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Laudato Si' and the Path to COP22 26.09.2016

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Laudato Si' and the Path to COP22 26.09.2016 24 th September 2016 Blessed Virgin Mary of Mercy PONTIFICIUM CONSILIUM DE IUSTITIA ET PACE To the kind attention of the President, His Eminence, Most Rev. Cardinal Peter K. A. Turkson Palazzo S. Calisto 00120 Vatican City Dear Cardinal Turkson, dear Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Mons. Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo, with my profound sentiments of honour and gratitude for your invitation to such an important Consultation entitled “Laudato Si’ and the path to COP 22” , to be held on next Wednesday 28 September, guided by sincere spirit of service, I would like to share with you and with all the distinguished participants the following reflections. “Friendship is more useful to the world than the riches.” Matteo Ricci SJ (1605) Actually this meeting demonstrates that the climate change challenge can turn into an important occasion of scientific and institutional N-S E-W cooperation, namely into a new opportunity of justice and peace. Because Planet Earth has got just one border: that thin film of atmosphere where we all breath. “Beside my bed a pool of light Is it hoarfrost on the ground? I lift my eyes and see the moon, I bend my head and think of home.” Li Bai (750) Paris Agreement is really an historical milestone along the way for taking more care of Mother Earth, not only for the demanding but needful target consisting in the limit of global average temperature respect to the pre-industrial levels, but also for the fundamental principles and motivations, subscribed by 196 Countries, intimately related to the environmental concerns (intergenerational equity, climate justice, common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, rights of indigenous people and migrants, need of eradication of poverty, safeguarding food security, importance of public awareness and participation), (LS, 13) “bringing the whole human family together to seek a sustainable and integral development, for we know that things can change.” 1 “Lord, make me an instrument of thy peace” Saint Francis of Assisi (1220) In the encyclical Laudato Si’ (LS) Pope Francis has launched to all people an heartfelt appeal about our common home, firstly as regards the global problem of climate change, by analysing its grave implications: environmental, social, economic, political and for the distribution of goods (LS 25), and by exploring its deepest roots from an anthropological, ethical and spiritual points of view, reaching up to the need of a conversion to an integral ecology and ultimately to an urgent request for a new, universal solidarity . Being aware that “the same mindset which stands in the way of making radical decisions to reverse the trend of global warming also stands in the way of achieving the goal of eliminating poverty. A more responsible overall approach is needed to deal with both problems: the reduction of pollution and the development of poorer countries and regions.” (LS, 175) “The idea that economic growth and climate action are incompatible may sound hardheaded and realistic, but it’s actually a fuzzy-minded misconception. If we ever get past the special interests and ideology that have blocked action to save the planet, we’ll find that it’s cheaper and easier than almost anyone imagines.” Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize (2014) I’m personally convinced that such complex ethical and environmental goals are not only necessary and wise but also perfectly feasible. “If you don’t know to which harbour you’re sailing, no wind is favourable.” Seneca (50) The question is: what is the best way to achieve them in the shortest possible time? Probably the most effective method to find out an answer consists in an effort of hope and imagination, averting every possible nightmare. A leap into the future, from which it is possible to glimpse the key trends, to identify the factors that can work, to raise innovative ideas (as known, the ancient Greek root of the word “idea” is “sight, vision”), to learn some useful indication. “An integral ecology is marked by a broader vision.” (LS, 159) A foresight scenario, through a sort of evocative/provocative “backward planning”, an introductive exercise of “logical framework approach” 1 So, let’s try to broaden and lengthen our gaze! “We need well-trained lay people animated by a sincere and limpid faith. We need lay people with vision of the future.” Pope Francis (2016) 1 Logical Framework Approach (LFA) is a management methodology developed in 1969 for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). It is largely implemented by multilateral donor organizations for country assistance programs. 2 Vatican City, 28 th September 2030 The Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development and the Pontifical Academy of Sciences have jointly organized the Conference “Heavens declare and the path to COP 36” . A year after the publication of the Encyclical Letter “Heavens declare” of Pope Francis II on integral ecology, there is the need to analyse the recent progresses obtained in the fight against global warming. The assembly has expressed moderate optimism. In fact, after the stocktaking events held in 2023 and 2028 to assess the collective progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement, even if the increase of global average temperature is still alarmingly approaching the limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels along with all related deleterious effects (extreme wheatear events, artic sea ice and glacial retreat, ocean acidification, desertification, biodiversity loss, diseases, etc.), fortunately the latest figures and credible projections (Mauna Loa Observatory has registered a slight deceleration of the atmospheric concentration of CO 2, namely 425 ppm), confirm that global GHGs levels started a route of sharp slowdown, approximately along the curve wished by IPCC fifteen years ago. In these last years, according to the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC)”, the bar of NDCs have been considerably raised, practically doubled, while effective compliance mechanisms have been implemented. To some extent, international community is trying to build on the overall positive experience concerning the fight against ozone depletion, in terms of combination of global regulatory norms (LS, 173) and methods to reduce/avoid CFCs-GHGs. The paradoxical match Humanity vs Anthropocene continues. “Hope is a path on the mountainside. At first there is no path. But then there are people passing that way. And there is a path.” Lu Xun, leading figure of modern Chinese literature (1930) 3 Here below, a synthesis of the most significant evidences emerged from the comparison of experience, scientific outcomes and views among the participants. Electricity from solar and wind exceeds 30% at global level. In particular, around year 2020 photovoltaic has reached the “grid parity” in most countries. Increasing distributed generation and prosumers’ proliferation 2, also thanks to the new storage battery systems, has revolutionized shape and activities of utilities, now committed mainly in demand side and smart grids management, closely integrated with information and communication technologies. Solar is recognized as the most democratic source of energy. The target of 100% electricity from renewables by the end of the century is considered practicable, also because it has been already attained in some country (e.g. Denmark). A combination of industrial, economic (e.g. high costs of oil extraction, oversupply), environmental (norms more and more cogent on externalities, limits of GHGs emissions and pollutants according to the Clean Air Scenario 3) and fiscal (carbon tax) elements, together with a relevant drop in consumption (energy efficiency, also thanks to the innovation extensively introduced in the building sector – net-zero energy building is a standard – especially concerning new materials, integration with renewables and automation), has made fossil fuel not convenient in many circumstances. That has already led to clamorous collapses of some big company. Coal and oil – after their peak in 2020 – are the hardest hit sectors. Natural gas maintains an important role in the global energy balance. But it is clear that brown economy has been outclassed by the green one. Apart any concern on the related environmental risks, if not supported by public subsidies, nuclear (especially if the entire project cycle of plants is assessed) is not cost-effective. After the dramatic burst of the shale oil/gas bubble, fracking has been abandoned, also for its heavy impact on the subsoil and aquifers. Same fate for many techniques of CO 2 sequestration. Rockefeller Brothers Fund director Stephen Heintz said the move to divest from fossil fuels would be in line with oil tycoon John D Rockefeller's wishes: “We are convinced that if he were alive today, as an astute businessman looking out to the future, he would be moving out of fossil fuels and investing in clean, renewable energy.” (2014) Conservation and enhancement of natural sinks and reservoirs found satisfying results concerning forests. In fact, thanks to the initial international agreement adopted in Warsaw (back in the year 2013, COP 19), then strengthened through the UN Programme on “Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries” (REDD) and the further legal and binding decisions on protection and monitoring of forestry and agroforestry, since 2020 net contribution of forests to the mitigation of climate (new green areas/surface deforested) is positive and constantly
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