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Imperatives of Transformation: Changing Character of Conflict in the Emerging World Order

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Imperatives of Transformation: Changing Character of Conflict in the Emerging World Order Imperatives of Transformation: Changing Character of Conflict in the Emerging World Order V K Ahluwalia The character of war in the 21st century has changed, and if we fail to keep pace with the speed of war, we will lose the ability to compete. — General Joe Dunford, 19th Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, 20171 Introduction It is extremely difficult to crystal-gaze and predict the future with certainty. In hindsight, one can say that the rapid changes in the geo-political, economic, social, cultural and technological domains have had a profound impact on the emerging geo-strategic environment. With a plethora of disruptive technologies, the unknown effects of emerging technologies, asymmetric threats and the revolution in autonomous systems and communications, the global environment has been in a state of continuous change and flux. Resultantly, the envisaged threats and challenges to national security, both traditional and non-traditional, have also undergone significant change. The complexities of which need to be analysed in order to formulate the future course of action. Factors such as external security threats, religious and ethnic extremism, population growth and unemployment, societal tensions, severe competition for natural resources, climate change and environmental degradation are likely to ensure that Lieutenant General (Dr) VK Ahluwalia (Retd) is the Director of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies. CLAWS Journal l Summer 2019 21 V K AHLUWALIA armed conflicts will persist, perhaps with greater intensity. To say so, in a large number of cases, trans-national neighbouring forces and non-state actors have been indulging in abetting insurgencies, terrorism, violence and organised crime, thus, perpetuating instability and conflicts. The great powers such as the United States (US), China and Russia, continue to compete fiercely for gaining advantage in the political, economic, technological and strategic domains, causing a spillover effect on the stability and security of regions and countries at large. Therefore, the affected regional groups and countries must certainly review the threats and challenges to their national security. Given this context, although it is difficult to predict the future, it becomes imperative to determine the future course of action for the Indian armed forces. Wherein, prudence lies in examining the envisaged threats and challenges. In doing so, the article seeks to examine the emerging strategic environment under three aspects: first, the emerging world order; second, the changing character of conflict which is closely associated with the nature of war/conflict; and, third, the internal, external and hybrid threats and challenges to national security in the Indian context. This three-fold assessment will then help provide possible answers to whether India needs to carry out some reforms in terms of modernisation or transformation of the armed forces and its security apparatus. Balance of Power and Concept of Polarity The concept of polarity is an important aspect of the emerging world order. It is a key determinant of the balance of power, which enables us to analyse the influence of a state at the global as well as regional level. In simple terms, polarity refers to the ways in which ‘power’ is distributed in the international system, that defines the balance of power as being unipolar, bipolar or multipolar in nature. Fundamentally, it refers to the influence of a nation over others because of its economic, military, political, cultural and diplomatic power. In the current environment, it 22 CLAWS Journal l Summer 2019 IMPERATIVES OF TRANSFORMATION may be prudent to add factors such as technological advancement and culture of innovations that provide extra leverage and influence over other nations. To add, the geo-strategic location of a country and its natural resources are also argued to exert influence on others. On balance, it may perhaps be correct to say that the status of the Comprehensive National Power (CNP) of a country would be a major factor that provides extra leverage to influence other nation(s).2 In International Relations (IR), the concept of polarity remains highly debated. Kenneth Waltz, in his seminal work Theory of International Politics specifies that a “stable world precludes unipolarity” (Waltz, 1979).3 However, Waltz’s theory was proved wrong within 12 years when a unipolar world came into effect. Similarly, in assessing a bipolar world, a number of scholars agree that a bipolar world is likely to be more stable, wherein, the nation states tend to align themselves with a bigger power, for reasons like ideology, survival, appeasement and taking care of their national interests. Madeleine Albright, former US Secretary of State had posited that the economic integration of the world was already leading to a multipolar world. Subsequently, according to reports published by the US intelligence in 2008, it was reiterated that