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Britain's Shuttle Spaceflight A British Interplanetary Society Publication Britain’s Shuttle Spaceplanes for science Habitats for Orion Skylark remembered Vol 58 No 11 November 2016 £4.50 www.bis-space.com CONTENTS Editor: Published by the British Interplanetary Society David Baker, PhD, BSc, FBIS, FRHS Sub-editor: Volume 58 No. 11 November 2016 Ann Page Production Assistant: Ben Jones 412-415 Give me SPACE! Spaceflight Promotion: Gerard van de Haar reviews the candidate concepts for NASA’s Gillian Norman NextStep-2 technology competition embracing potential habitation Spaceflight modules for supporting deep-space exploration. He also explains how Arthur C. Clarke House, NASA is already conducting tests with simulated isolation experiments 27/29 South Lambeth Road, London, SW8 1SZ, England. using volunteers. Tel: +44 (0)20 7735 3160 416-417 Skylark at Heritage Museum Fax: +44 (0)20 7582 7167 Email: [email protected] Robin Brand describes a visit to the new museum heralding the www.bis-space.com aerospace achievements of Bristol’s associated industry and explains how the Skylark rocket will be a prominent feature of the displays. ADVERTISING Tel: +44 (0)1424 883401 Email: [email protected] 418-423 Britain’s Space Shuttle DISTRIBUTION Dan Sharp previews publication of his book on British attempts to Spaceflight may be received worldwide by build a reusable shuttlecraft with an overview of an impressive and mail through membership of the British little-known project which failed on the altar of political indecision and Interplanetary Society. Details including Library vacillation, leaving the Americans, impressed with the British work, to subscriptions are available from the above address. pick up the challenge. * * * 424-428 Science by spaceplane Spaceflight is obtainable from UK newsagents Vladmir Pletser of the Suborbital Research Association is pushing hard and other retail outlets in many countries. to get space tourism married to real scientific research and to guide the In the event of difficulty contact: Warners Group Distribution, The Maltings, Manor Lane, use of suborbital flying machines into the hands of investigators and Bourne, Lincolnshire PE10 9PH, England. experimenters seeking a middle road between sounding rockets and Tel: +44 (0)1778 391 000 satellites. Fax: +44 (0)1778 393 668 * * * Spaceflight is a publication which promotes the mission of The British Interplanetary Society. Opinions in signed articles are those of the Regular Features contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editor or the Council of the British 404-407 News Analysis – Failure or flaw? – New Glenn from Blue Origin Interplanetary Society. * * * 408 Briefing notes – news shorts from around the world Back issues of Spaceflight are available from the Society. For details of issues and prices go to www.bis-space.com or send an sae to the 409-411 ISS Report – 16 August-15 September 2016 address at top. * * * 430-431 Satellite Digest – 526 August 2016 Published monthly by the British Interplanetary Society. Registered Company No: 402498. 432-434 Flashback – A regular feature looking back 50 years ago this month Registered Charity No: 250556. Printed in the UK by Latimer Trend & Company Ltd. 436-437 Society News – BIS-Italia at star party * * * Copyright © British Interplanetary Society 2016 ISSN 0038-6340. All rights reserved. 398 What’s On No part of this magazine may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photo- copying or recording by any information storage or retrieval system without written permission NOTICE TO JBIS READERS from the Publishers. Photocopying permitted by license only. A small number of copies of the previous issue of the Journal of the British Interplanetary * * * Society (JBIS) (February/March 2016) were misprinted and mailed to members. If your The British Interplanetary Society is a company limited by guarantee. copy of JBIS was incomplete, or incorrectly paginated, please email the Editor - jbis@ bis-space.com and the BIS will post a new copy to you. Mission The British Interplanetary Society promotes the exploration and use of space for the benefit of humanity, by connecting people to create, educate and inspire, and advance knowledge in Cover image: A dramatic interpretation of NASA’s OSIRIS-Rex spacecraft arriving at Bennu in August all aspects of astronautics. 