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The Financial and Economic Crisis of 2008-2009 and Developing Countries
THE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2008-2009 AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Edited by Sebastian Dullien Detlef J. Kotte Alejandro Márquez Jan Priewe UNITED NATIONS New York and Geneva, December 2010 ii Note Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document. The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the UNCTAD secretariat. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Material in this publication may be freely quoted; acknowl edgement, however, is requested (including reference to the document number). It would be appreciated if a copy of the publication containing the quotation were sent to the Publications Assistant, Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, UNCTAD, Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10. UNCTAD/GDS/MDP/2010/1 UNITeD NatioNS PUblicatioN Sales No. e.11.II.D.11 ISbN 978-92-1-112818-5 Copyright © United Nations, 2010 All rights reserved THE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS O F 2008-2009 AND DEVELOPING COUN T RIES iii CONTENTS Abbreviations and acronyms ................................................................................xi About the authors -
Staff Working Paper No. 845 Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline, 1311–2018 Paul Schmelzing
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The Financial System and Global Socioeconomic Cbanges Yuichiro Nagatomi Occasional Paper No.4 Yuichiro Nagatomi is President of the Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Ministry of Finance, Japan This paper originated as a lecture given at the "Regulating International Financial Markets: Issues and Policies" conference, held at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in May, 1990. The conference was sponsored by the Center on Japanese Economy and Business and the Center for the Study of Futures Markets at Columbia University, the Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy of the Ministry of Finance, Japan, and the Foundation for Advanced Information and Research (FAIR), Japan. Occasional Paper Series Center on Japanese Economy and Business Graduate School of Business Columbia University June 1990 I have a few comments on some recent changes in financial structure and also changes in the effects of monetary policy which perhaps need more discussion. 1. Socio-Economic Structure Changes: "Softnomization" The industrialized countries - the United States, Japan, and Europe - attained modernization and industrialization after the Industrial Revolution. In recent years, their socio-economic structures have been changing in a way we call "softnomization". In pre-modern times, people lived with nature's cycle - the "path of nature" or the "soft path". The "path of mechanization and automation" or the "hard path", pursued in the process of modernization and industrialization has blessed mankind with material affluence. It also has brought about "global environmental problems and maladies to advanced nations, such as drug use and other urban crimes, and it has deteriorated the vitality and quality of the society. "Softnomization" means a softening of the hard path, by seeking harmony between the "hard path" of modern times and the "soft path" of pre-modern times. -
Speech: Would More Regulation Prevent Another Black Monday?, July 20, 1988
u.S.Securities and Exchange Commission [N]@\Wl~ Washington,D. C. 20549 (202) 272-2650 ~@~@@~@ WOULD MORE REGULATION PREVENT ANOTHER BLACK MONDAY? Remarks to the CATO Institute Policy Forum Washington, D.C. July 20, 19.88 Joseph A. Grundfest Commissioner The views expressed herein are those of Commissioner Grundfest and do not necessarily represent those of the Commission, other Commissioners, or Commission staff. WOULD MORE REGULATION PREVENT ANOTHER BLACK MONDAY? Remarks to the CATO Institute Policy Forum July 21, 1988 Joseph A. Grundfest It's a pleasure to be here this afternoon to deliver an address on such a noncontroversial topic. Government regulators in Washington, D.C. have a well deserved reputation for dancing around difficult issues and not giving straight answers to simple questions. Well, I'd like to prove that I'm not your typical Washington, D.C. regulator and give you a straight answer to the question, "Would more regulation prevent another Black Monday?" The answer is an unequivocable yes, no, and maybe. The answer also depends on what you mean by more regulation and why you believe the market declined on Black Monday. With that issue cleared up, I'd like to thank all of you for attending and invite you to join the reception being held immediately after this speech. Thank you very much. It's been a pleasure. Actually, the question of whether more regulation could prevent another Black Monday is not as difficult as it seems, if you keep three factors in mind. First, it is important to distinguish between fundamental factors that initiated or contributed to the decline, and regulatory or structural factors that may have unnecessarily exacerbated the decline. -
October 19, 1987 – Black Monday, 20 Years Later BACKGROUND
