Chapter 3 Aviation and Passenger Forecast (2015-2035)
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CHAPTER 3 AVIATION AND PASSENGER FORECAST (2015-2035) 3.1 OVERVIEW significant decrease occurred in 2007 due to a recession. From 2007 to 2010, an 18% decrease This chapter summarizes historical aviation and was observed totaling 5,346,694 passengers in passenger activity at OGG and presents annual 2010. Although this represents an 8.29% aviation demand forecasts through the 2035 increase over a 20-year period from 1990 to planning period. The base forecast year for this 2010, a larger increase was previously seen from study is 2014. The forecast, together with 1970 to 1990 which saw a 323% increase. information on existing and presently planned According to passenger forecasts by Martin facilities presented in Chapter 2 are used in Associates, LLC, (See Appendix A, “Passenger Chapter 4 to evaluate and identify modifications and Operations Level Projections, Kahului and/or additions to existing airport facilities that Airport, October 2011”), passenger levels will are necessary and appropriate for development. not return to pre-recession (2007) levels until after 2025. Air operations from 2001 to 2007, 3.2 PASSENGER ACTIVITY AND reflects the decline in passenger counts. See FORECAST Figure 3-2 on Page 3-2. Figure 3-1 on Page 3-2 shows total historic Regularly scheduled direct overseas service to inter-island air passenger levels between 1990 OGG started in January 1983. Prior to this date, and 2014. Data for 2015 (last quarter) is overseas flights to OGG were occasionally estimated and passenger activity levels are for chartered. The number of overseas flights has both enplanements and deplanements. increased while inter-island traffic has declined from 1990 to 2014. See Figure 3-3 on Page 3-3. The events of September 11, 2001 saw a significant decrease in passengers. A second Kahului Airport Master Plan Update 3-1 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 Passengers 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Total Air Passengers Interisland Air Passengers Figure 3-1 Historical Passenger Levels at Kahului and Maui Passenger Levels Operations Figure 3-2 Operations at Kahului Airport 1990-2014 Scheduled overseas air carrier service is currently overseas points is provided through the provided by Air Canada, Alaska Airlines, Honolulu International Airport (HNL). American Airlines, Continental Airlines, Delta Scheduled inter-island air carrier service is Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, United Airlines, U. S. provided primarily by Hawaiian Airlines on Airways, and WestJet, using Boeing 737 (B-737), Boeing 717 (B-717) aircraft. American Airlines Boeing 757 (B-757), Boeing 767 (B-767), and and Continental Airlines offer some passenger Boeing 777 (B-777) aircrafts. Non-stop domestic flight services to Honolulu. overseas service is provided to Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Oakland, Phoenix, Hawaiian Airlines, Mokulele Airlines, Island Air, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Makani Kai Air provide regularly scheduled Seattle/Tacoma, and Vancouver. Service between inter-island commuter airline service. Additional the OGG and other domestic and foreign Kahului Airport Master Plan Update 3-2 Passengers Figure 3-3 Overseas Flights versus Inter-Island Flights to Kahului See Figure 3-2 on Page 3-2. Air taxi operations inter-island flights are provided by increased from 1990 to 1999 by approximately nonscheduled sightseeing air taxis with 91,000. There was a sharp decline in 2001, passenger origins primarily from HNL. followed by a gradual increase in 2010 to 59,387 The number of inter-island passengers increased operations (Department of Business, Economic slightly from 1990 to 2001 from 3,343,653 to Development and Tourism (DBEDT), Hawai’i 3,582,229. Over the last decade, the inter-island Tourism Authority (HTA, 2010)). passenger volumes presented in Figure 3-3 The helicopter sightseeing tour companies include passengers transported by regularly primarily use four (4) to six (6) passenger Bell scheduled commuter airlines and nonscheduled, sightseeing air taxis. Most inter-island 206, Hughes 500, and Aerospatiale AS-350 passengers during this period used regularly helicopters. These companies do not file passenger data with the State; consequently no scheduled flight services. A number of official annual passenger counts are available. sightseeing tour operators are based at HNL and However, discussions with representatives of the park their aircraft at OGG’s East Ramp for the helicopter companies suggest that most flights duration of the sightseeing tour. Some air taxi operate at, or close to, their passenger seating flights are also provided by OGG’s fixed base operators. capacity. 