Public Opinion Survey: Residents of

February 9, 2021 – March 16, 2021 Detailed Methodology • The survey was coordinated by Ipsos on behalf of the International Republican Institute's Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR). The survey fieldwork was carried out by Magenta Consulting.

• Data was collected throughout Moldova (except for Transnistria) between February 9, 2021, and March 16, 2021, through computer-assisted phone interviews (CATI) using a dual-frame survey mode consisting of both mobile phones and landline phones.

• Mobile interviews: random selection of respondents using randomly generated mobile numbers of all Moldovan cellphone providers • Landline interviews: • Stage one: All districts (raions) of Moldova are grouped into 11 groups; all regions (with the exception of Transnistria) were surveyed. For all districts (raions) of Moldova numbers were randomly generated for each raion using raion prefixes • Stage two: Respondents were selected in households using the "last birthday" selection principle

• The sample, including an oversample of Chisinau, consisted of n=2,001 permanent residents of Moldova aged 18 and older and eligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age, gender, region and settlement size.

• Sampling frame: Moldova Statistical Databank. Weighting: Data was weighted for phone ownership, age groups, gender and settlement type using the last available population figures by the National Bureau of Statistics. For national-level analysis, the Chisinau oversample was weighted back down to its national proportion.

• The margin of error for the mid-range of the full, national sample does not exceed ±2.4 points at the 95% confidence level. • The margin of error for the mid-range of the full Chisinau sample does not exceed ±4.2 points at the 95% confidence level.

• The response rate was 9 percent. This response rate is lower than CISR's generally accepted response rates, even for telephone polls, which generally have lower response rates than face-to-face polls. However, additional vetting of the sample did not reveal any evident bias, and the sample is a close approximation of the Moldovan adult population in terms of demographic parameters. Due to the COVID-19 necessitated change in mode from face-to-face to telephone polling, CISR advises treating any trend comparisons against past polls with caution.

• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

• The survey was funded by the United States Agency for International Development. 2 Mood of the Country In general, would you say that Moldova is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer 90% 83%82% 79% 78% 80% 73%74% 73% 71% 72% 69% 68%68% 70% 66% 67% 61% 58% 57% 58% 62% 60% 55% 54% 54% 53% 51% 47% 45% 50% 51% 54% 47% 42% 40% 38% 38% 41% 40% 42% 41% 32% 37% 26% 28% 30% 34% 33%32% 33% 30% 31% 27% 27% 20% 19% 24% 24% 15% 23%23% 22%21% 13% 11% 9% 17% 10% 16% 17% 10% 14%15%14%15% 14% 5% 5% 5% 5% 12% 13% 12% 13% 10% 11% 11% 1% 10% 8% 9% 8% 8% 6% 9%

0% 5% 6% 7%

Apr-06 Apr-08

Jan-12

Oct-17 Oct-18

Jun-09 Jun-14 Jun-18 Jun-19

Sep-10 Sep-14 Sep-16

Mar-04 Mar-07 Mar-16

Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-18

Aug-11

Dec-11 Dec-18 Dec-19

Nov-04 Nov-08 Nov-09

May-10

Oct-15*

Mar-17**

Mar-21*** Aug-20*** *In December 2014, news broke of a major banking scandal involving nearly $1 billion missing from three state banks. The scandal is often referred to as “the stolen billion.” **In 2016, Moldova conducted the first popular presidential election since 1996. was elected in the second-round contest on November 13, 2016. *** Interviews for the August 2020 and March 2021 surveys were done via computer-assisted phone interviews (CATI). All previous polls were conducted through face-to-face interviews. 4 What is the most important problem facing Moldova today? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers; problems mentioned by at least 4 percent of respondents are displayed)

Economy: Unemployment 34% Economy: Low income 24% Corruption 22% Country's leadership/Incompetent, unprofessional governance 18% Coronavirus 17% Pensions 14% Poverty 13% Economy: Cost of living/High prices 12% Healthcare 11% Emigration 10% Political instability/Better politics 10% Economy: Other/General 10% Infrastructure 8% Education 7% Internal conflicts 6% The mentality of society/Indifferent, irresponsible citizens 4% COVID issues (closed kindergartens/schools/borders) 4% Solve people's problems in general/Listen to people 4% Don't know/Refused to answer 5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 5 What is the most important problem facing Moldova today? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers; problems mentioned by at least 4 percent of respondents are displayed)

