The Financial Times: Scandals and Debacles
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The Financial System and Global Socioeconomic Cbanges Yuichiro Nagatomi Occasional Paper No.4 Yuichiro Nagatomi is President of the Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Ministry of Finance, Japan This paper originated as a lecture given at the "Regulating International Financial Markets: Issues and Policies" conference, held at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in May, 1990. The conference was sponsored by the Center on Japanese Economy and Business and the Center for the Study of Futures Markets at Columbia University, the Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy of the Ministry of Finance, Japan, and the Foundation for Advanced Information and Research (FAIR), Japan. Occasional Paper Series Center on Japanese Economy and Business Graduate School of Business Columbia University June 1990 I have a few comments on some recent changes in financial structure and also changes in the effects of monetary policy which perhaps need more discussion. 1. Socio-Economic Structure Changes: "Softnomization" The industrialized countries - the United States, Japan, and Europe - attained modernization and industrialization after the Industrial Revolution. In recent years, their socio-economic structures have been changing in a way we call "softnomization". In pre-modern times, people lived with nature's cycle - the "path of nature" or the "soft path". The "path of mechanization and automation" or the "hard path", pursued in the process of modernization and industrialization has blessed mankind with material affluence. It also has brought about "global environmental problems and maladies to advanced nations, such as drug use and other urban crimes, and it has deteriorated the vitality and quality of the society. "Softnomization" means a softening of the hard path, by seeking harmony between the "hard path" of modern times and the "soft path" of pre-modern times. -
Speech: Would More Regulation Prevent Another Black Monday?, July 20, 1988
u.S.Securities and Exchange Commission [N]@\Wl~ Washington,D. C. 20549 (202) 272-2650 ~@~@@~@ WOULD MORE REGULATION PREVENT ANOTHER BLACK MONDAY? Remarks to the CATO Institute Policy Forum Washington, D.C. July 20, 19.88 Joseph A. Grundfest Commissioner The views expressed herein are those of Commissioner Grundfest and do not necessarily represent those of the Commission, other Commissioners, or Commission staff. WOULD MORE REGULATION PREVENT ANOTHER BLACK MONDAY? Remarks to the CATO Institute Policy Forum July 21, 1988 Joseph A. Grundfest It's a pleasure to be here this afternoon to deliver an address on such a noncontroversial topic. Government regulators in Washington, D.C. have a well deserved reputation for dancing around difficult issues and not giving straight answers to simple questions. Well, I'd like to prove that I'm not your typical Washington, D.C. regulator and give you a straight answer to the question, "Would more regulation prevent another Black Monday?" The answer is an unequivocable yes, no, and maybe. The answer also depends on what you mean by more regulation and why you believe the market declined on Black Monday. With that issue cleared up, I'd like to thank all of you for attending and invite you to join the reception being held immediately after this speech. Thank you very much. It's been a pleasure. Actually, the question of whether more regulation could prevent another Black Monday is not as difficult as it seems, if you keep three factors in mind. First, it is important to distinguish between fundamental factors that initiated or contributed to the decline, and regulatory or structural factors that may have unnecessarily exacerbated the decline. -
October 19, 1987 – Black Monday, 20 Years Later BACKGROUND
October 19, 1987 – Black Monday, 20 Years Later BACKGROUND On Oct. 19, 1987, “Black Monday,” the DJIA fell 507.99 (508) points to 1,738.74, a drop of 22.6% or $500 billion dollars of its value-- the largest single-day percentage drop in history. Volume surges to a then record of 604 million shares. Two days later, the DJIA recovered 289 points or 16.6% of its loss. It took two years for the DJIA to fully recover its losses, setting the stage for the longest bull market in U.S. history. Date Close Change Change % 10/19/87 1,738.70 -508.00 -22.6 10/20/87 1,841.00 102.30 5.9 10/21/87 2,027.90 186.90 10.2 Quick Facts on October 11, 1987 • DJIA fell 507.99 points to 1,738.74, a 22.6% drop (DJIA had opened at 2246.74 that day) o Record decline at that time o Friday, Oct. 16, DJIA fell 108 points, completing a 9.5 percent drop for the week o Aug. 1987, DJIA reached 2722.42, an all-time high; up 48% over prior 10 months o Today, DJIA above 14,000 • John Phelan, NYSE Chairman/CEO -- Credited with effective management of the crisis. A 23-year veteran of the trading floor, he became NYSE president in 1980 and chairman and chief executive officer in 1984, serving until 1990 NYSE Statistics (1987, then vs. now) 1987 Today (and current records) ADV - ytd 1987 (thru 10/19): 181.5 mil ADV – 1.76 billion shares (NYSE only) shares 10/19/1987: 604.3 million shares (reference ADV above) 10/20/1987: 608.1* million shares (reference ADV above) Oct. -
