Taiwan's Transport Development Strategies During Challenging

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

Taiwan’s Transport Development Strategies during Challenging Economic Time

Wu-Cheng Chen Hisjen Wu Professor and Dean Ph.D. student College of Management Department of Traffic and Transportation Chung Hua University National Chiao Tung University No. 707, Sec. 2, Wufu Rd., Hsinchu, 300 No. 240, Dun-Hua North Road, Taipei, 105 Taiwan, R.O.C. Taiwan, R.O.C. Fax:+886-3-5182117 Fax:+886-2-25450429 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: In January 2009, the global economy seemed to be in a recession. However, a crisis is a chance. Taiwan’s Government took some innovative actions with the effects of transportation to the land use and the energy use for sustainable development in the hope that the economy of Taiwan will rise. Taiwan’s Government will invest NT$500 billion to tick up domestic demand over the next four years. The SWOT method is used to analyze the strategies of transportation. The strategies for Taiwan transport in the future and conclusions are reported in the article. Recently, the global economy seemed to be in a changing condition.

Key Words: economic growth, SWOT, transportation strategy

1. INTRODUCTION Recently, the global economy has faced to severe slowdown and recessions. However, the crisis is a chance. Various countries, such as U.S.A, Mainland China, Japan, and Taiwan, are striving to stabilize or stimulate the national economic growth by all means. For example, U.S. President Obama has worked with the Congress to deal with the financial crisis. Now, it comes up positive sign. Taiwan does same thing, R.O.C. President Ma Ying-jeou and his Cabinet took some measures, such as Love-Taiwan 12 Projects, consumption vouchers, and so on, in order to simulate our economy. It is apparent that the improvements of national economy to give better living become the global trend and an urgent goal. How to achieve this goal in Taiwan is an important issue. This paper will discuss about the issue and its relationship with the transportation developments strategies.

Transportation plays an essential role in the national economy developments. This paper will look back our experience on transportation developments and its multiple effects on our economical developments. While the major thrust of this article is the presentation of the future strategies for Taiwan transport, we will also examine the economic trend, the transport development, and the economic challenges of Taiwan. Since it is significant to express a strong relationship with the economy and the transportation, we will first show the overall economic trend of Taiwan in Section 2. Then, the development of the transportation in Taiwan reported in Section 3. The serious challenges of Taiwan economy are shown in Section 4. Later, we use a planning method, SWOT, to present the future strategies for Taiwan transport in Section 5. Last, the authors bring a fitting conclusion in Section 6.

2. TAIWAN OVERALL ECONOMIC TREND

In this article, we described briefly Taiwan’s economic growth, unemployment rate and labor Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009 force participation rate, the monitoring indicators and domestic investment. Those descriptions are shown as follows (Council for Economic Planning and Development, 2009a).

(1) Economic growth Table 1 illustrates that the real exports of goods and services slowed down by 10.24% in the first quarter of 2009. While private consumption and fixed capital formation are declining, the score of Taiwan’s GDP decreased by 8.36% year by year. The latest predictions made by international institutions showed that the global economy will be in recession through 2009, Taiwan’s export performance seemed to be depressed. Therefore, Taiwan’s real GDP is forecasted to be -2.97% in 2009.

(2) Unemployment rate and labor force participation rate In April 2009, the unemployment rate was down to 5.76%, from 5.81% in March 2009, indicated in Figure 1.

(3) The Monitoring Indicators The overall monitor indicators presented a slowdown in Taiwan’s economic conditions. The Monitoring Indicators is presented in Table 2. Taiwan’s business cyclical indicators also demonstrated a slowdown in economic conditions. The total score in May was 12, flashing the signal of "blue" for the ninth consecutive month. But the total score in June was 17, flashing the signal of "yellow and blue" after the nine months of blue signal. Among the nine indicators, money supply M1B got one point and turned the light signal from "blue" in January 2009 to "red" in June 2009. The Stock Price Index turned the light signal from "blue" in May 2009 to "yellow-blue" in June 2009. The light signals for the others remained unchanged.

(4) Domestic investment In the fourth quarter of 2008, gross fixed capital formation showed a slowdown by 23.2%, due to a 32.2% sink in private investment, shown in Table 3. In 2009(month), when the global economic downturn became sharp, domestic private investment was hoped to contract 28.1%. But with the Government fulfilling a variety of major investment programs to stimulate the economy, government investment is expected to increase 22.1%.

