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CFA Institute Research Challenge 2018 Hosted by CFA Society Czech Republic Team I

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CFA Institute Research Challenge 2018 Hosted by CFA Society Czech Republic Team I CFA Institute Research Challenge 2018 Hosted by CFA Society Czech Republic Team I STRABAG SE Sector: Industrials Ticker: STR Industry: Construction & Engineering Exchange: Vienna Stock Exchange STRABAG : The new strategy will pay off Recommendation: Buy We issue a BUY recommendation on STRABAG with 1-year target price of EUR 42.2 per EUR 42.2 share representing 26% upside from its closing price of EUR 33.4 on 20th December 2017. To Target Price: (26% upside) estimate the target price, we used solely DCF model. Our recommendation is based on the following: EUR 33.4 Current Price: Favorable market conditions | The economic forecasts for the Company’s core market (as at 12/20/2017) suggest relatively stable growth in the future. Moreover, there are currently large investments into infrastructure in Germany and rest of the Europe from individual governments and the EU. These investments for expansion and modernization of infrastructure are expected to grow Target price estimation in the near future. Enterprise value 3 634 Industry trends | There is growing demand for energy efficient buildings, either newly Net cash/(Ned debt) 329 constructed or renovated. Especially the renovation sector is expected to grow, as the energy Equity value 3 963 efficient buildings are cheaper to operate and produce less emissions during operations. Another Shares outstanding (m) 102.6 ongoing industry trend is higher use of technology, either in form of 5D modelling (for planning Present value per share 38.6 and projecting) or in form of 3-D printing or usage of prefabricates and modules. The Company operates in all abovementioned areas therefore it has good potential of revenue streams from Upside 16% these segments. Price Target 42.2 STRABAG is fulfilling its strategy | Despite its relatively large D&A, the Company has Upside 26% managed to reach its target EBIT margin of at least 3%. This target is likely to be achieved again in 2017. Achieving this level of EBIT margin in the long-term is improbable, due to the return of economic conditions to normal. However, our EBIT margin estimate of 2% in the long run Figure 1: Financial Data is still above its 2012 level of 1.6%. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Comparative advantage | The Company is specific due to its policy of high investments into Rev. Growth -5.33% -4.54% 0.66% 5.19% -5.51% the PP&E, which brings it revenues from otherwise unattainable projects. Also, the own sources Gross Margin 33.75% 34.15% 34.36% 34.17% 36.10% EBIT Margin 1.60% 2.11% 2.26% 2.60% 3.43% of raw materials located all over the Europe give the Company an edge over its competitors. EPS 0.59 1.11 1.25 1.52 2.71 Third main comparative advantage is the Company’s robust cash position, which allows it to ROA 1.07% 1.52% 1.43% 1.76% 2.67% bid for the world’s largest projects. ROE 3.80% 5.50% 5.10% 6.20% 8.70% TIE 1) 2.1 2.6 2.6 3.2 4.1 Debt/Equity 2.54 2.67 2.58 2.69 2.51 1) Times interest earned calculated based on earnings Share Price Development before interest and taxes 50 Price Target - EUR 42.2 26% upside Figure 2: Market Data 40 Market Data as at 12/20/2017 Closing price (EUR) 33.4 Average price (100days) 35.4 30 Market Price - EUR 33.4 Avg. Daily Volume (100days) 11 548 as at 12/20/2017 As % of shares outstanding 0.011% 20 Shares O/S 102 599 997 Shares - Free Float 13 851 000 10 Market Cap. (EUR m) 3 709 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 STRABAG SE Team I 1 CFA Institute Research Challenge 2018 Figure 3: Primary Markets Business Description Rest of World; 6% STRABAG SE (VIE:STR, the “Company”) is European-based construction company Rest of headquartered in Vienna dating its origins back to 19th century. In 2016, its operations in over 80 Europe; 10% countries with about 72,000 employees resulted in revenues of EUR 12.4 billion and net income of EUR 282 million. The main markets are Germany and Austria (representing 62% of revenues), followed by CEE (together representing almost 85% of revenues in 2016). The entire Europe Germany; 46% represents 94% of revenues. CEE; 22% Operations | The Company offers its services along the entire construction industry value chain, such as: design, planning, raw materials, construction, facility management and demolitions. Operations are divided into three main segments: Building Construction & Civil Engineering, Austria; 16% Transportation Infrastructure and Special Divisions. Building Construction & Civil Engineering currently represents 37% of STRABAG’s revenues Source: Company data and includes construction of bridges, power plants, prefabricated elements, public buildings or water treatments. 