The Future of Europe the Eurozone and the Next Recession Content
April 2019 Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research The future of Europe The Eurozone and the next recession Content 03 Editorial Publication details This report has been prepared by UBS AG and UBS Switzerland AG. Chapter 1: Business cycle Please see important disclaimer and 05 Cyclical position disclosures at the end of the document. 08 Imbalances This report was published on April 9 2019 10 Emerging markets Authors Ricardo Garcia (Editor in chief) Chapter 2: Policy space Jens Anderson Michael Bolliger 14 Institutional framework Kiran Ganesh Matteo Ramenghi 16 Fiscal space Roberto Scholtes Fabio Trussardi 19 Monetary space Dean Turner Thomas Veraguth Thomas Wacker Chapter 3: Impact Contributors Paul Donovan 23 Bond markets Elisabetta Ferrara Tom Flury 26 Banks Bert Jansen Claudia Panseri 29 Euro Achim Peijan Louis Pfau Giovanni Staunovo Themis Themistocleous Appendix Desktop Publishing 32 The evolution of the EU: A timeline Margrit Oppliger 33 Europe in numbers Cover photo 34 2020–2025 stress-test scenario assumptions Gettyimages Printer Neidhart + Schön, Zurich Languages English, German and Italian Contact [email protected] Order or subscribe UBS clients can subscribe to the print version of The future of Europe via their client advisor or the Printed & Branded Products Mailbox: [email protected] Electronic subscription is also available via the Investment Views on the UBS e-banking platform. 2 April 2019 – The future of Europe Editorial “Whatever it takes.” These words of Mario Draghi’s marked the inflection point in the last recession and paved the way to the present economic recovery. But as the euro celebrates its 20th birthday, the world and investors are beset again by recessionary fears, with risks mounting and likely to continue doing so in the coming years. -
The 100 Most Important American Financial Crises an Encyclopedia
The 100 Most Important American Financial Crises An Encyclopedia of the Lowest Points in American Economic History Quentin R. Skrabec Jr. Q GREENWOOD AN IMPRINT OF ABC-CLIO, LLC Santa Barbara, California • Denver, Colorado • Oxford, England Contents Preface xiii Acknowledgments xv Introduction xvii 1676—Bacon's Rebellion 1 1703—Tobacco Depression 4 1719—Mississippi Bubble 6 1733—Molasses Act 9 1749—Colonial Hyperinflation and Currency Deflation 12 1750—IronAct 15 1762—Colonial Recession 17 1764-1765—Sugar Act, Currency Act, and Stamp Act Boycotts 19 1772—Credit Crisis 22 1776—War Financing Crisis 24 1781—Currency Deflation and Inflation 28 1790—Debt Assumption, Debt Retirement, and Expanding the Economy 31 1792—Panic 33 1794—Whiskey Tax Rebellion 37 1796-1797—Panic 40 1800—Trade Interference by Barbary Coast Pirates 43 1807—Economic Embargo and Depression 45 1812—War of 1812 48 vii viii | Contents 1816-1819—Economic Warfare and Dumping by Great Britain 51 1819—Panic 53 1820s—Cotton Recession 56 1825—British Panic and Its American Impact 58 1828—Tariff of Abominations 60 1833—Andrew Jackson Closes the Bank of the United States and Lowers Tariffs 63 1837—Panic and Six-Year Depression 66 1847—Panic 69 1848—Gold Rush Boom and Bust 71 1850—Whale Oil Shortage: The First Energy Crisis 73 1854—Panic 76 1854—Deel ine of American Canals 78 1857—Panic 81 1861—Civil War Economics, Shortages, and Inflation 83 1862—Union Blockade and Inflation 85 1869—Grant's Recession 88 1873—Panic and Global Depression 90 1877—Great National Railroad Strike 93 1880s—New -
Anatomy of a Crisis
Page 7 Chapter 2 Munich: Anatomy of A Crisis eptember 28, 1938, “Black Wednesday,” dawned on a frightened Europe. Since the spring Adolf Hitler had spoken often about the Sudetenland, the western part of Czechoslovakia. Many of the 3 Smillion German-speaking people who lived there had complained that they were being badly mistreated by the Czechs and Slovaks. Cooperating closely with Sudeten Nazis, Hitler at first simply demanded that the Czechs give the German-speakers within their borders self-government. Then, he upped the ante. If the Czechs did not hand the Sudetenland to him by October 1, 1938, he would order his well-armed and trained soldiers to attack Czechoslovakia, destroy its army, and seize the Sudetenland. The Strategic Location of the Sudetenland Germany’s demand quickly reverberated throughout the European continent. Many countries, tied down by various commitments and alliances, pondered whether—and how—to respond to Hitler’s latest threat. France had signed a treaty to defend the Czechs and Britain had a treaty with France; the USSR had promised to defend Czechoslovakia against a German attack. Britain, in particular, found itself in an awkward position. To back the French and their Czech allies would almost guarantee the outbreak of an unpredictable and potentially ruinous continental war; yet to refrain from confronting Hitler over the Sudetenland would mean victory for the Germans. In an effort to avert the frightening possibilities, a group of European leaders converged at Munich Background to the Crisis The clash between Germany and Czechoslovakia over the Sudetenland had its origins in the Versailles Treaty of 1919. -