Those figures indicated that Taiwan’s economic situation is in a downturn. The main reason is that Taiwan is most export-dependent economy, making many high-tech products for Western consumers, therefore has been beat by the sink in global demand. Exports decreased by a record of 44% past year to January and caused that Taiwan’s competitiveness has declined by its relatively strong currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by more than 10% since the start of 2008. Freezing exports also affected domestic spending decreased. Unemployment rate was up to a six-year high of 5.81% in March 2009. Many companies in Taiwan called employees to take unpaid leave.

People in Taiwan seem to be sad about the situation of Taiwan’s economy, but the crisis is a chance. It is the time to hold up the economy for Taiwan’s Government. For example, the Central Bank has cut interest rates six times since September 2008, to 1.5%. Taiwan’s Government also plans a short-term stimulus of infrastructure investment, consumer handouts and tax cuts worth around 3% of GDP in 2009. Another new action to prop consumer spending is that the Government gave each citizen a consumption voucher worth NT$3,600 ($106). Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

Table 1 Real GDP Growth (Change from a year ago)

P = preliminary; f = forecast; r = revised. Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (2009a).

Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (2009a).

Figure 1 Unemployment rate and labor force participation rate

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

Table 2 The monitoring indicators 2008 2009 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Monetary Aggregates M1B Direct and Indirect Finance Stock Price Index Industrial production Index Nonagricultural Employment Exports Imports of Machinery and Electrical Equipment Manufacturing Sales Wholesale, Retail and Food Service Sales

Booming Transitional Stable Transitional Sluggish Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (2009a).

Table 3 Gross fixed capital formation: real growth and current price value NT$ billions, yoy %

Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (2009a).

Whether the global economy will boost or not is still a variable and can not be controlled by Taiwan’s Government. What the Government can do is to prop up domestic economic growth and to wait for the global economy rising up. Therefore, the Government has drawn up short- term and monetary plans to boost domestic demand. According to a recent British study, these Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009 studies indicate that, on average, a 10% increase in public infrastructure capital stock increases GDP by around 2% [2, 3]. With the start of a large scale incentive program of public construction, involving investment of NT500 billion for the next four years and including several constructions of transportation, Taiwan should regain a fit level of economic growth.

The Government planned the constructions of transportation; meanwhile, it also considered the effects of transportation to the land use and the energy-use for sustainable development. The Government held two important councils, one is the land planning and transportation unit of the national council for sustainable development and the other is the Bureau of energy, Ministry of economic Affairs. All groups of the Government are devoted to carrying on the action plans of the councils. Our goal is to create a world-wide transportation system that is efficient, and safe for the rapid and economical movement of people and goods.

Furthermore, in the longer term, it is good for Taiwan’s economy to improve the relationship with the Mainland Area. The direct flights between Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area should help to reduce the cost of transportation for Taiwan business companies trading with the Mainland Area. Then the competitiveness of Taiwan companies can be improved. So the improvement of the transportation plays an important role in boosting the Taiwan’s economy.

3. TAIWAN TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENTS

Transportation is a vital part of the nation’s economy. Business, consumer, and government spending on transportation are related to gross domestic product (GDP). The expert represented that transportation is an important factor to production and economic activity. The advantages for investment in transportation consist of increasing capacity, improving service, reducing travel time, lowering trip cost, and improving travel-time reliability. For individuals and businesses, these advantages provide greater productivity and better access to labor and markets. Even industries can be more competitive and the economic growth can rise. For example, the U.S. transportation is estimated to be as much as 16% to 18% of the economy (The Eddington Transport Study, 2006).

To present Taiwan transport developments, the authors focus on the operations and the major initiatives of transportation divided into land, sea, and air transportation. Land transportation comprises railways (including general railways, mass rapid transit, and high-speed rail) and highway transportation. Sea transportation consists of water transport and harbors. Air transportation includes airline companies and airports. The trends of the transport developments are reported in Table 4 and Table 5 as follows.

Some phenomenon can be found in Table 4. First, the number of passengers of railways in 2008 compared with 2007 increased, meanwhile the number of vehicles passing the toll stations on expressways decreased. One of the possible reasons could be the higher price of oil in 2008. So the private drivers shifted to the public transportation, such as mass rapid transit or high-speed rail. The advantages of the shifting of private drivers are saving time and fuel, enhancing expressway users' convenience and safety, and decreasing the CO2 emissions to reduce air pollution. Second, the figures of goods transported by air or sea transportation declined. As an island, Taiwan relies heavily on marine transportation for its commodities. One of the reasonable explanations could be the slump in global demand. A recession decreased the amount of Taiwan’s exports. There are a variety of disadvantages, including the revenues of air lines or vessel companies decrease. Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

