Building climate resilience of the sector in through improved climate information and early warning services

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Ghana UNEP

29 May 2019

Building climate resilience of the agriculture sector in Ghana through Project/Programme Title: improved climate information and early warning services.

Country(ies): The Republic of Ghana

National Designated Mr. Frimpong Kwateng-Amaning, Director of the Real Sector, Authority(ies) (NDA): Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Ghana

Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Sanitation and Executing Entities: Water Resources (MoSWR) and UNEP-DHI Centre on Water and Environment

Accredited Entity(ies) (AE): UN Environment Programme

Date of first submission/ [YYYY-MM-DD] [V.0] version number:

Date of current submission/ [YYYY-MM-DD] [V.0] version number

Please submit the completed form to [email protected], using the following name convention in the subject line and file name: “CN-[Accredited Entity or Country]-YYYYMMDD”

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A. Project / Programme Information (max. 1 page) ☒ Project A.2. Public or private ☒ Public sector A.1. Project or programme ☐ Programme sector ☐ Private sector

Mitigation: Reduced emissions from:

☐ access and power generation

☐ Low emission transport

☐ Buildings, cities and industries and appliances A.3. Indicate the result ☐ Forestry and land use areas for the Adaptation: Increased resilience of: project/programme ☒ Most vulnerable people and communities

☒ Health and well-being, and food and water security

☐ Infrastructure and built environment

☐ Ecosystem and ecosystem services Direct beneficiaries: 2,700,000 people or 9% of the population A.5. Estimated (crop farmers). A.4. Estimated mitigation adaptation impact Indirect beneficiaries: impact (tCO2eq over (number of direct 14,700,000 people lifespan) beneficiaries and % of (crop farming population) households). Calculation is provided in Annex 11. A.7. Indicative GCF A.6. Indicative total project Amount: USD11,000,000 Amount: USD funding requested (max cost (GCF + co-finance) 10,000,000 10M) A.8. Mark the type of financial instrument ☒ Grant ☐ Loan ☐ Guarantee Other: specify______requested for the GCF funding a) 4 years A.9. Estimated duration of A.10. Estimated project/ 10 years project/ programme: b) repayment period, if Programme lifespan applicable: A.11. Is funding from the A.12. Confirm overall Yes ☐ No ☒ Project Preparation ESS category is ☒ C or I-3 Facility needed? minimum to no risk1 Project activities are designed to build resilience of the agricultural sector and vulnerable communities to by: i) Putting in place a national framework for clearly defining responsibilities for long term planning and proactive measures to combat future drought events in Ghana, and coordinating national, regional 2 and local drought management in the agricultural sector; ii) Transforming the technical capacity of A.13. Provide rational for policymakers, technical officers and identified responsible organisations for proactive the ESS categorization drought management and response through better observation, modelling and prediction (100 words) tools; iii) Building resilience of vulnerable farming communities to the impacts of climate change and drought hazards by disseminating the decision-support (DSS) services across multiple levels – from national to local. Consequently, the project will pose little to no environmental or social risk, as evident in the GCF ESS screening checklist (Annex 1). Furthermore, the project does not trigger any of the exclusion criteria stipulated in the GCF SAP guidelines. A.14. Has the CN been ☐ Confidential Yes ☒ No ☐ A.15. Confidentiality3 shared with the NDA? ☒ Not confidential A.16. Project/Programme Agricultural production in Ghana is threatened by multiple impacts of climate change, rationale, objectives and including rising temperatures, increasing frequency and intensity of droughts, occasional

1 Refer to the SAP ESS Guidelines 2 ‘Regional’ in this concept note and annexes refers to a sub-national level 3 Concept notes (or sections of) not marked as confidential may be published in accordance with the Information Disclosure Policy (Decision B.12/35) and the Review of the Initial Proposal Approval Process (Decision B.17/18).

Simplified Approval Process CONCEPT NOTE Template V.1.1 GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 2 OF 4 approach of flash floods, and changing seasonal patterns. Baseline assessments show that the programme/project (max current capacity for proactive management, planning and response to climate-related 100 words) hazards, especially droughts, is very low. The proposed project will build on GCF readiness programme activities to elicit a paradigm shift in Ghana’s national and local approach to drought hazard management in the agricultural sector from that of reactive to proactive, building resilience to climate change and increasing food security especially in vulnerable communities. This will be achieved by focusing on building the institutional and technical capacities for planning, early warning and response to climate-related drought hazards in the agricultural sector at a national and local level through: i) Creating the necessary national institutional, policy and planning frameworks for coordinated planning and response; ii) Transforming the technical capacity for observation, modelling and prediction of drought impacts on agriculture; iii) Building the local capacity to use new climate information and decision support services for improved resilience of farmers and increased food security in vulnerable communities. The project will focus on drought in the agricultural sector which has the greatest need for a proactive approach, and will also include the capacity for future application to other sectors and climate-related hazards such as flooding. The project will be executed by the Water Resources Commission and the UNEP-DHI Collaboration Centre. Any environmental and social risks will be managed by the Ministry of Sanitation and Water Resources. B. Project / Programme details (max. 3 pages) B.1. Context and Baseline (max. 1 page) Country context and climate vulnerabilities: Rural Ghanaian communities are highly reliant on favourable climate conditions and climate-sensitive livelihoods. More than 80% of disasters in Ghana are considered to be climate-related4. Smallholder farmers are amongst the poorest groups of the society4, yet account for 80% of domestic agricultural production5. Most farmers have a low adaptive capacity, making them vulnerable to current and future climate change impacts. Despite the rapid development and growth in the industry and service sectors in recent years, agriculture remains a significant contributor to the Ghanaian economy, and accounted for ~18% of GDP in 20176. The agriculture sector – employing ~36% of the active labour force7 and contributing to the livelihoods of ~70% of the total population8 – is also considered a potential ‘engine of growth and jobs creation’ for a diversified Ghanaian economy9. However, climate change poses serious threats to the sector in the future, impacting water resources, agricultural productivity and food security, and threatening the livelihoods of rural communities.

