Contarinia Nasturtii Kieffer) Population Dynamics in Its Invasive Range
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Modelling swede midge (Contarinia nasturtii Kieffer) population dynamics in its invasive range by Jenny Liu A Thesis presented to The University of Guelph In partial fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Environmental Science Guelph, Ontario, Canada © Liu, April, 2019 ABSTRACT MODELLING SWEDE MIDGE (CONTARINIA NASTURTII) POPULATION DYNAMICS IN ITS INVASIVE RANGE Jenny Liu Advisor: University of Guelph, 2019 Professor R.H. Hallett Effective pest management of the invasive swede midge (Contarinia nasturtii Kieffer) is hindered by the lack of development and mortality information in its invasive range. This thesis had 2 main objectives: 1) generate temperature-dependent development and mortality data for Ontario populations of C. nasturtii; and, 2) revise an existing C. nasturtii life cycle model (MidgEmerge) with this information. Temperature-dependent development and mortality rates were determined for all C. nasturtii life stages. This information, and robust adult count field data, were used to re-parameterize MidgEmerge and develop MidgEmergeII. Egg and larval development times were found to differ between Ontario and UK populations. The re-developed MidgEmergeII model accurately predicted C. nasturtii population dynamics in various southern Ontario locations. Results indicate that there are 3 C. nasturtii emergence phenotypes and 2-3 generations in Ontario, in contrast to the previous model. These findings have implications for C. nasturtii management in its invasive range. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, Dr. Rebecca Hallett, who is some perfect combination of pragmatic and encouraging, for walking me through this. Big thanks also go to my committee members, Drs. Jonathan Newman, Boyd Mori, and Owen Olfert, for always being available and for giving me feedback that improved all aspects of this thesis. Many thanks go to Dr. Angela Gradish for helping me carve a thesis out of what was sometimes just a jumble of words, and to Jamie Heal, for answering my relentless questions. To my wonderful labmates/comrades-in-arms, Charles-Étienne Ferland, Carol McLennan, Matthew Muzzatti, Cassie Russell, Sahba Shahmohamadloo and the hooligans from the Scott-Dupree lab: thank you for making this trip easier. To the Saskatoon AAFC crew: Ross Weiss, Dr. Boyd Mori, Dr. Meghan Vankosky, Shane Hladun, Jon Williams, Stephanie Harris, and Dr. Owen (Wilson) Olfert: thank you for graciously accepting me into your lab and for making everything run smoothly despite my topsy-turvy, midge-controlled sleeping schedule. To OAC resident statistician and superwoman Dr. Michelle Edwards, and University of Guelph Data Resource Centre data analysts Nada Hafez and Lucia Constanzo, thank you all for answering my multitudes of basic and angst-ridden questions about statistics. It really does take a village of statisticians to raise a grad student. Thanks go to Meghan Moran for her incredible support with contacts all over Ontario; Nathan Mountain, Manish Patel and Weather INNovations for weather data; and Simon Pawlowski and Dr. Andrew Frewin for patiently teaching me how to use R. iii To my parents, Hong Liu and Caroline Zhuo, thank you so much for your excellent suggestions when I ran into logistical roadblocks during experimentation, for ruthlessly stuffing me with home-cooked meals, and for generally worrying about me. Finally – a clap on the back and an affectionate headbutt to my partner, Laird Khuu, for keeping me grounded and happy, and for always trying his best to understand the bug thing despite strong natural inclinations to the opposite. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ............................................................................................................................ii Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................ v List of Tables ...................................................................................................................ix List of Figures ..................................................................................................................xi 1 Literature Review and Research Objectives ............................................................ 1 1.1 Swede midge (Contarinia nasturtii) .................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Life cycle and distribution ............................................................................ 2 1.1.2 Contarinia nasturtii management strategies ................................................ 5 1.2 Phenological modeling of C. nasturtii ................................................................. 6 1.2.1 Contarinia nasturtii life history traits that affect population dynamics: Knowledge gaps....................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Research Objectives ........................................................................................ 11 2 Determining temperature-dependent development and mortality parameters of the swede midge (Contarinia nasturtii) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) ........................................ 13 v 2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 13 2.2 Materials and methods ..................................................................................... 15 2.2.1 General experiment methods .................................................................... 15 2.2.2 Insect rearing ............................................................................................. 16 2.2.3 Egg development ....................................................................................... 17 2.2.4 Egg mortality .............................................................................................. 19 2.2.5 Larval development and mortality .............................................................. 19 2.2.6 Pupal development and mortality .............................................................. 20 2.2.7 Adult longevity ........................................................................................... 21 2.2.8 Statistical analyses .................................................................................... 23 2.3 Results ............................................................................................................. 29 2.3.1 Development time ...................................................................................... 29 2.3.2 Model evaluation for fitting development rates .......................................... 37 2.4 Discussion ........................................................................................................ 42 2.4.1 Development Rates ................................................................................... 42 2.4.2 Model evaluation ....................................................................................... 45 vi 3 Re-developing MidgEmerge, a population dynamics model, for Canadian populations of the invasive swede midge (Contarinia nasturtii) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) 49 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 49 3.2 Methods ........................................................................................................... 53 3.2.1 Field sites and data collection .................................................................... 53 3.2.2 Weather data ............................................................................................. 54 3.2.3 Model parameterization ............................................................................. 54 3.2.4 Modules used in MEII ................................................................................ 59 3.2.5 Model initialization ..................................................................................... 59 3.2.6 Validation ................................................................................................... 67 3.3 Results ............................................................................................................. 67 3.3.1 Emergence patterns and peak prediction .................................................. 67 3.3.2 First emergence timing .............................................................................. 68 3.3.3 Critical values ............................................................................................ 69 3.4 Discussion ........................................................................................................ 71 3.4.1 Model performance .................................................................................... 71 vii 3.4.2 Potential areas for model improvement ..................................................... 76 3.4.3 Number of C. nasturtii generations ............................................................ 78 4 General discussion ................................................................................................. 82 5 References ............................................................................................................. 88 6 Appendix A ........................................................................................................... 104 7 Appendix B ..........................................................................................................