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Eb.Org ANALYTICAL REVIEW of the PENSION SYSTEM in KENYA Pension Development in Africa – Opportunities and Challenges Conference Proceedings of the OECD/IOPS Global Forum on Private Pensions Global Forum on Private Pensions Mombasa, October 2008 www.iopsweb.org ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE PENSION SYSTEM IN KENYA Sundeep K Raichura 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE PENSION SYSTEM IN KENYA ....................................... 1 1. Introduction............................................................................................................................ 3 2. Situation Analysis and the Current Pensions System in Kenya ............................................. 4 i. Kenya‟s population and employment structure ................................................................... 4 ii. Relevant macro-economic and poverty incidence data ...................................................... 6 iii. Relevant financial sector data ........................................................................................... 6 iv. Current pensions system in Kenya .................................................................................... 7 3. The New Regulatory Framework in Kenya ......................................................................... 17 i. Motivation for new Legislation and Regulatory Framework ............................................ 17 ii. Fundamental Tenets of New Legislation ......................................................................... 17 iii. Role and effectiveness of the regulatory authority - the RBA ........................................ 19 iv. Evaluation of Outcomes of the Retirement Benefits Legislation .................................... 20 4. The Case for Further Reform and for a Coordinated Strategy for Reform .......................... 24 i. The Case for Further Reform ............................................................................................ 24 ii. The case for a coordinated reform strategy ...................................................................... 26 5. Principal Objectives and Possible Options for Further Reform ........................................... 26 i. Strengthening the institutional structures of the current pension system; ......................... 27 ii. Reforming the PSPS through a combination of parametric and structural reform .......... 28 iii. Expanding coverage through appropriate policy measures, including exploring the feasibility of introducing a universal subsistence level tax financed state pension........ 28 iv. Increasing overall benefit adequacy levels of the pension system through a phased increase in mandatory contributions. ................................................................................... 29 6. Conclusions and Lessons from Pension Reform in Kenya .................................................. 30 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................ 32 2 1. Introduction An increasing number of African countries have recently initiated reform of their pension and social protection systems. Over the last decade, Kenya has also undertaken a major reform of parts of its pension system. Whereas the primary motivation for reform of pension systems in many countries worldwide has been to address the growing fiscal burden of pension liabilities, in Kenya the major driver for reform was to strengthen the governance, management and effectiveness of the existing pensions system. A new Retirement Benefits Act was enacted in 1997 and a comprehensive framework of regulations was implemented three years later in 2000. A regulatory authority, the Retirement Benefits Authority („the RBA‟) was established at the same time to regulate, supervise and promote the retirement benefits sector in Kenya. Reform of the National Social Security Fund („the NSSF‟), the mandatory scheme for all formal sector employees in Kenya (other than public service employees) has also been firmly on the national agenda with wide debate on the nature and extent of role the NSSF should play as part of the pension and social protection system in Kenya. Kenya also has a separate pension plan for public service employees financed on a pay-as-you-go basis which is currently also part of the broader pension reform programme under consideration. A decade into the reform is a good time to take stock and assess the reform initiatives and the results achieved. Some of the positive effects of the legislation have started to be seen and thinking is now shifting to policy issues and the challenges of increasing coverage, benefit adequacy and the growth of retirement savings. Indeed over the past three years in Kenya, there has been consensus on the need for further reform of the