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Traffic Analysis TRAFFIC ANALYSIS Business Park Falster TENTacle WP2, Group of Activities 2.1, Activity 2.1.5. Version: June 2017 LeadLead Partner Partner Content 0. Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Project Background .................................................................................................................... 3 1.1. Future infrastructure projects related to Lolland-Falster ......................................................... 4 1.2. Focus in project ....................................................................................................................... 6 2. Current and historical traffic situation .................................................................................... 7 2.1. Road traffic .............................................................................................................................. 7 2.2. Freight transport by rail ......................................................................................................... 13 2.3. Freight transport by sea ......................................................................................................... 18 3. Experiences from the Great Belt and the Oresund fixed links ............................................. 22 3.1. Road transport ....................................................................................................................... 22 3.2. Freight transport by rail ......................................................................................................... 24 3.3. Summary of perspectives ...................................................................................................... 25 4. Future transport situation with the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link .............................................. 26 4.1. Available traffic forecasts ...................................................................................................... 26 4.2. Relevant traffic scenarios for Exit 43 .................................................................................... 28 4.3. Road traffic ............................................................................................................................ 29 4.4. Freight transport by rail ......................................................................................................... 35 4.5. Freight transport by sea ......................................................................................................... 39 5. Exit 43 as a lay-by on the Danish highway network .............................................................. 40 6. Transition period ...................................................................................................................... 42 7. Other transport centres ............................................................................................................ 43 8. Local impacts ............................................................................................................................ 45 9. List of references ....................................................................................................................... 46 0. Summary Guldborgsund Municipality is planning to expand the transport centre Business Park Falster near highway Exit 43 Nørre Alslev on the highway E47/E55 as this location is expected to have a business potential in relation to the planned Fehmarn Belt tunnel. Ramboll is preparing an analysis on behalf of Guldborgsund Municipality. The analysis will cover three main subjects: Transport analysis Analysis of potentials for the development Stakeholder analysis This technical memo describes the first part of the delivery regarding the traffic analysis. The main findings on the transport subjects are described in this summary. The analysis covers freight transport on road, rail and sea. The situation is analysed for these situations: 2016 - how does it look today 2028 - the first year with an open Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link (FBFL) 2038 - the FBFL has been open in 10 years and is part of everyday life The overall results of the analyses are summarized below: 2016 2028 2038 ROAD About one fifth of the truck traffic The opening of the FBFL is not expected In the period 2028 to 2038 the between Denmark and Germany are to impose major changes in route choice number of trucks is still crossing the Fehmarn Belt and most of for truck transport, but the number of growing but at a more steady these pass by Business Park Falster. trucks crossing the Fehmarn Belt will state. grow. The number of trucks passing by 24% more trucks are expected Business Park Falster is expected to be to pass by Business Park 36% higher than in 2016. Falster than in 2028 and 68% more trucks pass by than in 2016. The majority of rail freight in Denmark The opening of the FBFL radically Rail freight is continuing to RAIL is transit transport through Denmark. changes the transport structure as the grow after the opening of the connection will be a vital link in the FBFL, especially the transit rail About 8% of the international rail European rail freight network. freight, but also international freight to/from Denmark is going rail freight relevant to Business to/from Region Zealand but there is no Rail freight is expected to grow, but the Park Falster. freight rail infrastructure in the region as FBFL will mainly boost the transit rail all international rail freight is using the freight which is of little interest in The growth in freight volumes connection across The Great Belt. relation to Business Park Falster. to and from the Business Park Falster and its hinterland is It is estimated that half of the But the rail freight to/from Region estimated to be 22% from 2028 international rail freight to/from Region Zealand is also expected to grow and it to 2038 and 55% from 2016 to Zealand or 93 thousand tonnes a year is estimated that 118 thousand tonnes a 2038 will have an endpoint within the year will have an endpoint within the catchment area of Business Park Falster. catchment area of Business Park Falster. The rail freight to/from This is a 27% increase from 2016 to Business Park Falster is When exchanged to trucks the rail 2028. estimated to be 144 thousand freight volumes is estimated to be tonnes a year in 2038. This is equivalent of nearly 13 trucks a day to This is an equivalent of about 16 trucks a an equivalent of about 20 or from Business Park Falster. day to or from Business Park Falster. trucks a day to or from Business Park Falster. 1 2016 2028 2038 SEA The major component in freight Ferry freight will grow as described Ferry freight is expected to transport by sea is the ferry freight – above for truck freight. grow in accordance with the freight carried on trucks on the ferries growth in truck freight.. crossing Fehmarn Belt. The prognoses on sea freight in general are very uncertain as a very sudden The freight transport to/from the four decline in Danish sea transport has local Guldborgsund harbours is only 6% occurred in 2016 and it has not been of the volumes carried on the two found viable to do a prognosis on this ferries. basis The major changes in transport patterns and structures will be the reintroduction of rail freight transport crossing the Fehmarn Belt. Rail freight transport is expected to get a substantial growth but the major growth will be in transit transport, to which Business Park Falster has no or few services to offer. But still some rail freight has endpoints within the catchment area of Business Park Falster and in 2038 this freight is estimated to be an equivalent of 20 trucks a day to or from Business Park Falster. No major structural changes are expected in the road freight pattern and structures - the main routes will be unchanged but the volumes will grow. In 2038 the number of trucks passing by Business Park Falster on E47/55 is estimated to be 68% higher than in 2016. Freight transport by sea is dominated by the ferry freight on trucks and the development will follow the developments in truck transport. 2 1. Project Background Guldborgsund Municipality is planning to expand a transport centre Business Park Falster near highway Exit 43 Nørre Alslev on the highway E47/E55. Ramboll is preparing an analysis on behalf of the Guldborgsund Municipality. The analysis will cover three main subjects: Transport analysis Analysis of potentials for the development Stakeholder analysis This technical memo describes the first part of the delivery regarding the traffic analysis. Later memos will cover potential and stakeholder analysis. These analyses will be based on the results from this transport analysis. The transport centre has a beneficial location in the centre of an area with cities like Hamburg, Berlin, Copenhagen, Malmo, Stockholm and Oslo. The opening of the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link (FBFL) is expected to enhance the benefits even more. The Fehmarn Belt project is pointed out as “a key component in the main north-south route between central Europe and the Nordic countries” in the TEN-T network. After the completion of the project, the travel time between Copenhagen and Hamburg will be reduced by approximately one hour and for rail freight transport by approximately two hours1”. As a result, the mobility and accessibility of Guldborgsund Municipality and Exit 43 will be improved, and companies as well as individuals may consider moving to the municipality. Business Park Falster is visible
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