(Chisinau respondents, n=575)

Corruption 30% Country's leadership/Incompetent, unprofessional governance 21% Economy: Unemployment 19% Economy: Low income 19% Coronavirus 18% Economy: Other/General 15% Political instability/Better politics 12% Poverty 12% Education 11% Healthcare 11% Internal conflicts 10% Economy: Cost of living/High prices 10% Pensions 10% Emigration 9% The mentality of society/Indifferent, irresponsible citizens 8% Infrastructure 7% Solve people's problems in general/Listen to people 6% Justice reform 4% Social services/Benefits 4% Don't know/Refused to answer 3%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 6 What is the most important problem facing your household today? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers; problems mentioned by at least 3 percent of respondents are displayed)

Economy: Low income 29% Healthcare 28% Economy: Unemployment 25% Economy: Cost of living/High prices 16% Pensions 15% Poverty 10% Emigration 8% Infrastructure 7% Coronavirus 6% Education 5% COVID issues (closed kindergartens/schools/borders) 4% Social services/Benefits 4% Housing 4% Corruption 3% Water 3% Political instability/Better politics 3% Economy: Other/General 3% No (other) problem 8% Don't know/Refused to answer 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 7 What is the most important problem facing your household today? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers; problems mentioned by at least 3 percent of respondents are displayed)

(Chisinau respondents, n=575)

Healthcare 28% Economy: Low income 28% Economy: Cost of living/High prices 17% Economy: Unemployment 15% Coronavirus 11% Pensions 10% Education 9% Infrastructure 6% COVID issues (closed kindergartens/schools/borders) 6% Political instability/Better politics 6% Emigration 6% Poverty 6% Housing 5% Corruption 4% Economy: Other/General 4% Social services/Benefits 3% Insecurity 3% No (other) problem 10% Don't know/Refused to answer 6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 8 In the event of a new government, what specific issues should be the top priority for the new government to address? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers; problems mentioned by at least 3 percent of respondents are displayed)

Economy: Unemployment 32% Economy: Low income 22% Corruption 19% Pensions 16% Healthcare 15% Economy: Cost of living/High prices 14% Economy: Other/General 13% Infrastructure 12% Solve people's problems in general/listen to people 10% Political instability/Better politics 9% Education 8% Coronavirus 8% Emigration 7% Social services/Benefits 7% COVID issues (closed kindergartens/schools/borders) 5% Standard of living 5% Agriculture 5% Poverty 4% International relations 4% Country's leadership/Incompetent, unprofessional governance 3% Internal conflicts 3% Justice reform 3% Economy: Small business opportunities/Access to loans 3% Don't know/Refused to answer 7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

9 In the event of a new government, what specific issues should be the top priority for the new government to address? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers; problems mentioned by at least 3 percent of respondents are displayed) (Chisinau respondents, n=575)

Corruption 22% Healthcare 21% Economy: Low income 21% Economy: Unemployment 20% Economy: Other/General 19% Education 14% Pensions 14% Economy: Cost of living/High prices 12% Infrastructure 11% Coronavirus 10% Solve people's problems in general/Listen to people 7% Social services/Benefits 7% Political instability/Better politics 7% Justice reform 5% Agriculture 5% COVID issues (closed kindergartens/schools/borders) 5% Internal conflicts 4% Country's leadership/Incompetent, unprofessional governance 4% International relations 4% Economy: Small business opportunities/Access to loans 4% Emigration 4% Poverty 3% Standard of living 3% Public safety 3% Don't know/Refused to answer 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 10 How would you describe the current economic situation of your household?

