CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST PUBLIC POLICY

International Programs at RAND

RAND MIDDLE EAST RESEARCH RAND CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST PUBLIC POLICY

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP The RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy brings together analytic excellence and regional expertise from across the RAND Corporation to address the most critical political, social, and economic challenges facing the Middle East today. We focus not only on near-term challenges but also on critical long-term trends and solutions.

Our goal is to inform policy in order to help improve the security and well-being of people living in the region. Our work in the region helps decisionmakers better understand how to tackle their domestic challenges and build capacity in ways that will make their societies safer, smarter, and more prosperous.

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP As part of a nonprofit and nonpartisan organization, RAND’s Middle East experts are committed to high-quality, objective research and analysis. They hold advanced degrees in an array of disciplines and specialize in a uniquely broad range of capabilities, including long-range planning and forecasting, risk assessment, and program evaluation. Many of our Middle East experts have advanced regional language skills and were born or have lived in the region.

RAND’s Middle East work is funded by governments, by private foundations, and through the generous philanthropic support of individual donors and the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy Advisory Board.

Many of our publications are available in Arabic at www.rand.org/ar

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP PEACE AND PROSPERITY ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST

Reimagining U.S. Peace Dividend Strategy in the Widening the Middle East Economic Growth and Sustainable Development Benefits Partnerships, Strategic of the Abraham Accords Investments Daniel Egel, Shira Efron, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Linda Linda Robinson Robinson, Jeffrey Martini, Nathan Vest, Ashley L. Rhoades The Abraham Accords represent a major political break- through. Four Muslim nations—the United Arab Emirates, RAND researchers offer a new framework for a Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco—have launched diplomatic comprehensive U.S. policy toward the Middle East. initiatives to normalize bilateral ties with Israel. If these The existing strategy has relied heavily on military ties evolve into multilateral accords fostering trade and power, has focused on regional threats, and has largely economic integration, they could generate 150,000 new fallen short in advancing U.S. interests and adapting to jobs and $75 billion in new economic activity for the four regional realities. Moving forward, the United States signatories. These estimates could grow to more than should recalibrate its policy and programs to place 4 million new jobs and $1 trillion in economic value if the greater emphasis on economic investments, improved accords expand to 11 nations, including Israel. governance, strengthened diplomacy, and efforts 8 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/PEA1149-1 focused on the needs of people in the region. To foster better outcomes, the United States should adopt a long- term time horizon for reducing conflict and supporting growth and development; apply greater selectivity and rigorous assessment to assistance programs; and work multilaterally with global and regional partners to address common challenges.

186 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA958-1 Executive summary: 12 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA958-2

Building an Enduring Peace in Yemen Lessons from Five Years of RAND Research Daniel Egel, Trevor Johnston, Ashley L. Rhoades, Eric Robinson

This report traces the origins of Yemen’s civil war, assesses its costs, identifies the drivers of conflict and mediation, and discusses the political, economic, and military factors affecting the peace process. An enduring peace requires a coordinated inter- national approach and the formation of an international body with the resources to support a decades-long process of reconciliation, reconstruction, and redevelopment.

57 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA733-1

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP PEACE AND PROSPERITY FOR ISRAELIS AND PALESTINIANS

Alternatives in the Building a Successful Israeli-Palestinian Palestinian State Conflict The RAND Palestinian State Daniel Egel, C. Ross Anthony, Study Team Shira Efron, Rita T. Karam, Mary E. Vaiana, Charles P. Ries In this examination of how an independent Palestinian state, if The latest installment of decades created, could succeed, the authors of RAND work to resolve the weigh options for strengthening Israeli-Palestinian conflict culls governance, security, economic results from 33 focus groups—conducted with West Bank development, access to water, health, health care, and Palestinians, Gazan Palestinians, Israeli Jews, and Israeli education. The authors estimate the financial resources Arabs—on the viability of five alternative futures: the needed for successful development over the first decade status quo, a two-state solution, confederation, annexa- of independence. tion, and a one-state solution. The two-state solution was 452 pages, 2007, www.rand.org/t/MG146-1 deemed the most viable, but all four groups were skeptical of it. Identifying incentives to encourage Israelis to explore the two-state solution will likely be critical to its success. Helping a Palestinian 180 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA725-1 State Succeed Key Findings The Costs of the The RAND Palestinian State Israeli-Palestinian Study Team Conflict Cost estimates suggest that the C. Ross Anthony, Daniel Egel, funding necessary for implementing Charles P. Ries, Craig A. Bond, the RAND team’s recommendations Andrew Liepman, Jeffrey to help a Palestinian state succeed Martini, Steven Simon, Shira is within the combined capacity of international resources Efron, Bradley D. Stein, and private investors. The analyses assume a peace accord, Lynsay Ayer, Mary E. Vaiana but many of the recommendations could be implemented constructively prior to Palestinian independence.

