Climate Change Profile: Ghana April 2018
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Climate Change Profile Ghana Climate Change Profile | Ghana | Climate Change Profile | Ghana | Climate Change Profile | Ghana | Climate Change Profile | Ghana | Climateange Ch Profile | Ghana | Climate Change Profile | Ghana | Climate Change Profile | Ghana | Climate Change Profile | Ghana | Climate Change Profile: Ghana April 2018 Table of contents Introduction 3 Summary 3 Overall ranking 3 Biophysical vulnerability 3 Socio-economic vulnerability 5 National government strategies and policies 6 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 8 Climate finance 8 Climate change projects 9 Climate contribution of the Netherlands 9 Maps Map 1 Ghana Ecological Zones 11 Map 2 Predicted precipitation changes, 2030 (left) and 2050 (right), compared to 2010 12 Map 3 Predicted temperature changes, 2030 (left) and 2050 (right), compared to 2010 12 Map 4 Area suitability for cocoa production, current (left) and 2030 (right) 13 Map 5 Area suitability for cocoa, cotton and cashew production, current (left) and 2050 (right) 14 Annex List of projects in Ghana under international and multilateral climate funds (since 2012) 15 | 2 | Climate Change Profile: Ghana April 2018 Introduction the 68th most vulnerable country and the 85th least ready country– meaning that it is vulnerable to, and moderately This climate change profile is designed to help integrate ready to combat climate change effects. Vulnerability climate actions into development activities. It complements measures the country’s exposure, sensitivity, and ability to the publication ‘Climate-smart = Future-Proof! – Guidelines cope with the negative effects of climate change by for Integrating climate-smart actions into development considering vulnerability in six life-supporting sectors: policies and activities’ and provides answers to some of the food, water, ecosystem service, health, human habitat and questions that are raised in the step-by-step approach in infrastructure. Readiness measures a country’s ability to these guidelines. leverage investments and convert them to adaptation actions by considering economic, governance and social readiness. The current and expected effects of climate change differ locally, nationally and regionally. The impacts of climate change effects on livelihoods, food and water security, ecosystems, Biophysical vulnerability infrastructure etc. differ per country and region as well as community and individual, with gender a particularly Current climate. Ghana has different ecological and climatic important vulnerability factor. This profile aims to give zones (see Map 1), from coastal savannah in the far south to insight in the climate change effects and impacts in Ghana, humid rainforests in the southern half of the country and with particular attention for food security and water. It also the dry, hot Sahel in the north. Total annual rainfall is over sheds light on the policies, priorities and commitments of the 2,000 mm in the extreme southwest, less than 1,100 mm in government in responding to climate change and important the north, and 750 mm in the south eastern coastal tip5. climate-relevant activities that are being implemented, Rainfall is characterized by strong inter-annual variations including activities being internationally financed. due to El Niño events causing drier than normal conditions. There is a strong rainfall seasonality differing per zone: • North - Wet season: May – October (150-250 mm per | 3 | Summary month in peak months July-September); • North - Dry season: November – April (with hot Climate change in Ghana is projected to affect its vital water ‘Harmattan’ winds that blow from the Sahara Desert)6; resources, energy supplies, crop production and food security. • South - Long dry season: November – March; With its three northern regions the most vulnerable, Ghana is • South - Long wet season: April – July; already experiencing increased extreme weather conditions • South - Short dry season: August; with higher incidences and more prolonged periods of • South - Short wet season: September – October (20-25% flooding and droughts1. High temperatures will further of total annual rainfall)7. increase, and rainfall patterns will be less predictable. More intense rainfall is expected to increase erosion, while less Monthly mean temperature is between 25 and 30°C total rainfall may decrease the water flow. The country’s throughout the year. Temperature variations are greater vulnerability is largely due to dependence on the production in the north than in the south, with highest temperatures of crops that are sensitive to climate change, including at the onset of the dry season (April-June, 25-27°C) and cassava and cocoa, and by a lack of agricultural diversification. lowest temperatures during the wet season (July-September 25-27 °C)8. Overall ranking With most of the rain falling in intense storms of short duration, the country is vulnerable to extreme events such For GHG emissions, Ghana ranks 151 of 188 countries for per as heavy rainfall (with on average 44 mm per day) resulting capital emissions2, contributing