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Letting in the Light: How Solar Photovoltaics Will Revolutionise The LETTING IN THE LIGHT HOW SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS WILL REVOLUTIONISE THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM Copyright © IRENA 2016 ISBN 978-92-95111-95-0 (Print), ISBN 978-92-95111-96-7 (PDF) Unless otherwise stated, this publication and material herein are the property of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and are subject to copyright by IRENA. Material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that all such material is clearly attributed to IRENA and bears a notation of copyright (© IRENA) with the year of copyright. Material contained in this publication attributed to third parties may be subject to third-party copyright and separate terms of use and restrictions, including restrictions in relation to any commercial use. This publication should be cited as: IRENA (2016), ‘Letting in the Light: How solar PV will revolutionise the electricity system,’ Abu Dhabi. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org Acknowledgements IRENA is grateful for the valuable contributions of Mark Turner in the preparation of this study. This report benefited from the reviews and comments of numerous experts, including Morgan Bazilian (World Bank), John Smirnow (Global Solar Council), Tomas Kåberger (Renewable Energy Institute), Paddy Padmanathan (ACWA Power), Linus Mofor (UNECA), DK Khare (Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, India), Maurice Silva (Ministry of Energy, Chile), Eicke Weber (Fraunhofer ISE). Authors: Dolf Gielen, Ruud Kempener, Michael Taylor, Francisco Boshell and Amr Seleem (IRENA) For further information or to provide feedback: [email protected] This report is available for download from www.irena.org/publications Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”, for informational purposes. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material featured in this publication. Neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other, third-party content providers or licensors provides any warranty, including as to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose or use of such material, or regarding the non-infringement of third-party rights, and they accept no responsibility or liability with regard to the use of this publication and the material therein. The material contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects, products or services does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area, or their authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. PhotosImages inin thethe report©Shutterstockreport©Shutterstock (unless otherwise indicated) LETTING IN THE LIGHT HOW SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS WILL REVOLUTIONISE THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM 2016 CONTENTS FOREWORD . 5 SOLAR ENERGY: A NEW ERA . 6 Plummeting cost of solar . 9 Dramatic shift in scale . 12 Shock to the system . 12 Revolution in ownership . 15 Traditional business models under pressure . 18 New financial and business models flourishing . 20 Integration with old technologies . 21 Driving solar PV forward . 22 THE ROAD AHEAD . 26 Solar PV: The technology . 30 Solar PV: The economics . 34 Solar PV: The applications . 38 Solar PV: The infrastructure . 43 Solar PV: The policy framework . 46 Wider impact of solar PV: What to expect . 48 REFERENCES . 50 FIGURES Figure 1 Prices of utility-scale solar PV in key markets . 11 Figure 2 Solar PV: Global installed capacity, 2006-2015, and possible investments to 2030 . 13 Figure 3 Evolution of distributed power generation in Germany . 15 Figure 4 Ownership of solar PV generation capacity in Germany by size class . 16 Figure 5 Examples of loss of revenue factors . 24 Figure 6 Best research cell efficiencies, 1993-2015 . 30 Figure 7 Capital costs of utility- and residential-scale solar PV . 34 Figure 8 Global weighted average utility-scale solar PV total installed costs, 2009-2025 . 36 Figure 9 Recent solar PV projections by different organisations . 38 Figure 10 Solar PV deployment by country in GW in 2030 . 42 Figure 11 Centralised storage applications to support the integration of solar PV . 45 BOXES Box 1 Solar PV versus traditional power generation . 14 Box 2 Rooftop solar could cover 40% of US electricity . 17 Box 3 SunEdison: Rise and fall of a solar superstar . 20 Box 4 Standards and quality assurance: Key instruments to ensure financial flows to PV projects . 24 Box 5 Major international renewable energy initiatives . 25 Box 6 Innovation in manufacturing . 31 Box 7 CdTe solar cells . 33 Box 8 Innovation in installation and maintenance . 37 Box 9 Solar PV in Japan . 39 TABLES Table 1 Shift in the power sector paradigm: Old and new buzzwords (IRENA analysis) . 19 Table 2 Investment cost for solar PV power (USD per kilowatt) in 2015 . 36 4 LETTING IN THE LIGHT FOREWORD Renewable energy is now recognised as a key element of the global response to climate change, and as a central piece of the sustainable development agenda. At the same time, a new day is dawning in the ways we produce and consume energy. Smart technologies and innovative business models have combined to put energy choices increasingly in the hands of everyday energy consumers. Solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation is at the heart of this transformation. It is poised to revolutionise the world’s electricity systems, letting consumers produce power for their own needs and feed surplus energy into the grid. Solar PV already accounts for about 2% of global electricity in 2016, but could reach as much as 13% by 2030. In order for this to happen, solar PV capacity additions must double in 14 years. Taking the right combination of policy and investment decisions today can make this a reality. Letting in the Light captures comprehensive global data and statistics for solar PV, including installed capacity, costs, and investment. The report underscores that continual cost reduction is the main driver of accelerating uptake in the solar industry. According to our analysis at the International Renewable Energy Agency, solar PV costs — having fallen by at least half since 2010 — could fall another 59% in the next ten years. These continued cost reductions, in combination with other enabling factors, can create a dramatic expansion of solar power globally. The report analyses the many environmental and job-creation benefits that such an expansion can unlock. Already today, the PV value chain employs some 2.8 million people worldwide, the largest number for any renewable energy type. PV power generation has cut carbon-dioxide emissions by an estimated 300 million tonnes per year and could cut them tenfold by 2030. The age of solar energy has arrived for both advanced economies and the developing world, where deployment can accelerate the energy transition, provide modern electricity and improve the lives of billions of people. However, for this key technology to realise its full potential, PV markets will need updated policies in line with the latest innovations. Solar technologies, as part of the diverse spectrum of renewables, can help to ensure a sustainable energy future. I am confident this publication will help stimulate the necessary policy dialogue, to accelerate the global energy transition already underway. Adnan Z. Amin, IRENA Director-General HOW SOLAR PV WILL REVOLUTIONISE THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM 5 “World electricity demand is expected to grow by more than 50% by 2030, mostly in developing and emerging economies. To meet this demand while also realising global development and sustainability goals, governments must implement policies that enable solar to achieve its full potential.” — Adnan Z. Amin, IRENA Director-General 6 LETTING IN THE LIGHT SOLAR ENERGY: A NEW ERA HOW SOLAR PV WILL REVOLUTIONISE THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM 7 8 LETTING IN THE LIGHT SOLAR ENERGY: A NEW ERA The age of solar energy has arrived. It came faster than anyone predicted and is ushering in a global shift in energy ownership. People are only just beginning to recognise the consequences of this change. Solar photovoltaic (PV) power is already the most widely owned electricity source in the world in terms of number of installations, and its uptake is accelerating. In only five years, global installed capacity has grown from 40 gigawatts (GW) to 227 GW. By comparison, the entire generation capacity of Africa is 175 GW. Solar PV accounted for 20% of all new power generation capacity in 2015, according to statistics gathered by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). This amounted to 47 GW in a single year, equivalent to the total power generation capacity of Poland. We are seeing the emergence of solar power everywhere: from large-scale utilities to micro-grids; from billion-dollar corporate HQs to rural rooftops; and from megacities to small islands and isolated communities. We see solar next to our airports, along our roads, in our fields and on top of our car parks. This shift is taking place not only in advanced economies but also in the developing world. Solar PV deployment promises to improve the well-being of billions of people previously cut off from reliable electricity. An electricity system once dominated by monolithic state agencies and a few large corporations is giving way to a vast range of owners and producers.
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