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NCGT Journal V. 3, N. 4 - An international journal for New Concepts in Global Tectonics - NCGT JOURNAL Volume 3, Number 4, December 2015. ISSN 2202-0039. Editor: Dong R. CHOI ([email protected]). www.ncgt.org Editorial board Ismail BHAT, India ([email protected]); Giovanni P. GREGORI, Italy ([email protected]); Louis HISSINK, Australia ([email protected]); Leo MASLOV, USA ([email protected]); Per MICHAELSEN, Mongolia ([email protected]); Nina PAVLENKOVA, Russia ([email protected]); David PRATT, Netherlands ([email protected]); Karsten STORETVEDT, Norway ([email protected]); Takao YANO, Japan ([email protected]) CONTENTS From the Editor Earthquake code cracked: Catastrophic earthquakes are predictable………………..……………….….414 Letters to the Editor…………………………………………………………………………………………....…..…415 Articles Orientation of ancient cultic objects and polar drift, Stanislav A. GRIGORIEV…………………………..…..….416 Platforms: Thermal and geological history, Vadim GORDIENKO…………………………………………..…….432 “Ice” (Pluto and “Flame” (Sun): tectonic similarities of drastically different cosmic globes, Gennady G. KOCHEMASOV…………………………………………………………………………………..……459 North Tuscany (Italy): A potential relationship between seismic swarms and violent rainstorms, Valentino STRASER……………………………………………………………………………………………..…...467 Seismogeodynamics of the Hazara-Kashmir Transverse Trough, Pakistan, Haleem Zaman MAGSI……….…..476 Degassing and expanding Earth model of global tectonics, Nina I. PAVLENKOVA……………………………...489 Discussion Geoscientific urban legends, Karsten M. STORETVEDT…………………………..…………………….…….……516 Science, Colin LAING…………………………………………………………………………….…………………...529 Ocean floor fabric assists in tectonic interpretations, N. Christian SMOOT………………………………….…...537 Global Climate Corner Anthropic global warming, Giovanni P. GREGORI…………………….…….……………………………….……544 Publications The approaching new grand solar minimum and little ice age climate conditions, Nils-Axel MÖRNER…..…….561 Earth as a stellar transformer – climate change revealed: EU 2015, Bruce A. LEYBOURNE………………..….563 Multi-parametric analysis of earthquake precursors, Hong-Chun WU, Ivan N. TIKHOMOV and Ariel R. CÉSPED………………………………………………………………………………………………….….565 The synergy of earthquake precursors, Sergey PULINETS……………….………………………………..….…...565 NCGT conference proposals/suggestions invited……..…………...………….………………………….565 Financial support and About the NCGT Journal…………………………………………….………………..566 For contact, correspondence, or inclusion of material in the NCGT Journal please use the following methods: NEW CONCEPTS IN GLOBAL TECTONICS. 1. E-mail: [email protected]; 2. Mail, air express, etc., 6 Mann Place, Higgins, ACT 2615, Australia (files in MS Word format, and figures in jpg, bmp or tif format); 3. Telephone, +61-2- 6254 4409. DISCLAIMER: The opinions, observations and ideas published in this journal are the responsibility of the contributors and do not necessary reflect those of the Editor and the Editorial Board. NCGT Journal is an open, refereed quarterly international online journal and appears in March, June, September and December. For Mac computer users, this journal in pdf format must be opened with Acrobat or Acrobat Reader. ISSN numbers; electronic copy –ISSN 2202- 0039, print copy - ISSN 2202-5685. 414 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, V. 3, No. 4, December 2015. www.ncgt.org FROM THE EDITOR Earthquake code cracked: Catastrophic earthquakes are predictable n the last few years, earthquake prediction study has made remarkable progress. A global team of earthquake Iresearchers who are engaged in forecasting was spontaneously formed while exchanging information prior to the devastating Chilean earthquake in September this year – the M8.3 Coquimbo Earthquake. As explained in the previous NCGT issue (v. 3, no. 3, p. 383-408, 2015), a synergetic, multi-parameter approach resulted in one of the most successful predictions. Two short-term precursors played a crucial role in these efforts: 1) a jet stream anomaly detected by Taiwanese seismologist Hong-Chun Wu 96 days in advance; and 2) a psychrometric anomaly detected by local seismologists, represented by Ariel Césped of Chilisismos, who issued an official warning 21 days prior to the mainshock. Another warning was issued by Venkatanathan, who detected an outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomaly 16 days prior to the mainshock. These forecasts were supported by a long- to medium-term forecast issued by the International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC) based on Blot’s energy transmigration concept more than one year prior to the event. The same team’s successful predictions have continued: two more major shocks in central and northern Chile; the M6.9 quake on 11 November 2015 off Coquimbo township, and the M6.2 quake on 27 November 2015 about 100 km south of Antofagasta, both