The Ghanaian climate has changed considerably in recent decades, a trend expected to continue over the next century. Average annual temperatures have increased by ~1 C̊ since the 1950s10, and while there has been little change in mean annual rainfall, increasing rainfall variability has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of flood and drought events in recent history. Since the 1950s West Africa has experienced trends towards more intense and longer droughts11. Historic records over floods and droughts between 1968 – 2017 shows 18 major events with an average of 540,000 people affected annually, and Drought Disaster Statistics show that in 1983 severe drought affected 12.5 million people in Ghana12. Farmers are extremely vulnerable to droughts, as nearly all farming depends on rainfed agriculture. Less than 1% of cultivated land is under irrigation in Ghana13. Climate impacts are particularly damaging to vulnerable groups, including women that produce 70% of country’s subsistence crops and account for 52% of labour force4.

Future climate projections suggest that such extreme events will become more frequent and intense in the coming decades, with dry season rainfall decreasing, the dry season lengthening and wet season rainfall intensifying. Temperatures in Africa are projected to rise faster than the global average increase during the 21st century. Under current IPCC future scenarios14, temperature projections over West Africa for the end of the 21st century from both the CMIP3 GCMs (SRES A2 and A1B scenarios) and CMIP5 GCMs (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) range between 3°C and 6°C above the late 20th century baseline, and regional downscaling produces a

4 https://www.ifad.org/web/operations/country/id/ghana 5 National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), 2013 6 CIA World Factbook. 2018. Available at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gh.html 7 Ghana Statistical Services. 2017. Labour Force Report. 8 ISSER. 2017. Policy Brief 5 - Post-Budget Analysis: Sowing the seeds for Growth and Jobs. 9 World Bank. 2018. Third Ghana Economic Update: agriculture as an engine of growth and jobs creation. Washington D.C. 10 Data are from: http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm. 11 IPCC, 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Chapter 3 12 EM-DAT: The Emergency Events Database - Universite catholique de Louvain (UCL) - CRED, D. Guha-Sapir - www.emdat.be, Brussels, Belgium 13 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCCAS), 2012 14 IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Chapter 22: Africa.

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similar range of projected change. In Ghana, temperatures are projected to increase by a further ~2.8 C̊ and ~4.5 C̊ by 2055 and 2085, respectively15. Frequency of hot days and nights is expected to increase by 18-59% by 2060, with overall rainfall expected to decrease by 4.5% by 204016. The increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of droughts will likely lead to a continued decline in agricultural productivity, with considerable impacts on food security. For example, maize yields – a staple crop in Ghana, accounting for over 50% of cereal production – are expected to decrease by up to 7% by 202017. Cocoa, the second largest cash crop and key source of income to 800,000 smallholder families, is highly climate sensitive and thus expected to fall in production between 2020 and 2080 due to changing climate18. Cassava yields are expected to fall by 30% by 208015. This will exacerbate the problem of already low agricultural productivity in the country, with average yields of important crops such as maize, cassava and yam at approximately 28%, 28% and 31%, respectively, of potentially achievable levels19. It is expected that the Northern province will experience total crop failure every five years due to lack of rainfall15. Ghana is expected to become water stressed by 20254, Ghana needs to adapt to the increasingly water-stressed nature of the agricultural sector by implementing a proactive national and local approach to water management related to climate change. A proactive approach is a cross-cutting exercise, requiring input from experts in a variety of fields, including hydrometeorological, agricultural, livestock, water resources and socio-economic services, providing timely climate data and decision-support tools to respond to changing conditions at a national and local level. However, recent reports have identified limitations in Ghana’s existing institutional and technical capacity to manage the farmer response to drought proactively and barriers to building resilience of the agricultural sector to climate change impacts, especially drought.

Ghana’s existing capacity limitations and barriers to building resilience: The historical approach to agricultural development in Ghana has focused on increasing productivity, with limited attention to the potential impacts of climate change. Limitations of Ghana’s current capacity for drought management include the following: 1) A recent review of existing national human and institutional capacities for dealing with climate change impacts related to water, indicate that institutional capacity of flood and drought information dissemination and forecasting within responsible organisations is low to very low (score of 3 out of 10)20. 2) An analysis of currently existing drought early warning systems shows that majority have limited coverage and limited channels for information transfer and dissemination21. 3) In addition, the institutional setting for drought risk management is not well defined. NADMO (National Disaster Management Organisation) was established to coordinate relief services in the event of disasters, including drought. Responsibility for water-related planning lies within the Ministry of Water and Agriculture and the Water Resources Commission. However, the main focus is on water and hydrology and not on drought as a specific topic or responsibility. Thus, the responsibility for the long-term planning and proactive measures to combat future drought events are not clearly defined in Ghana, and transformation in the country’s approach to water management related to climate change, especially drought, is urgently needed.

A gap analysis22 of drought risk management and early warning in Ghana, a Capacity Needs Assessment23 of the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) and the UN Environment CLIMWARN project case study work in Ghana carried out in 2014-201524 revealed several barriers to building the resilience of the agricultural sector to the impacts of climate change through climate information and early warning. These include limited: 4) institutional and technical capacity in GMet to produce reliable observation and forecasting data for drought risk assessment and early warning systems; 5) accessibility of actionable warning information to communities and vulnerable groups; 6) use of real-time satellite information for science-based drought forecasting; 7) capacity within government institutions for the collection, analysis and transfer of climate information and adaptation technologies to inform drought risk management and dry season planning; 8) collaboration between research institutions for the enhancement of climate information services; 9) capacity of smallholder farmers to prepare for and adapt to emerging drought situations, including access to climate-resilient agricultural technologies and updated climate information;

15 Platts PJ, Omeny PA, Marchant R. 2015. AFRICLIM: High-resolution climate projections for ecological applications in Africa. African Journal of Ecology 53, 103-108. 16 USAID Climate Change Risk Profile for Ghana, 2017 17 Climate Change Vulnerability Adaptation Assessment of the Agriculture Sector. 2000. 18 National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), 2013 19 MoFA, SRID. 2011. : Facts and Figures 2010. 20 Ghana’s Third National Communication, (2015); EPA, Ghana 21 James Aggrey (Water Resources Commission), Testing and Validation Report for Drought Early Warning and Forecasting Portal in Ghana, 2018 22 UNDP. 2011. Mainstreaming Drought Risk Management – A primer. 23 See Annex 7: CTCN. 2016. Ghana Meteorological Agency Needs Assessment Report. 24 UN Environment 2017. CLIMWARN Project. Available at: https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/video/un-environment- climwarn-project

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10) awareness of best practices for drought management and climate change adaptation; and 11) definition of roles and coordination between technical institutions involved in the monitoring process at both the national and local levels. There is a need, particularly for the early warning activities, to promote a development of modern information management systems for data collection, processing and dissemination of information, and to encourage evidence- based decision-making25. As also confirmed by a recent Climate Technology Center and Network (CTCN) feasibility assessment, the technical capacity related to weather forecasting, numerical modelling, and data and information management needs to be strengthened and improved, including knowledge and skills of drought risk reduction for community members and farmers within drought prone areas.