system. The achievements of the past decade, particularly with respect of voluntary employer sponsored occupational schemes, provides a good basis on which to implement further reforms to increase coverage and reduce post-retirement poverty levels. The purposes of this paper are to (i) present an analysis of the current pension system in Kenya and the reforms undertaken to date, (ii) identify key areas and weaknesses of the existing system which merit further attention and (iii) suggest strategies that may enable the objectives of broader pension reform to be met. This paper is structured as follows. The next section describes the current pension system in Kenya. Section 3 outlines the key tenets of the new regulatory framework and evaluates the results to date. Section 4 makes the case for further reform and the need for a coordinated strategy to reform. Section 5 suggests possible reform strategies for the different elements of the pensions system in Kenya and a suggested order of priorities. Section 6 summarises the key conclusions and lessons that may be learnt from the pension reform in Kenya. This paper is prepared as a discussion document and hopefully highlights some of the key issues that policy makers and stakeholders may consider as part of the continued debate on pension reform in Kenya. 3 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and not representative of his profession or employer. The author acknowledges the contribution of colleagues and in particular, Angela Okinda for assisting with some of the analysis in this paper and for reviewing the paper. One of the key challenges faced in this analytical review has been the lack of readily available data and this has limited the scope of the analysis and the level of detail that can be presented. 2. Situation Analysis and the Current Pensions System in Kenya i. Kenya’s population and employment structure Kenya‟s population at the last census in 1999 was indicated at 28.7m. The population is currently estimated at 36.1m1 and is projected to increase to 55.4m by 2050. The proportion of the population above age 55 is estimated at 6% whilst 41% of the population is estimated to be below age 15. The population of Kenya is thus still young, but is projected to age and by the time today‟s labour force market entrants retire, the proportion of the population above age 55 is expected to almost triple. The dependency ratio (ratio of elderly to active labour force) is also expected to increase from 12% to 30% by 20502 Dependency Ratios 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 Age 55+/15-54 Age 60+/15-59 Age 65+/15-64 Source: Can we afford age old pensions by Charles Machira 1 Source: Economic Survey 2007. 2 Interpolated from UN World Population Prospects base year 2000 projections. 4 Total employment outside rural small scale agriculture and pastoral activities was estimated at 8.7m in 2006. Of this, formal sector employees comprised 1.9m (or 21% of total recorded employment) and the informal sector (commonly referred to as the ‘jua kali’ sector) which covers informal urban and the agriculture workers comprised 79% of the total recorded labour force. More importantly, over 80% of the new jobs in the last three years have been created in the informal sector3 As the table below shows, the proportion of formal sector employees has declined from 77.5% in 1988 to 21.3% in 2006. Wage Self Employed & Year Total '000 Informal Sector(%) Employment (%) Unpaid workers (%) 1988 1736.3 77.5 2.5 20.0 1989 1796.2 76.2 2.5 21.3 1990 2395.0 58.8 2 39.2 1991 2557.1 56.4 2 41.6 1992 2753.2 53.1 2 44.9 1993 2997.5 49.2 1.9 48.9 1994 3355.1 44.8 1.7 53.8 1995 3855.1 40.4 1.6 58 1996 4325.8 37.4 1 61.1 1997 4698.4 35.1 1.4 63.5 1998 5083.2 32.7 1.4 65.9 1999 5477.5 30.5 1.2 68.2 2000 5893.0 28.4 1.1 70.4 2002 6873.5 24.7 0.95 74.3 2003 7339.4 23.5 0.90 75.6 2004 7822.8 22.6 0.85 76.6 2005 8271.5 21.9 0.81 77.3 2006 8740.5 21.3 0.77 78.0 Source: Various Economic Surveys Thus akin to many other countries in Africa, a significant majority of workers in Kenya belong to the informal urban or agricultural sector with the relative size of the formal sector workforce declining significantly as a percentage of total employment over the last two decades. Also worthy of noting that females constitute 50.1% of the total population but only about 29.4% have formal employment and earn on average 33% less than their male counterparts4. 3 Source Data: Economic Survey 2007 4 Maureen Were and Jane Kiringai, 2004 5 ii. Relevant macro-economic and poverty incidence data5 Kenya‟s GDP was estimated at K Shs 1,642bn (or US$ 22.01bn) in 2006 and per capita GDP at K Shs 45,485 (or US$ 650). Agriculture remains the mainstay of the economy contributing 23% of GDP. Other key contributors to GDP include
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