55% of this segment’s revenues are generated through subcontractors. Figure 4: Production Segments Transportation Infrastructure represents about 37% of the Company’s revenues. The main contracts are related to road and railway construction, sewer engineering and waterway construction. International + In Transportation Infrastructure, subcontractors generate approximately 30% of the revenues. Special Divisions, Special Divisions of the Company includes services, PPP projects, tunneling, property & facility 23% services and real estate development. Representing the remaining 26% of the Company’s revenues, projects from Special Divisions are dispersed all over the globe (besides its main market, also in e.g. South + East, 30% North + West, Chile, Colombia or the US). 47% In 2016, 66% of all revenues were generated by public sector and the remaining 34% by private customers. Geographically speaking, 47% of revenues come from countries of northern and western Europe with average EBIT margin of 2.9%, around 30% of revenues comes from southern and eastern Europe with average EBIT margin of 4.8%. The remaining 23% of revenues are generated Source: Company data by international and Special Divisions projects, where the average EBIT margin is only 1.8%. The Company does not have significant exposure to any specific project as its largest project represents Figure 5: Business Segments only 2.2% of total order backlog. The Company’s main strategy can be summarized in 3 following pillars: Project development Construction & Concessions; 2% Materials; 5% Diversification and risk management | Regional and operational diversification is the key International Tunnelling; element of the Company’s strategy. 10 largest projects combined represent only 19% of total order 9% backlog and in 2016, the Company operated on more than 12 thousand construction sites. On the other hand, with almost half of 2016 revenues coming from Germany, the Company is heavily reliant Construction & Services; Civil on the situation in the German market. 10% Engineering; 37% Common risk in construction industry is the long duration of individual projects, so in the meantime the costs may increase which lowers the project’s profitability. The Company reduces this risk by Transportation Infrastructure; using cost + fee contracts, contracts with cost escalation clauses and by having its own sources of 37% construction materials. The contract-related methods of reducing risk are common among the Company’s competitors, however having own significant sources of construction materials is rather Source: Company data occasional. Focus on profitability not growth | Since 2012, the Company has been systematically attempting to get above 3% EBIT margin, rather than grow in revenues. It should be mentioned that EBIT Figure 6: EBIT margin across construction industry fluctuates around 3.5%, however the Company has 450 397 proportionally very high D&A which is pushing the EBIT margin down. The reasons and aspects 341 of high D&A will be discussed later in the analysis. 282 300 262 In 2016, the Company’s EBIT margin reached 3.2% (adjusted for non-operating profit) and the 3.2% 207 long-term target is to generate EBIT margin of at least 3%. According to the Company’s interim 2.6% 2.3% results, the margin in 2017 should be around 3.5%. This improvement in profitability was caused 150 2.1% 1.6% mostly by rejecting low profitability projects, which was enabled by the current favorable conditions on the construction market, but the long-term sustainability of the margins is uncertain. 0 Nevertheless, thanks to the several Company’s comparative advantages (as described further in the 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 STRABAG SE Team I 2 CFA Institute Research Challenge 2018 Figure 7: Construction Index analysis), we believe that the improved performance will at least partially endure and will help the Company survive major economic downturns in the future should such situation arise. 130 120 Innovation | The Company is among the pioneers of 5D modelling in the CEE region, while most firms already use this technology in its core market (i.e. Germany and Austria). The reason for the 110 Company’s technological advantage in CEE is that it started relatively early with its research and 100 development. This technology can generate profits through cost savings and improved management 90 and project delivery. 5D also allows to cut building’s operational costs and energy demands, which 2010=100 80 represent a significant added value to the customer as about 70% of the building’s costs is incurred 2005 2007 2010 2012 2015 2017 during its operational lifetime. EU28 Germany Austria CEE Source: Eurostat, 2017 Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning The entire construction industry is cyclical and linked to government spending, private investments Figure 8: Sector Output and performance of overall economy. Construction output in Europe began to decline quite 120 dramatically with the economic and financial crisis. In total, the production index in construction sector in Germany and Austria lost almost 15 percentage points.
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