A two-state solution would provide by far the best eco- 86 pages, 2007, www.rand.org/t/MG146z1-1 nomic outcomes for both Israelis and Palestinians. A return to violence would have profoundly negative eco- nomic consequences for both parties. Taking advantage of the economic opportunities of a two-state solution would require substantial investments from both parties and from the international community.

292 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/RR740-1

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP The Arc The Air War Against A Formal Structure for the Islamic State a Palestinian State The Role of Airpower Doug Suisman, Steven Simon, in Operation Inherent Glenn Robinson, C. Ross Resolve Anthony, Michael Schoenbaum Becca Wasser, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Jeffrey Martini, The authors explore options for Alexandra T. Evans, Karl P. strengthening the housing and Mueller, Nathaniel Edenfield, transportation infrastructure of a Gabrielle Tarini, Ryan potential independent Palestinian Haberman, Jalen Zeman state. This examination includes initial cost estimates for improving and expanding the Airpower played a pivotal role in the U.S.-led fight against infrastructure necessary for successful development the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from 2014 to 2019, in the context of a large and rapidly growing Palestinian but airpower alone would likely not have sufficed. The population. combination of airpower and ground forces, led by Iraqi 106 pages, 2005, www.rand.org/t/MG327-2 and Syrian partners, was needed to destroy ISIS as a territorial entity.

510 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA388-1 2021

Implementing The Iran Threat Restraint Network (ITN) Changes in U.S. Four Models of Iran’s Regional Security Nonstate Client Policies to Partnerships Operationalize a Ariane M. Tabatabai, Jeffrey Martini, Becca Wasser Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint The authors describe the Iran Miranda Priebe, Bryan Rooney, Threat Network (ITN), a loose network of non-Iranian, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Jeffrey Martini, nonstate groups supported by Tehran. The ITN sits at Stephanie Pezard the intersection of two threats—Iran and nonstate actors—highlighted in recent U.S. policy as priorities for Under a realist grand strategy of restraint, the United the U.S. government to counter. The authors explore Iran’s States would adopt a more cooperative approach toward relationship with the ITN to help the U.S. government other powers (such as Russia and Iran), reduce the size counter Iranian subversion in the region. of the U.S. military and forward presence, and end or

27 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RR4231 renegotiate some security commitments. The authors of this report suggest that advocates of restraint need to expand on their logic and conduct additional analysis.

182 pages, 2021, www.rand.org/t/RRA739-1

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP 2020 Chinese Investment in Israeli Technology Stabilizing Eastern and Infrastructure Syria After ISIS Security Implications James A. Schear, Jeffrey for Israel and the Martini, Eric Robinson, United States Michelle E. Miro, James Dobbins Shira Efron, Karen Schwindt, Emily Haskel The authors offer a sociocultural perspective on the human terrain Chinese investments in Israeli technology and infrastruc- of the Middle Euphrates River ture pose security risks for Israel and the United States. Valley, assess the region’s most- The primary concern pertains to Chinese ownership of urgent needs, examine how stabilization efforts might companies that might possess sensitive technology or data. proceed, and analyze the pluses and minuses of different The operation of infrastructure projects also affords China ways to overcome the regional challenges. unique surveillance opportunities and possibly economic

88 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/RR2541 and political levers of influence. 148 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/RR3176

