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Taiwan's Transport Development Strategies During Challenging Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009 Taiwan’s Transport Development Strategies during Challenging Economic Time Wu-Cheng Chen Hisjen Wu Professor and Dean Ph.D. student College of Management Department of Traffic and Transportation Chung Hua University National Chiao Tung University No. 707, Sec. 2, Wufu Rd., Hsinchu, 300 No. 240, Dun-Hua North Road, Taipei, 105 Taiwan, R.O.C. Taiwan, R.O.C. Fax:+886-3-5182117 Fax:+886-2-25450429 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Abstract: In January 2009, the global economy seemed to be in a recession. However, a crisis is a chance. Taiwan’s Government took some innovative actions with the effects of transportation to the land use and the energy use for sustainable development in the hope that the economy of Taiwan will rise. Taiwan’s Government will invest NT$500 billion to tick up domestic demand over the next four years. The SWOT method is used to analyze the strategies of transportation. The strategies for Taiwan transport in the future and conclusions are reported in the article. Recently, the global economy seemed to be in a changing condition. Key Words: economic growth, SWOT, transportation strategy 1. INTRODUCTION Recently, the global economy has faced to severe slowdown and recessions. However, the crisis is a chance. Various countries, such as U.S.A, Mainland China, Japan, and Taiwan, are striving to stabilize or stimulate the national economic growth by all means. For example, U.S. President Obama has worked with the Congress to deal with the financial crisis. Now, it comes up positive sign. Taiwan does same thing, R.O.C. President Ma Ying-jeou and his Cabinet took some measures, such as Love-Taiwan 12 Projects, consumption vouchers, and so on, in order to simulate our economy. It is apparent that the improvements of national economy to give better living become the global trend and an urgent goal. How to achieve this goal in Taiwan is an important issue. This paper will discuss about the issue and its relationship with the transportation developments strategies. Transportation plays an essential role in the national economy developments. This paper will look back our experience on transportation developments and its multiple effects on our economical developments. While the major thrust of this article is the presentation of the future strategies for Taiwan transport, we will also examine the economic trend, the transport development, and the economic challenges of Taiwan. Since it is significant to express a strong relationship with the economy and the transportation, we will first show the overall economic trend of Taiwan in Section 2. Then, the development of the transportation in Taiwan reported in Section 3. The serious challenges of Taiwan economy are shown in Section 4. Later, we use a planning method, SWOT, to present the future strategies for Taiwan transport in Section 5. Last, the authors bring a fitting conclusion in Section 6. 2. TAIWAN OVERALL ECONOMIC TREND In this article, we described briefly Taiwan’s economic growth, unemployment rate and labor Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009 force participation rate, the monitoring indicators and domestic investment. Those descriptions are shown as follows (Council for Economic Planning and Development, 2009a). (1) Economic growth Table 1 illustrates that the real exports of goods and services slowed down by 10.24% in the first quarter of 2009. While private consumption and fixed capital formation are declining, the score of Taiwan’s GDP decreased by 8.36% year by year. The latest predictions made by international institutions showed that the global economy will be in recession through 2009, Taiwan’s export performance seemed to be depressed. Therefore, Taiwan’s real GDP is forecasted to be -2.97% in 2009. (2) Unemployment rate and labor force participation rate In April 2009, the unemployment rate was down to 5.76%, from 5.81% in March 2009, indicated in Figure 1. (3) The Monitoring Indicators The overall monitor indicators presented a slowdown in Taiwan’s economic conditions. The Monitoring Indicators is presented in Table 2. Taiwan’s business cyclical indicators also demonstrated a slowdown in economic conditions. The total score in May was 12, flashing the signal of "blue" for the ninth consecutive month. But the total score in June was 17, flashing the signal of "yellow and blue" after the nine months of blue signal. Among the nine indicators, money supply M1B got one point and turned the light signal from "blue" in January 2009 to "red" in June 2009. The Stock Price Index turned the light signal from "blue" in May 2009 to "yellow-blue" in June 2009. The light signals for the others remained unchanged. (4) Domestic investment In the fourth quarter of 2008, gross fixed capital formation showed a slowdown by 23.2%, due to a 32.2% sink in private investment, shown in Table 3. In 