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Transport Modelling Guidelines (Volume 4)

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Transport Modelling Guidelines (Volume 4) Transport Modelling Guidelines Volume 4: Simulation Modelling Fri, 2 Aug 2019 Document Information Document Title Transport Modelling Guidelines (Volume 4) FileIt Reference 16275208 Filename TransportModellingGuidelinesVolume4SimulationModelling(small).pdf Last Saved Friday, 2 August 2019 Revision History Version Date Issued Prepared by Reviewed by Approved by Draft 20 Sept 2018 Julian Laufer Cameron Lee Jeremy Burdan 1.0 30 June 2019 Julian Laufer Cameron Lee 1.01 02 August 2019 Julian Laufer Cameron Lee Simulation Modelling Guidelines Executive Summary This document outlines the guidelines for simulation of traffic and transport for delivery of VicRoads modelling pursuits. The document aims to complement the existing volumes of guidelines and build for industry direction on the expectations from VicRoads for a suitable investigation. The guideline outlines details within selected key topics, with an underlying focus on building an evidence based pursuit to develop a narrative for consideration from all stakeholders. The key areas discussed within this report include the following topics: Data collection, data types, cleansing and analysis Model development, including calibration and validation Model performance and reporting of conditions Scenario testing and options explorations In amongst the elements for consideration within this guideline, is a discussion about the three primary areas of model calibration, which includes the following topics: Demand considerations Behavioural considerations Network considerations A strong focus is provided on the differences between the terms of demand and throughput as an input to the model development. The core of developing a base model is to ensure that this simulation measures well to reflect the current conditions observed. This is also utilised as a platform to progress forward and consider changes in the network for either immediate effect or for change in a future horizon. Direction is provided to explore network validation for application of journey times, rather than by traffic volumes. Some discussion is also provided about secondary validation measures which include the demand profiles, the signal plans and additional measures. The guidelines also provide some direction to outline conditions for when validation is required for a notable change in travel times. Performance metrics are discussed within the guidelines to ensure that the correct evidence is provided to tell the narrative of the proposed conditions. This includes but is not limited to intersection performance, corridor performance and network performance. Discussion about the robustness of a model is also provided as are methods to better present this detail in the narrative. A number of points about network development and delivery expectations are listed within to ensure that the proposed schemes can be delivered as simulated. Topics in this space include consideration of demand and time profiles, signal plans, public transport and more. One of the primary topics of discussion is the difference between the future year demand estimates and the design requirements. A number of key inputs are listed to ensure that the scenarios developed are comparable against the base model or equivalent Business As Usual condition. Overall the guidelines intend to ensure that the modelling reports provided to VicRoads and stakeholders can be read and comprehended without the need for further interpretation by third parties. This involves producing a narrative that outlines the evidence as well developing discussion of the current or expected problem/s within the network explored. Where required, some amelioration to the problem may need to be discussed and addressed. August 2019 Simulation Modelling Guidelines Transport Modelling Guidelines Table of Contents Executive Summary i Table of Contents ii Figures viii Tables x 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Correspondence 1 1.2. The role of VicRoads 2 1.3. Quality Assurance 2 1.4. Purpose of these Guidelines 3 1.5. Guideline Stakeholder Focus 3 2. Overview 4 2.1. Why Conduct Transport Modelling 4 2.2. Terminology 5 2.3. Model Types 6 2.4. Modelling Software 7 2.5. Criteria for Selecting Modelling Methodology 7 3. Types of Simulation Modelling 10 3.1. Micro-simulation 10 3.2. Meso-simulation 11 3.3. Hybrid simulation 11 3.4. Pedestrian simulation 11 3.5. Examples 11 4. Project Investigation and Scope Formation 15 4.1. Introduction 15 4.2. Project Definition 16 August 2019 Simulation Modelling Guidelines 4.3. Project Considerations 16 4.4. Project Geography 17 4.5. Modelling Framework 18 4.5.1. Development of the Base Model Process 18 4.5.2. Option Modelling Process 19 4.6. Identify the appropriate evaluation time period. 