Barriers to Employment That Could the Houthis Be Women Face in Egypt the Next Hizballah? Policy Challenges and Iranian Proxy Considerations Development in Yemen Louay Constant, Ifeanyi and the Future of the Edochie, Peter Glick, Jeffrey Houthi Movement Martini, Chandra Garber Trevor Johnston, Matthew Lane, Abigail Casey, Heather J. Williams, Egyptian society is not fully reaping the rewards of its Ashley L. Rhoades, James Sladden, investments in human capital, as evidenced by the low Nathan Vest, Jordan R. Reimer, Ryan Haberman employment of Egyptian women despite their growing educational attainment. The authors examine constraints If the Houthi fighters in Yemen cannot transition into an on the employment of young Egyptian women, consider effective governing party, Iran will likely maintain a initiatives underway to address the constraints, and largely transactional relationship with them. But if the suggest policy considerations for building on current Houthis can establish themselves as a competent governing efforts to empower young women economically. and political force in Yemen, Iran might gain a formidable 36 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/RR2868 partner in its strategy of pushing back against Saudi Arabia. (English/Arabic) 146 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/RR2551

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP How Small Businesses COVID-19 Air Are Coping with the Traffic Visualization Impact of COVID-19 Air Passenger Results from a Survey Transmission Risk in Turkey and the to GCC Countries Middle East Originated from Stijn Hoorens, Lucy Hocking, Outside the Region Clément Fays Adam R. Grissom, Christopher A. Mouton, Nearly 80 percent of owners of small- and medium-sized Russell Hanson, John P. Godges businesses surveyed in the Middle East and Turkey said the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on Many believed that Iran was largely responsible for spreading their companies was negative, while one in six said it was COVID-19 in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. positive. Nearly all said they would need some form of But the GCC countries are highly connected globally. Most support to protect their businesses. of the COVID-19 transmission risk for most GCC countries

19 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/RRA607-1 originated from air travelers outside the region, first from China and then from elsewhere.

2020, www.rand.org/t/RRA248-5 Local Government Reform and the Socioeconomic Working to Support Gap in Israel Policy Change Through an Advocacy Building Toward a Coalition in Israel New Future Amir Levi, Tal Wolfson, A Case Study Steven W. Popper, Shira Efron, Ben Baruch, Emma Disley Anamarie A. Whitaker, Jennifer J. Li This case study examines the Coalition for Education from Birth and its work to bring This report discusses three ways to strengthen local gov- about change in childcare regulation and provision in ernment in Israel. The authors propose a district model to Israel. The purpose is to identify and document lessons overcome obstacles faced by small and poor municipalities. learned from the process of setting up and running a The authors propose a model for hiring municipal managers coalition to effect policy change. to address cronyism and a dearth of skilled leadership in 32 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/RRA245-1 peripheral localities. Finally, the authors describe educa- (English/Hebrew) tion services that municipalities could offer under the proposed district structure.

128 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/RR3204 (English/Arabic/Hebrew)

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Russia’s Limit An Enduring of Advance American Scenarios Commitment in Iraq Ben Connable, Abby Doll, Shaping a Long-Term Alyssa Demus, Dara Massicot, Strategy with Iraqi Clint Reach, Anthony Atler, Army Partners William Mackenzie, Matthew Povlock, Lauren Skrabala Ben Connable

Despite Russia’s involvement in Syria’s civil war, Russia’s The author argues that the United States should make a ability to deploy ground forces is strong only near its west- full and enduring commitment of long-term assistance ern border and within range of its air defenses. Its ability to the Iraqi Army. Iran, Russia, and China could all offer to deploy ground combat units drops off sharply as the fiercely competitive military assistance deals to Iraq. The geographic distance grows. Russia’s deployment capacity best way for the United States to cultivate an enduring is further constrained by limited forces and transportation commitment to Iraq is through robust, long-term assis- assets, a lack of international support, and an insufficient tance to the Iraqi Army. ability to sustain its deployed forces. 56 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/PE353

62 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/RR2563z1

Escalation with Iran Weighing U.S. Outcomes and Troop Withdrawal Implications for U.S. from Iraq Interests and Regional Strategic Risks and Stability Recommendations Ariane M. Tabatabai Ben Connable, James Dobbins, This testimony, presented to the Howard J. Shatz, Raphael S. Cohen, Becca Wasser House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism, The authors conclude that supporting a stable and friendly explains the internal dynamics within Iran, the regime’s Iraq is in the long-term interest of the United States, and expected courses of action, and the U.S. options for moving that doing so does not require prolonging the combat assis- forward. According to Tabatabai, “An acceptable outcome to tance mission in Iraq over the long run—but that doing so both parties is likely to involve a single comprehensive deal.” does require maintaining a small force of military advisers to help train and develop Iraqi military capabilities so that 10 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/CT522 Iraq can defend itself.

