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The Year 2019 Was a Mixed Bag of Opportunities and Challenges for the Realty Stakeholders in Mumbai

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The Year 2019 Was a Mixed Bag of Opportunities and Challenges for the Realty Stakeholders in Mumbai Publication: 99acres.com Date: 11 th December 2019 Headline: #YearEnd2019: The performance of Mumbai real estate and the way forward Weblink: https://www.99acres.com/articles/yearend2019-the-performance-of-mumbai-real- estate-and-the-way-forward.html The year 2019 was a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges for the realty stakeholders in Mumbai. While the State government undertook scores of measures to improve the realty sentiment in the city, the intermittent demand from homebuyers and limited avenues for external funding posed numerous challenges during the course. From the increased Floor Space Index (FSI) of 0.5 percent to the establishment of Self-Regulatory Organisations (SROs) and the amendment of Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Act to expedite the construction of redevelopment projects in Mumbai , the Maharashtra government undertook various measures to augment the realty dynamics in the city. It also urged the inclusion of smaller projects under the Maharashtra Real Estate Regulatory Authority (MahaRERA) to ensure transparency and faster delivery of these projects. However, despite the various growth propellers in place, the realty market in Mumbai failed to register the desired growth in 2019. The market continued to struggle with unsold inventory soaring to almost two lakh units, negative cash flows and delayed project deliveries. Though the situation improved with respect to 2018 as the homebuyers made a U-turn into the market, the lower inventory offtake was worrisome. Lack of lenders and institutional investors impeded the construction activities and the supply of preferred residential units in the city. While Grade B and C category developers announced a few housing projects in the city fringes, Grade A developers sustained the market sentiment throughout the year. Some of the prime developers that remained active during 2019 include Godrej, Ashiana, Puranik Builders, Shapoorji Pallonji, Hiranandani Developers and SD Group. Sporadic residential supply Despite the headwinds in the previous quarters, the year 2019 started on a positive note as the residential supply in the city depicted 20 percent growth QoQ. MahaRERA continued to function effectively and registered around 22,455 residential projects. Ulwe, Dronagiri, Kharghar, Sanpada, Vasind, Panvel, Powai, Pokharan Road and Ghodbunder Road, among others, remained the popular micro-markets among developers and observed a flurry of new project launches during the year. Nevertheless, close to 60 percent of these primary additions were the projects that were earlier withheld in 2018 in the wake of the changing regulatory environment. However, the ensuing quarters failed to create the desired impact. While Q2 2019 witnessed only a 2.5 percent increase in the quarterly domestic supply, the Jul-Sep 2019 quarter saw a 17 percent fall in the overall new launches in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). Only 10-12 projects were launched during Apr-Jun 2019 on the occasions of Gudi Padwa and Akshaya Tritiya as the withdrawal of Input Tax Credit (ITC) tampered the supply flow. The quarter ending September 2019 remained meek owing to the torrential downpour and removal of subvention scheme by the National Housing Board (NHB). The last quarter of 2019 seems upbeat with about 10-12 new project launches in the month of October alone, despite November displaying a downward trend. According to Niranjan Hiranandani, President, NAREDCO, “Increased preference of homebuyers towards affordable housing and mid- segment projects led to the concentration of residential supply in the peripheral micro-markets. Extended Eastern Suburbs such as Wadala, Kurla, Chembur, Powai, Vikhroli and the outlying areas in the West such as Andheri, Jogeshwari, Dahisar, Kandivali and Borivali saw the maximum influx of new projects in Mumbai. In Thane, submarkets such as Ghodbunder Road and Pokharan Road took the lead.” Source: 99acres Mumbai Insite (Jul-Sep 2019) Affordable and mid-segment projects steal the show Property sales in Mumbai jumped by 23 percent in the first three quarters of 2019 over the same period in 2016. The country, in general, recorded sales of around 1.15 lakh houses and flats in the first nine months of 2019, which