The Rising Thunder El Nino and Stock Markets
THE RISING THUNDER EL NINO AND STOCK MARKETS: By Tristan Caswell A Project Presented to The Faculty of Humboldt State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Business Administration Committee Membership Dr. Michelle Lane, Ph.D, Committee Chair Dr. Carol Telesky, Ph.D Committee Member Dr. David Sleeth-Kepler, Ph.D Graduate Coordinator July 2015 Abstract THE RISING THUNDER EL NINO AND STOCK MARKETS: Tristan Caswell Every year, new theories are generated that seek to describe changes in the pricing of equities on the stock market and changes in economic conditions worldwide. There are currently theories that address the market value of stocks in relation to the underlying performance of their financial assets, known as bottom up investing, or value investing. There are also theories that intend to link the performance of stocks to economic factors such as changes in Gross Domestic Product, changes in imports and exports, and changes in Consumer price index as well as other factors, known as top down investing. Much of the current thinking explains much of the current movements in financial markets and economies worldwide but no theory exists that explains all of the movements in financial markets. This paper intends to propose the postulation that some of the unexplained movements in financial markets may be perpetuated by a consistently occurring weather phenomenon, known as El Nino. This paper intends to provide a literature review, documenting currently known trends of the occurrence of El Nino coinciding with the occurrence of a disturbance in the worldwide financial markets and economies, as well as to conduct a statistical analysis to explore whether there are any statistical relationships between the occurrence of El Nino and the occurrence of a disturbance in the worldwide financial markets and economies. -
Friday, June 21, 2013 the Failures That Ignited America's Financial
Friday, June 21, 2013 The Failures that Ignited America’s Financial Panics: A Clinical Survey Hugh Rockoff Department of Economics Rutgers University, 75 Hamilton Street New Brunswick NJ 08901 [email protected] Preliminary. Please do not cite without permission. 1 Abstract This paper surveys the key failures that ignited the major peacetime financial panics in the United States, beginning with the Panic of 1819 and ending with the Panic of 2008. In a few cases panics were triggered by the failure of a single firm, but typically panics resulted from a cluster of failures. In every case “shadow banks” were the source of the panic or a prominent member of the cluster. The firms that failed had excellent reputations prior to their failure. But they had made long-term investments concentrated in one sector of the economy, and financed those investments with short-term liabilities. Real estate, canals and railroads (real estate at one remove), mining, and cotton were the major problems. The panic of 2008, at least in these ways, was a repetition of earlier panics in the United States. 2 “Such accidental events are of the most various nature: a bad harvest, an apprehension of foreign invasion, the sudden failure of a great firm which everybody trusted, and many other similar events, have all caused a sudden demand for cash” (Walter Bagehot 1924 [1873], 118). 1. The Role of Famous Failures1 The failure of a famous financial firm features prominently in the narrative histories of most U.S. financial panics.2 In this respect the most recent panic is typical: Lehman brothers failed on September 15, 2008: and … all hell broke loose. -
The Origins and Development of Financial Markets and Institutions: from the Seventeenth Century to the Present