38 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/PE362

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Turkey’s Nationalist The Evolving Israel- Course China Relationship Implications for the Shira Efron, Howard J. Shatz, U.S.-Turkish Strategic Arthur Chan, Emily Haskel, Partnership and the Lyle J. Morris, Andrew Scobell

U.S. Army Given the growing relationship Stephen J. Flanagan, F. Stephen between Israel and China, the Larrabee, Anika Binnendijk, authors find that Israel would Katherine Costello, benefit from a better understanding Shira Efron, James Hoobler, Magdalena Kirchner, of the opportunities and challenges associated with deeper Jeffrey Martini, Alireza Nader, Peter A. Wilson ties with China and that the United States would benefit from working more closely with Israel to advance a mutu- This report discusses the challenges for the U.S.-Turkish ally agreed-upon China-related agenda. partnership and ways to sustain it. The authors describe 222 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/RR2641 the political, social, and economic trends affecting Turkey’s (English/Hebrew) internal dynamics and global interests; explore its changing relations with its neighbors and partners; compare how its interests and those of its neighbors and partners converge, diverge, or conflict; and assess the implications for Turkey’s Understanding future, U.S. defense planning, and the U.S. Army. Russia’s Intervention 276 pages, 2020, www.rand.org/t/RR2589 in Syria Samuel Charap, Elina Treyger, Edward Geist 2019 Russia’s military intervention in Syria’s civil war raises questions Crossing the about potential similar actions Digital Divide outside post-Soviet Eurasia. The authors assess where and under what conditions Moscow might intervene by analyz- Applying Technology ing the factors that drive such decisionmaking. Beyond the to the Global 2015 intervention in Syria, the authors assess the likelihood Refugee Crisis of Russian interventions in four other conflicts outside Russia’s immediate neighborhood: Libya, Afghanistan, Shelly Culbertson, James Yemen, and Syria itself before 2015. Dimarogonas, Katherine Costello, Serafina Lanna 32 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/RR3180

For refugees, technology can provide internet connectivity and access, support communication with family and friends, extend education and employment opportunities, facilitate distribution of housing and other resources, enable financial access, and store information about a displaced person’s identity. However, issues of data rights and responsibilities are growing more urgent and complex as aid operations create and collect increasing amounts of personal data.

120 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/RR4322

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Iran’s National Defining and Security Debate Understanding the Implications for Future Next Generation U.S.-Iran Negotiations of Salafi-Jihadis Ariane M. Tabatabai Richard C. Baffa, Nathan Vest, Wing Yi Chan, Abby Fanlo Iran’s domestic debates affect its foreign policy and national security postures. Understanding areas of both How will political upheavals in the Middle East, socioeco- consensus and division among Iran’s elite is critical to nomic trends in the Muslim world, and rising digital developing a realistic policy toward Iran. Areas of con- connectivity affect susceptibility to radicalization in sensus signify regime redlines; disagreements could offer Generation Z, or those born between 1997 and 2012? openings in negotiations among Iran, the United States, Their unprecedented familiarity with and connection and other members of the international community. to the internet portend an adaptive, tech-savvy future

35 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/PE344 terrorist threat. (English/Arabic) 16 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/PE341

Fighting Shadows Return and Expand? in the Dark The Finances and Understanding and Prospects of the Countering Coercion Islamic State After in Cyberspace the Caliphate Quentin E. Hodgson, Patrick B. Johnston, Mona Logan Ma, Krystyna Marcinek, Alami, Colin P. Clarke, Karen Schwindt Howard J. Shatz

The authors explore how Russia, The Islamic State will almost China, Iran, and North Korea have used cyber operations certainly attempt a comeback, which will require money. and whether this use constitutes cyber coercion. Russia Criminal activities will prove useful. The group likely and North Korea appear more likely than China and Iran to has detailed information on those it once ruled, and it have used cyber operations as a coercive tool. The United appears to have sizable assets in reserve. The United States and its allies need to develop methods to discern States will need to stay involved with several counter– cyber coercion as it emerges, plus strategies to counter it. Islamic State activities, from counterfinance to potential military action. 56 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/RR2961 168 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/RR3046