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer

March 2021 3% 56% 26% 14% 2%

August 2020 3% 54% 27% 15% 2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

*Nationwide August 2020 (Base n=2,017), Nationwide March 2021 (Base n=2,001) 11 How would you describe the current economic situation of your household? (Chisinau respondents, n=575) Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer

March 2021 4% 64% 21% 10% 1%

August 2020 2% 58% 26% 12% 2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

*Chisinau August 2020 (Base n=549); Chisinau March 2021 (Base n=575) 12 In the coming 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation of your household to change?

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/Refused to answer

March 2021 4% 29% 41% 9% 6% 13%

August 2020 2% 22% 37% 14% 6% 19%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

*Nationwide August 2020 (Base n=2,017), Nationwide March 2021 (Base n=2,001) 13 In the coming 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation of your household to change? (Chisinau respondents, n=575) Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/Refused to answer

March 2021 3% 22% 50% 9% 5% 10%

August 2020 2% 21% 41% 17% 6% 14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

*Chisinau August 2020 (Base n=549); Chisinau March 2021 (Base n=575) 14 Elections – Past and Future Do you think that the November 2020 presidential elections were free and fair? Definitely free and fair Probably free and fair Probably not free and fair Definitely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer

Nationwide 29% 37% 16% 12% 6%

Chisinau 26% 45% 15% 10% 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

*Nationwide (Base n=2,001), Chisinau (Base n=575) 16 Do you personally agree that early parliamentary elections should be held in Moldova in the next six months?

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Totally disagree Don't know/Refused to answer

Nationwide 37% 28% 13% 16% 7%

Chisinau 39% 27% 14% 15% 5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% *Nationwide (Base n=2,001), Chisinau (Base n=575). Interviewers clarified that “Early elections are those called earlier than the elections that have been scheduled for 2023.” 17 If parliamentary elections were held this coming Sunday, for which party, if any, would you vote? If parliamentary elections were held this coming Sunday, and the party you mentioned is not on the list, for which party, if any, would you vote?

First choice Second choice

Political Party "Action and Solidarity" (Grosu) 33% 6%

Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (Dodon) 19% 6%

Political Party "Our Party" (Usatîi) 6% 7%

Political Party “Șor” (Șor) 5% 6%

Political Party "Dignity and Truth" (Năstase) 5% 11%

Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (Voronin) 3% 5%

Democratic Party of Moldova (Filip) 2% 3%

Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (Filat) 2%1%

Liberal Party (Chirtoacă) 1% 2%

European People's Party of Moldova (Sturza) 1% 2%

National Unity Party (Țicu) <1% 2%

None (spoiled ballot) 1% 1%

Other 1% 2%

I would not vote 6% 12%

Don't know/Refused to answer 16% 12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% *22% of respondents had no second response. 18 If parliamentary elections were held this coming Sunday, for which party, if any, would you vote? If parliamentary elections were held this coming Sunday, and the party you mentioned is not on the list, for which party, if any, would you vote? (Chisinau respondents, n=575) First choice Second choice

Political Party "Action and Solidarity" (Grosu) 34% 3%

Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (Dodon) 21% 4%

Political Party "Our Party" (Usatîi) 4% 7%

Political Party “Șor” (Șor) 4% 6%

Political Party “Dignity and Truth“ (Năstase) 4% 13%

Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (Voronin) 4% 5%

Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (Filat) 2% 2%

Democratic Party of Moldova (Filip) 1% 3%

Liberal Party (Chirtoacă) 1% 4%

National Unity Party (Țicu) <1% 1%

European People's Party of Moldova (Sturza) <1% 2%

None (spoiled ballot) 1%<1%

Other 1% 2%

I would not vote 7% 13%

Don't know/Refused to answer 15% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 19 Politics Which politician or public person do you trust the most? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers; persons mentioned by at least 2 percent of respondents nationwide) Nationwide Chisinau 41% 42% 19% Igor Dodon 17% 12% Andrei Năstase 10% 11% Renato Usatîi 9% 7% Ilan Șor 4% 7% 8% 4% 3% 3% Octavian Țicu 4% 3% Alexandru Slusari 4% 3% Ion Chicu 5% 3% Ion Ceban 8% 3% Dorin Chirtoacă 4% 3% Zinaida Greceanîi 4% 2% Igor Grosu 3% 17% None 19% 16% Don't know/Refused to answer 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% *Nationwide (Base n=2,001), Chisinau (Base n=575) 21 International Relations How would you rate current relations between Moldova and the following countries?