20 4.7. Legacy Models 20 5. Data collection 24 5.1. Data Collection Summary 29 5.2. Types of Data 31 5.2.1. Traffic Counts 31 5.2.1.1. Traffic Assignment from Strategic Modelling 32 5.2.1.2. Pivot Point Modelling 33 5.2.2. Classification Counts 33 5.2.2.1. Heavy Goods Vehicles 35 5.2.3. Journey Times 36 5.2.3.1. Median Journey Time 36 5.2.3.2. Journey Time Consistency 37 5.2.4. Queue Lengths 40 5.2.5. Signal Controllers 40 5.2.6. Origin-Destination Data 46 5.2.7. Pedestrians 47 5.2.8. Cyclists 47 5.2.9. Motorway Data 48 5.2.10. Public Transport 50 5.2.11. Level Crossings 51 5.2.12. Car Sharing 52 5.2.13. Taxis 52 5.2.14. Parking 52 5.2.15. Saturation Flow 53 5.3. Seasonality 56 5.3.1. Overview 56 5.3.2. Accounting for Seasonality 56 5.4. Growth Factors 63 5.5. Other Contributing Factors 63 5.6. Developing data collection methods 63 August 2019 Simulation Modelling Guidelines 5.6.1. Drones 63 5.6.2. GPS Probes 64 5.7. Study area types and degree of data collection 65 5.7.1. Intersection studies 65 5.7.2. Corridor studies 65 5.7.3. Town centre studies 65 5.7.4. Local Government Area (LGA) studies 65 5.7.5. Motorway studies 65 5.8. Quality Limitations 66 6. Calibration 70 6.1. Demand Considerations 70 6.1.1. Demand Matrices 70 6.1.2. Total Demand 72 6.1.3. Travel Zones 72 6.1.4. Saturation Flow 74 6.1.5. Demand Time Profiles 76 6.1.6. Warm Up / Cool Down Periods 78 6.1.7. Screenlines 79 6.2. Behavioural Considerations 80 6.2.1. Behavioural Algorithms 80 6.2.2. Omitted Vehicles 81 6.2.3. Speed 81 6.2.4. Intersection Blocking 88 6.2.5. Gap Acceptance 88 6.2.6. Weaving, Merging and Diverging 90 6.2.7. Vehicle Lengths 92 6.2.8. Network Colours 96 6.3. Network Considerations 97 6.3.1. Network Design 97 6.3.2. Time Steps 98 6.3.3. Queue Length 98 6.3.4. Signalised Intersections 99 6.3.5. Ramp Signals 103 6.3.6. Model Stability 103 6.3.7. Seed Analysis 104 6.3.8. Stability Plots 106 6.3.9. Latent Demand (Unrealised Journeys) 108 6.3.10. Public Transport 109 August 2019 Simulation Modelling Guidelines 6.3.10.1. Stop Allocations 109 6.3.10.2. Dwell Times 110 6.3.10.3. Arrival Patterns 110 6.3.10.4. Skipped Stops 111 6.3.10.5. Journey Speeds 111 6.3.11. Other modes of transport 111 6.3.11.1. Bicycles 111 6.3.11.2. Pedestrians 111 6.3.12. Journey Impedance 112 6.4. Volume Confirmation 113 6.4.1. Benchmark Metrics 113 6.4.2. Methods of Evaluation 114 6.4.3. Reporting the Differences between Volume Sets 117 6.4.4. Screenlines 122 6.4.5. Further analysis 122 7. Validation 128 7.1. Journey Time Validation 128 7.2. Secondary Validation Requirements 131 7.2.1. Time Profile 131 7.2.2. Level Crossings 131 7.2.3. Signal Operation 132 7.2.4. Visual Checks 134 7.2.5. Presentation of Results 135 7.3. Iterative Assignment Modelling 135 8. Mesoscopic Modelling 138 8.1. Assignment Type 139 8.1.1. Dynamic User Equilibrium (DUE) 139 8.1.2. One-Shot Dynamic Traffic Assignment 139 8.2. Hybrid Approach 140 9. Pedestrian Simulation 143 9.1. Data Collection Considerations 143 9.2. Software Expectations 144 9.3. Calibration 144 9.3.1. Design Considerations 146 9.3.2. Walking speed distribution 146 August 2019 Simulation Modelling Guidelines 9.3.3. Additional Factors for Model Calibration 148 9.4. Validation 150 10. Exploration of Options 153 10.1. Conformity 153 10.2. Future network development 153 10.3. Network Size 154 10.4. Signal Details 154 10.5. Time Profiles 156 10.6. Public Transport Planning 156 10.7. New Modes of Transport 157 10.8. Demand Growth 157 10.9. Exploring Performance Differences 158 10.10. Sensitivity Modelling 159 10.11. Pedestrian Planning 159 10.12. Reporting and Presentation 160 11. Analysis and Reporting 162 11.1. Model Analysis 163 11.1.1. Colour Schemes 163 11.1.2. Intersection performance 164 11.1.3. Motorway Performance 166 11.1.4. Arterial Road Performance 168 11.1.5. Network Productivity 169 11.1.6. Network Performance Metrics 170 11.1.7. Pedestrian Simulation Modelling Results 173 11.2. Model Presentation 179 11.3. Report Requirements 180 11.3.1. Structure 180 11.3.2. Suitability of Scale 180 11.3.3. Image and Table Requirements 181 11.4. Report Conclusion 185 12. Model Review Processes 187 12.1. Introduction 187 12.2. Structure 187 August 2019 Simulation Modelling Guidelines 12.3. Topics to be addressed 188 13. Glossary 191 14. Abbreviations 192 Appendix A – Seasonality Tables 193 Appendix B – Maximum Flow Figures 210 Appendix C – Report Example 213 August 2019 Simulation Modelling Guidelines Figures Figure 1: Transport Modelling Hierarchy used at VicRoads ..................................................................
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