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Africa’s Role in Countering Nation-Building Sectarianism in An Examination of the Middle East African-Led Peace Jeffrey Martini, Dalia Dassa Operations Kaye, Becca Wasser, Amanda Rizkallah, Justin Gengler, James Dobbins, James Pumzile Kathleen Reedy, Ami Carpenter Machakaire, Andrew Radin, Stephanie Pezard, Jonathan Case studies of Lebanon, Bahrain, S. Blake, Laura Bosco, Nathan Syria, and Iraq suggest that many Chandler, Wandile Langa, factors can help communities resist sectarianism: mecha- Charles Nyuykonge, Kitenge Fabrice Tunda nisms for mediating the onset of conflict, trust between community leaders, activist movements that transcend What is most remarkable and commendable about Africa’s sectarian identities, strong border monitoring, physical institutional role in regional peace operations is the level infrastructure that encourages sectarian mixing, and of cooperation generally achieved among the states most smaller socioeconomic gaps. directly affected by the conflicts. African countries do not all agree with one another, but they have established effec- 154 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/RR2799 tive consultation processes and are able to form ad hoc (English/Arabic) coalitions to pursue shared interests.

320 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/RR2978 The Limits of Russian Strategy The U.S. Army in the Middle East and the Battle for Becca Wasser Baghdad Lessons Learned— Russia is seemingly resurgent in the Middle East, using a transactional approach that is focused And Still to Be Learned on the short term, to develop diplomatic and economic David E. Johnson, Agnes relationships across the region. The author discusses how Gereben Schaefer, Brenna the very elements that make Russia’s strategy successful Allen, Raphael S. Cohen, in the short term will ultimately limit the depth of Russia’s Gian Gentile, James Hoobler, regional approach in the long term. Michael Schwille, Jerry M. 27 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/PE340 Sollinger, Sean M. Zeigler (English/Arabic)

To minimize the adaptation the U.S. Army will have to undergo when called to serve in similar circumstances, this report aims to help the Army continue to institutionalize the lessons from the Iraq War and the Battle for Baghdad. Instability and insurgency are part of the future. If history is any guide, the United States will look to the Army to deal with these challenges.

318 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/RR3076

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Estimating the The Future of Israeli- Economic Benefits Turkish Relations of Levant Integration Shira Efron Daniel Egel, Andrew Parasiliti, Charles P. Ries, Dori Walker Although the Israeli and Turkish business communities would Economic integration in the like to resume former levels of Levant—in the form of a engagement, relations are tense in comprehensive free trade agree- the Israeli and Turkish diplomatic ment among Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and security spheres because of Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey—could distrust of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and raise the average gross domestic product of these countries differences between the countries over the future of Syria by 3 to 7 percent, create at least 0.7 million to 1.7 million and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. new jobs, and reduce regional unemployment by 8 to 68 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR2445 18 percent. An accompanying online tool allows policy- makers and the public to project the economic dividend from economic integration. Health Sector Reform 48 pages, 2019, www.rand.org/t/RR2375 in the Kurdistan Online tool: www.rand.org/t/TL302 Region—Iraq Primary Care 2018 Management Information System, Physician Dual Practice Opportunities for All Finance Reform, and Mutually Beneficial Quality of Care Training Opportunities for C. Ross Anthony, Melinda Moore, Lee H. Hilborne, Syrians and Host Anne Rooney, Scot Hickey, Youngbok Ryu, Countries in Middle Laura Botwinick Eastern Labor Markets This project for the Kurdistan Regional Government Krishna B. Kumar, Shelly focuses on developing and using a primary care manage- Culbertson, Louay Constant, ment information system for the region’s health care system; Shanthi Nataraj, Fatih Unlu, Kathryn E. Bouskill, health financing reform; and hospital patient safety training Joy S. Moini, Katherine Costello, Gursel Rafig within the context of health quality improvement. oglu Aliyev, Fadia Afashe 116 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/RR1658

This report examines labor market opportunities for 116 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR1658z1 (Arabic) displaced Syrians in Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon and 116 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR1658z2 (Kurdish) tailors recommendations to each country. These include offering language classes (in Turkey), assessing where jobs are needed and letting migrants move there, and improving worker certification processes so that qualified migrants can get jobs in their areas of expertise.