October 19, 1987 – Black Monday, 20 Years Later BACKGROUND On Oct. 19, 1987, “Black Monday,” the DJIA fell 507.99 (508) points to 1,738.74, a drop of 22.6% or $500 billion dollars of its value-- the largest single-day percentage drop in history. Volume surges to a then record of 604 million shares. Two days later, the DJIA recovered 289 points or 16.6% of its loss. It took two years for the DJIA to fully recover its losses, setting the stage for the longest bull market in U.S. history. Date Close Change Change % 10/19/87 1,738.70 -508.00 -22.6 10/20/87 1,841.00 102.30 5.9 10/21/87 2,027.90 186.90 10.2 Quick Facts on October 11, 1987 • DJIA fell 507.99 points to 1,738.74, a 22.6% drop (DJIA had opened at 2246.74 that day) o Record decline at that time o Friday, Oct. 16, DJIA fell 108 points, completing a 9.5 percent drop for the week o Aug. 1987, DJIA reached 2722.42, an all-time high; up 48% over prior 10 months o Today, DJIA above 14,000 • John Phelan, NYSE Chairman/CEO -- Credited with effective management of the crisis. A 23-year veteran of the trading floor, he became NYSE president in 1980 and chairman and chief executive officer in 1984, serving until 1990 NYSE Statistics (1987, then vs. now) 1987 Today (and current records) ADV - ytd 1987 (thru 10/19): 181.5 mil ADV – 1.76 billion shares (NYSE only) shares 10/19/1987: 604.3 million shares (reference ADV above) 10/20/1987: 608.1* million shares (reference ADV above) Oct. -
The Bank Restriction Act and the Regime Shift to Paper Money, 1797-1821
European Historical Economics Society EHES WORKING PAPERS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY | NO. 100 Danger to the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street? The Bank Restriction Act and the regime shift to paper money, 1797-1821 Patrick K. O’Brien Department of Economic History, London School of Economics Nuno Palma Department of History and Civilization, European University Institute Department of Economics, Econometrics, and Finance, University of Groningen JULY 2016 EHES Working Paper | No. 100 | July 2016 Danger to the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street? The Bank Restriction Act and the regime shift to paper money, 1797-1821* Patrick K. O’Brien Department of Economic History, London School of Economics Nuno Palma Department of History and Civilization, European University Institute Department of Economics, Econometrics, and Finance, University of Groningen Abstract The Bank Restriction Act of 1797 suspended the convertibility of the Bank of England's notes into gold. The current historical consensus is that the suspension was a result of the state's need to finance the war, France’s remonetization, a loss of confidence in the English country banks, and a run on the Bank of England’s reserves following a landing of French troops in Wales. We argue that while these factors help us understand the timing of the Restriction period, they cannot explain its success. We deploy new long-term data which leads us to a complementary explanation: the policy succeeded thanks to the reputation of the Bank of England, achieved through a century of prudential collaboration between the Bank and the Treasury. JEL classification: N13, N23, N43 Keywords: Bank of England, financial revolution, fiat money, money supply, monetary policy commitment, reputation, and time-consistency, regime shift, financial sector growth * We are grateful to Mark Dincecco, Rui Esteves, Alex Green, Marjolein 't Hart, Phillip Hoffman, Alejandra Irigoin, Richard Kleer, Kevin O’Rourke, Jaime Reis, Rebecca Simson, Albrecht Ritschl, Joan R. -
The 100 Most Important American Financial Crises an Encyclopedia
The 100 Most Important American Financial Crises An Encyclopedia of the Lowest Points in American Economic History Quentin R. Skrabec Jr. Q GREENWOOD AN IMPRINT OF ABC-CLIO, LLC Santa Barbara, California • Denver, Colorado • Oxford, England Contents Preface xiii Acknowledgments xv Introduction xvii 1676—Bacon's Rebellion 1 1703—Tobacco Depression 4 1719—Mississippi Bubble 6 1733—Molasses Act 9 1749—Colonial Hyperinflation and Currency Deflation 12 1750—IronAct 15 1762—Colonial Recession 17 1764-1765—Sugar Act, Currency Act, and Stamp Act Boycotts 19 1772—Credit Crisis 22 1776—War Financing Crisis 24 1781—Currency Deflation and Inflation 28 1790—Debt Assumption, Debt Retirement, and Expanding the Economy 31 1792—Panic 33 1794—Whiskey Tax Rebellion 37 1796-1797—Panic 40 1800—Trade Interference by Barbary Coast Pirates 43 1807—Economic Embargo and Depression 45 1812—War of 1812 48 vii viii | Contents 1816-1819—Economic Warfare and Dumping by Great Britain 51 1819—Panic 53 1820s—Cotton Recession 56 1825—British Panic and Its American Impact 58 1828—Tariff of Abominations 60 1833—Andrew Jackson Closes the Bank of the United States and Lowers Tariffs 63 1837—Panic and Six-Year Depression 66 1847—Panic 69 1848—Gold Rush Boom and Bust 71 1850—Whale Oil Shortage: The First Energy Crisis 73 1854—Panic 76 1854—Deel ine of American Canals 78 1857—Panic 81 1861—Civil War Economics, Shortages, and Inflation 83 1862—Union Blockade and Inflation 85 1869—Grant's Recession 88 1873—Panic and Global Depression 90 1877—Great National Railroad Strike 93 1880s—New -
The Rising Thunder El Nino and Stock Markets