is 59 percent higher than the sales recorded in the same period in 2017. Rituraj Verma, Partner, Nisus Finance The ebb and flow in the housing sector continued throughout the year 2019. While Q1 and Q2 recorded substantial improvement in the housing demand on the back of tax reduction, Q3 registered a downtrend owing to the National Housing Bank’s (NHB) crackdown on the subvention schemes, torrential downpour and the Shraadh period. “Traditionally, the festive season, particularly around Diwali, works best for the real estate sector in MMR. The scenario has been the same in 2019; however, homebuyers’ preference experienced a significant shift in Mumbai. While in H1 2019, ready-to-move-in units ruled the roost, the second half of the year saw under-construction units driving the market. Similarly, ready units remained a popular choice owing to their exemption from GST; however, there was improved demand for under- construction units post the reduction of GST rates in the year,” shares Hiranandani. The affordable housing segment, i.e. homes priced within Rs 45 lakh was the star performer of the year followed by mid-segment projects pegged between Rs 40 lakh and Rs 60 lakh. While Ulwe, Taloja, Dronagiri, Badlapur and Mira Road and beyond were the popular micro-markets for low-cost units, Dombivli, Kolshet, Kharghar, Panvel, Malad, Goregaon and Parel remained the potboilers for mid-segment projects. Source: 99acres Mumbai Insite (Jul-Sep 2019) The quoted average capital “asks” remained stable across MMR in 2019. Despite the demand fluctuations, builders were reluctant to reduce the capital prices as the development cost remained skewed due to the high land prices and premium FSI paid by the developers. However, many developers rolled out 5-6 percent discounts to potential buyers. The average rental hike was also range-bound to 2-4 percent across the quarters. Unsold inventory reels under pressure With developers overestimating the market demand and the purchasing power of the homebuyers, the market remained laden with over two lakh unsold units at the end of the quarter ending September 2019. The central and southern pockets of the city witnessed acute pile-up of unsold stock owing to high property prices. Many homebuyers even revoked the deals on account of high price points. Besides, delayed project deliveries also remained a prime reason for the mounting inventory levels. Most of the housing projects in South and Central Mumbai comprise luxury projects which had few takers during the year, largely because of the long execution delays, high property prices and the bigger carpet areas. Apartment size in the south-central part of Mumbai, which includes neighbourhoods of Worli, Lower Parel, Prabhadevi, Tardeo and Mahalaxmi, vary from 800 sq ft to 4,500 sq ft. Whereas, the carpet area of premium properties in other localities such as Ville Parle, Bandra and Sion ranges between 1,500 sq ft and 3,500 sq ft. Besides, property values in central locations range as high as Rs 80 crore as against Rs 15 crore in other luxury markets. The way forward in 2020 The housing sentiment in the city remained majorly marred by delayed housing projects and liquidity pressure faced by the developers. However, going forward, the realtor community is hopeful that the sectoral demand would increase and the sentiment would improve. Infusion of Alternate Investment Fund (AIF) of Rs 25,000 crore coupled with various ongoing infrastructure projects and increased office space leasing, particularly in the coworking segment would also thrive the realty growth in the city. MahaRERA has also undertaken various steps to establish trust among builders and buyers. For instance, it has established five SROs across the State to monitor the progress of ongoing realty projects. Further, it plans to establish conciliation forums in every district of Maharashtra that will act as an alternative dispute resolution mechanism. Hakim Lakdawala, Group Promoter and C.E.O, Goodwill Developers, avers that the year 2019 has been a roller coaster ride with developers being majorly busy in gauging the homebuyers’ preferences and altering the supply accordingly. However, we expect 2020 to be more stable and propel real estate growth. We anticipate that gradual recovery will speed up in the offing with more fence-sitters converting into actual buyers. Moreover, the impact of the measures announced by the Central Government in 2019 will also be visible and will give further clarity to developers about the way to move ahead. .
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