2009(month), when the global economic downturn became sharp, domestic private investment was hoped to contract 28.1%. But with the Government fulfilling a variety of major investment programs to stimulate the economy, government investment is expected to increase 22.1%. Those figures indicated that Taiwan’s economic situation is in a downturn. The main reason is that Taiwan is most export-dependent economy, making many high-tech products for Western consumers, therefore has been beat by the sink in global demand. Exports decreased by a record of 44% past year to January and caused that Taiwan’s competitiveness has declined by its relatively strong currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by more than 10% since the start of 2008. Freezing exports also affected domestic spending decreased. Unemployment rate was up to a six-year high of 5.81% in March 2009. Many companies in Taiwan called employees to take unpaid leave. People in Taiwan seem to be sad about the situation of Taiwan’s economy, but the crisis is a chance. It is the time to hold up the economy for Taiwan’s Government. For example, the Central Bank has cut interest rates six times since September 2008, to 1.5%. Taiwan’s Government also plans a short-term stimulus of infrastructure investment, consumer handouts and tax cuts worth around 3% of GDP in 2009. Another new action to prop consumer spending is that the Government gave each citizen a consumption voucher worth NT$3,600 ($106). Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009 Table 1 Real GDP Growth (Change from a year ago) P = preliminary; f = forecast; r = revised. Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (2009a). Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (2009a). Figure 1 Unemployment rate and labor force participation rate Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009 Table 2 The monitoring indicators 2008 2009 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Monetary Aggregates M1B Direct and Indirect Finance Stock Price Index Industrial production Index Nonagricultural Employment Exports Imports of Machinery and Electrical Equipment Manufacturing Sales Wholesale, Retail and Food Service Sales Booming Transitional Stable Transitional Sluggish Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (2009a). Table 3 Gross fixed capital formation: real growth and current price value NT$ billions, yoy % Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (2009a). Whether the global economy will boost or not is still a variable and can not be controlled by Taiwan’s Government. What the Government can do is to prop up domestic economic growth and to wait for the global economy rising up. Therefore, the Government has drawn up short- term and monetary plans to boost domestic demand. According to a recent British study, these Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009 studies indicate that, on average, a 10% increase in public infrastructure capital stock increases GDP by around 2% [2, 3]. With the start of a large scale incentive program of public construction, involving investment of NT500 billion for the next four years and including several constructions of transportation, Taiwan should regain a fit level of economic growth. The Government planned the constructions of transportation; meanwhile, it also considered the effects of transportation to the land use and the energy-use for sustainable development. The Government held two important councils, one is the land planning and transportation unit of the national council for sustainable development and the other is the Bureau of energy, Ministry of economic Affairs. All groups of the Government are devoted to carrying on the action plans of the councils. Our goal is to create a world-wide transportation system that is efficient, and safe for the rapid and economical movement of people and goods. Furthermore, in the longer term, it is good for Taiwan’s economy to improve the relationship with the Mainland Area. The direct flights between Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area should help to reduce the cost of transportation for Taiwan business companies trading with the Mainland Area. Then the competitiveness of Taiwan companies can be improved. So the improvement of the transportation plays an important role in boosting the Taiwan’s economy. 3. TAIWAN TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENTS Transportation is a vital part of the nation’s economy. Business, consumer, and government spending on transportation are related to gross domestic product (GDP). The expert represented that transportation is an important factor to production and economic activity. The advantages for investment in transportation consist of increasing capacity, improving service, reducing travel time, lowering trip cost, and improving travel-time reliability. For individuals and businesses, these advantages provide greater productivity and better access to labor and markets.
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