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer

EU (Aug-20) 10% 63% 13% 1% 13%

EU (Mar-21) 14% 66% 11% 2% 8%

Romania (Aug-20) 9% 59% 16% 2% 15%

Romania (Mar-21) 19% 62% 9% 2% 8%

Russia (Aug-20) 8% 52% 23% 3% 14%

Russia (Mar-21) 5% 46% 34% 5% 9%

United States (Aug-20) 4% 50% 13% 2% 32%

United States (Mar-21) 7% 57% 11% 3% 23%

China (Aug-20) 3% 45% 9% 1% 42%

China (Mar-21) 2% 46% 10% 2% 38%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

*March 2021 (Base n=2,001), August 2020 (Base n=2,017) 23 How would you rate current relations between Moldova and the following countries?

(Chisinau respondents, n=575)

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer

Romania 16% 69% 7% 1% 7%

European Union 9% 70% 12% 2% 6%

United States 5% 63% 12% 3% 18%

China 2% 51% 9% 1% 36%

Russia 2% 41% 41% 6% 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

24 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important economic partner(s) and political partner(s) for our country? (Respondents evaluated each country/organization separately as to whether they were among the most important or not) European Union Romania Russia United States China 80%

72% 70% 67%

60% 57% 55% 55%

50% 46%

40%

29% 30% 30% 27%

19% 20%

10%

0% Economic partner Political partner *Nationwide (Base n=2,001) 25 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important economic partner(s) and political partner(s) for our country? (Chisinau respondents, n=575; Respondents evaluated each country/organization separately as to whether they were among the most important or not) European Union Romania Russia United States China 80% 74% 72% 70%

60% 59% 60% 58%

49% 50%

40% 36% 32% 29% 30% 23% 20%

10%

0% Economic partner Political partner *Chisinau (Base n=575) 26 Corruption In your opinion, how effective are authorities in addressing corruption?

Very effective Somewhat effective Somewhat ineffective Very ineffective Don't know/Refused to answer

Local 16% 31% 19% 23% 12% authorities

National 11% 23% 26% 28% 12% authorities

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

28 In your opinion, how effective are authorities in addressing corruption? (Chisinau respondents, n=575) Very effective Somewhat effective Somewhat ineffective Very ineffective Don't know/Refused to answer

Local 7% 26% 28% 34% 6% authorities

National 7% 20% 33% 33% 7% authorities

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

29 Over the past 12 months, has corruption among authorities increased, decreased, or stayed the same?

Increased Same Decreased Don't know/Refused to answer

Local 20% 52% 13% 15% authorities

National 24% 49% 12% 15% authorities

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

30 Over the past 12 months, has corruption among authorities increased, decreased, or stayed the same? (Chisinau respondents, n=575)

Increased Same Decreased Don't know/Refused to answer

Local 23% 53% 12% 13% authorities

National 20% 54% 12% 15% authorities

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

31 To what degree is it the responsibility of citizens to address corruption?

To a very large degree To a large degree To a small degree To a very small degree Don't know/Refused to answer

Nationwide 28% 32% 21% 12% 6%

Chisinau 35% 36% 16% 9% 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

*Nationwide (Base n=2,001), Chisinau (Base n=575) 32 Diaspora Do you have any members of your household currently living or working/studying abroad?

