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Gas Pricing Reform in India: Implications for the Indian Gas Landscape

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Gas Pricing Reform in India: Implications for the Indian Gas Landscape April 2015 Gas Pricing Reform in India: Implications for the Indian gas landscape OIES PAPER: NG 96 Anupama Sen The contents of this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2015 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-78467-026-9 i April 2015: Gas Pricing Reform in India Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................. iv 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2. The Structure of Gas Prices in India ............................................................................................... 7 2.1 Pricing under the Nomination and Discovered Fields (Pre NELP) Regimes ................................ 8 2.2 Pricing under the NELP Regime ................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Pricing of LNG Imports ................................................................................................................ 10 2.4 The 2013 Reform Proposal (Rangarajan Committee) ................................................................ 11 2.5 The 2014 Gas Price Reform ....................................................................................................... 13 2.5.1. Analysis – Is the new formula relevant to India’s Gas Market? ........................................... 15 3. India’s Gas Sector – An Overview ................................................................................................. 18 3.1 Projections of Demand and Domestic Supply............................................................................. 19 3.2 The Structure and Drivers of Demand ........................................................................................ 21 3.2.1 The Fertilisers Sector ............................................................................................................ 24 3.2.2 The Power Sector ................................................................................................................. 26 3.2.3 City Gas for Households and Transportation ....................................................................... 27 3.2.4 Tier 2 Demand ...................................................................................................................... 28 3.2.5 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 29 4. Impact on Domestic Supply ........................................................................................................... 32 4.1 Will Gas Price Reforms Revive Domestic Production? .............................................................. 34 4.2 Will Gas Price Reforms Lead to New Investments in India’s Upstream Sector? ........................ 39 5. Impact on the Main Gas Consuming Sectors .............................................................................. 42 5.1 Fertiliser Subsidies – Can the fertiliser sector bear a higher gas price? .................................... 42 5.2 Impact on the Power Sector ........................................................................................................ 46 5.3 Impact on the City Gas Sector .................................................................................................... 48 6. Outlook for Imports ......................................................................................................................... 52 6.1 Pipeline Imports .......................................................................................................................... 55 7. Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 57 Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................. 62 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................ 63 Figures Figure 1: Structure of Indian Gas Prices prior to Gas Price Reform, 2014 ............................................. 8 Figure 2: Domestic Gas Supplied under Different Fiscal & Pricing Regimes (%) ............................... 11 Figure 3: India Gas Price versus International Gas Prices, 1997-2014 ................................................ 15 Figure 4: Gas Consumption, Production and Imports, 2000-2013 ....................................................... 18 Figure 5: Proportion of Gas in Primary Energy Consumption ............................................................... 18 Figure 6: Projections of Demand/Use of Gas to 2035 .......................................................................... 20 Figure 7: Projections of Domestic Production/Availability of Gas to 2035 ............................................ 20 Figure 8: Consumption of Domestic Gas by Sector (%) ....................................................................... 23 Figure 9: Consumption of LNG Imports by Sector (%) ......................................................................... 23 Figure 10: Fertiliser Subsidies in India, 2004-13 (in 2013 prices)......................................................... 25 Figure 11: Average Costs versus Average Tariffs in Power ................................................................. 27 ii April 2015: Gas Pricing Reform in India Figure 12: Forecast of the Use of Gas by Sector.................................................................................. 30 Figure 13: Notional versus Realistic Demand, 2030 ............................................................................. 31 Figure 14: India Gas Production by Sector ........................................................................................... 32 Figure 15: Number of Wells Drilled, 2005-13 ........................................................................................ 34 Figure 16: Gas Production by Company (2008-2013) .......................................................................... 35 Figure 17: Planned versus Actual Production, ‘KG-D6’ Block .............................................................. 35 Figure 18: Production Targets for India’s 12th Five Year Plan .............................................................. 36 Figure 19: Proven Reserves by Company ............................................................................................ 37 Figure 20: Average Cost of Production of Indian NOCs versus Domestic Price .................................. 38 Figure 21: Gas Resource Potential ....................................................................................................... 40 Figure 22: Prices Needed for New Commercial Production ................................................................. 41 Figure 23: Government Revenues (Taxes & Royalty) versus Total Subsidies - Substitution of FO/LSHS with Gas as Feedstock in FO/LSHS based Urea Plant ........................................................ 44 Figure 24: Government Revenues (Taxes & Royalty) versus Total Subsidies - Brownfield (Revival / Expansion) Urea Plant .......................................................................................................................... 44 Figure 25: Government Revenues (Taxes & Royalty) versus Total Subsidies - Greenfield Urea Plant .............................................................................................................................................................. 45 Figure 26: Comparative Costs of Urea ................................................................................................. 45 Figure 27: Estimated Cost of Power from Gas versus Coal ................................................................. 47 Figure 28: Estimated Price of Compressed Natural Gas versus Diesel ............................................... 48 Figure 29: Estimates of Price of Piped Natural Gas versus Subsidised and Non-Subsidised LPG ..... 49 Figure 30: India LNG Imports, 2003-2013 ............................................................................................ 52 Figure 31: India’s Long-Term LNG Contracts ....................................................................................... 54 Figure 32: Potential for LNG Imports versus Contracted LNG Supply ................................................. 56 Tables Table 1: Gas Prices under Different Regimes prior to Gas Price Reforms (In $/MMBtu)....................... 7 Table 2: Growth Rates Assumed in Projections ................................................................................... 21 Table 3: Structure of Demand for Domestically Produced Gas ............................................................ 22 Table 4: Feedstock for Urea Manufacturing in India ............................................................................
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