The project will provide solutions for these key institutional and technological limitations and barriers to elicit a much needed paradigm shift in Ghana’s approach to drought management in the agriculture sector from that of reactive to proactive, both at a national and local level. This will build resilience to the projected increase in climate-related drought hazards, especially in vulnerable communities, by enabling farmers to take proactive measures to minimise crop losses and make the most of environmental conditions to increase food security and agricultural productivity.

Pilot project: At the request of the Water Resources Commission (WRC), the CTCN provided technical assistance for the development of a Drought Early Warning and Forecasting system for the Upper East region of Ghana in 201626. This pilot project successfully facilitated transfer and capacity building for climate change adaption focusing on dry season management and planning in northern Ghana. This was done through stakeholder engagement, developing and implementing a drought early warning system and capacity building training events. The GCF Readiness programme further investigated the potential for the scaling up of the project to the national level. This included a baseline assessment and gap analysis of drought management and forecasting in Ghana, as well as a climate vulnerability assessment of the agricultural sector. The lessons learnt report from this pilot project, including the CTCN and GCF readiness activities, highlights the potential impact of climate change in Ghana and recommends that CTCN and GCF activities are followed by a full size project where the developed solutions are up-scaled to national level. The lessons learned report also details extensive stakeholder engagement (see also Section C.4), recommendations on the drought early warning system and outcomes from consultation with national experts. The key lessons learned and recommendations are summarised below: A) Drought is a serious issue in northern Ghana, and experience from stakeholders is that even southern Ghana is experiencing drought impacts affecting food security and cropping patterns, and this is expected to increase in the future B) Availability of hydromet data is one of the key constraints for drought management in Ghana, and this could be mitigated through upgrading the existing hydromet network combined with an increased use and knowledge of satellite-based data within drought management C) Maintain the focus on web-based solutions because it makes it easier to disseminate information and provide access to new users, and the infrastructure required with respect to mobile data in Ghana is growing very rapidly. Feedback on the use of a web-based platform was positive. D) Access to near real time satellite-based data and indices provides great value, and there is a need for further extending the local knowledge of satellite data and performing additional validation and ground proofing for its use in drought management in Ghana E) Dissemination of drought information from national to local level is a key requirement which the current CTCN and GCF activities have not completely achieved. Prioritise the focus on the linkage between national level planning and local level implementation F) Active engagement and involvement of key national agencies is very important in implementation of the drought Early Warning System (EWS). Involve key agencies in the design through focus on actual cases at the different agencies to identify the required functionality beyond what was possible in the current CTCN and GCF activities G) Capacity building and training is vital for successful implementation of the drought EWS and these activities should be increased and include not only the technical staff but also management level staff to ensure buy in and long-term sustainability of the system

This project will therefore develop the pilot project solutions to include these lessons learned and stakeholder engagement recommendations, and upscale the pilot project to a national level as recommended.

Alignment with national priorities and policies: The (GoG) recognises the current and future threats of climate change and has prioritised adaptation and disaster risk reduction in the country’s national development strategies, especially those relating to the agriculture sector. The proposed project activities are aligned with national priorities, strategies and action plans, including: i) the Ghana National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCCAS,

25 See more in Annex 5: CTCN and GCF assistance in Ghana on Improving Resiliency of Crops to drought through Strengthened Early Warning within Ghana: Lessons Learned Report 26 See Annex 5.

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2012)27; ii) the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP, 2015–2020)28; iii) Ghana’s INDC29; and iv) the Ghana Technology Needs Assessment (TNA). Additionally, the proposed project will support the Ghana Plan of Action for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA)30 to strengthen the country’s efforts to implement the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA). In particular, project activities will contribute to: i) HFA Priority Action 1: “Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation”; ii) HFA Priority Action 3: “Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels”; and iii) HFA Priority Action 5: “Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels”. Activities have also been designed to be complementary with other GCF proposals for Ghana currently in the pipeline, including UNEP’s project on Climate- resilient landscapes for sustainable livelihoods in Northern Ghana (see Annex 10). Likewise, proposed activities will seek to support other related efforts such as ClimDev-Africa and will build and expand on the priority adaptation activities identified in the GCF-endorsed Ghana NAP (especially relating to developing better capacity for early warning, including information processing and dissemination). Furthermore, NADMO is currently reviewing the approach to disaster risk reduction, which will seek to embrace proactive risk management – an approach missing in the current practice and which is enabled by this project.

