Broussard, Preserve Western Joanna Johnson, Preserve Western * Jeremy Russell-Smith, Bushfires & Port Action Group Port Action Group Natural Hazards CRC Carmen Bush, Preserve Western Sam Johnston, United Nations Sue Saliba, Phillip Island Port Action Group University Conservation Society Kevin Chambers, Preserve Western * Rosie Ker, Westernport and Kay Setches, Phillip Island Port Action Group Peninsula Protection Council Conservation Society Bruno Cheme, Phillip Island Sheila Ker, Westernport and Haans Siver, Sea Shepherd Conservation Society Peninsula Protection Council * Chris Smyth, Independent Jean Coffey, Tenby Point Residents Anna Kilborn, Regional Environmental Consultant Association Development Gippsland Kim Storey, Destination Phillip Island * Gillian Collins, Phillip Island * Hugh Kirkman, Independent Conservation Society Environmental Consultant Ruchira Talukdar, Australian Conservation Foundation Steve Cork, Australian National Rebecca Koss, Deakin University University * Craig Thomson, Mornington * Ida Kubiszewski, Australian Peninsula Shire Rosebud * Robert Costanza, Australian National University Foreshore Advisory Group National University * Cr Clare Le Serve, Bass Coast Shire Julie Trezise, French Island Landcare Scott Coutts, Parks Victoria Council Group Ben Cullen, Trust For Nature Penny Manning, Bird Life Bass Coast Peter van Duyn, Victoria University Helen Dafner, Cliff Top Boutique Kelly Miller, Deakin University * Dian Vasquez, Australian National Accommodation David Minton, Westernport and University Natalie Davey, Saltwater Projects Peninsula Protection Council Jillian Erhardt Anne Davie, Preserve Western Port Linda Moon, Deakin University Nicola Waldron, Victorian Coastal Action Group Ian Morgans, Port Phillip Council Cr Bradley Drew, Bass Coast Shire and Westernport Catchment * Jenny Warfe, Blue Wedges Council Management Authority Coalition James Fitzsimons, The Nature * Barbara Norman, Australian Jarvis Weston, Phillip Island Nature Conservancy National University Park Roz Franklin, Mornington Peninsula * Jeff Nottle, Preserve Western Port Ariane Wilkinson, Environmental Shire Action Group Justice Australia Cr David Garnock, Mornington * Keith Old, Riskwide Consulting Cecelia Witton, Western Port Peninsula Shire Louise Page, French Island Port Biosphere Caroline Giles, Westernport and Stoppers Cr Phil Wright, Bass Coast Shire Peninsula Protection Council David Paonetti, French Island Council

40 SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE WESTERNPORT BAY REGION Address: Level 3, 60 Leicester Street, Carlton, Victoria 3053. Phone: 03 9347 5188 | Email: [email protected] | Website: www.vnpa.org.au 41