community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/ Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 8 Issue #7 OEWATCH July 2018 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT CHINA’S DRONE SWARMS (pg. 21) EURASIA AFRICA 3 Tactical Air Defense Readiness in Russian Far East 29 Marawi Rehabilitation Progress Slows in the Philippines 51 The Pan-African Dream…Open Borders; the Reality… 4 Will the Terminator be Terminated? 30 Establishment of the Action Coalition for Thailand: Is this Increasing Border Disputes 5 Tracking Down Jihadists in the Arctic the Future Ruling Party? 52 Ethiopia Finally Accepts Border Demarcation, But Will a Strong 6 Sky-watching in the Cold 31 Controversy over Co-authored Book by Former Heads of ISI Peace with Eritrea Follow? 7 Upgrading Arctic Armor and RAW 53 Ethnic Conflict and Self-Defense in Mali 7 Railroad Improvements in the Arctic 54 Progress against al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s Furqan 8 Liquefied Natural Gas Terminal on Kamchatka Peninsula Brigade 9 Upgrading the Arctic Air Fleet MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA 55 A New Threat in Mozambique 9 Away All Boats! 32 Gaza’s Incendiary Kites 56 Nigerian Military Accused of Harassing Human Rights Accuser 10 A Recap of KADEX 2018 34 Khamenei: Muslim Unity only after Israel’s Destruction 57 Nigerian Army Confident in Returning IDPs Home 11 Azerbaijan’s Latest Weapons Acquisition 35 New Russian Push to Strengthen Syrian Army, Dissolve 58 With More “Black Gold” in Gulf of Guinea, More Pirates 12 Moscow’s Role in the Karabakh Conflict After the ‘Velvet Loyalist Militias 59 With Violent Protests Flaring, Can South Africa’s President Stem Revolution’ in Armenia 37 Turkey’s Military Observation Posts in Idlib the Economic Decline? 13 Ukraine and Moldova Increase Border Control Measures 38 Ramzan Kadyrov: Putin’s Bridge to Muslims in Syria and 60 China Marginalizes Taiwan in Africa 14 Russian Response to Polish “Threat” Beyond 15 The Kremlin’s Conference Bully Pulpit 39 Iranian Biomass Remote-Sensing Satellite Developed 16 Interview with “Discredited” Defense Minister 40 Iran’s Passive Defense Organization Establishes Space LATIN AMERICA 18 Proposal to Restore Veterans’ Benefits Policy 61 The Media War within the War—the Battle for Narrative in 19 The Russian PX System Turns 100 41 Group Planning to Hack Bank in Iran Arrested Mexico’s Cartel War 20 More Effective Military Training for College Students 41 Cyberspace Should Promote Religious Teaching 62 Mexican Cartel Expands Recruitment 42 Iran Cracks Down on Internet Café VPNs 63 Mothers’ Day Massacre in Nicaragua 43 Iranian Role in Turkish-Saudi Relations 64 Uruguay Faces New Security Issues Related to Regional Drug INDO-PACIFIC 44 Iran to Attend Russian Military Trade Show Trafficking 21 China Sets New Records for Aerial, Naval Drone Swarms 44 Iranian Trade with Iraq Hits $10 billion 65 The New Narco Profile in Colombia 23 Chinese Advancement in Hypersonic Aircraft 45 Who Took $30 Billion out of Iran? 66 Ivan Duque President Elect of Colombia 24 China’s Holistic Security Concept Explained 46 Iranian Supreme Leader Discusses Missiles 66 Polio in Venezuela 25 Cyber Sovereignty and the PRC’s Vision for Global Internet 47 Turkish Defense and Aviation Industry Performance Report 67 China’s Demand for Brazilian Food Products on the Rise Governance of 2017 27 Chinese Universities Begin Recruiting Undergraduates for 48 Turkish Troops Lay Siege on the Qandil Mountains AI Programs 50 Turkish-Greek Bilateral Migrant Readmission Agreement 28 China Confident in Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Suspended Antiterrorism Role approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, whose mission is to Understand, Describe, Deliver, and OEWATCH Assess the conditions of the Operational Foreign News & Perspectives Environment. For over 30 years, FMSO of the Operational Environment has conducted open source research Volume 8 | Issue 7 July | 2018 on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or unconsidered. Regional Analysts and Operational Environment Watch Expert Contributors provides translated selections and commentary from a diverse range Eurasia Nurlan Aliyev Ray Finch of foreign media that our analysts Les Grau and expert contributors believe will Robert Kurz give security professionals an added Matthew Stein dimension to their critical thinking Indo-Pacific Cindy Hurst about the Operational Environment. Matthew Stein Peter Wood Elliott Zaagman The views expressed in each article are those of Jacob Zenn the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department Middle East, North Africa Ihsan Gunduz of Defense, or the US Government. Release of this Michael Rubin information does not imply any commitment or intent Lucas Winter on the part of the US Government to provide any additional information on any topic presented herein. Africa Robert Feldman Jacob Zenn The appearance of hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the US Army of the referenced site Latin America Dodge Billingsley or the information, products, or services contained Geoff Demarest therein. Users should exercise caution in accessing Brenda Fiegel hyperlinks. The Operational Environment Watch is archived and available at: https://community.apan.org/wg/ tradoc-g2/fmso/. Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editor Matthew Stein Design Editor Lucas Winter ON THE COVER: Drone Swarm. Image Source: Derivative Work, based on By Halftermeyer [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], from Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Parrot_Airborne_MINIDRONE_flight_over_Alameda,_CA.JPG. EURASIA Tactical Air Defense Readiness in Russian Far East OE Watch Commentary: The Russian Pantsir S1 (Панцирь C1, NATO designation is the SA-22 Greyhound) is a relatively new system in Russia’s Far East. The missile system is a truck or track mounted, medium-range surface-to-air missile launcher and dual 30mm autocannon using phase array acquisition and tracking radar. It is designed to provide point air defense of important installations against aircraft, helicopters, precision munitions, cruise missiles and UAVs and as well as additional protection for air defense units from close range enemy air attacks. One of its main missions in the Eastern Military District is the protection of the S-400 (NATO designation SA-21 Growler) long range air defense missile sites. Also interesting is how they adapt to the unique terrain of the Kamchatka Peninsula to predict enemy air avenues of approach. End OE Watch Commentary (Grau) Source: “Pantsir Air Defense Missile and Source: Yuriy Rossolov, “Под прикрытием «Панциря» всегда спокойно (It Is Always Gun System Crews begin Alert Duty in Calm under the Cover of a Pantsir),” Krasnaya Zveda, 30 May 2018. http://redstar.ru/pod- Kamchatka,” Eastern Military District Press prikrytiem-pantsirya-vsegda-spokojno/ Service, 18 May 2018. eng.mil.ru/en/news_ A year has passed since several subunits of Pantsir-S air defense missile-gun systems went page/country/more.htm?id=12175976@ on combat alert to defend Kamchatka’s air borders. During this time, the scouts of the skies egnews have become quite proficient. Some successes and missions still need some more work. Combat crews of the Pantsir antiaircraft Bright multicolored balloons in the sky mean that someone has a joyful event: a wedding, missile and gun systems stationed on the the birth of a child, or another occasion…They can end up in the field of view of the air Kamchatka Peninsula have completed defense forces….”That is highly likely,” according to the Northeast Kamchatka Air Defense the preparation of hardware and entered Missile Regiment Pantsir-S1 Battalion Commander, Lieutenant-Colonel Oleg Afanasenko. upon air defense alert duty in accordance “We recently had such an incident. One of the crews that had gone on alert duty detected with the air defense rotation plan. In an air balloon and tracked it using all systems over the course of several dozen kilometers”. preparation, the crews passed theoretical This small “UAV” was most likely covered with foil, which reflected the signal…. and practical training; the technical servicing of air defense vehicles was …The latest air defense missile-gun complex is equipped with several detection and conducted; the readiness and functioning of guidance systems, which can back up each other. Therefore, the enemy doesn’t have a the assemblies, units, and combat modules chance of surreptitiously approaching the vehicle. of the hardware were checked; and missiles The picture is somewhat different in Kamchatka. The volcanic terrain relief complicates and gun ammunition was uploaded. Training the mission of the air defender. But, in Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Afanasenko’s words, “this included a road march from garrison to alert makes service more interesting. With a skilled approach, one can transform terrain features positions… into advantages. “Let’s assume that the enemy possesses intelligence data of the Pantsir-S1’s …Pantsir air defense missile and gun deployment location. From which side will he attack – from the one from which everything systems protect the facilities of troops is oriented toward, or from that side, where he will be able to approach the positions as and forces in Northeastern Russia and closely as possible, while remaining unnoticed by our radar or other detection systems?... the positions of S-400 Triumf surface-to- And in the event that an adversary is at an altitude that is beyond the reach of our weapon, air missile systems. Last year the Pantsir we have a ‘big brother’ – the S-400 air defense missile system. In short, by any measure, antiaircraft missile and gun system crews punishment will be inevitable for penetrating into our air defense missile regiment’s area of achieved an “excellent” rating in combat responsibility”… training firing on the Ashuluk state range and ..”We are totally integrated into the country’s PVO [air defense] System” – Lieutenant participated in various exercises and training Colonel Oleg Afanasenko stresses.