The proposed project will build on several existing programmes and projects in Ghana and address identified gaps and potential synergies. A summary of the main findings based on existing reports, publication, and meetings with stakeholders is presented in Annex 10. The proposed project will learn from, incorporate and coordinate with projects that have potential synergies, as indicated in the actions in Annex 10, and in addition the proposed project adds value by: • Focusing on drought hazard management at a national and local level across Ghana, which is the climate hazard with the greatest need for a proactive management approach in Ghana • Building on a successful pilot project in the Upper East region in Ghana, following the recommendation to upscale to a full national level project • Building on the successful tools and services built for the Volta Basin as part of the Flood and Drought Management Tools Project • Establishing a national drought EWS for Ghana, that also co-ordinates and links with transboundary EWS’s for the Volta Basin • Providing a national web-based portal that gives easy access to near real time and freely available satellite data for both national organisations and local farmers • Implementing a DSS delivery platform (web-based and mobile enabled platform) focused on drought management in the agricultural sector, and also with the capability to expand to other sectors and climate hazards

B.2. Project / Programme description (max. 1 page) The institutional analysis and needs assessment undertaken under the GCF readiness programme activities (see Annexes 6 and 7) have shown that currently there is an insufficient institutional and technical capacity in Ghana to respond to climate-related hazards in the agriculture sector, especially when it comes to drought early warning. The proposed project will build on the pilot project and GCF readiness programme activities31 to elicit a paradigm shift in Ghana’s approach to drought management in the agricultural sector from that of reactive to proactive at a national and local level, building resilience to climate change and increasing food security especially in vulnerable communities. This will be achieved by focusing on building the institutional and technical capacities for planning, early warning and response to drought hazards in the agricultural sector at both a national and local farming community level.

The proposed project components and their associated activities are briefly outlined below with reference to the key limitations/barriers that each output is providing a solution to, and key recommendations from the pilot study and stakeholder engagement that each output is addressing (Section B1). Component 1 and 2 focus on building the national and regional (sub-national) institutional and technical capacity for proactive drought management, including spatial variability and focus on supporting vulnerable communities. Component 3 focuses on building capacity of vulnerable farming communities to access, utilise and contribute to this early warning climate information to enable a proactive drought management approach at a local level (see Annex 4 for full project logframe).

Component 1: Institutional, policy and planning frameworks for managing drought hazards in the agricultural sector. Activities under this Component will clearly define the responsibility for long term planning and proactive

27 UN Environment and UNDP. 2012. National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. CC DARE 28 Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology (MEST), Republic of Ghana. 2014. Ghana National Climate Change Policy. 29 Government of Ghana. 2015. Ghana’s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) UNFCCC. 30 National Disaster Management Organisation 2010 31 The technical assistance funded by GCF readiness funds and CTCN focused on improving resiliency of crops to drought through strengthened early warning systems within Ghana. Annex 5 includes project findings and recommendations.

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measures at both national and local levels to combat future drought events in Ghana, and will build the capacity of national institutions, government representatives and relevant regional branches to work together to understand, plan and respond to drought hazards in a coordinated manner. Specific focus will be on promoting a proactive approach to disaster risk reduction and management within the NADMO and the WRC. Key outputs and activities under this component are outlined below. Output 1.1: (Solution to 3 and 11, Recommendation F) National action plan for coordinating drought hazard management in the agricultural sector created and implemented, through: Act. 1.1.1 Production of an action plan for integration of climate information into policy and decision-making processes at national, regional and local level; Act. 1.1.2 Implementation of the action plan to co-ordinate drought management and clearly define roles and responsibilities Output 1.2 (Solution to 8 and 11, Recommendation F) National coordination mechanism for management of all climate- related hazards developed, through: Act. 1.2.1 Review and recommendations for strengthening the existing institutional capacity and strategic framework for climate-related hazards; Act. 1.2.2 Development of a national coordination mechanism for managing and responding to climate-related hazards with focus on drought management. Output 1.3 (Solution to 10) Training programme on drought hazards in agricultural sector developed and implemented, through: Act. 1.3.1 Providing training on drought hazard management to key national ministries and organisations; Act. 1.3.2 Providing training on drought hazard management to regional branches within the agricultural sector.

Component 2: Observation, modelling and prediction of climate-related hazards in agriculture. This Component will focus on transforming the technical capacity of hydrometeorological service delivery systems to provide the information required to elicit a shift to proactive drought management in Ghana, including a new data information and management system providing easy access to new and improved quality data for planning, early warning and response to drought hazards. Both, a web-based service delivery platform32 and associated training programme will be designed and implemented for the dissemination of climate information to national and local government agencies scaling up from the pilot project. Activities and outputs will include: Output 2.1 (Solution to 4 and 6, Recommendation B) New data information and management system implemented as a web-based data portal, providing easy access to enhanced existing data sources and new datasets, through: Act. 2.1.1 Producing recommendations for improved use of existing hydromet information and for use of new innovative and cost-efficient data sources (such as satellite-based information); Act. 2.1.2 Enabling easy access to relevant and automatically updated satellite-based near-real time information through implementing a new data information and management system as a web-based data portal; Act. 2.1.3 Implementation of methods for merging the existing hydromet information with satellite-based data sources for improved data accuracy, and data made available through the new data information and management system; Act. 2.1.4 Implementing methods for downscaling and correcting the existing climate forecast products to produce a new seasonal forecast with Ghana with data available through the new data information and management system. Output 2.2 (Solution to 1 and 2, Recommendation C, F and D) Decision-support services for climate-related hazard management focused on improved drought planning, developed and implemented, through: Act. 2.2.1 Development and implementation of a web-based service delivery and decision-support (DSS) platform including a crop growth model; Act. 2.2.2 Upgrading and implementation of national water resource allocation model(s); Act. 2.2.3 Implementation of risk knowledge services within the DSS platform, including mapping of existing hazards; Act. 2.2.4 Implementation of hazard monitoring and early warning services within the DSS platform; Act. 2.2.5 Validation and ground truthing of the DSS platform services within identified priority areas and sectors in vulnerable communities. Output 2.3 (Solution to 7, Recommendation G) Key technical staff capacitated to use the DSS platform and outreach for potential regional and local users, through: Act. 2.3.1 Production of documentation, technical user guides and training materials for the developed services; Act. 2.3.2 Training workshops on the use of the developed platform with key government organisations at national and local level for both technical staff and management level staff; Act. 2.3.3 Dissemination of outreach products to other potential regional and local users. This component will also build on the CLIMWARN project’s needs analysis for early warning systems among communities in Ghana33 to facilitate the dissemination and uptake of early warnings at the local community level (see Component 3).