THE RISING THUNDER EL NINO AND STOCK MARKETS: By Tristan Caswell A Project Presented to The Faculty of Humboldt State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Business Administration Committee Membership Dr. Michelle Lane, Ph.D, Committee Chair Dr. Carol Telesky, Ph.D Committee Member Dr. David Sleeth-Kepler, Ph.D Graduate Coordinator July 2015 Abstract THE RISING THUNDER EL NINO AND STOCK MARKETS: Tristan Caswell Every year, new theories are generated that seek to describe changes in the pricing of equities on the stock market and changes in economic conditions worldwide. There are currently theories that address the market value of stocks in relation to the underlying performance of their financial assets, known as bottom up investing, or value investing. There are also theories that intend to link the performance of stocks to economic factors such as changes in Gross Domestic Product, changes in imports and exports, and changes in Consumer price index as well as other factors, known as top down investing. Much of the current thinking explains much of the current movements in financial markets and economies worldwide but no theory exists that explains all of the movements in financial markets. This paper intends to propose the postulation that some of the unexplained movements in financial markets may be perpetuated by a consistently occurring weather phenomenon, known as El Nino. This paper intends to provide a literature review, documenting currently known trends of the occurrence of El Nino coinciding with the occurrence of a disturbance in the worldwide financial markets and economies, as well as to conduct a statistical analysis to explore whether there are any statistical relationships between the occurrence of El Nino and the occurrence of a disturbance in the worldwide financial markets and economies. -
Financial Catastrophe Research & Stress Test Scenarios
Cambridge Judge Business School Centre for Risk Studies 7th Risk Summit Research Showcase Financial Catastrophe Research & Stress Test Scenarios Dr Andy Skelton Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies 20 June 2016 Cambridge, UK Financial Catastrophe Research 1. Catalogue of historical financial events 2. Development of stress test scenarios 3. Understanding contagion processes in financial networks (eg, interbank loans) - Network models & visualisations - Role of central banks in financial crises - Practitioner model – scoping exercise 2 Learning from History Financial systems and transaction technologies have changed But principles of credit cycles, human trust and financial interrelationships that trigger crises remain relevant 12 Historical Financial Crisis Crises occur periodically – Different causes and severities – Every 8 years on average – $0.5 Tn of lost annual economic output – 1% of global economic output Without FinCat global growth could be 4% a year instead of 3% Financial catastrophes are the single greatest economic risk for society – We need to understand them better 3 Historical Severities of Crashes – Past 200 Years US Stock Market Crashes UK Stock Market Crashes 1845 Railway Mania… 1845 Railway Mania… 1997 Asian Crisis 1997 Asian Crisis 1866 Collapse of Overend… 1866 Collapse of Overend… 1825 Latin American Crisis 1825 Latin American Crisis 1983 Latin American Debt… 1983 Latin American Debt… 1837 Cotton Crisis 1837 Cotton Crisis 1857 Railroad Mania… 1857 Railroad Mania… 1907 Knickerbocker 1907 Knickerbocker -
Scandals and Abstraction: Financial Fiction of the Long 1980S
Scandals and Abstraction Scandals and Abstraction financial fiction of the long 1980s Leigh Claire La Berge 1 1 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 © Oxford University Press 2015 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data La Berge, Leigh Claire. Scandals and abstraction : financial fiction of the long 1980s / Leigh Claire La Berge. pages cm Includes index. ISBN 978-0-19-937287-4 (hardback)—ISBN 978-0-19-937288-1 (ebook) 1. -
Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money
UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations 1-1-1991 Early speculative bubbles and increases in the supply of money Douglas Edward French University of Nevada, Las Vegas Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/rtds Repository Citation French, Douglas Edward, "Early speculative bubbles and increases in the supply of money" (1991). UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations. 167. http://dx.doi.org/10.25669/h29l-bf64 This Thesis is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by Digital Scholarship@UNLV with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Thesis in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Thesis has been accepted for inclusion in UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Scholarship@UNLV. For more information, please contact [email protected]. INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. -
The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame
WILL s A system reset seems imminent. The world’s finan- cial system will need to find a new anchor before the year 2020. Since the beginning of the credit s crisis, the US realized the dollar will lose its role em as the world’s reserve currency, and has been planning for a monetary reset. According to Willem Middelkoop, this reset MIDD Willem will be designed to keep the US in the driver’s seat, allowing the new monetary system to include significant roles for other currencies such as the euro and China’s renminbi. s Middelkoop PREPARE FOR THE COMING RESET E In all likelihood gold will be re-introduced as one of the pillars LKOOP of this next phase in the global financial system. The predic- s tion is that gold could be revalued at $ 7,000 per troy ounce. By looking past the American ‘smokescreen’ surrounding gold TWarh on Golde and the dollar long ago, China and Russia have been accumu- lating massive amounts of gold reserves, positioning them- THE selves for a more prominent role in the future to come. The and the reset will come as a shock to many. The Big Reset will help everyone who wants to be fully prepared. Financial illem Middelkoop (1962) is founder of the Commodity BIG Endgame Discovery Fund and a bestsell- s ing author, who has been writing about the world’s financial system since the early 2000s. Between 2001 W RESET and 2008 he was a market commentator for RTL Television in the Netherlands and also BIG appeared on CNBC.