310 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR2653 (English/Arabic)

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Lessons from Others An Overview of for Future U.S. Current Trends in Army Operations Terrorism and Illicit in and Through Finance the Information Lessons from the Islamic Environment State in Iraq and Syria Christopher Paul, Colin P. and Other Emerging Clarke, Michael Schwille, Threats Jakub P. Hlávka, Michael A. Colin P. Clarke Brown, Steven Davenport, Isaac R. Porche III, Joel Harding This testimony, presented before the House Financial Services Committee Subcommittee on Terrorism and This comparative analysis of 12 information campaigns Illicit Finance, defines terrorist financing, analyzes highlights areas in which others excel to guide the U.S. how terrorists generate income, describes how the Islamic Army in either adopting or countering the practices. State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) may attempt to finance a A companion volume of case studies supports this renewed campaign of terror, and assesses the campaign to analysis with detailed assessments of the strategic counter ISIS finances. goals and information-related activities of numerous allies, adversaries, and potential adversaries, including 9 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/CT498 Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, al Qaeda, and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.

66 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR1925z1 Preparing for Case studies: 318 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR1925z2 “Post-ISIL” Access Challenges Robust Basing to Modern Political Support Operations Warfare Against Nonstate Current Practices and Adversaries Possible Responses Christopher A. Mouton, Linda Robinson, Todd C. Adam R. Grissom Helmus, Raphael S. Cohen, Alireza Nader, Andrew Radin, Researchers developed an interactive tool, called sequential Madeline Magnuson, basing, to identify robust basing options in recurrently Katya Migacheva changing environments, such as Africa and the Middle East. The tool is premised on the paradoxical constancy of The authors examine historical antecedents and current-day ephemeral access. The output of the tool consists of heat practices of political warfare through case studies of maps that highlight key points of strategic geography. Russia, Iran, and the Islamic State. The report concludes 7 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR2493 with recommendations for countering political warfare by (English/Arabic) creating a more-effective, coordinated, and cost-sensitive approach to statecraft. This approach includes specific measures for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. mili- tary, particularly the special operations community.

354 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR1772

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP The Public Health What Might Happen Impacts of Gaza’s if Palestinians Start Water Crisis Voting in Jerusalem Analysis and Policy Municipal Elections? Options Gaming the End of Shira Efron, Jordan R. the Electoral Boycott Fischbach, Ilana Blum, Rouslan I. and the Future of City Karimov, Melinda Moore Politics

This report reviews the state of Jonathan S. Blake, Elizabeth M. water supply and water sanitation in Gaza, examines the Bartels, Shira Efron, Yitzhak Reiter water-related risks to public health in Gaza, and explains the potential regional public health risks for Israel and Since Israel’s annexation of East Jerusalem after the 1967 Egypt. The authors recommend a number of steps to war, Palestinian residents have largely boycotted municipal ameliorate the crisis and to decrease the potential for a elections to avoid legitimating Israeli rule. A game conducted regional public health disaster. by a RAND team suggests that the Israeli and municipal governments would welcome increased Palestinian turnout 108 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR2515 as long as it was not too high and that elected Palestinians (English/Arabic) would likely be able to affect policy only at a low level.

74 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR2743 Sectarianism in the Middle East Alcohol and Implications for the International Football United States Tournaments Heather M. Robinson, Ben Jirka Taylor, Lucy Strang, Connable, David E. Thaler, Emma Disley Ali G. Scotten

As part of a project conducted Many Westerners view unrest in for Qatar University in advance the Middle East through the lens of of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, religious sectarianism, but the complexities of human iden- a RAND Europe team found no tity, regional culture, and history do not lend themselves to robust evidence that alcohol control such a simplistic interpretation. For instance, the drivers strategies, such as bans on consumption, were effective at of conflict between Sunni and Shi’a Muslims are mostly reducing antisocial and violent behavior at international political in nature, and the political and social contexts football matches. But existing alcohol restrictions in Qatar inform the sectarian identities. The United States should could make the strategies more effective. eschew policies that institutionalize sectarianism. 21 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR2738 144 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR1681 (English/Arabic)