32 The platform will be a multidisciplinary, multipurpose decision support system (DSS) enabling the dissemination of information and relevant technical tools related to climate change adaptation within the agriculture and water sector in Ghana. 33 UN Environment 2017. CLIMWARN Project. Available at: https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/video/un-environment- climwarn-project

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Component 3: Climate change resilience and capacity of farming communities to use climate information- based planning in agriculture. Component 3 will create linkages between the national level planning and decision- support services and the implementation of climate-resilient agricultural practices at the local level. The focus will be on enabling local institutions and farmers to shift from the current paradigm of reactive planning (disaster response) to proactive planning practices with the help of available early warning information and decision support tools for climate hazards and droughts. Activities and outputs of Component 3 are outlined below. Output 3.1 (Solution to 10, and Recommendation E) Enhanced knowledge of local communities on climate-related hazards in agriculture, through: Act. 3.1.1 Adapt and supplement existing training materials on climate-related hazard management to target capacity building in local communities Act. 3.1.2 Training of extension officers and staff on climate-related hazard management in farming practices; Act. 3.1.3 Training of farmers on climate-resilient farming practices and drought resistant crops. Output 3.2 (Solution to 5 and 9 and Recommendation C, D and E) Increased response capability of farming communities to climate change and drought hazards, through: Act. 3.2.1 Training local community members and farmers on the use of the available DSS tools and services; Act. 3.2.4 Implementation of a mobile-based crowd sourcing application for early warning within national DSS. Output 3.3 (Solution to 5) Lessons learned and user feedback collected from local stakeholders and government institutions, through: Act. 3.3.1 Collecting feedback from government and local communities, including technical service user experiences; Act. 3.3.2 Undertaking awareness raising campaigns for other vulnerable communities.

Potential for future scaling up: While the proposed project is primarily focused on the impacts of drought in the agricultural sector, the activities are designed to be replicable across all climate-related hazards (such as flooding) and across multiple economic sectors as the climate information will be useful for economic activities outside the agricultural sector alone. This allows for the impact to be expanded beyond the direct scope of the project. Specifically, there is significant potential for the upscaling of interventions through a larger, multi-hazard and multisectoral approach at the national level.

Implementation arrangements: By request of the Government of Ghana, UN Environment will serve as the accredited entity for the project. As per its GCF Entity Work Programme, UN Environment offers 20+ years of experience working on climate change. Based on its science-based mandate, one of UN Environment’s seven sub-programmes is entirely dedicated to keeping the world environment under review. Through its Science Division, UN Environment has longstanding expertise in environmental and climate change information management and early warning. For example, with Global Environment Facility (GEF) and European Commission (EC) funding it is currently supporting over 50 countries in establishing or strengthening their environmental information management systems and using them amongst others for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and MEA reporting. UN Environment has developed innovative solutions for national governments and local communities to adapt to the current and predicted effects of climate change, including community-based and natural resource management projects, and will draw upon this experience during the implementation of the project. The proposed project aligns with its priority areas of work – building resilience to climate change and reducing impacts from disasters – under UN Environment Medium Term Strategy 2018-2021, as well as POW, Sub-programme 2 on resilience to disasters and conflicts. GMet will be a key national stakeholder and will play an important role during the project implementation due to their technical expertise with respect to climate variability, climate change, seasonal forecast and drought assessment. The technical competences at GMet will be used to anchor the technical outputs within Ghana. The executing agencies will collaborate closely with GMet during the project implementation.

Executing entities: The executing entities will be the WRC in collaboration with the UNEP-DHI collaboration centre. WRC’s mandate is to regulate and manage water resources for all uses, as well as to coordinate relevant government policies, including collection and dissemination of water resources data and information and development of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) plans, and flood and drought management34. WRC have an extensive network among government and non-government organisations within the water and agriculture sector and given the strong project focus on institutional frameworks and planning across varying jurisdictions, their involvement will be vital for execution across all components of the proposed project. The NADMO is responsible for the coordination, management, dissemination and planning when an event turns into an emergency (a reactive response), and the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MOFA) is the main organisation disseminating drought related information in Ghana. However, for water related planning the responsibility lies with the WRC which is therefore considered most appropriate as an EE. WRC successfully implemented the pilot study and have the institutional and technical staff capacity to operate across Ghana and implement the project. The NADMO and MOFA are key stakeholders who have been (and will continue to be) actively involved through stakeholder engagement, and the responsibilities of WRC, NADMO and MOFA will be defined in the action plan to coordinate the national, regional and local management and response to drought hazards in the agricultural sector. UNEP-DHI is a UN Environment collaborating centre hosted by DHI, a private not-for-profit advisory organization

34 See Annex 6 on Baseline survey on the institutional and technical state of drought Management in Ghana.

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with extensive expertise on solutions to water challenges, and several decades of experience in development of water resources modelling and DSS solutions, including expertise on earth observation (satellite) data use for water management. The possibility of collaboration with FAO, WFP will be explored during the Funding Proposal formulation.

Risks: Several potential risks have been identified to date and are listed below. Risk Category Mitigation Governance and organisational Operational Establishment of an active and engaged project steering committee that will structure within Ghana be able to advise and direct the project with respect to issues directed towards the national governance structure. Political risks affecting key Operational Strong stakeholder involvement at various levels of governance across government agencies involved governmental and non-governmental organizations, ensuring understanding of project benefits and incentive for project continuation. Funds are not correctly managed Financial The established Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) procedure and financial or transparently accounted for reporting mechanism, including an annual audit by an independent auditor, will identify any shortcomings in the financial management of the project. Internal controls will be put in place for the project and project fund management. Potential conflict between Operational A stakeholder analysis based on extensive stakeholder consultations will be stakeholders conducted in the initial phase of the project to identify and address potential conflicts between stakeholders involved in the project (i.e. creating understanding of the respective needs and challenges of both local stakeholders and national institutional players). Socio-economic factors Operational The project has been identified as low risk and will ensure that the diversity of the different cultures and languages will be considered in all project activities.

