Hart Slipping As Key Caucuses and Primaries Take Place

The Harris Poll

For release: Sunday AM, February 7, 1988 1988 111 ISSN 0895-7983

HART SLIPPING AS KEY CAUCUSES AND PRIMARIES TAKE PLACE By Louis Harris Right after he came back into the Democratic race, Gary Hart shot right to the head of the list of preferred candidates among Democratic and independent voters. He amassed 32 percent of the vote, compared with Jesse Jackson and Governor Michael Dukakis, who were tied for second at 14 percent. Among just Democrats, Hart had 35 percent, Jackson 17 percent, and Dukakis 13 percent. As the month of January passed, the signs all pointed to a decline in the Hart vote. Indeed, in telephone interviewing completed by the Harris Poll among a sample of 1,408 Democratic and independent voters nationwide, from January 7th to 11th and January 20th to 26th, Hart had dropped 13 points to 19 percent, while Jackson came up to 15 percent, a close second. Among just Democratic voters, Hart dropped 15 points from 35 to 20 percent while Jackson stayed the same at -17 percent. This national pattern parallels what apparently has happened in Iowa where the first Democratic caucuses in the nation will be held this Tuesday. Right after he declared his reentry into the race, Hart soared to the top of the polls of potential attendees at Democratic caucuses there. After a few weeks, his totals dropped and he was running third or fourth and showed signs of fading. Part of the reason for this, of b course, was that without any organization, it will be difficult to bring out the Hart vote, compared with other candidates who have spent many months organizing district by district. However, in the New Hampshire primary on February 16th, organization may be less important, because voters do not have to go to caucus meetings, but instead into a voting place and cast their ballot for a given candidate. Having upset Walter Mondale in New Hampshire four years ago, Hart is obviously a well known figure. Therefore, if Hart's vote in Iowa tomorrow may understate the number who might normally vote for him, in New Hampshire, a more accurate gauge of the actual Hart appeal might be revealed. The nature of the vote for Gary Hart is something of a puzzlement to political professionals and analysts alike. When the Harris Poll recently pitted Hart against Vice President Bush he ran 18 points behind among a cross section' of likely voters. Against Senator Dole, Hart ran an even worse 22 points behind. It would take an enormous shift of opinion for Hart to get back into an actual election contest against either Bush or Dole. Part of the reason for Hart's showing may well be the direct result of his being known. He is a familiar figure to 91 percent of all Democratic voters, while his opponents, except for Jesse Jackson, are known to less than 6 in every 10 voters. Jackson is known to 94 percent of Democratic voters. The fact that Hart and Jackson have tended to dominate the list of Democrats nationally surely must be in part due to this name familiarity. But, in the latest Harris Poll, yet another reason for Hart's showing of strength is evident: -- When asked whom they would prefer for the Democratic presidential nomination if Hart were out of the race, 42 percent of the supporters of the former Colorado Senator said they would then back Jesse Jackson. Another 9 percent said they would back Senator Paul Simon, 8 percent Governor Michael Dukakis, 8 percent Representative Richard Gephardt, 6 percent Senator Albert Gore, and 5 percent former Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona.

(over I THE HARRIS POLL February 7, 1988

By the same token, when Jackson voters are asked for whom they would vote if their choice was out of the race, by far the largest number, 50 percent, say they would vote for Hart. In other words, close to half the Hart vote and half the Jackson vote have an affinity for either of those candidates to the exclusion of the other five Democrats in \4 the race. This affinity of Jackson and Hart voters suggests a type of voter that is being attracted to Gary Hart: people who are perhaps more interested in delivering a message that is anti-establishment than in seriously getting a candidate nominated. While Jackson may end up with as much as 25 percent of the Democratic delegates in Atlanta next July, the chances are not high that he will be nominated. Much the same might be said about Hart, no matter what percent of the delegates he might receive, unless, of course, he won an outright majority in the caucuses and primaries. Indeed, the data points strongly to the fact that Hart has attracted to his banner Democratic voters who would like to register a protest. If that is the case, then it is entirely possible for the Hart vote in primaries to remain fairly high, perhaps levelling out at somewhere between 10 and 15 percent. If he were able to translate that percentage into delegates, then it is possible for Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson to amass as many as 35 or 40 percent of the total delegates in their column at the Democratic convention. In turn, that could mean that the ultimate choice of the Democrats would not be made before the convention, as has been the case in every convention in this primary era, but instead in a brokered, old fashion type of process. It is still too early to say with any accuracy what Gary Hart will do. He is truly the wild card of this season's Democratic contest. He is fading, but may just hold onto enough support to tie up enough delegates to keep any other candidate from winning the nomination by the end of the primary season.

TABLES Between January 7th and 11th and January 20th and 26th, the Harris Poll asked a nationwide cross section of 1,408 Democratic and independent voters by telephone: "Let me read you a list of some people who have been mentioned as possible Democratic candidates for president in 1988. Who on that list do you feel you are not 4 familiar with?" FAMILIARITY WITH DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

Democrats and Independents Democrats Independents % % % Reverend Jesse Jackson Former Senator Gary Hart of Colorado Senator Paul Simon of Illinois Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts Representative Richard Gephardt of Missouri Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee Former Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona Know all

(continued) Y THE HARRIS POLL -3- February 7, 1988

# "Now, if you had to choose from that list, who would be your first choice for the Democratic nomination for president in 1988?" b FIRST CHOICE FOR 1988 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION Democrats and Independents Democrats Independents % % % Former Senator Gary Hart of Colorado Reverend Jesse Jackson Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts Senator Paul Simon of Illinois Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee Representative Richard Gephardt of Missouri Former Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona None 9 9 10 Not Sure 16 19 12 "Now, if your first choice were out of it, who would be your second choice for \v the Democratic nomination for president in 19887"

WHERE HART-JACKSON VOTES WOULD GO IF THEY WERE OUT OF THE RACE FIRST CHOICE IS: GARY JESSE HART J A- % % Former Senator Gary Hart of Colorado Reverend Jesse Jackson Senator Paul Simon of Illinois Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts Representative Richard Gephardt of Missouri Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee Former Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona None Not Sure - = no response (over) THE HARRIS POLL February 7, 1988

METHODOLOGY This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between & January 7th and 11th and January 20th and 26th, among a cross section of 1,408 Democratic and independent voters nationwide. Figures for age, sex, race and education were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.