This page intentionally left blank The Origins and Development of Financial Markets and Institutions Collectively, mankind has never had it so good despite periodic economic crises of which the current sub-prime crisis is merely the latest example. Much of this success is attributable to the increasing efficiency of the world’s financial institutions as finance has proved to be one of the most important causal factors in economic performance. In a series of original essays, leading financial and economic historians examine how financial innovations from the seventeenth century to the present have continually challenged established institutional arr- angements forcing change and adaptation by governments, financial intermediaries, and financial markets. Where these have been success- ful, wealth creation and growth have followed. When they failed, growth slowed and sometimes economic decline has followed. These essays illustrate the difficulties of coordinating financial innovations in order to sustain their benefits for the wider economy, a theme that will be of interest to policy makers as well as economic historians. JEREMY ATACK is Professor of Economics and Professor of History at Vanderbilt University. He is also a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and has served as co-editor of the Journal of Economic History. He is co-author of A New Economic View of American History (1994). LARRY NEAL is Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where he was founding director of the European Union Center. He is a visiting professor at the London School of Economics and a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). -
History of Financial Turbulence and Crises Prof
History of Financial Turbulence and Crises Prof. Michalis M. Psalidopoulos Spring term 2011 Course description: The outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis has rekindled academic interest in the history of fi‐ nancial turbulence and crises – their causes and consequences, their interpretations by eco‐ nomic actors and theorists, and the policy responses they stimulated. In this course, we use the analytical tools of economic history, the history of economic policy‐ making and the history of economic thought, to study episodes of financial turbulence and crisis spanning the last three centuries. This broad historical canvas offers such diverse his‐ torical examples as the Dutch tulip mania of the late 17th century, the German hyperinflation of 1923, the Great Crash of 1929, the Mexican Peso crisis of 1994/5 and the most recent sub‐ prime mortgage crisis in the US. The purpose of this historical journey is twofold: On the one hand, we will explore the prin‐ cipal causes of a variety of different manias, panics and crises, as well as their consequences – both national and international. On the other hand, we shall focus on the way economic ac‐ tors, economic theorists and policy‐makers responded to these phenomena. Thus, we will also discuss bailouts, sovereign debt crises and bankruptcies, hyperinflations and global re‐ cessions, including the most recent financial crisis of 2008 and the policy measures used to address it. What is more, emphasis shall be placed on the theoretical framework with which contemporary economists sought to conceptualize each crisis, its interplay with policy‐ making, as well as the possible changes in theoretical perspective that may have been precipi‐ tated by the experience of the crises themselves. -
Financial Catastrophe Research & Stress Test Scenarios
Cambridge Judge Business School Centre for Risk Studies 7th Risk Summit Research Showcase Financial Catastrophe Research & Stress Test Scenarios Dr Andy Skelton Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies 20 June 2016 Cambridge, UK Financial Catastrophe Research 1. Catalogue of historical financial events 2. Development of stress test scenarios 3. Understanding contagion processes in financial networks (eg, interbank loans) - Network models & visualisations - Role of central banks in financial crises - Practitioner model – scoping exercise 2 Learning from History Financial systems and transaction technologies have changed But principles of credit cycles, human trust and financial interrelationships that trigger crises remain relevant 12 Historical Financial Crisis Crises occur periodically – Different causes and severities – Every 8 years on average – $0.5 Tn of lost annual economic output – 1% of global economic output Without FinCat global growth could be 4% a year instead of 3% Financial catastrophes are the single greatest economic risk for society – We need to understand them better 3 Historical Severities of Crashes – Past 200 Years US Stock Market Crashes UK Stock Market Crashes 1845 Railway Mania… 1845 Railway Mania… 1997 Asian Crisis 1997 Asian Crisis 1866 Collapse of Overend… 1866 Collapse of Overend… 1825 Latin American Crisis 1825 Latin American Crisis 1983 Latin American Debt… 1983 Latin American Debt… 1837 Cotton Crisis 1837 Cotton Crisis 1857 Railroad Mania… 1857 Railroad Mania… 1907 Knickerbocker 1907 Knickerbocker -
Scandals and Abstraction: Financial Fiction of the Long 1980S
Scandals and Abstraction Scandals and Abstraction financial fiction of the long 1980s Leigh Claire La Berge 1 1 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 © Oxford University Press 2015 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data La Berge, Leigh Claire. Scandals and abstraction : financial fiction of the long 1980s / Leigh Claire La Berge. pages cm Includes index. ISBN 978-0-19-937287-4 (hardback)—ISBN 978-0-19-937288-1 (ebook) 1.