B.3. Expected project results aligned with the GCF investment criteria (max. 1 page) Impact Potential: The proposed project will contribute to two fund level impacts in the GCF Results Management Framework, namely increased resilience of: i) most vulnerable people and communities; and ii) health and well-being, and food and water security. This impact will be primarily focused on the agricultural sector as a whole, as well as smallholder farmers that represent one of the vulnerable groups in society, who will benefit from improved awareness and tools to plan for and manage climate-related hazards. It is estimated that the project will directly benefit ~3 million people, representing ~10% of the total population35. A further ~14.7 million will indirectly benefit from the project through increased food production and improved water management36. The most vulnerable populations, namely women, youth and indigenous peoples, as well as smallholder farmers will be prioritised through targeted training and information transfer systems (the focus of Component 3). In addition, gender relevant indicators are used to express the drought risk towards vulnerable groups in Ghana as part of the proposed project drought Early Warning system, for example ‘Child underweight’ and ‘Drought mortality risk’. Risk analysis will identify areas or groups at different risk levels which will be the targets for the following adaptation or mitigation, therefore taking into account specific spatial vulnerabilities and gender considerations.

Paradigm Shift: The proposed project will catalyse a paradigm shift in Ghana’s national and local approach to agricultural planning and management related to climate change by building the institutional and technical capacity within Ghana to provide impact-based forecasts and drought hazard early warnings to the most vulnerable communities. The project will include the development of a national action plan for the integration of climate information into policy- and decision- making processes, resulting in a shift in the country’s disaster-risk management and policy framework from a reactive to a proactive approach. The project will also establish a coordination mechanism for efficient and effective early warning response to drought, which is currently lacking, and training activities will be directed toward permanently employed staff of government institutions and agencies to ensure that the increased capacity is retained within the institutions in the long-term. A new data and information management system, combined with an enhanced service delivery platform for hydrometeorological services, will facilitate the cross-sectoral integration of up-to-date climate information and drought early warnings enabling proactive as opposed to reactive management. This includes the introduction of innovative modelling approaches (based on remote sensing data) and service delivery platforms (with additional information on early warning sourced from farmers). This transformation in the national and regional institutional and technical capacity for proactive drought management will support and enable proactive drought management at a local level in vulnerable communities. This project will elicit a local level shift to a proactive drought management approach by training local farmers and vulnerable communities to access and utilize the new climate information, and by implementing a mobile- based crowd sourcing application supporting the use of national DSS services on a local level. Farmers will also be able to be more actively involved in planning processes by uploading information to the systems via mobile application. New proactive measures that farmers will be able to take as a direct result of the project include timing crop planting for optimum yields, planting the most appropriate drought resistant crops, and relocating to more suitable sites in order to minimise losses and make the most of environmental conditions. This project will therefore transform the drought

35 Direct beneficiaries are crop farmers, see Annex 11. 36 Indirect beneficiaries are crop farming households, see Annex 11.

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management capacity of local farmers by eliciting a shift to a proactive approach at a national and local level, building urgently needed resilience to climate change and increasing food security in vulnerable communities.

Sustainable Development: The proposed project will contribute to three Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), namely: i) SDG 2 – Zero Hunger; ii) SDG 6 – Clean Water and Sanitation; and iii) SDG 13 – Climate Action. The expected positive environmental, economic and social co-benefits of the project are outlined in the table below.

Environmental co-benefits Economic co-benefits Social co-benefits The proposed project will improve the The agricultural production in Ghana will The proposed project will benefit the efficiency of the agricultural sector in be enhanced, which will lead to poorest and most vulnerable people, in Ghana by reducing crop losses. This will increased income generation and growth particular farming communities in areas reduce the ecological impact of of the agro-based rural economy. affected by climate change. By expanding agricultural practices to increasing the climate resilience of the compensate for reduced productivity, agricultural sector, the project will create thereby reducing land degradation. jobs and secure the livelihoods of farming communities.

Needs of the recipient: The Ghana Technology Needs Assessment Report (TNA)37 identified the water and agricultural sectors as the primary focal areas for climate change adaptation technology support. For both sectors, technology support for integrated climate monitoring and early warning systems was identified as the number one priority for climate change adaptation. To meet these needs, project interventions have been designed based on the results of a gap analysis of climate-risk management and early warnings in Ghana38 and a Needs Assessment Report for GMet 39. Given that the absolute majority of farming is undertaken by smallholder farmers, it is particularly important that relevant climate hazard information is made available to them through reliable and free channels as the ability to pay for such information of the smallholder farmers is very low or non-existent. The project will therefore focus on building on existing institutional and information systems and drawing from freely available remote sensing data sources for providing low cost and accessible climate information to the farmers and relevant institutions.

Country ownership: The Government of Ghana (GoG) recognises the current and future threats of climate change and has prioritised adaptation in the country’s national development strategies, especially those relating to the agriculture sector. The proposed project’s interventions align with: i) the Ghana National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy; ii) the National Climate Change Policy; iii) Ghana’s Technology Needs Assessment; iv) Ghana’s INDC; v) the National Water Policy; vi) Food and Agriculture Sector Development Policy; and vii) the National Irrigation Policy. The development of the project originated from GCF Readiness activities, including a pilot project in the Upper East Region of Ghana. The process has involved extensive consultations with the GoG, has been endorsed by the NDA (ref. Annex 9) and is fully country-driven.

Efficiency and effectiveness: The proposed project’s design is based on international best practices and includes the use of innovative technologies to maximise the effectiveness of forecasting and early warnings. The pilot project (2016 – 2018), executed by UNEP-DHI, included multiple workshops, consultations and meetings with beneficiaries to optimise the design and framework of the proposed project. Additionally, a detailed review of the current institutional and technical capacity, a gap analysis of the current institutional capacity and a climate vulnerability assessment of the agricultural sector were conducted by four national experts as part of the pilot project. The cost-effectiveness of the project is demonstrated through the reduction in production losses resulting from early warnings and advisories. Although the project benefits are of a public goods nature, there will be overall financial gains to vulnerable farmers who will benefit from improved crop production. The economic and financial viability of the project will be addressed further during the development of the Funding Proposal. C. Indicative financing / Cost information (max. 2 pages) C.1. Financing by components (max ½ page) Component Indicative GCF financing Co-financing cost Amount Financial Amount Financial Name of (USD) (USD) Instrument (USD) Instrument Institutions Component 1: Institutional, policy and 1,650,000 1,500,000 GCF grant 150,000 In-kind Ministry of planning frameworks for managing Environment, drought hazards in the agricultural Science sector Technology and Innovation

37 Essegby et al. 2012. Ghana Technology Needs Assessment Report. 38 UNDP. 2011. Mainstreaming Drought Risk Management – A primer. 39 Annex 7: CTCN. 2016. Ghana Meteorological Agency Needs Assessment Report.

