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Financial Institutions Performance Survey FIPS March 2020 Quarterly Results 2 | KPMG | FIPS Quarterly Results March 2020 Overview

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Financial Institutions Performance Survey FIPS March 2020 Quarterly Results 2 | KPMG | FIPS Quarterly Results March 2020 Overview Financial Institutions Performance Survey FIPS March 2020 Quarterly Results 2 | KPMG | FIPS Quarterly Results March 2020 Overview While the impact of the economic During this period, the Reserve In order to encourage the flow of crisis caused by the COVID-19 health Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the credit, the RBNZ removed the loan- crisis was only just starting at the Government and the banks worked to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions for end of the March quarter, the results together on initiatives designed a 12-month period5 and introduced for the quarter demonstrate that its to assist the banks and their term funding to banks at a very low impact was also just starting to be felt customers through the economic and interest rate to help them support by the banks. financial impact. the Government’s Business Finance Guarantee Scheme and promote The results published here are for In order to reduce pressure and allow lending to businesses6. the quarter ended 31 March 2020. resources to focus on customers, the The majority of the COVID-19 related RBNZ granted the banks extensions New Zealand moved to Alert Level 2 impacts have happened since then. of between 6 and 12 months to on Wednesday, 13 May, and to Alert comply with various regulatory and Level 1 on Monday, 8 June. The Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, policy requirements1 and delayed announced an Alert System to manage At Alert Level 1, there are no implementation of capital changes for and minimise the risk of COVID-19 restrictions on businesses, however, a year. in New Zealand and the country there is still considerable impact being moved to Alert Level 4 on Wednesday, This was quickly followed by a felt. With tight border restrictions in 25 March 2020. The lockdown was $9.3 billion business support package place for the foreseeable future those one of the most restrictive in the which included wage subsidies, in the tourism and hospitality sectors world and immediately reduced a $6.25 billion Business Finance who rely heavily on international economic activity. Guarantee Scheme for small to visitors are being particularly affected. medium-sized businesses and a Financial services were largely mortgage deferral scheme for those deemed to be essential services so Strong banking system whose incomes had been affected by were able to continue operating even Throughout this whole period, the the economic disruption caused by during this full lockdown. However, RBNZ and individual banks have COVID-192. there were fundamental changes to emphasised that New Zealand banks how business was done. Branches are in a strong financial position7. were shut and the vast majority of The RBNZ implemented a Large staff were required to work from Scale Asset Purchase Programme of We entered this medical/economic home. This caused initial challenges New Zealand Government Bonds to crisis with our banking system due to available bandwidth and inject $30 billion into the economy in a strong position and capital hardware as well as working through over a 12-month period. The adequacy remained stable. compliance requirements data programme was later increased to a privacy aspects and the impact on potential $60 billion. personal lives. Largely due to the changes made Then came the influx of customer following the Global Financial Crisis The RBNZ implemented a Large queries about mortgage deferrals (GFC), we entered this medical/ Scale Asset Purchase Programme of and potential financial hardship once economic crisis with our banking New Zealand Government Bonds3 to schemes to support borrowers were system in a strong position and inject $30 billion into the economy over announced. While the initial flood capital adequacy remained stable in a 12-month period. The programme of enquiries has passed, we expect the quarter ended March 2020. The was later increased to a potential the number of customers dealing banks have been building up these $60 billion4. with financial hardship as a result of capital buffers and are now being the crisis to increase as the effects Moving to Alert Level 3 on Monday, encouraged by the RBNZ to utilise continue to impact customers for 27 April, enabled banks to open some these buffers in order to continue to some time to come. of their branches for restricted hours lend since the RBNZ have extended and for some non-essential businesses the time allowed to meet the new to resume operations, subject to strict minimum requirements. physical distancing and increased hygiene requirements. © 2020 KPMG, a New Zealand partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. FIPS Quarterly Results March 2020 | KPMG | 3 While there is a lot of work currently Challenges to come The banks will be challenged with being done by the banks to ensure valuing loan assets in sectors that The challenges for a lot of people are compliance with the RBNZ’s BS11 have been most impacted by the still to come as the impacts of this Outsourcing Policy regulation, which economic crisis, such as retail, tourism economic crisis play out. This means requires New Zealand banks to be and hospitality. The current level of that the banks will be facing some able to operate completely onshore, provisioning indicates that there is tough decisions as households and the crisis triggered by the pandemic a great level of uncertainty as to businesses are affected. has clearly demonstrated a strong how this will play out. If we look at advantage to the New Zealand The definition of vulnerable customers provisioning levels after the GFC, we based banks having control of their is changing and there is likely to can see how they emerged over time, own operations. Some banks found be an increasing number that fall but the big question is whether this their business continuity plans were into this new classification. Bank crisis will be the same in the way it challenged when several offshore models, algorithms and guidelines plays out. call centres and processing centres used to assist banks in their decision The low interest rates we are seeing were out of action at the same time. making around these customers are now are a result of the combination As the local branches were closed, increasingly at risk of being based on of the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate New Zealand staff were repurposed to outdated and less relevant information (OCR) reduction from 1.00% down answer customer queries. so there is some work to be done on to 0.25% in March (see Figure 1 on identifying where these assumptions page 8) and global rates falling as the are built into decision-making negative implications of COVID-19 The message is that the banks are frameworks and how to reassess started to become apparent. The not invincible, but they are well using appropriate data points. positioned to play a significant RNBZ announced that it would remain part in the support and then the at this level for at least 12 months. recovery of New Zealand’s economy. The RBNZ has encouraged banks to While the banks did cut their mortgage be courageous in their lending. rates accordingly, they have continued to reduce their rates with a mini The RBNZ has been stress testing ‘mortgage war’ currently resulting in the banks with several scenarios8 The RBNZ has encouraged banks to historic low fixed rates of 2.55% and ranging in severity and it feels that be courageous in their lending9. The floating rates of 3.40% available in the the banks are well placed to deal levels of lending are likely to ramp market (see Table 5 on page 9). with this crisis which the RBNZ up over the next few months as the New mortgage lending was not considers to be a one in a 200-year full implications of the economic impacted for the quarter, in part due to event. The message is that the banks crisis are felt for some individuals and COVID-19 restrictions only impacting are not invincible, but they are well businesses and their loans increase as the last week of the quarter. In fact, positioned to play a significant part in a result of missed payments, while the there was an increase of 1.27% the support and then the recovery of low interest rates encourage others compared to the previous quarter and New Zealand’s economy. to borrow for home improvements or an increase of 4.64% compared to other investments. The strong financial position of the the same period in 2019. RBNZ data banks going into this economic The Government’s wage subsidy has shows that April lending is much lower crisis means that while profits were injected cash into a number of wage due to lockdown, but bounced back to impacted in the quarter ended March earners’ bank accounts. For some, 70% of March’s level in May. 2020, the banks are currently able to this will have been enough to cope While the proportion of new lending absorb this. There is a long way to go with their immediate hardship, but below 80% LVR remained stable, this before we will come to understand the for others it will only have delayed the could be higher for the quarter ending full economic impact of COVID-19 in need for further assistance. For many, June 2020 following the removal of New Zealand and it will truly only be borrowing will remain a last resort, as the LVR restrictions by the RBNZ seen in future quarters. the banks, and responsible lending for 12 months from the end of April.
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