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Exploring the Emergence of Renewable Energy Grids in Developing Countries with Agent Based Models by Jose Alfaro

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Exploring the Emergence of Renewable Energy Grids in Developing Countries with Agent Based Models by Jose Alfaro Exploring the Emergence of Renewable Energy Grids in Developing Countries with Agent Based Models by Jose Alfaro A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Natural Resources and Environment) in the University of Michigan 2014 Doctoral Committee: Associate Professor Shelie Miller, Chair Professor Gregory A. Keoleian Research Professor Rick Riolo Assistant Professor Ming Xu © Jose Alfaro 2014 Dedication To all the L’s in my life and my one S, Lindy, Leidy, Luis B., Luis A. and Sidney, and to God who’s strength never left me even when I left him. ii Acknowledgements I would like to acknowledge the generous funding sources that allowed me to complete my work. The National Science Foundation allowed me a great freedom to pursue my academic interests and become a potential faculty member through the Graduate Student Fellowship Program. Rackham Graduate School provided me with a dissertation grant that helped me focus on my final steps at the end of my Ph.D. The School of Natural Resources and Environment also helped fund my last year at UM so that I could focus on my research and publications. Through my career I was also fortunate to obtain grants for diverse proJects and endeavors from the EHELD program, the African Studies Center, the United Nations Development Program, and other donors. We may be fooled to think that getting a Ph.D. is an individual accomplishment, but its not. Many people are involved in pushing the student towards the achievement. While at some points the work is incredibly lonely and in the end the student is responsible, no one would be able to make it without help and direction from a wonderful group of people. I was incredibly blessed with the committee that guided my work. My advisor, Shelie Miller, was patient, kind, and incredibly insightful. From the moment we met at a meeting not even planned, to the very end, she saw things in me that I could not. Her insistence that I could come up with a unique research theme separate from her work scared me to pieces, but in the end was one of the best things she did for me. Shelie provided an incredible wealth of knowledge, encouragement, and even tough love when it was necessary. She provided me with freedom to pursue academic endeavors and wise guidance to turn them into useful contributions my field. Not to mention she was even crazy enough to join us on a trip to Liberia and go fishing with her bare hands in the muck! Greg Keoleian provided me with some incredible encouragement to dig deeper into my technical skills while expanding into the social realm. His input to my work was always wise, sound, and made me feel like I had a great ally in my corner. Greg of course went above and beyond what is needed from a committee member while supporting my crazy iii extramural activities with Sustainability Without Borders and engaged learning. His support and vision for the program are key to how the organization and the opportunities for students at SNRE have gained momentum. I can’t say enough about Rick Riolo. I was fortunate to receive my introduction to complexity from such a key player in the field. Every time I spoke to Rick I was more keenly aware of the wealth of knowledge he had but more importantly of how he was trying to throw me into the deep end of thought exercises I never thought I could participate in. Rick’s comments and feedback were never easy to handle. Mainly because I could find myself going down a rabbit hole of new ideas and opportunities that could take me a life time to pursue. I owe so much to Rick, specially knowing that even when struggling with his health he was always available to help me, to advise me, or to offer the best wine he had around to enjoy a friendly evening. I am indebted to Ming Xu for pushing me into clearly defining the literature I would base my work on and for encouraging me to make my literature review deeper and more robust. I also owe Ming a great deal for providing me with some amazing opportunities for growing as a professional in academia. I highly recommend for all graduate students to find a mentor outside of their committee. I was lucky enough to have Rachel Kaplan as my mentor and friend. She became what I call my Academic Fairy-God-Mother. I know I can always bring anything to Rachel and expect to hear wise and honest words. She took time to make sure I knew how to find things I needed, ensured that I asked myself the right questions for success, and above all she was always a source of support and encouragement. In her I had a crutch and a champion that allowed me to reach higher than I expected. I want to thank Jeremiah Johnson for becoming a wonderful collaborator. Jeremiah looked at my work with a critical eye that pushed me to improve. He also allowed me to bridge my work towards developed countries and to include more realistic and robust considerations in everything I did. I am pretty sure that without him I would have finished faster but with him I finished stronger. My graduate life at University of Michigan was enriched by my participation in the Excellence in Higher Education for Liberian Development (EHELD) program for which I need to thank Herbert Winful, Kelly Askew, and Cinda Sue Davis. Dr. Herbert Winful iv provided me with a platform where I gained professional experiences that I would have never dreamed off. His kindness and trust allowed me to develop a project that has lit a passion in me for engaged education and for increasing the ability of students at both sides of the ocean to interact with each other. Along with Herb, Kelly Askew allowed me to serve in the STEM Africa Committee and gave me a network of people that I have learned to admire and emulate. Not to mention Kelly was always protecting our progress to graduation even if that meant our involvement in EHELD had to be dialed back. Cinda Sue Davis became an amazing supporter and mentor. I have to thank her for all she did to ensure that EHELD and I would be successful but also for showing me the passion needed for engaging students in STEM fields. Cinda’s passion and endless energy motivate me to continue pushing for better education for all students I may have in the future. I must thank her also for being a faithful supporter of my efforts and my crazy ideas. I also have to thank the students and volunteers that participated in EHELD and in Sustainability Without Borders. Without them my work at Michigan and Liberia would have much harder and lonely. With them it was a constant adventure of learning, teaching, and support. My sincere thanks to those students and volunteers from Michigan, Liberia, Sierra Leon, and other places that made me a much richer man! Some seven years ago my friends Matt Moore and Will McGinty sat in my living room for one of our many man-meetings. I remember telling them that I would be happy running experiments and finding things out for the rest of my life. I had the perfect job, an unlimited expense account, and a home with the picket fence… the American dream. They did no bat an eye in encouraging me to leave it all behind to pursue the desires of my heart. I used to write poetry at the time. When I said I was afraid I would not be able to write a dissertation Matt told me “Write it as poem!” It was probably the first time I considered it possible for me to write something important. I wish I had been able to write my dissertation in verse. Sorry Matt! I owe those guys incredibly! Throughout my life I have always had a place where I can crash no matter how tired, messed up, or crazy I had become. That is the home of my friends David and Jennifer Talley. This family has always made sure that I know I can mess up, fail, and still come to v the arms of people who love me. They encouraged me to pursue this degree and I owe them for that. The same is true for Dr. Jerry Russell who told me when I graduated from undergrad that he believed I was not done learning. I have come to be weary of Dr. Russell’s comments, he tends to prophesy. But perhaps no one has had more influence in my desire to travel the globe and engage with communities than him. I love him as a spiritual mentor and the amazing man that has always encouraged me to chase an adventure. Quiero agradecerle a mis padres Leidy Villalobos y Luis González por el amor que siempre me han otorgado. A pesar de que a veces no saben o entienden lo que yo hago nunca han deJado de apoyarme y empuJarme a hacer lo meJor que yo pueda. Nunca me han deJado de amar con un corazón al que no le importa lo que yo halla hecho, si no el simple hecho de que ellos son mi familia. Me aman, y eso ha sido mi escudo y mi lanza para seguir adelante pase lo que pase. Como siempre me lo han dicho, al fin y al cabo siempre seré su chiquito y siempre podre regresar a mi hogar donde sé que soy amado.
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