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Component 2: Observation, modelling 7,960,000 7,335,000 GCF grant 625,000 In-kind UNEP-DHI and prediction of climate-related Ministry of drought hazards in agriculture agriculture Ministry of Water resources and sanitation Component 3: Climate change 950,000 750,000 GCF grant 200,000 In-kind Ministry of resilience and capacity of farming agriculture communities to use climate Ministry of information-based planning in Water agriculture resources and sanitation PM costs 440,000 415,000 GCF grant 25,000 In-kind UNEP-DHI Ministry of agriculture Ministry of Water resources and sanitation Indicative total cost (USD) 11,000,000 10,000,000 1,000,000

C.2. Justification of GCF involvement (max 1/2 page) Given the current economic situation in Ghana, the contribution of funds by the GCF is critical for the successful implementation of the proposed project. Without investment into climate change related interventions, the livelihoods of the population in Ghana that are reliant on the agricultural sector are at risk to the threats of climate change, as the smallholder farmers are unable to make the necessary investments to retrieve climate information services on their own. It is expected that impacts of climate change and climate vulnerability will affect a large part of the country in the coming years. The development of the agricultural sector in Ghana is already largely reliant on foreign funding, with ~65% of total public expenditure in support of food and agriculture funded by external sources including the World Bank, USAID and the European Union40. The need for external funding is compounded by the current state of the Ghanaian economy. Despite a period of rapid economic growth over the last two decades moving Ghana to a lower middle-income status, the country’s economy has seen a decline in growth over the past five years41. Increasing debt, high inflation and currency depreciation have contributed to the deterioration of the economy, leading to a current account deficit of -7.5%42 and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 73.9%43. Further challenges to Ghana’s economic outlook include inflated domestic financing costs, technical problems in the oil and gas sectors, energy problems related to state-owned enterprises and continued weak commodity prices44. These factors result in an unfavourable fiscal climate for the Ghanaian government to secure loan financing for large-scale investments into innovative climate change adaptation measures. C.3. Sustainability and replicability of the project (exit strategy) (max. 1/2 page) The proposed project incorporates several design features that will ensure the sustainability of activities following project termination. Firstly, the project is a nationally driven effort and is fully aligned with national strategies, policies and plans. It is expected that the government will contribute to the sustainability of the project activities through co-finance to maintain the technical infrastructure after project closure (maintenance costs are expected to be limited because the project uses globally existing and freely available data sources, and the details of this are to be confirmed in the project development phase with an Operation and Maintenance Plan). Secondly, project management will be mainstreamed into existing government structures at the national and regional levels and the training activities will contribute to strengthening the technical capacity of government staff to collect, analyse and disseminate climate information vertically across institutional structures. By introducing a focus on the integration of climate information into regulatory frameworks, the country will have the necessary structures to maintain and sustain the developed capacity and technical services beyond the completion of the funding period.

40 FAO. 2014. Analysis of Public Expenditure in Support of the Food and Agriculture Sector in Ghana, 2006-2012: A preliminary assessment. Technical notes series, MAFAP, by Ghins, L., Rome. 41 IMF Survey – 2016 – Ghana: The Bumpy Road to Economic Recovery. Available at: www.imf.org/. 42 World Bank – 2015 – Current account balance (% of GDP). Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/. 43 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ghana/government-debt-to-gdp 44 World Bank – 2017 – Ghana Country Overview. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ghana/overview.

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The potential for replicating structural elements of the proposed project within the water and agricultural sectors and other administrative will be enhanced by: i) mainstreaming the project activities into government institutions such as the Water Resources Commission, Meteorological Agency and Ministry of Agriculture; ii) strengthening the technical capacity of government staff to collect, analyse and disseminate climate information vertically across institutional structures, potentially expanding project activities to specific locations/regions/communities in future; and iii) creating linkages for the transfer of information between national and local level decision makers. The mainstreaming of project interventions and the strengthening of institutional capacity will create an enabling environment for the country to successfully replicate the proposed project activities after the investment period. C.4 Stakeholders engagement in the project or programme (max ½ page) Extensive stakeholder consultations have been conducted as part of the pilot project and throughout the design period of the proposed project. As part of the GCF Readiness activities, three national workshops were organised by the Ministry of Finance of Ghana (NDA) and the Water Resources Commission (Executing Entity), with the technical assistance of UNEP-DHI, to engage with relevant stakeholders and agree on the needs for up-scaling the GCF readiness activities. These workshops – held in Accra in October 2017, January 2018 and April 2018 – allowed for the presentation and review of the final outcomes of the pilot project including GCF Readiness activities. This ensured that knowledge of the outcomes of the GCF Readiness activities was adequately disseminated across the relevant national organisations, fostering national support for the next steps in the application process. Based on this information, agreements were made between stakeholders on what the focus of the proposed project would be, as well as to assign UN Environment as the accredited entity. Details of the workshops (including participating institutions and key outcomes) can be found in Chapter 2 of Annex 5, and the key stakeholder recommendations have been integrated into this proposal (see Section B.1 Pilot project).

Further stakeholder consultations are planned during the development of the Funding Proposal. These consultations will be conducted using a cross-sectoral approach, involving stakeholders from government institutions, the private sector and community-based organisations. A stakeholder engagement plan will be produced to ensure the continuing participation of stakeholders throughout the duration of activities. C.5 Monitoring and Evaluation and reporting plans (max ¼ page) A comprehensive monitoring and evaluation (M&E) plan will be designed for the proposed project, with specific focus on adaptive management of interventions. This will ensure the long-term sustainability of project interventions and promote replicability. The Project Results Framework, to be developed during the development of the Funding Proposal, will include SMART indicators for each expected outcome, as well as mid-term and end-of-project targets. These indicators along with the relevant deliverables and benchmarks will be used to assess project implementation progress and whether project results are being achieved. The M&E plan will be reviewed and revised as necessary during the project inception workshop – including the refinement of indicators and their means of verification – to ensure project stakeholders understand their roles and responsibilities in terms of M&E. The project will establish a Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) that will independently monitor and react to any issues or complaints raised by stakeholders and beneficiaries (including vulnerable communities) of the project.

