FROM SYSTEM SHOCK TO SYSTEM CHANGE- TIME TO TRANSFORM THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABILITY FROM SYSTEM SHOCK TO SYSTEM CHANGE - TIME TO TRANSFORM 1 Forum for the Future is a leading international sustainability non-profit with offices in London, New York, Singapore and Mumbai. We specialise in addressing critical global challenges by catalysing change in key systems. For over 20 years, we’ve been working in partnership with business, governments and civil society to accelerate the shift toward a sustainable future. Together we are reinventing the way the world works. Find out more at www.forumforthefuture.org Publication date: October 2020 © 2020 Forum for the Future WITH THANKS TO OUR PARTNERS: FROM SYSTEM SHOCK TO SYSTEM CHANGE - TIME TO TRANSFORM 2 CONTENTS WHAT NEXT: EMERGING TRAJECTORIES.................34 INTRODUCTION.................................................................4 COMPETE & RETREAT.............................................36 KEY DYNAMICS DEFINING THE 2020s.................6 DISCIPLINE..................................................................39 BIOSPHERE BREAKDOWN.............................8 TRANSFORM...............................................................42 ECONOMIC CRISIS & REFORM.................14 UNSETTLED..................................................................45 TECH & GOVERNANCE NEXUS.................19 DESIGNING FOR TRANSFORMATION.......................48 EQUITABLE TRANSITIONS..........................24 TIME TO TRANSFORM: CONCLUSION.......................49 REGENERATIVE OPENINGS........................29 APPENDIX: OUR APPROACH..........................................54 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......................................................55 FROM SYSTEM SHOCK TO SYSTEM CHANGE - TIME TO TRANSFORM 3 INTRODUCTION We live in times of great disruption. Indeed, COVID-19 can in many ways best be seen In this report, we explore some of the key dynamics Our lives are changing in ways we could as an early-warning sign: a symptom, not a cause, that lie at the heart of these transitions. And we not have imagined less than a year ago. of such large-scale disruption. This is in part ask how we can make active choices now that will And many of the certainties on which we because it was almost certainly triggered by human transform our future prospects by embedding, at the have built our collective response to encroachment on forests, highlighting once again the heart of our strategies and plans, the realisation that sustainability challenges, as well as the intimate relationship between planetary health and a fundamentally different model is needed. A model social and governance structures that human health. But also because it demonstrates how that puts people’s wellbeing and planetary health underpin the systems we rely on, are vulnerable our supposedly sophisticated civilisation first, as the overriding imperatives. being challenged. is to such shocks – and how much needs to change if we are to put it on a genuinely sustainable path. Planetary health is not separate to human wellbeing. Assumptions we made then about the likely The two are intricately intertwined. In order to trajectories of the coming decade towards 2020 has exposed the inequality that is deeply achieve the just, resilient and truly sustainable world sustainability have been thrown up into the air embedded in our social and economic structures, we want we advocate a regenerative approach – by the impact of COVID-19. And the pieces don’t from the institutional racism targeted by Black enhancing the underlying capacity of all individuals, look like falling back into place anytime soon. Lives Matter, to the imbalance in global supply communities and ecosystems, to be healthy, to keep chains which has seen millions of factory workers evolving, and fulfilling their potential. and informal workers in the global South lose their livelihood overnight as lockdowns arrived. The COVID-19: recession catalysed by the impacts of COVID-19 looks Early warning sign of shocks to come set to roll back decades of investment in human capital and poverty reduction. On the surface, this may seem like a bolt from the blue, unrelated to all the other pressing The 2020s could see us transition concerns that were focusing our minds – such as into a world of ever more the impact of technology and automation on A decade of transitions destabilising shocks, or business and jobs, economic models that entrench towards a reconfiguration of inequalities, and the growing threats of climate The coming decade will be one of transitions the systems we rely on based change and ecosystem collapse. – for good or ill. How we respond to COVID-19 – on goals of equity, sustainability particularly how governments spend