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Population, Housing and Employment Forecast Update and Land Needs Assessment Haldimand County ______ Population, Housing and Employment Forecast Update and Land Needs Assessment Haldimand County ________________________ Final Report Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 905-272-3600 June 26, 2019 [email protected] Table of Contents Page Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... i 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Terms of Reference ................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 What is a Municipal Comprehensive Review? ........................................ 1-2 1.3 Background ............................................................................................. 1-2 1.3.1 Haldimand County – Local and Regional Growth Context ......... 1-2 2. Policy Context .................................................................................................. 2-1 2.1 Provincial Policy Statement .................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe ..................................... 2-1 2.3 Land Needs Assessment Methodology................................................... 2-7 2.4 Draft Guidance Documents ..................................................................... 2-8 3. Haldimand County Urban Land Supply ......................................................... 3-1 3.1 Haldimand County Total Urban Housing Supply Potential ...................... 3-2 3.2 Housing Intensification Potential ............................................................. 3-4 3.3 Designated Lands in the Greenfield Area by Urban Area ....................... 3-6 3.3.1 Potential Community Land Supply by Urban Area ..................... 3-6 3.4 Haldimand County Employment Area ..................................................... 3-9 3.4.1 Potential Employment Land Supply by Urban Area ................. 3-10 4. Haldimand County Long-Term Forecast: Population, Housing and Employment ..................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Haldimand County Population and Housing Forecast ............................ 4-1 4.2 Haldimand County Population and Housing Growth Allocations ............. 4-1 4.3 Housing Forecast by Planning Policy Area ............................................ 4-4 4.4 Haldimand County Employment Forecast............................................... 4-9 4.4.1 County-Wide Employment Forecast by Sector .......................... 4-9 4.4.2 Haldimand County Rural and Urban Employment Base .......... 4-11 4.4.3 County-Wide Employment Forecast by Area ........................... 4-15 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\Haldimand County\2018 DC & Growth Forecast\Growth\Report\Haldimand County Population, Housing and Employment Forecast Update and Land Needs Assessment - Final Report.docx Table of Contents (Cont’d) Page 4.5 Haldimand County Employment Growth Allocations ............................. 4-17 5. Haldimand County Land Needs Analysis ...................................................... 5-1 5.1 Haldimand County Community Land Needs Analysis ............................. 5-1 5.1.1 D.G.A Community Lands - Existing Conditions .......................... 5-1 5.1.2 D.G.A Community Lands Density Trends .................................. 5-2 5.1.3 Population and Community Area Employment Forecast in the D.G.A. .................................................................................. 5-4 5.1.4 Designated Greenfield Community Area Land Need, 2041 ....... 5-5 5.2 Community Land Needs Analysis by Urban Area ................................... 5-7 5.3 Haldimand County Employment Land Needs Analysis ........................... 5-9 5.3.1 Urban Employment Area Existing Conditions ............................ 5-9 5.3.2 Urban Employment Land Density, 2018 to 2041 ...................... 5-10 5.3.3 Urban Employment Land Demand, 2018 to 2041 .................... 5-11 5.3.4 Urban Employment Land Needs 2041 ..................................... 5-12 5.4 Urban Employment Land Needs Analysis by Urban Area, 2018 to 2041 ...................................................................................................... 5-13 5.4.1 Employment Area Forecast by Urban Area, 2018 to 2041 ....... 5-13 5.4.2 Urban Employment Land Needs by Urban Area, 2041 ............ 5-14 6. Forecast Comparison with Previous 2014 Update ....................................... 6-1 7. Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 7-1 7.1 Haldimand County Long-Term Growth Outlook ...................................... 7-1 7.2 Community Area Land Needs, 2041 ....................................................... 7-2 7.3 Employment Area Land Needs, 2041 ..................................................... 7-3 Appendix A Haldimand County Summary of Potential Housing Units ................ A-1 Appendix B Haldimand County Summary of Designated Lands in Greenfield Areas and Employment Areas .................................................... B-1 Appendix C Haldimand County Components of Population Growth ................... C-1 Appendix D Haldimand County Long-Term Forecast: Population, Housing and Employment ............................................................................................. D-1 Appendix E Employment Land Survey .....................................................................E-1 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\Haldimand County\2018 DC & Growth Forecast\Growth\Report\Haldimand County Population, Housing and Employment Forecast Update and Land Needs Assessment - Final Report.docx List of Acronyms and Abbreviations Acronym Full Description of Acronym B.U.A. Built-up area C.M.A. Census metropolitan area D.G.A. Designated greenfield area G.G.H. Greater Golden Horseshoe G.I.S. Geographic information systems G.M.S. Growth Management Strategy G.T.A. Greater Toronto Area G.T.H.A. Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area L.N.A. Land Needs Assessment M.C.R. Municipal comprehensive review M.T.S.A. Major Transit Station Area O.P. Official Plan O.P.A. Official Plan Amendment P.P.S. Provincial Policy Statement P.P.U. persons per unit P.S.E.Z. Provincially Significant Employment Zone U.G.C. Urban Growth Centre Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\Haldimand County\2018 DC & Growth Forecast\Growth\Report\Haldimand County Population, Housing and Employment Forecast Update and Land Needs Assessment - Final Report.docx Executive Summary Executive Summary Terms of Reference Haldimand County retained Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson) in the spring of 2018 to undertake an update to the County’s 2014 Population, Household and Employment Forecast Update.1 As part of the terms of reference, a comprehensive assessment of urban land requirements has also been undertaken by Watson based on the revised long-term growth forecast. This urban land needs assessment has been prepared in accordance with the requirements of the Growth Plan, 2019 and the provincial Land Needs Assessment (L.N.A.) Methodology.2, 3 In summary, the key objectives of this study are as follows: • To prepare a detailed long-term population, housing and employment growth forecast for Haldimand County as per Schedule 3 of Growth Plan, 2019;4 • To review and assess the distribution of the County-wide population, housing and employment forecast by urban and rural area based on recent and anticipated development trends; and • To assess the County’s long-term urban land requirements in accordance with the framework of the Growth Plan, 2019 and Haldimand County Official Plan (O.P.), 2009, regarding residential intensification and greenfield density targets. The results of this analysis are intended to guide decision-making and policy development specifically related to planning and growth management, urban land needs, municipal finance and infrastructure planning carried out for Haldimand County. More specifically, this growth forecast update will be used as background to the County’s O.P. Review and 2019 Development Charges (2019 D.C.) Background Study.5 1 Haldimand County Population, Households and Employment Forecast Update, 2011- 2041, prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., April 4, 2014. 2 A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. 2019. Ontario. 3 Lands Needs Methodology for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, May 2018. 4 It is noted that for the purpose of this study, the Haldimand County population, housing and employment forecast has been extended to the year 2046. 5 Development Charges Background Study, Haldimand County, prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., March 5, 2019. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE i H:\Haldimand County\2018 DC & Growth Forecast\Growth\Report\Haldimand County Population, Housing and Employment Forecast Update and Land Needs Assessment - Final Report.docx The process of preparing the County’s new O.P. represents a Municipal Comprehensive Review (M.C.R.), in accordance with section 26 of the Planning Act. The analysis provided herein represents a component of the County’s M.C.R., as per provincial requirements and supporting guidance documents, and includes the following key technical inputs: • Long-Term Population, Housing and Employment Forecast; • Residential Supply and Intensification Analysis; • Designated Greenfield Area Density Analysis; • Employment Land Needs Analysis; and • Community Land
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