The project management unit (PMU) will be responsible for overseeing the day-to-day monitoring, although other project partners will have responsibilities to collect specific information related to the tracking of indicators. It is the responsibility of the PMU to inform UN Environment of any delays or difficulties faced during implementation so that the appropriate support or corrective measures can be adopted in a timely fashion. The Project Steering Committee (PSC) will receive periodic progress reports and will make recommendations to UN Environment concerning the need to revise any aspects of the Results Framework or the M&E plan. D. Annexes ☒ ESS screening check list (Annex 1) ☒ Map indicating the location of the project/programme (Annex 2) ☐ Evaluation Report of previous project (as applicable)

Additional Annexes: ☒ Climate vulnerability assessment of the agricultural sector in Ghana (Annex 3) ☒ Project logframe (Annex 4) ☒ CTCN and GCF assistance in Ghana on Improving Resiliency of Crops to drought through Strengthened Early Warning within Ghana: Lessons Learned Report (Annex 5) ☒ Baseline survey on the institutional and technical state of drought management in Ghana (Annex 6) ☒ CTCN and GCF assistance in Ghana on Improving Resiliency of Crops to drought through Strengthened Early Warning within Ghana: Needs Assessment (Annex 7) ☒ Theory of Change (Annex 8) ☒ NDA endorsement letter (Annex 9)

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☒ Linkages with ongoing or finalised projects within the region (Annex 10) ☒ Beneficiaries (Annex 11)

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Annex 1: Environmental and Social Screening Checklist

Part A: Risk Factors The questions describe the “risk factors” of activities that would require additional assessments and information. Any “Yes” response to the questions will render the proposal not eligible for the Simplified Approval Process Pilot Scheme. Proposals with any of the risk factors may be considered under the regular project approvals process instead. Exclusion criteria YES NO Will the activities involve associated facilities and require further ☐ ☒ due diligence of such associated facilities? Will the activities involve trans-boundary impacts including those ☐ ☒ that would require further due diligence and notification to downstream riparian states? Will the activities adversely affect working conditions and health ☐ ☒ and safety of workers or potentially employ vulnerable categories of workers including women, child labour? Will the activities potentially generate hazardous waste and ☐ ☒ pollutants including pesticides and contaminate lands that would require further studies on management, minimization and control and compliance to the country and applicable international environmental quality standards? Will the activities involve the construction, maintenance, and ☐ ☒ rehabilitation of critical infrastructure (like dams, water impoundments, coastal and river bank infrastructure) that would require further technical assessment and safety studies? Will the proposed activities potentially involve resettlement and ☐ ☒ dispossession, land acquisition, and economic displacement of persons and communities? Will the activities be located in protected areas and areas of ☐ ☒ ecological significance including critical habitats, key biodiversity areas and internationally recognized conservation sites? Will the activities affect indigenous peoples that would require ☐ ☒ further due diligence, free, prior and informed consent (FPIC) and documentation of development plans? Will the activities be located in areas that are considered to have ☐ ☒ archaeological (prehistoric), paleontological, historical, cultural, artistic, and religious values or contains features considered as critical cultural heritage?

Part B: Specific environmental and social risks and impacts Assessment and Management of Environmental YES NO TBD and Social Risks and Impacts Has the AE provided the E&S risk category of the ☒ ☐ ☐ project in the concept note? Has the AE provided the rationale for the ☒ ☐ ☐ categorization of the project in the relevant sections of the concept note or funding proposal? Are there any additional requirements for the ☐ ☒ ☐ country? Are the identification of risks and impacts based on ☒ ☐ ☐ recent or up-to-date information? Labour and Working Conditions YES NO TBD Are the proposed activities expected to have impacts ☐ ☒ ☐ on the working conditions, particularly the terms of employment, worker’s organization, non- discrimination, equal opportunity, child labour, and forced labour of direct, contracted and third-party workers?

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Will the proposed activities pose occupational health ☐ ☒ ☐ and safety risks to workers including supply chain workers? Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention YES NO TBD Are the activities expected to generate (1) emissions ☐ ☒ ☐ to air; (2) discharges to water; (3) activity-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emission; and (5) waste? Are the activities expected to utilize natural resources ☐ ☒ ☐ including water and energy? Will there be a need to develop detailed measures to ☐ ☒ ☐ reduce pollution and promote sustainable use of resources? Community Health, Safety, and Security YES NO TBD Will the activities potentially generate risks and ☐ ☒ ☐ impacts to the health and safety of the affected communities? Will there be a need for an emergency preparedness ☐ ☒ ☐ and response plan that also outlines how the affected communities will be assisted in times of emergency? Will there be risks posed by the security ☐ ☒ ☐ arrangements and potential conflicts at the project site to the workers and affected community? Land Acquisition and Involuntary Resettlement YES NO TBD Will the activities likely involve voluntary transactions ☐ ☒ ☐ under willing buyer-willing-seller conditions and have these been properly communicated and consulted? Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable YES NO TBD Management of Living Natural Resources Are the activities likely introduce invasive alien ☐ ☒ ☐ species of flora and fauna affecting the biodiversity of the area? Will the activities have potential impacts on or be ☐ ☒ ☐ dependent on ecosystem services including production of living natural resources? Indigenous Peoples YES NO TBD Are the activities likely to have indirect impacts on ☐ ☒ ☐ indigenous peoples? Will continuing stakeholder engagement processes ☒ ☐ ☐ and a grievance redress mechanism be integrated into the management / implementation plans? Cultural Heritage YES NO TBD Will the activity allow continuous access to the ☐ ☒ ☐ cultural heritage sites and properties? Will there be a need to prepare a procedure in case ☐ ☒ ☐ of the discovery of cultural heritage assets?

Sign-off: Jochem Zoetelief, Senior Programme Officer/Portfolio Manager, Science Division, UN Environment.