their and resilience. Scratch the surface, though, and it’s clear that trillions – will shape our destiny going forward. the pandemic, far from being an outlier, is rather The 2020s could see us transition into a world a harbinger of the sort of shocks to the systems of ever more destabilising shocks, or towards a we rely on which we can expect in the years to come, reconfiguration of the systems we rely on based as climate change and other disruptions take hold. on goals of equity, sustainability and resilience. FROM SYSTEM SHOCK TO SYSTEM CHANGE - TIME TO TRANSFORM 4 ‘Building forward’ for a just and regenerative world This approach is particularly relevant to the ‘build back better’ response to the economic and social consequences of COVID-19. A just and regenerative approach here is not so much about ‘building back’ – that implies a return to a modified version of what went before, on a pathway to further depletion, and ever more vulnerable to the next crises. ‘Building forward’ means fundamental shifts in what we define as important, and in the goals of our systems – away from the current economic model, and towards a distributive one that has the principles of social equity and a just transition to a zero-carbon future at its heart. Central to these shifts is people working in alignment with living systems themselves and their own powers of regeneration. It is about recognising that the shocks to our systems we are experiencing are not isolated events, but part of a wider systemic breakdown across human society and the wider ecosystem. It is about seizing the opportunity for effecting real, lasting change at that systemic level, right across the board. Putting that into practice will mean making some radical changes in the way we do business, shape policy, and live our lives. That makes it our greatest challenge. But within it lies our greatest hope. FROM SYSTEM SHOCK TO SYSTEM CHANGE - TIME TO TRANSFORM 5 WHAT WE’RE SEEING NOW KEY DYNAMICS SHAPING THE 2020s For many years, Forum for the Future has mapped emerging trends across society, the economy and the natural world, and EQUITABLE explored what their implications might be TRANSITIONS for the prospects of a sustainable future. ECONOMIC CRISIS & REFORM Trends, of course, do not act in isolation; they interact, and change each other. It is a complex picture, and one which this year we have tried to capture more systemically. Rather than simply REGENERATIVE OPENINGS tracking individual trends and their interaction, we have instead sought to understand how a whole cluster of trends can combine together to produce a really dramatic impact on the world; one which can shift whole systems. We refer to these as Dynamics, and we have identified the five in this report as being critical to the transitions under way over the coming decade. They do not, of course, operate in isolation. They themselves are each part of a living, evolving system. For more detail on how we identified these Dynamics, please see Appendix: Our Approach. BIOSPHERE BREAKDOWN TECH & GOVERNANCE NEXUS FROM SYSTEM SHOCK TO SYSTEM CHANGE - TIME TO TRANSFORM 6 WHAT NEXT EMERGING TRAJECTORIES THAT WILL SHAPE OUR FUTURE The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an Transform: Planetary health and extraordinary moment of discontinuity that human wellbeing come first, and are will profoundly affect how these Dynamics interconnected. Deep change to reset the play out over the coming decade. system is possible, desirable and happening. We can’t go back to ‘before’. The degree of systemic change and uncertainty COVID-19 has brought is altering the deepest levels Unsettled: There might not ever be a of our assumptions, values and worldviews. From ‘new normal’. The world is now strange and our systems work, we know that the deepest changes volatile beyond all previous human experience. come from shifts at these levels, because they allow Previous ways of thinking are not helpful now. the shifting of the foundational narratives that we use to make sense of the world, to order our societies, These trajectories and their underlying mindsets and to organise collective action. help us to understand what possible futures are open to us and the role we might play in creating To help navigate this extraordinary time, and them. They are intimately connected to each of to help us understand what this might mean the Dynamics, and to the positive and negative for the Dynamics for the decade ahead, we have trends we will see emerge for the health of our identified four broad trajectories emerging out planet, the equitable transitions we are seeking of the COVID-19 discontinuity, characterised by in our societies, and the future of our economy. narratives that arise from very different basic sets of assumptions and mindsets: As you read this report we