Table 4 The operations of transportation Percentage Unit (for Traffic in Traffic in Categories Sub-categories of change passengers or 2007 2008 (yoy) goods) (1)general 10,000 1.Railway 16,969 17,870 5.31% railways Passengers (2)mass rapid 10,000 41,623 47,949 15.20% transit Passengers 10,000 (3)high-speed rail 1,556 3,058 96.53%* Passengers 2.highway (1)expressway 56,964 54,355 -4.58% 10,000 vehicles transportation (2)general 1000,000 1,021 1,054 3.24% highways Passengers 1,000 3.Sea transportation (1)water transport 426 507 19.01% Passengers (2)harbors 1373 1298 -5.46% 10,000 TEU 10,000 4.Air transportation (1)airline 3977 3524 -11.39% Persons (2)airports 171 159 -7.02% 10,000 M.T. Note: The entire HSR line has been in commercial operation since March 2, 2007. Source: The Ministry of Transportation and Communications (2008).

Table 5 The constructions or the major initiatives of transportation. categories The constructions or the major initiatives 1.Railway z Implementing several major projects, including the track structure renovation (1) general project. railways z Two Railway Underground Projects were aggressively initiated. z The major construction projects include the railway underground projects. (2) mass rapid z Continuing the implementation of 8 approved Taipei MRT lines, including 6 lines transit and 2 extended lines. z Kaohsiung City government has been working on the plan of a Circular Line Light Rail project and also on the Red-and- Orange-line extensions. z The MOTC is actively promoting the Taiwan Taoyuan Airport Access MRT System Construction Project. (3)high- z In conjunction with the MRT systems and the general railways, the HSR will speed rail complete a high-efficiency rail transportation network and eliminate all intercity transportation congestion. 2.highway z Implementing the project for improving the seismic safety and performance of transportation bridges. (1)expressways z With the Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) service. (2)general z Conducting 5 Construction Projects, providing higher levels in access roads. highways) 3.Sea z Developing Taiwan as a sea transportation center. transportation z Carrying on Free Trade Zones (FTZs) at the island's four international commercial ports. z Improving the harbor operation's efficiency through the aim of making the harbor business computerized and paperless. 4.Air z Negotiating and revising air service agreements with foreign countries, transportation liberalizing business aviation, and facilitating cooperation among carriers. z Facilitating the software and hardware of airports and air services, enlarging the capacities of the aerodrome, and providing safety and quality air services. z Implementing the CNS/ATM (Communication Navigation Surveillance/Air Traffic Management) Development to facilitate freer and more efficient navigation, by reducing both aircraft separation and carriers' operation cost. Source: The Ministry of Transportation and Communications (2008). Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

Although the global economy seems to remain in a recession, the transportation should keep running and provide the service for each person and each company. Furthermore Taiwan’s Government urges officials to carry out or plan many projects for promoting the efficiency and safety of transportation. The projects are listed in Table 5. For example, to improve railway service quality and efficiency, the Ministry of Transportation and Communication will continue to implement several major projects, including the track structure renovation project, integrated rolling stock replacement and procurement program, and two railway underground projects. For the safety, the seismic safety and performance of bridges becomes one of most important objectives of the National Hazard Mitigation Program. Facing the Development of Cross-Strait Transportation in Line with Taiwan's Mainland, Policy Preparations are made. Implementing the Communication Navigation Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) Development and Installation Project of Taipei Flight Information Region can provide more efficient navigation, by reducing both aircraft separation and carriers' operation cost.

4. FUTURE TAIWAN ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

With the rapid turndown of the global economy, economic experts say that the two main obstacles to a quick recovery will be the high unemployment and slow exports. Therefore, there is no choice but to accept the Taiwan’s economic challenges and check what will be that situation in 2009. Even the Government and companies must continue to review export opportunities, in both, inside and outside Taiwan. Meanwhile, on the failing economy, easing monetary policy in coordination with extending financial policy would be the effective way to boost domestic demand. A famous Taiwan economist said that lower taxes and government expenditures would have a stronger impact than cutting rates further and tightly controlling exchange rates.

There are some steps to explore the situation and to recommend some better methods for slowing down the unemployment and rising the opportunities of the exports. First, the authors used a common analysis method for policy, SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats). The SWOT analysis is used to provide a clear assessment and explanation of the situation of Taiwan economic challenges.

Second, according to the process of SWOT, the goal of Taiwan in the next four years is to remain the economic growth in a healthy level of economy.

Third, the items in four components of SWOT are illustrated as follow. Those items are Taiwan’s economic challenges in the future.