3.2.1 HELICOPTER/AIR TAXI ACTIVITY 3.2.2 INTRA STATE PASSENGER ORIGIN-DESTINATION DATA In addition to the inter-island sightseeing air taxi services, a number of helicopter sightseeing Statistics on inter-island and overseas operations companies offer tours of Haleakalā, Hāna, ‘Iao between the OGG and other airports from 1990 Valley, and other scenic attractions on Maui from to 2014 are presented in Figure 3-3. During this OGG’s East Ramp. These companies include period, overall aircraft operations have been Papillon Helicopters, Alex Air, Maui Helicopters, decreasing for inter-island travel. However, Hawai‘i Helicopters, Sunshine Helicopters, Kenai overseas aircraft traffic to OGG increased during Air of Hawai‘i, Cardinal Helicopters, Pacific the same period. Helicopter Tours, Makani Kai Helicopters, and 3.2.3 AIR CARGO ACTIVITY Blue Hawaiian Helicopters. The historical volume of air cargo, enplaned and Helicopter operations, categorized as air taxi at deplaned, at OGG are presented in Figure 3-4. OGG, numbered approximately 56,030 in 1990. Kahului Airport Master Plan Update 3-3 (lbs.)Pounds Figure 3-4 Air Cargo Activity at Kahului Airport (1990-2014) on Page 3-4. The figures include cargo carried 3.2.5 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS by both air taxi and scheduled air carriers Total aircraft operations reported at the OGG Most of the all-cargo inter-island flights occur at declined from 182,686 in 1990 to 118,896 in night, with Aloha Air Cargo B-737-200 aircrafts 2010. This constitutes a 35% decrease over a 20 handling the bulk of the loads. Incoming flights year period. See Figure 3-6 on Page 3-5. Some to OGG deliver a wide variety of perishable food of the changes in air carrier, air taxi, and general items, newspapers, and manufactured goods. aviation operations indicated by the data are Outgoing cargo consists primarily of perishables due to changes in the way aircraft operations are such as fruits and vegetables. United Parcel classified rather than to actual changes in the Service (UPS) is another all-cargo carrier using B- number of aircraft flying. An example of this 767 aircraft. change is the de Havilland Canada Dash 7 (DHC- From 2010 to 2014, air cargo on signatory inter- 7). Since 1989, the FAA counts the DHC-7 aircraft island carriers was moved on B-767 aircraft. operations as “commuter/air taxi operations”, Non-signatory cargo mainly used B-737-200 and whereas they were previously included in the “air B-737-300 aircraft. In 2010, there were no carrier” category. overseas signatory cargo operations. Cargo From 1990 to 2014, air carrier and air taxi tonnage handled at OGG peaked at about operations at OGG have been declining with 46,000 tons in 2003 and has been steadily projected increases occurring after 2015. General decreasing. As shown in Figure 3-4, air cargo aviation operations have been sharply operations have shown no growth, overall. Some decreasing from 1990 to 2014. However, military factors inhibiting growth on air cargo operations aircraft operations have been relatively stable include the increased use of inter-island compared to other operations over the last 20 maritime shipping as well as decreased years. The military operations consist primarily of pineapple shipments. training flights by the Hawai‘i Air National Guard 3.2.4 MAIL and U. S. Navy and Marine Corps aircrafts based on O‘ahu. Figure 3-2 on Page 3-2 shows a Figure 3-5 on Page 3-5 shows the volume of breakdown of the total operations, both mail handled at OGG. Since 1990, there has been historical and forecasted, for air carriers, air taxi, a consistent increase in mail volume. general aviation, and military flights. Kahului Airport Master Plan Update 3-4 Passengers Figure 3-5 Air Mail Handled at Kahului Airport Source: DOTA. State of Hawaii Airport Activity Statistics by Calendar Year. (2014) Passengers Figure 3-6 Total Annual Operations at Kahului Source: DOTA. (2014) 3.2.6 BASED AIRCRAFT 3.3 AVIATION DEMAND There are currently 71 fixed base aircraft FORECAST operations at OGG; 36 helicopters and 35 fixed The DOTA Hawai‘i Aviation Demand Forecasts, wing aircraft, situated along the East Ramp. updated in 2004, provides forecasts for Aircraft are housed in T-hangars or utilize passengers, air cargo and mail, aircraft tiedowns fronting the T-hangars. operations, and based aircraft for all of the major airports in the State. Appendix A contains a description of the methodology used in developing the forecasts. It is expected that OGG Kahului Airport Master Plan Update 3-5 Overseas Operations (2007-2035) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 No. of Operations of No. 4,000 2,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Years Figure 3-7 Overseas Operations Historical Data from 2007 to 2014 and Forecast Data from 2015 to 2035 Source: Hawaii Aviation Demand Forecasts will remain the principal airport on the island of growth rate increases and that no policies would Maui and should be expanded as needed to be implemented to constrain aviation growth. support the island’s growth. The aviation activity Figure 3-7 shows historic aviation data (2007– forecasts for OGG are presented in Figure 3-7 2014) and forecasted overseas operations (2015– and Figure 3-8 on Page 3-7.