the world is likely to head towards multipolarity in the next two decades. However, it is well established that the economy alone, though a vital component, does not have the power to influence other nations. Recently, Shiv Shankar Menon, former Foreign Secretary of India, suggested “strategic autonomy” as the way forward for India, and that we should adjust to the fast changing balance of power and correlation of forces around us.4 While considering our threats and capabilities, we must remember that India, as on date, is heavily dependent on energy (hydrocarbons), high technology and defence equipment from other countries. This makes it imperative for India to achieve self-reliance mainly in the latter two fields, to emerge as an undisputed regional power. CLAWS Journal l Summer 2019 23 VK AHLUWALIA Whether the world moves to a unipolar or bipolar or to a multipolar order, the transition would certainly witness a certain amount of flux and instability. It does not refer only to geo-political volatility but also instability in the economy, investment and trade. Likewise, violent non-state actors and state-sponsored terrorism may become more active, leading to further volatility. As the 2019 World Economic Forum suggested, a new multipolar order, with the US and China at its centre, is the new reality, however, with this shift from a unipolar to a multipolar reality, the international system itself would be exposed to profound instability.5 Emerging New World Order No truly global “World Order” has ever existed. — Henry Kissenger, World Order, 20146 To analyse the emerging world order, it becomes imperative to understand the changing dynamics in the regional and global environments— particularly the developments in West Asia and North Africa (WANA), North Korea, South Asia, China and Russia—as also the security threats and the flashpoints in different regions. Some of the recent events that bear testimony to an uncertain and complex global environment are; the US pullout from the multi-layered Iranian nuclear deal called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and reimposition of sanctions on Iran; the US sanctions on Russia; the US-China trade war and China’s efforts to offset the trade imbalance; the US pull-out from the Paris climate change agreement, and threats to move out of the World Trade Organisation (WTO); and the expected turmoil due to Brexit. West Asia has remained unstable due to the rivalry for regional dominance, intra- regional armed conflicts, civil wars, sectarian and ethnic conflicts, religious fundamentalism, criminal networks and drug trafficking—making the region highly volatile. 24 CLAWS Journal l Summer 2019 IMPERATIVES OF TRANSFORMATION In addition, the world has also witnessed large fluctuations in oil prices, and the financial crises in Venezuela, Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. Venezuela, with the largest proven oil reserves, has been affected by economic and political crises. Two important events relating to Saudi Arabia—the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the colossal humanitarian crisis in Yemen post the Saudi-led offensives—have affected the stability in the region. President Trump’s announcement to pull out US troops from Afghanistan and Syria, followed by another statement that he agreed “100 per cent” with maintaining a small troop presence in Syria, has added to the complexity of the situation. The US has made an all-out effort to bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table, to stabilise the situation and to pull out its troops. However, amongst all this is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), covering different sectors and regions, and its likely impact has caught the attention of all stakeholders—political leaders, economists, political scientists and the strategic communities at large. In response to the US “terrorism designation” of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s Parliament overwhelmingly approved a Bill labelling the US forces in West Asia as terrorists.7 However, the positive trends in 2017-19 were the success against the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria (especially the March 22, 2019, victory against the IS in Baghouz, Syria), and the two rounds of talks—though unsuccessful—on the Korean peninsula peace process. These developments in the global scenario reflect the emerging unstable world. Major Global Trends It is a noted fact that the end of World Wars I and II had brought in innovative-cum-revolutionary power shifts at the global level. However, in the present time, given that the states are equipped with nuclear weapons, the world is less likely to witness any such major shifts—suggesting that the probability of total wars between the great powers in the future is rather CLAWS Journal l Summer 2019 25 VK AHLUWALIA low. However, one cannot dismiss the power shifts that are happening at various levels, even without indulging in wars or conflicts. Given the preeminence of the US in the global order, it has continued to be the sole superpower for the last three decades, primarily because it is leading the world in the economy, military power, science, technology and innovations.
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