(1) Strengths z The Taiwan Government will invest NT$500 billion to tick up domestic demand for the next four years. z The building and construction technology for public infrastructure are good. z The planning ability of the Government is excellent. (2) Weaknesses z Lack of integrated development between transportation and land use. z Transport companies act a cut-throat operation. z The unemployment rate of 5.31% in January was the highest than past history Some 578,000 people were unemployed, with 290,000 being put out of work by companies (Council for Economic Planning and Development, 2009a). Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

z Taiwan will undergo a negative economic growth of 2.9 percent in 2009 (Council for Economic Planning and Development, 2009a). (3) Opportunities z The effects of the direct transportation links, such as shortening travel times and lowering costs, will improve business opportunities. z Opening up of Taiwan Area to tourism from Mainland Area highlighted both the business opportunities. z Taiwan is in an excellent position of global center. 4. Threats z Taiwan lacks the natural energy. z Taiwan needs to carry on actions of energy saving and carbon reduction. z The state of the global economy, which is a big variable.

Although, there are various challenges that people and the Government in Taiwan would face, the Government plans the Economic Revitalization Policy-Project to expand investment in public works. The process of planning the project consists of analyzing the necessity of expanding public investment, setting the targets of the project, choosing the project selecting criteria, dividing the task and budget among ministries and commissions, presenting measurable benefits and intangible benefits, taking the implementation and budget appropriation, and evaluating the performance. The six targets of this project are reported in Table 6. It must be pointed out that this project will raise real GDP by an average of 1.02 percentage points per year. The amount of budget for the Ministry of Transportation and Communication (MOTC) is about 241 NT billions (48.18% of total amount of budget for the project). The sub-projects implemented by the MOTC are as follow (Council for Economic Planning and Development, 2009a).

z 10 highway sub-projects – NT$110.8732 billion; z 14 railway sub-projects – NT$126.3577 billion; z 3 air and sea transport sub-projects – NT$3.4683 billion; z 1 tourism sub-project – NT$0.1987 billion.]

Table 6 The project to expand investment in public works - six main targets. Unit: NT$ billions Six main targets 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total 1.Completing a fast and convenient 138.5363 24.3426 45.0951 42.535 26.5636 transportation network (27.7%) 2.Building a safe and disaster-free 99.3035 31.0561 40.6874 15.2111 12.3489 environment (19.9%) 3.Raising the quality of the cultural 126.8097 48.3810 38.7895 20.2046 19.4346 and living environment (25.4%) 4.Strengthening national 94.6245 16.9719 27.6405 25.3524 24.6597 competitiveness infrastructure (18.9%) 5.Improving offshore island 3.4683 0.6553 1.2245 0.9930 0.5955 transport facilities (0.7%) 6.Fostering prime R&D manpower, 37.2577 and helping to stabilize schooling 29.2569 7.2318 0.7690 0 (7.4%) and employment Total 150.6638 160.6688 105.0651 83.6023 500 (30.2%) (32.1%) (21.0%) (16.7%) Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (2009a).

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

However, how to implement the project, especially for the MOTC, starts to be a challenge for the next four years. The detailed strategies for implementing the projects are shown in the next section.

5. FUTURE TAIWAN TRANSPORT STRATEGIES

There are several kinds of benefits related to transportation investment (Cambridge Systematics,2002). Those benefits are shown as follow: (1) To boost industry competitiveness and productivity; (2) To enhance household well-being; (3) To strengthen local, regional, and state economies; (4) To facilitate business and leisure travel; (5) To reduce economic losses associated with accidents; (6) To reduce economic losses associated with congestion; (7) To create jobs.

To ensure the possible benefits of the investment in transportation, the Government has held a national conference with the land planning and transportation unit of the national council for sustainable development, and the energy saving council. The authors describe the guiding principles of the land use and the transportation development. The goals consist of (1) promoting the accessibility and the mobility of goods and persons to create the opportunities;(2) creating a integrated network to fit the demand of sustainable development for the economy and environment;(3) providing humanistic and public transportation service; (4) providing a no-gap, efficiency, and fine public transport shuttle service to gain the purpose of energy saving and carbon reduction [17]. We follow the processes of SWOT to create an analysis–matrix of strategies shown in Table 7. This matrix can help decision makers to handle the situation or review the conditions or analyze the risks.

First, the five main concepts of the land use for the space developments are listed as follow. (1) The axis of protection for the mountain to protect the ecology. (2) The axis of management for the development in the western region of Taiwan to promote the competitiveness. (3) The axis of developmental strategy for the eastern region of Taiwan to show the uniqueness. (4) To renew the space of corridors along rivers. (5) To refine the land of coastlines and circle waterways near ocean for the functions of environmental protection and industrial potential.