<1%

39%

Yes

No

Don't know/Refused to answer

61%

*Nationwide (Base n=2,001) 34 In which country or countries do you have members of your household currently living or working, or studying abroad ? (Respondents that have members of family abroad; respondents permitted to supply spontaneous answers; countries mentioned by at least 3 percent of 35% nationwide or Chisinau respondents)

30% Nationwide Chisinau 30% 26% 25% 22% 20% 20% 19% 16% 15% 14% 15% 13% 11% 10%10% 10% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 0% 1% 0%

*Nationwide (Base n=788), Chisinau (Base n=205), people who have household members abroad 35 Number of household members that are abroad (Respondents permitted to supply spontaneous answers)

1 member abroad

31% 2 members abroad 53% 3 members abroad

4 members abroad

5 members abroad

Don't know/Refused to answer

10%

2% 3% 1%

*Nationwide (Base n=788) people who have household members abroad. Interviewers asked “Please indicate who exactly from your household is abroad. You shouldn’t mention names, but only who they are to you - mother, father, etc.” 36 On average, what percentage, if any, of your annual household income comes from the remittances you receive from your household members abroad? (Respondents that have members of household abroad)

60% 53% 50%

40%

30%

20% 11% 10% 8% 7% 7% 5% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 0%

*Nationwide (Base n=788), people who have household members abroad 37 Do you have any members of your household who voted abroad in the November 2020 presidential elections?

Yes 31% 54% No

No members of my household were abroad during November 2020 Don't know/Refused to answer

5%

10%

*Nationwide (Base n=788), Chisinau (Base n=205), people who have household members abroad 38 How would you evaluate the social and political views of you and the following household member abroad? They are…

Very similar More or less similar More or less different Totally different

Nationwide 39% 33% 15% 14% (n=688)

Chisinau 39% 33% 20% 9% (n=185)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

*Base - respondents who assessed the views of all household members abroad. This represents the average score of all household members abroad for each respondent who assessed the views of all the people he/she mentioned. Labels correspond to the following values: (a) score 1-1.49 - very similar (b) 1.5-2.49 – more or less similar (c) 2.5-3.49 – more or less different (d) 3.5-4 – totally different 39 Sources of Information How interested or uninterested are you in political news and information?

1% 31%

11% Very interested

Somewhat interested

Somewhat uninterested 9% Very uninterested

Don't know/Refused to answer

48%

*Nationwide (Base n=2001), Chisinau (Base n=575) 41 Which sources of information do you use most frequently to access political news and information? (Respondents permitted to supply three answers)

First choice Second choice Third choice

Television 54% 24% 3%

Internet (other than social media) 24% 18% 5%

Social media 12% 12% 5%

Radio 3% 9% 10%

Relatives, friends 1%4% 8%

Print media (newspaper and magazines articles) 1% 6% 7%

Other <1%1% 1%

None 3%

Don't know/Refused to answer 1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% *Nationwide (Base n=2001) 42 Do you use any of the following social media sites?

Nationwide Chisinau

61% Facebook 73% 57% Viber 72% 50% Facebook Messenger 57% 49% YouTube 59% 36% WhatsApp 46% 35% Odnoklassniki 27% 30% Instagram 35% 16% Telegram 28% 12% Vkontakte 12% 4% Twitter 7% 4% MoiMir 6% 3% Linkedin 7% 3% LiveJournal 5% 21% I don't use social media 11% 1% Don't know/Refused to answer <1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

*Nationwide (Base n=2,001), Chisinau (Base n=575) 43 Demographics Demographics

60% National Sample Chisinau Sample 53%54%

50% 48% 47%46% 44% 45%

40% 36% 35%

30% 24% 22% 20% 20% 20% 17% 17% 15% 12% 14% 9% 10% 8% 6% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% <1% 1% 0%

0%

50+

Men

18-29 30-49

Women

Secondary

PhD/postPhD

Primaryschool

Secondaryspecial

Noformal education

Secondaryprofessional

Completehigher education

Incompletehigher education

Incompletesecondary school Don'tknow/Refused to answer GENDER AGE EDUCATION 45 Demographics

National Sample Chisinau Sample

100% 91% 90%

80%

70%

60% 55% 50% 50% 45%

40% 33% 30% 24% 19% 20% 11% 10% 9% 10% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 1% 2% 3% 1% 4% 2% 1% 3% 2%

0%

Rural

Other

Urban

Retired

Homemaker

Student/Pupil

Maternityleave

Self-employedfull-time

Self-employedpart-time

Unemployed, for a looking job

Employed a in paid job full-time

Employed a in paid job part-time Unemployed, looking not for a job OCCUPATION SETTLEMENT TYPE

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