with almost pinpoint accuracy. These successes have demonstrated the veracity of their approach in forecasting major earthquakes, and most importantly, it has proved that catastrophic earthquakes are predictable despite persistent claims to the contrary by seismological authorities. During the forecasting efforts for the Chilean quakes, a new reliable precursory signal emerged: a jet stream velocity anomaly (Wu and Tikhonov, 2014). An objective evaluation by the present Editor shows that in the case of strong quakes with magnitude 6.0 or greater (and even many moderate ones, M4.5+) it appears almost without fail a few days to 100 days prior to the mainshock within 100 km of the epicenter. Although further improvement is necessary in magnitude determination, it is undoubtedly the most trustworthy short-term signal. In addition, we have many other proven precursory signals. They include: 1) VLF electromagnetic wave propagation established by Hayakawa (2012), which was commercially adopted several years ago in Japan; and 2) a unique method developed by Shanmugan of India using the variation in sunlight angle (http://earthquake.itgo.com/). A fundamental factor that underlies the above success stories is an improved understanding of the earthquake generation mechanism, which is radically different from the conventional plate-tectonic model. It has become clear that the original, powerful thermal electromagnetic energy is sourced from the deep Earth – i.e. the outer core. The deep-to-shallow transmigration of the energy is controlled by fractures in the upper mantle, and the energy is trapped in the structural highs in the upper mantle and the crust – understanding the deep geological structure is therefore essential. The energy discharge from the traps is influenced by solar, lunar and other planetary forces (tide, interplanetary magnetic field, solar polar magnetic field, space weather, etc.). An earthquake is a thermal electromagnetic phenomenon. The theoretical background for the final energy release has been provided by the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere (LAIM) system theory established by Pulinets et al. (2015). Arun Bapat (2007) studied anomalous animal behavior and disturbances in electromagnetic communications before an earthquake hits. We now know what precursory signals are expected to appear at different stages in the run-up to major earthquakes. Today we have accumulated enough documentation to declare that catastrophic earthquakes are predictable. The time has arrived to formulate an international program to systematically analyze global precursory signals and coordinate scattered researches and information, in order to save numerous human lives and mitigate disasters. References Bapat, A., 2007. Seismo-electro-magnetic and other precursory observations from recent earthquakes. NCGT Newsletter, no. 43, p. 34-38. Hayakawa, M., 2012. Short-term earthquake prediction with electromagnetic effects: present situation. NCGT Newsletter, no. 63, p. 9-14. Pulinets, S.E., Ouzounov, D., Arelin, A.K. and Davidenko, D., 2015. Physical bases of the generation of short-term earthquake precursors: A complex model of ionization-induced geophysical processes in the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere- magnetosphere system. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, v. 55, no. 4, p. 540-558. Wu, H.-C. and Tikhonov, I.N., 2014. Jet stream anomalies as possible short-term precursors of earthquakes with M>6.0. Research in Geophysics, Special issue on earthquake precursors, v. 4, no. 1, p. 12-18. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, V. 3, No. 4, December 2015. www.ncgt.org 415 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Dear Editor, I too, congratulate you on progress with NCGT. The link below will take you to a (large) PowerPoint presentation I have made on Caribbean and wider geology. It includes many data from recent years, such as ancient zircons in "intra-oceanic" arcs and their implications for Caribbean and other arcs. It addresses the (non-existent) "Andesite problem" and "Subduction factories". I am sending you the link for your personal interest, but if you would like to share it with your NCGT colleagues in some way, that would be great: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/53508877/Carib%20overview%20web%20page.pptx Keith James [email protected] Geology Without Limits Lead Scientist, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Wales, United Kingdom ******************* Dear Editor have recently joined Mongolian University of Science and Technology (MUST) as Senior Research Fellow. I I have a new office at the Geoscience Center, and my current work is focusing on the Permian system (including the P-T boundary) in Mongolia, During the last 10 years I have collected a lot of data
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