Second, there are three axes of transportation policy as follows. (1) To strengthen the Taiwan’s competiveness by integrating harbors and airports to server the companies over the world. (2) To refine the transportation backbone. (3) To construct a fairly and sustainable environment for public transportation.

Third, the main strategies are as follow. z To set a redeveloped organization that has the same right and duty and takes the responsibility to achieve the goal shown above. z To promote the functions of harbors and airports as a fine hub. z To strengthen the integrated transport functions of regions near harbors and airports, such as service of high-speed-rail for airports. Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

z To strengthen the environment for integrated logistic. z To renew the operation process of harbors and airports. z To carry on Free Trade Zones (FTZs). z To use the Intelligent Taiwan and Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) to rise the efficiency of the intercity network. z To provide a plan to develop the ocean transport network and to manage the land at the coastline around Taiwan. z To create the humanistic and lower-energy-consumption transportation environment. z To provide a no-transfer-gap, efficiency, and fine public transport service to gain the purpose of energy saving and carbon reduction z To cooperate with the harbors in Mainland China Area across Taiwan’s Strait. z To keep a good trading relation with neighborhood areas. z To assist the high speed rail company to operate well. z To strengthen the ability of humanistic rescue when a disaster happens. z To promote public service, especially shuttle service. z To subsidy the roadway service companies. z To promote the digital industries in the remote districts to create the opportunities of job.

Taiwan Strait The axis for protection of mountains.

The corridors along the rivers.

The axis of development for the eastern regions. The axis of developmental management for the The circle waterways western regions. along the coastlines.

The Pacific Ocean

Figure 2 The main principles of the land use

Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (2009b).

6. CONCLUSIONS

The purpose of this article is to present Taiwan’s overall economic trends, transport development, economic challenges and transport strategies. Transportation investments play a key role to any economic stimulus package, especially in a recession. While the economy Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009 remains slow, the Government improves the investment environment, stimulates the economy, and increases work effectiveness with the hope that those projects can raise Taiwan’s international competitiveness, and improve the quality of life. The purpose of those projects consist of (1) lifting the accessibility and the mobility of goods and persons to create the opportunities of nation, region, and industry;(2) constructing a united network to fit the demand of sustainable development for the economy and environment;(3) providing humanistic and public transportation service and integrating each service of different transportation systems to meet the demand of the people; (4) providing a no-transfer-gap-, efficiency, and fine public transport service to gain the purpose of energy saving and carbon reduction;(5)setting a redeveloped organization that has the same right and duty and takes the responsibility for achieving the goal shown above. The implementation of those projects is aimed at ensuring Taiwan in 2012, an efficient and convenient transportation, a safe environment, a high quality of life nationwide and key strengths for competing internationally.

Table 7 Strategies In SWOT Analysis - Matrix. internal Strengths: Weaknesses: +The Government invests much money - Lack in sea transportation for tourism. in transport construction. - Lack in the management for waterways around +Some companies are good at Taiwan. construction. - Lack in the integrated development between + The planning ability of the transportation and land use. Government is excellent. - Lack in the integrated development between strategies transportation and land use. -Transport companies act a cut-throat competition. -There are Some bottle-necks in land transportation exist. -the gap of digital life between city and country is external large. Opportunities: z To promote the functions of harbors z To use the Intelligent Taiwan and Electronic +Start to unfreeze and airports as a fine hub. Toll Collection (ETC) to rise the efficiency the the cross-strait z To strengthen the integrated transport intercity network. relation. functions of regions near harbors and z To provide a plan to develop the ocean +Taiwan is in an airports, such as service of high- transport network and to manage the land on excellent speed-rail for airports. the coastline around Taiwan. position of z To strengthen the environment for z To create the humanistic and lower-energy- global center. integrated logistic. consumption transportation environment. z To renew the operation process of z To provide a no-transfer-gap, efficiency, and harbors and airports. fine public transport service to gain the z To carry on Free Trade Zones (FTZs) purpose of energy saving and carbon z To promote the functions of reduction. exclusive area in the airport. z To create a smart public transportation service. z To promote the digital industries in the remote districts. Threats: z To cooperate with the harbors in z To assist the high speed rail company to -Taiwan lacks the Mainland Area across Taiwan’s operate well. natural energy. Strait. z To strengthen the ability of humanistic rescue -Taiwan needs to z To keep a good trading relation with when a disaster happened. follow the neighborhood areas, especially with z To promote public service, especially shuttle actions of energy the Mainland Area. service. saving and z To subsidy the roadway service companies. Carbon reduction. Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (2009b). Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

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