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Strategic Panorama 2014 Strategic Panorama Spanish Institute of 2014 Strategic Studies MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA Strategic Panorama Spanish Institute of 2014 Strategic Studies February 2014 MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA GENERAL CATALOGUE OF OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS http://www.publicacionesoficiales.boe.es/ Edita: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA www.bibliotecavirtualdefensa.es © Autor y editor, 2014 NIPO: 083-14-130-4 (impresión bajo demanda) NIPO: 083-14-129-1(e-book edition) Legal deposit: M-2156-2014 ISBN: 978-84-9781-960-2 (e-book edition) Printed by: Spanish Ministry of Defence Relase date: august 2013 The authors are solely responsible for the opinions expresed in the articles in this publication. The exploitation righits of this work are protected by the Spanish Intellectual Property Act. No parts of this publication may be produced, stored or transmitted in any way nor by any means, electronic, mechanical or print, including photocopies or any other means without prior, express, written con- sent of the © copyright holders. This publication is printed on chlorine-free obtained from certified sustainable forestry. INDEX Introduction ............................................................................................................. 9 Other lessons of the Great War ....................................................................... 13 A century on ........................................................................................................ 15 Strategic Panorama 2014 ................................................................................. 22 Threats and risks ............................................................................................... 29 Chapter one Strategic outlook for today’s world: internal dynamics, external dynamics . 37 Introduction................................................................................................................. 39 The predominance of domestic policy ........................................................... 39 The return of diplomacy ................................................................................... 42 Slowing down of the Great Convergence ....................................................... 45 The return of Russia .......................................................................................... 47 China’s domestic overhaul .............................................................................. 49 The United States, a reluctant leader at the global centre ....................... 52 Europe, stable but fragmented ....................................................................... 54 The triad and global management ................................................................ 57 Europe–US: reinventing the Atlantic ............................................................. 58 Europe-China ...................................................................................................... 61 China–US ............................................................................................................. 63 Plurilateralism .................................................................................................... 64 Chapter two Towards a new order in the middle east .................................................... 67 Introduction................................................................................................................. 69 Trends towards regional changes .......................................................................... 70 Force of public opinion ...................................................................................... 70 Weakening of state institutions ....................................................................... 72 Regional dynamics .................................................................................................... 73 Religion and state model .................................................................................. 74 Rise of the Persian Gulf monarchies ..................................................................... 91 Changes in the power balance and in global geopolitics ........................... 96 Conclusions and final thoughts............................................................................... 103 5 Página Chapter three Africa. Lights and shadows of an emerging continent .......................... 105 Introduction................................................................................................................. 107 The lights... .......................................................................................................... 107 …and the shadows ............................................................................................. 109 Africa on the international stage ................................................................... 111 The gleaming Asian model... ............................................................................ 112 …vis-à-vis a European model that is losing its lustre ................................. 113 Spain and Africa ................................................................................................. 115 The beginning of African solutions to African problems and their limi- tations: the return of the French gendarme … ...................................... 116 …, while Africa continues to expect more from Obama .............................. 118 Upturn in tensions and disputes, main hotspots ................................................. 119 The Sahel ............................................................................................................. 120 North of Nigeria and Cameroon ...................................................................... 123 Gulf of Guinea ..................................................................................................... 123 Great Lakes ......................................................................................................... 125 Central African Republic ................................................................................... 126 The Sudans .......................................................................................................... 127 Somalia ................................................................................................................ 129 Conclusion. Two contrasting versions of Africa are struggling to prevail ...... 129 Chapter four Latin America 2013. Looking leftwards and to the Pacific.................. 133 Slowdown. More demands, fewer resources ....................................................... 135 The global landscape ....................................................................................... 135 The impact in Latin America and the Caribbean .......................................... 136 Looking leftwards ...................................................................................................... 138 The health of Democracy .................................................................................. 138 Protests ‘of democracy and growth’............................................................... 139 Elections .............................................................................................................. 141 Peace in Colombia .............................................................................................. 149 Ever Cuba ............................................................................................................. 151 Integration or consensus? ....................................................................................... 152 MERCOSUR .......................................................................................................... 153 ALBA ..................................................................................................................... 154 The Pacific Alliance (AdP) ................................................................................. 155 UNASUR ............................................................................................................... 156 CELAC ................................................................................................................... 156 SICA ...................................................................................................................... 157 Latin america on the world stage........................................................................... 158 Relations with the United States ..................................................................... 158 From EU-LAC to CELAC-EU .............................................................................. 160 The Ibero-American Community ..................................................................... 163 China and the Pacific ........................................................................................ 166 Conclusions................................................................................................................. 167 And Spain .................................................................................................................... 169 Chapter five Economic environment and risks associated with fiscal globalisa- tion ....................................................................................................................... 171 Financial-fiscal environment .................................................................................. 173 A few thoughts on the international financial context ...............................
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