Rand Middle East Research Rand Center for Middle East Public Policy
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CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST PUBLIC POLICY International Programs at RAND RAND MIDDLE EAST RESEARCH RAND CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST PUBLIC POLICY WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP The RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy brings together analytic excellence and regional expertise from across the RAND Corporation to address the most critical political, social, and economic challenges facing the Middle East today. We focus not only on near-term challenges but also on critical long-term trends and solutions. Our goal is to inform policy in order to help improve the security and well-being of people living in the region. Our work in the region helps decisionmakers better understand how to tackle their domestic challenges and build capacity in ways that will make their societies safer, smarter, and more prosperous. WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP As part of a nonprofit and nonpartisan organization, RAND’s Middle East experts are committed to high-quality, objective research and analysis. They hold advanced degrees in an array of disciplines and specialize in a uniquely broad range of capabilities, including long-range planning and forecasting, risk assessment, and program evaluation. Many of our Middle East experts have advanced regional language skills and were born or have lived in the region. RAND’s Middle East work is funded by governments, by private foundations, and through the generous philanthropic support of individual donors and the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy Advisory Board. Many of our publications are available in Arabic at www.rand.org/ar WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP PEACE AND PROSPERITY ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST Reimagining U.S. Peace Dividend Strategy in the Widening the Middle East Economic Growth and Sustainable Development Benefits Partnerships, Strategic of the Abraham Accords Investments Daniel Egel, Shira Efron, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Linda Linda Robinson Robinson, Jeffrey Martini, Nathan Vest, Ashley L. Rhoades The Abraham Accords represent a major political break- through. Four Muslim nations—the United Arab Emirates, RAND researchers offer a new framework for a Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco—have launched diplomatic comprehensive U.S. policy toward the Middle East. initiatives to normalize bilateral ties with Israel. If these The existing strategy has relied heavily on military ties evolve into multilateral accords fostering trade and power, has focused on regional threats, and has largely economic integration, they could generate 150,000 new fallen short in advancing U.S. interests and adapting to jobs and $75 billion in new economic activity for the four regional realities. Moving forward, the United States signatories. These estimates could grow to more than should recalibrate its policy and programs to place 4 million new jobs and $1 trillion in economic value if the greater emphasis on economic investments, improved accords expand to 11 nations, including Israel. governance, strengthened diplomacy, and efforts 8 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/PEA1149-1 focused on the needs of people in the region. To foster better outcomes, the United States should adopt a long- term time horizon for reducing conflict and supporting growth and development; apply greater selectivity and rigorous assessment to assistance programs; and work multilaterally with global and regional partners to address common challenges. 186 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA958-1 Executive summary: 12 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA958-2 Building an Enduring Peace in Yemen Lessons from Five Years of RAND Research Daniel Egel, Trevor Johnston, Ashley L. Rhoades, Eric Robinson This report traces the origins of Yemen’s civil war, assesses its costs, identifies the drivers of conflict and mediation, and discusses the political, economic, and military factors affecting the peace process. An enduring peace requires a coordinated inter- national approach and the formation of an international body with the resources to support a decades-long process of reconciliation, reconstruction, and redevelopment. 