Global Warming's Increasingly Visible Impacts
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Global Warming’s Increasingly Visible Impacts Global Warming’s Increasingly Visible Impacts AUTHORS Dr. James Wang Dr. Bill Chameides Acknowledgments We would like to thank Dr. Michael Oppenheimer (Princeton Univ.), Dr. Tim Male, Annie Petsonk, Peter Goldmark and Melissa Carey for reviewing this report. Erica Rowell, Allan Margolin and Elizabeth Thompson provided helpful comments and suggestions. Lauren Sacks, Deepali Dhar, Valentin Bellassen and Alena Herklotz provided valuable assistance with researching and drafting parts of the report. Thanks go to Miriam Horn for the editing work, Bonnie Greenfield for the design and pro- duction, and Sarah Stevens, Jennifer Coleman and Tim Connor for assistance in obtaining images. Cover images: Ray Berkelsman, CRC Reef, Townsville (bleached corals), Bryan Dahlberg/FEMA News Photo (wildfire), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Arctic fox) Our mission Environmental Defense is dedicated to protecting the environmental rights of all people, including the right to clean air, clean water, healthy food and flourishing ecosystems. Guided by science, we work to create practical solutions that win lasting political, economic and social support because they are nonpartisan, cost-effective and fair. ©2005 Environmental Defense The complete report is available online at www.environmentaldefense.org. Contents Signs of global warming in the United States, region by region iv Executive summary v Introduction 1 Part I: Extreme events 3 Killer heat waves 3 Torrential rains and flooding 4 Drought 5 Forests and wildfires 7 Part II: Sea level rise and coastal flooding 10 Part III: Snow, land ice and sea ice 13 Shrinking snowpack 13 Vanishing glaciers 13 Polar ice disintegration 16 Melting permafrost and damage to infrastructure 17 Part IV: Ecological impacts 19 Damage to coral reefs 19 Shifting species ranges and yearly cycles 20 Declining Arctic animal populations 20 Declining amphibian populations 22 Part V: Outbreaks of vector-borne diseases 24 Conclusion 26 References 27 iii Signs of global warming in the United States, region by region Southeast/South-Central/ Sierra Nevada peaks 3 weeks earlier. Caribbean Islands Part III, “Shrinking snowpack,” page 13. • Smoke from record wildfires in Mexico • South Cascade Glacier in Washington triggers health alert in Texas, 1998. at smallest size ever in the last 6,000 Part I, “Forests and wildfires,” page 7. years. Part III, “Vanishing glaciers,” • Loss of nearly 1 million acres of page 13. wetlands in Louisiana due in part to • Decline in populations of mountain sea-level rise. Part II, page 10. amphibians in Pacific Northwest. • Coral bleaching in consecutive years Part IV,“Declining amphibian popu- observed for the first time in Florida lations,” page 22. Keys 1997–1998. Part IV,“Damage to • First large-scale coral bleaching event coral reefs,” page 19. ever documented in Hawaii in 1996. Part IV,“Damage to coral reefs,” page 19. Northeast/Mid-Atlantic • Loss of large areas of wetlands in Alaska Chesapeake Bay. Part II, page 10. • World's largest recorded outbreak of spruce bark beetles, 1990s. Part I, Midwest/Plains “Forests and wildfires,” page 7. • Deadly Chicago heat wave, 1995. • Worst fire season in 2004; record levels Part I, “Killer Heat Waves,” page 3. of unhealthful smoke particles. Part I “Forests and wildfires,” page 7. Rocky Mountains/Southwest • Shrinkage and thinning of sea ice • One of the worst droughts in 500 years affecting traditional hunting. Part III, in the West, 1999-2004. Part I, “Polar ice disintegration,” page 16. “Drought,” page 5. • Damage to houses, roads, and villages • Worst wildfire season in 50 years in and disruption of mining activities by the West, 2000. Part I, “Forests and melting permafrost. Part III, “Melting wildfires,” page 7. permafrost and damage to infrastructure,” • 16% decline in snowpack in the page 17. Rockies; Spring snow melt begins • Decline in caribou populations due to nine days earlier. Part III, “Shrinking earlier spring. Part IV,“Declining Arctic snowpack,” page 13. animal populations,” page 20. • Dramatic shrinkage of glaciers in Glacier National Park. Part III, Nationwide “Vanishing glaciers,” page 13. • Increase in frequency of intense • Outbreaks of hantavirus in the past precipitation events. Part I, “Torrential decade linked to heavy rains. Part V, rains and flooding,” page 4. page 24. • Sea level rise averaging 4 to 8 inches over 20th century. Part II, page 10. Pacific Coast/Hawaii/ • Migrations and shifts in yearly cycles Pacific Islands of plants and animals, including many • 29% decline in snowpack in the butterfly species. Part IV,“Shifting Cascades; streamflow throughout species ranges and yearly cycles,” page 20. iv Executive summary Global warming will not only be felt many Europe in July and August of 2003. That decades from now—it is already happen- summer was very likely the continent’s ing and its impacts are clearly visible. This