only 0.07% of global in heavy runoff and erosion, especially at the beginning of emissions3. However, Ghana is highly vulnerable to global the rainy season9. At the same time, the long dry season in climate change. Ghana ranks 101 out of 181 countries in the the north has led to serious droughts in the region. ND-GAIN index4 (2016) for climate vulnerability. Ghana is 5 Nutsukpo, D.K.; Jalloh, A.; Zougmoré, R.; Nelson, G.C.; Thomas, T.S. (2012): West African Agriculture and Climate Change: Chapter 6 – Ghana. IFPRI/CGIAR 1 Cameron, C. (2011): Climate change finance and aid effectiveness: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/rr178ch06.pdf Ghana Case Study. OECD http://www.oecd.org/dac/environment- 6 McSweeney, C.; New, M.; Lizcano, G. (2010): UNDP Climate Change development/48458430.pdf Country Profiles: Ghana, http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/climate/ 2 https://en.actualitix.com/country/wld/co2-emissions-per-capita.php projects/undp-cp/UNDP_reports/Ghana/Ghana.hires.report.pdf analysis of World Bank data (2011 dataset) 7 Climate Service Center (2015): Climate Fact Sheet Benin-Ghana-Togo. 3 WRI (2017) http://cait2.wri.org/ http://www.climate-service-center.de/products_and_publications/ 4 GAIN index summarizes a country’s vulnerability to climate change and fact_sheets/climate_fact_sheets/index.php.en other global challenges in combination with readiness to improve 8 McSweeney et al. (2008) resilience. http://index.gain.org/country/ghana 9 Nutsukpo et al. (2012) Climate Change Profile: Ghana April 2018 Current trends. Over the last 30 years, a slight increase of total rainfall in some regions, followed by a decrease of rainfall in annual precipitation was observed10. Ghanaian farmers most regions over the longer term20 (see Map 2). Projections have identified erratic rainfall patterns, longer periods of in seasonal differences are a bit more convergent: in general, Harmattan (hot desert winds) and desertification as the rainfall increases are predicted for July – December, and main current effects of climate change11. In the eastern decreases for March – June21. For the northern regions, this Volta Basin, prolonged dry seasons have replaced shorter suggests that the start of the wet season may be delayed and dry spells12. No clear trend has been observed in the the growing season may shorten. intensity or frequency of extreme rainfall events. The temperature is expected to increase further, for the end There is evidence of a temperature increase over the past of the century a warming ranging between 1.4 to 4.2°C is decades. Mean annual temperature has increased (reports likely22. The increase is expected to be most severe in the range from +0.4 °C over 100 years13 to +1 °C over 50 years), with north of the country (see Map 3). It is expected that 25-90% the strongest increase between April and July (+0.27 °C per of all days will count as ‘hot days’ by 2100 (compared to 10% decade). The rate of increase has been more rapid in the north under the current climate) – with the highest percentage of the country than in the south. Moreover, the number of ‘hot (up to 99%) in the months of July – September23. days’ and ‘hot nights’14 has increased significantly in all seasons (by 13.2% and 20% respectively between 1960 and 2003), while These changes in rainfall and temperature will increase the the number of ‘cold days’ and ‘cold nights’ has decreased frequency and intensity of extreme events. The duration of (by 3.3% and 5.1% respectively over the same period) 15. long-lasting heat waves is expected to increase by 22 days by 2100, potentially causing more severe droughts. At the same The north of the country has repeatedly experienced time, intensity of heavy rains is expected to increase (+4% by incidences of droughts and floods16. The 2007 floods in 2100) and the proportion of total annual rainfall that falls in the northern part of the country, immediately following a such heavy rain events will also increase24. This combination period of drought, affected more than 325,000 people17. may intensify seasonal and inter-annual variation – with | 4 | In 2015, days of torrential rain around Accra resulted in drought in one year and floods in the next25, or even droughts widespread flooding and left 159 dead18. and floods within the same season26. Another projected effect of climate change is a rising sea level. Ghana’s coastal Climate change. Projections for climate change show large regions, including its largest city, Accra, are expected to face uncertainty concerning the change in rainfall. For the a sea level rise of 13-45 cm in 100 years27and are especially future, precipitation estimates range between predicting a vulnerable to flooding and waterborne disease 28. -3% to +7% change in precipitation. For total annual precipitation, projections for the year 2100 vary from -15% to These changes are likely to affect Ghana’s water availability +16% compared to current annual rainfall although a and food security, especially in the north of the country, national decrease of 4% by 2040 is a commonly cited where the mono-modal rainfall pattern results in a long projection19.