57 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA733-1 WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP PEACE AND PROSPERITY FOR ISRAELIS AND PALESTINIANS Alternatives in the Building a Successful Israeli-Palestinian Palestinian State Conflict The RAND Palestinian State Daniel Egel, C. Ross Anthony, Study Team Shira Efron, Rita T. Karam, Mary E. Vaiana, Charles P. Ries In this examination of how an independent Palestinian state, if The latest installment of decades created, could succeed, the authors of RAND work to resolve the weigh options for strengthening Israeli-Palestinian conflict culls governance, security, economic results from 33 focus groups—conducted with West Bank development, access to water, health, health care, and Palestinians, Gazan Palestinians, Israeli Jews, and Israeli education. The authors estimate the financial resources Arabs—on the viability of five alternative futures: the needed for successful development over the first decade status quo, a two-state solution, confederation, annexa- of independence. tion, and a one-state solution. The two-state solution was 452 pages, 2007, www.rand.org/t/MG146-1 deemed the most viable, but all four groups were skeptical of it. Identifying incentives to encourage Israelis to explore the two-state solution will likely be critical to its success. Helping a Palestinian 180 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA725-1 State Succeed Key Findings The Costs of the The RAND Palestinian State Israeli-Palestinian Study Team Conflict Cost estimates suggest that the C. Ross Anthony, Daniel Egel, funding necessary for implementing Charles P. Ries, Craig A. Bond, the RAND team’s recommendations Andrew Liepman, Jeffrey to help a Palestinian state succeed Martini, Steven Simon, Shira is within the combined capacity of international resources Efron, Bradley D. Stein, and private investors. The analyses assume a peace accord, Lynsay Ayer, Mary E. Vaiana but many of the recommendations could be implemented constructively prior to Palestinian independence. A two-state solution would provide by far the best eco- 86 pages, 2007, www.rand.org/t/MG146z1-1 nomic outcomes for both Israelis and Palestinians. A return to violence would have profoundly negative eco- nomic consequences for both parties. Taking advantage of the economic opportunities of a two-state solution would require substantial investments from both parties and from the international community. 292 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/RR740-1 WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP The Arc The Air War Against A Formal Structure for the Islamic State a Palestinian State The Role of Airpower Doug Suisman, Steven Simon, in Operation Inherent Glenn Robinson, C. Ross Resolve Anthony, Michael Schoenbaum Becca Wasser, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Jeffrey Martini, The authors explore options for Alexandra T. Evans, Karl P. strengthening the housing and Mueller, Nathaniel Edenfield, transportation infrastructure of a Gabrielle Tarini, Ryan potential independent Palestinian Haberman, Jalen Zeman state. This examination includes initial cost estimates for improving and expanding the Airpower played a pivotal role in the U.S.-led fight against infrastructure necessary for successful development the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from 2014 to 2019, in the context of a large and rapidly growing Palestinian but airpower alone would likely not have sufficed. The population. combination of airpower and ground forces, led by Iraqi 106 pages, 2005, www.rand.org/t/MG327-2 and Syrian partners, was needed to destroy ISIS as a territorial entity. 510 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA388-1 2021 Implementing The Iran Threat Restraint Network (ITN) Changes in U.S. Four Models of Iran’s Regional Security Nonstate Client Policies to Partnerships Operationalize a Ariane M. Tabatabai, Jeffrey Martini, Becca Wasser Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint The authors describe the Iran Miranda Priebe, Bryan Rooney, Threat Network (ITN), a loose network of non-Iranian, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Jeffrey Martini, nonstate groups supported by Tehran. The ITN sits at Stephanie Pezard the intersection of two threats—Iran and nonstate actors—highlighted in recent U.S. policy as priorities for Under a realist grand strategy of restraint, the United the U.S. government to counter. The authors explore Iran’s States would adopt a more cooperative approach toward relationship with the ITN to help the U.S. government other powers (such as Russia and Iran), reduce the size counter Iranian subversion in the region. of the U.S. military and forward presence, and end or 27 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RR4231 renegotiate some security commitments. The authors of this report suggest that advocates of restraint need to expand on their logic and conduct additional analysis. 182 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA739-1 WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP 2020 Chinese Investment in Israeli Technology Stabilizing Eastern and Infrastructure Syria After ISIS Security Implications James A. Schear, Jeffrey for Israel and the Martini, Eric Robinson, United States Michelle E. Miro, James Dobbins Shira Efron, Karen Schwindt, Emily Haskel The authors offer a sociocultural perspective on the human terrain Chinese investments in Israeli technology and infrastruc- of the Middle Euphrates River ture pose security risks for Israel and the United States. Valley, assess the region’s most- The primary concern pertains to Chinese ownership of urgent needs, examine how stabilization efforts might companies that might possess sensitive technology or data. proceed, and analyze the pluses and minuses of different The operation of infrastructure projects also affords China