hottest in 500 years. The relentless heat paper gathers examples from the peer- killed at least 27,000 people, breaking reviewed scientific literature of recent all records worldwide for heat-induced impacts around the world. These include human fatalities. The heat and associated increases in extreme weather events, rising drought and wildfires cost European sea level, disappearing glaciers and polar economies more than $14.7 billion ice, damaged coral, changes in wildlife (13 billion euros) in losses in the agricul- distributions and health, and increased ture, forestry, and electric power sectors. activity and abundance of disease vectors. Records have been shattered in other Although a direct link to global warming parts of the world as well in recent years. is difficult to establish for some of these In April-June 1998, 3,028 people died phenomena in isolation, the multitude of in the most disastrous heat wave to ever changes collectively provide clear evidence hit India. In 1995, a five-day heat wave of the immediate and growing danger that caused 525 deaths in Chicago, with the global warming poses to the economy, 106°F (41°C) reading on July 13 the human health, and the ecosystems upon warmest July temperature ever measured. which humans and other species depend. Since greenhouse gas pollution stays in • Torrential rains and flooding the atmosphere for decades or centuries, According to the available data, global humanity may have no more than a dec- warming has increased the intensity of ade left to begin stabilizing the climate to precipitation events over recent decades. avert devastating and irreversible impacts. In December 1999, for instance, Vene- Such an achievement will require a con- zuela saw its highest monthly rainfall in certed effort among all nations. 100 years, with massive landslides and The following are highlights of the flooding that killed approximately 30,000 global warming impacts described in people. On two days in the city of Mai- this report. For readers particularly quetia, rains fell with an intensity nor- interested in the United States, we mally experienced just once in 1,000 years. include, preceding this Executive Sum- mary, a listing of domestic impacts by • Drought, forest pests, and wildfires region. (For a comprehensive rebuttal of From 1998 to 2002, below-normal skeptics’ claims regarding the science of precipitation and high temperatures global warming, see our earlier report, resulted in droughts covering wide The Latest Myths and Facts on Global swaths of North America, southern Warming, available at http://www.undoit Europe, and southern and central Asia. .org/what_is_gb_myth.cfm.) Drought continued in some regions In brief, this is what the scientific through 2004, including the western studies show: U.S., which endured the most severe drought in 80 years and one of the most • Killer heat waves severe in 500 years. The worldwide Human-caused global warming may drought has been linked to unusually have already doubled the chance of warm waters in the Indian Ocean and “killer” heat waves like the one that hit western Pacific, which many scientists v believe to be caused in part by global basis for the four-and-a-half billion warming. dollar U.S. ski industry. Over the past Insect pests are spreading to forests 50 years, spring snowpack has dimin- previously too cold for their survival; ished by 16% in the Rocky Mountains Alaska, for instance, had in the 1990s and 29% in the Cascade Range, due the world’s largest recorded outbreak of mainly to rising temperatures. Further- spruce bark beetles. more, springtime snowmelt in the Drought, heat, and insect attacks western U.S. now begins 9 days earlier promote severe forest fires. In 2004, on average, lowering stream levels Alaska had its warmest and third driest during the dry summer months. It will summer, resulting in its worst fire year be extremely difficult to solve the prob- on record, with fires consuming an area lem of crippling, long-term water short- of forest the size of Maryland. All told, ages in the West without addressing over the past 30 years, the area burned global warming. annually by wildfires in the Arctic region In almost every mountainous region of western North America has doubled. across the world, glaciers are retreating In Russia, the area of forest burned annu- in response to the warming climate. The ally more than doubled in the 1990s shrinkage of glaciers is already creating compared to the previous two decades. water shortages, and threatening tour- ism in scenic parks. In one basin in • Rising sea level Glacier National Park in Montana, for Sea-level rise is one of the most certain instance, two-thirds of the ice has dis- impacts of global warming. During the appeared since 1850; with uncontrolled 20th century, sea levels around the world warming, the remaining glaciers could rose by an average of 4 to 8 inches (10 to disappear by 2030. In the European 20 cm), ten times the average rate over the Alps, ice that had hidden and preserved last 3,000 years.