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Unfolding the Upstream Reform Unfolding the upstream reform Background and reform momentum 2 Opportunities for investment 6 Challenges and best practice 8 Office locations 10 02 Welcome to our second issue of China oil and gas reform series. In the first issue, we went through the reform tasks and their implications throughout the value chain. The second issue will focus on upstream reform, which aims to put diversified industry players on equal footing with national oil companies for upstream exploration and development. The hope is that reforms will introduce private and foreign companies to engage in China's upstream business with fresh investment under a more relaxed business environment and more partners can be attracted to production sharing contract. 1 Unfolding the upstream reform | Background and reform momentum Background and reform momentum State oil companies face challenges in activities caused a seven-year low of boosting production while struggling oil production with190 million tonnes with higher development cost and (3.85 million barrels) per day, down 6% reduced development activities. from 20161. Their recent discoveries are low permeability and take expensive However, given the expectations technologies to develop. Therefore, of higher oil prices and a more national oil companies had to shelve tense geopolitics environment, the the exploration and development of government is keen to stabilize reserves with complex geology and output. shut down wells with high lifting cost in 2017. The downsized production 1. "Country's crude output falls to seven-year low", Upstream, 2018-01-26 2 Unfolding the upstream reform | Background and reform momentum Figure1: China crude oil production declining China Crude Oil Production 4,400 4% y 4,200 2% a d r e 4,000 0% p s l e 3,800 -2% r r a b 3,600 -4% 0 0 0 1 3,400 -6% 3,200 -8% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f Source: EIU Figure 2: China natural gas demand & supply China Natural Gas Demand & Supply 250,000 200,000 e o t 150,000 K 100,000 50,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f Natural gas consumption (ktoe) Natural gas production (ktoe) Source: EIU 3 Unfolding the upstream reform | Background and reform momentum Traditionally, the government open up the upstream sector to help In addition to the Opinions, several distributed upstream blocks based sustain energy supply, encourage pieces of legislation have been on applications from the four state- qualified market players to participate issued in regard to the granting of owned oil companies. The existing oil in exploration and development mineral rights (Figure 3). In general, exploration and mining rights granting of conventional oil and gas, and the government will promote system is far from sufficient and it ultimately create a market that is led competitive granting and reduce the has become a priority for oil and gas by state-owned oil companies but mineral resources allocated through upstream reform. with the participation of diversified agreements or other administrative investors. The new granting methods to promote the competition China announced the oil and gas mechanism will involve licensing in natural resources exploration and reform master plan ("the Opinions") upstream block through a tendering development. in May 2017. It indicated that it would system and their relinquishment upon the expiry of the exploration period. Figure 3: Newly issued legislations regarding mineral rights granting Date Title Content (mineral rights) • Mineral rights holders must pay the competent Programme on the Reform of the authorities the mineral rights granting bonus for obtaining April 2017 Mineral Resources Equity Benefit such rights, occupancy fee, and the resource tax for sale System of mineral products • Licensing upstream block through a tendering system Opinions on Deepen Oil and Gas • Establishing the oil and gas mineral rights granting system May 2017 System Reform • Oil and gas mineral rights relinquishment upon the expiry of exploration period • Requiring competent authorities to implement tender, auction and listing methods to grant mineral rights • Imposing strict restrictions on the granting of mineral Mineral Rights Granting System Reform rights via agreements June 2017 Programme • MLR delegates partial mineral rights approval powers to provincial level competent departments • Six regions including Shanxi, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Guizhou & Xinjiang will be the pilot for two years • Amount of the bonus will depend on the results of the Interim Administrative Measures for the tender, auction or listing for the mining rights obtained July 2017 Collection of Income Derived from the through competitive granting Mining Rights Granting • The bonus can be paid in annual instalments to reduce the burden on mineral rights holders Source: State Council, Ministry of Land and Resources, Deloitte analysis 4 Unfolding the upstream reform | Background and reform momentum To date, Chinese national oil Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR), companies have been reluctant to via its local outfit Xinjiang Land and relinquish blocks that lack commercial Resources Administration, listed five discovers, even after the exploration blocks in Tarim basin in Xinjiang and period is over. We expect this will sold three of them to three non-state change and we are seeing a break of oil companies in January. Shenergy state monopoly with the auction of oil Co.,Ltd, Xinjiang Energy (Group) and gas blocks in Xinjiang. Co., Ltd and Zhongman Petroleum & Natural Gas Group Corporation China plans to auction about 30 oil (ZPEC) managed to secured the rights and gas blocks in the north-west to explore the Keping South block, region of Xinjiang in 2018 to non- covering 2,646 square kilometres, the state investors to boost private Wensu West block, with 1,504 square participation in the sector. kilometres, and the Wensu block covering 1,096 square kilometres, committing to invest more than 2.7 billion yuan during the five- year exploration period. The total transaction price was more than 2.7 billion yuan (421 million U.S. dollars). 2 2. "Oil, gas exploration rights sold in Xinjiang", Xinhua, 2018-01-24, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/24/c_136919028.htm 5 Unfolding the upstream reform | Opportunities for investment Opportunities for investment This wave of reform will introduce Three types of oil and gas companies new opportunities for the industry are be expected to gain access to to integrate and reallocate exploration of onshore conventional existing resources. This should oil and gas, thus gaining new result in the anticipated domestic opportunities for development: restructuring as well as inbound Provincial SOEs located in M&A opportunities for the industry. oil and gas resources-rich With the comprehensive and in- provinces; depth promotion of China's oil and gas system reform and economic Private oil and gas companies restructuring, more preeminent who owns overseas assets enterprises are expected to emerge in with overseas exploration China's oil and gas sector. experience; And oil service companies with domestic oil field service experience. 6 Unfolding the upstream reform | Opportunities for investment Limited by traditional mineral rights intensive industry. Their ability to registration system and restricted oil identify a niche in an increasingly and gas exploration and development competitive and market-oriented qualifications that were almost environment after the reform will be monopolized by the oil heavyweights the key issue they face going forward. in the past, private capital and To achieve the goals, mergers and provincial SOEs have been struggling acquisitions, consolidation and to make an impact in the upstream restructuring might be a viable option sector of China. This is part of the for them to be competitive with reason many private capitals have the "Big Three" (CNPC, Sinopec and turned their attention to overseas CNOOC). resources located in Central Asia, South America, Africa and etc.. On the other hand, in the context of reform, large SOEs also face In addition to the provincial SOEs, challenges. Under the intrinsic oilfield service companies may also need of continuously improving benefit from this reform. The oilfield efficiency, downsizing and efficiency services market has long been the enhancement have become a crucial focus of private capital, however, demand for the Big Three. Integration due to the distressed global oil and reorganization of existing price of the recent years, the profit resources as well as introducing margin of oilfield service companies private capital will form part of the has been squeezed year by year. approach for traditional state-owned These companies also have internal enterprises to boost competitiveness motivations to step into the upstream and efficiency. business of oil and gas exploration and development projects to extend Also, foreign oil and gas companies their business prospect in the may be expected to participate in upstream sector in order to improve the exploration and development financial performance. of conventional resources by means of setting up joint ventures with With the gradual reforming of policies, domestic players beyond the current these aforementioned companies collaborative model However, are expected to be more active and considering China's complex involved in the domestic upstream geological conditions and limited oil market. These three types of players and gas resources, in addition to the have their own specialities in the
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