2018 where it will remain for two years seven months before returning to Earth in 2023. NASA Spaceflight Vol 58 November 2016 403 NEWS ANALYSIS Failure or flaw? SpaceX plans to fly its Falcon Heavy before the end of this year but it must sort out its liabilities for pad damage first, caused by the loss of a Falcon 9 on 1 September. SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket being prepared and the Federal Aviation Administration’s and grow. The US Department of Defense, for the launch of Amos-6, a 5.3 accident branch in helping with that activity. He which buys launches on Delta and Atlas tonne communication satellite, was got that. He has also appealed to the general rockets for military payloads, asserts that while Adestroyed along with its payload during the public for any photographs which could add their provider, United Launch Alliance, does morning of 1 September shortly before a clarity to the confusion as to the source – or nothing wrong, illegal or evasive, the price for scheduled hot fire test of the first stage. What cause – of the destructive fast burn which heavy-lift these days is astronomical to where are we to make of this? consumed the rocket and its payload. it should be in a commercial world filled with Quite a lot, some of which lays serious But that’s the rub; the payload should not competitors. questions at the door of SpaceX and its have been on the rocket for its engine test. And That competition itself is vital for a healthy management philosophy. Most of those the reason why it was attached is also linked to industry is acknowledged by traditional questions appear not to have been addressed the SpaceX philosophy of continuous iteration, mainstream players, a philosophy supported by pundits and analysts, who to date have in the design modifications and “improvements” by the customer wherever possible. Which concentrated solely on the impact this will have made in every evolutionary step of the is why the promise of SpaceX and others in on the company’s ambitious launch schedule. programme. Musk is keen to emphasise his the commercial launcher market is crucial to And on its determination to fly as frequently as approach through a set of rolling changes in realising the possibility, lauded for several possible driven by commercial considerations, both technology and test and flight preparation. decades, that truly global space development while ignoring the consequences of risk. This philosophy runs counter to the rocket requires very low cost rockets which are safe After several weeks analysing the accident engineers’ mantra for test, re-test and test and reliable. a forensic examination of the physical, visual again before flight and then consistency in This is the third failure of a Falcon 9 in 29 and telemetered data is making only slow hardware design, manufacture, checkout events. Not bad for a start-up, now showing progress toward determining the cause and and flight, building an actuarial spread which a 90% success rate which is commendable finding a solution. Telemetered data amounts assembles a log of reliability and predictability. for a new launch vehicle of radical design. It to some 3,000 channels with specific attention No changes except to improve reliability. usually takes 30 or 50 flights to bed down a going to a critical band of 35-55 milliseconds But how does that fit with the New Space new system, one which relies on consistency when the train of events began. philosophy of confident entrepreneurs risking in design and engineering for its success, not The event itself was preceded by a dull all? Probably to the unsavoury conclusion that one in which small, if subtle, changes are being “crump” sound followed three seconds later by failed risks are now being paid for through the made to the technology on a consistent basis, a major fast-burn prior to a series of explosions chequebooks of customers and users, returning flight by flight. and the collapse of the two stages. The payload to compromise the bold pioneering efforts of Traditionally, consistency in rocket and shroud and contents remained attached to individual operators. Yet entrepreneurs such launcher design is needed in the repeated the service mast for about 10 seconds before as Elon Musk are important for the space success of a standardised system which relies crashing nose down to the ground. programme as a whole. on performance to attract customers; but It is a particularly tricky investigation and consistency in expecting successive changes SpaceX founder Elon Musk has openly Imperatives and modifications is not desirable. To achieve admitted that he would like the help of NASA It is vital that companies such as SpaceX thrive the reliability which customers seek operators 404 Spaceflight Vol 58 November 2016 NEWS ANALYSIS must develop systems which are sufficiently mission, delivering the first commercial cargo few days in the schedule. robust to limit the damage caused by failure. to the International Space Station (ISS), was a Spacecom had insured Amos-6 in the No engineer can afford to assume that failure success. Marine cargo market for launch-plus-one will not occur and any new system – be it a Evaluating and calculating insurance year, only going on risk at the point of ignition spacecraft or a rocket – must have designed premiums is a dark art and this did little to for launch, not ignition for test. In either case, in to its systems engineering protocols a penalise SpaceX in the marketplace, largely no ignition took place so that is irrelevant.
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