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Violent and Antisocial ADDITIONAL MIDDLE EAST TITLES Behaviour at Football Matches in the Middle 2017 East and North Africa Beating the Islamic State Scoping the Evidence Selecting a New Strategy for Iraq and Syria Madeline Nightingale, Lucy Ben Connable, Natasha Lander, Kimberly Jackson 98 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/RR1562 Strang, Emma Disley, Mohyi Maziad Building Armies, Building Nations Toward a New Approach to Security Force Assistance This case study identifies potential Michael Shurkin, John Gordon IV, Bryan Frederick, Christopher G. Pernin directions for future research on football violence, such as 252 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/RR1832 generating data on the prevalence of violence at football events in the Middle East and North Africa and evaluating From Cast Lead to Protective Edge strategies to prevent and reduce the occurrence of such Lessons from Israel’s Wars in Gaza Raphael S. Cohen, David E. Johnson, David E. Thaler, violence. Brenna Allen, Elizabeth M. Bartels, James Cahill, Shira Efron 20 pages, 2018, www.rand.org/t/RR2777 246 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/RR1888 (English/Arabic) Implications of the Security Cooperation Office Transition in Afghanistan for Special Operations Forces An Abbreviated Report of the Study’s Primary Findings Jason H. Campbell, Richard S. Girven, Ben Connable, 2017 Jonah Blank, Raphael S. Cohen, Larry Hanauer, William Young, Linda Robinson, Sean Mann 46 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/RR1201z1 Making Victory Count Jihadist Violence in the Caucasus After Defeating ISIS Russia Between Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency Colin P. Clarke Stabilization Challenges 9 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/CT483 in Mosul and Beyond A Peace Plan for Syria Shelly Culbertson, Linda James Dobbins, Philip Gordon, Jeffrey Martini Robinson 11 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/PE182

Preventing State Collapse in Syria Through a case study of Mosul, Andrew Parasiliti, Kathleen Reedy, Becca Wasser the authors investigate the urgent 20 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/PE219 humanitarian and stabilization needs in Iraq and offer recommendations for immediate actions to stabilize RAND Program Evaluation Toolkit for Countering Violent Extremism the country after military operations to liberate it from Todd C. Helmus, Miriam Matthews, Rajeev Ramchand, ISIS. The gains earned through combat need to be consoli- Sina Beaghley, David Stebbins, Amanda Kadlec, Michael A. dated through adequate humanitarian and stabilization Brown, Aaron Kofner, Joie D. Acosta measures to secure peace. 146 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/TL243

98 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/RR2076 Regional Foreign Policy Dynamics and Their Implications (English/Arabic) for the Mediterranean Region Christopher S. Chivvis, Benjamin Fishman 24 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/PE223

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Reimagining the Character of Urban Operations for China in the Middle East the U.S. Army The Wary Dragon How the Past Can Inform the Present and Future Andrew Scobell, Alireza Nader Gian Gentile, David E. Johnson, Lisa Saum-Manning, Raphael S. 110 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1229 Cohen, Shara Williams, Carrie Lee, Michael Shurkin, Brenna Allen, Sarah Soliman, James L. Doty III Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency in Somalia 214 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/RR1602 Assessing the Campaign Against Al Shabaab Seth G. Jones, Andrew Liepman, Nathan Chandler Rolling Back the Islamic State 106 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1539 Seth G. Jones, James Dobbins, Daniel Byman, Christopher S. Chivvis, Ben Connable, Jeffrey Martini, Eric Robinson, Deception in Covert Nuclear Weapons Development Nathan Chandler A Framework to Identify, Analyze, and Mitigate Future 296 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/RR1912 Long-Term Deception Efforts Brian J. Gordon Russian Strategy in the Middle East 318 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RGSD370 James Sladden, Becca Wasser, Ben Connable, Sarah Grand-Clement Developing Long-Term Socioeconomic Strategy in Israel 15 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/PE236 Institutions, Processes, and Supporting Information Howard J. Shatz, Steven W. Popper, Sami Friedrich, Smarter Power, Stronger Partners, Volume II Shmuel Abramzon, Anat Brodsky, Roni Harel, Ofir Cohen Trends in Force Projection Against Potential Adversaries 258 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR275 Duncan Long, Terrence Kelly, David C. Gompert, Scott Boston, Michael S. Chase, Jeffrey Engstrom Evaluation of the Emergency Education Response for Syrian 318 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/RR1359z1 Refugee Children and Host Communities in Jordan Shelly Culbertson, Tom Ling, Marie-Louise Henham, Jennie Troubled Waters Corbett, Rita T. Karam, Paulina Pankowska, Catherine L. A Snapshot of Security Challenges in the Saunders, Jacopo Bellasio, Ben Baruch Mediterranean Region 141 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1203 James Black, Alexandra Hall, Giacomo Persi Paoli, Richard Warnes Examining ISIS Support and Opposition Networks on Twitter 35 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/PE221 Elizabeth Bodine-Baron, Todd C. Helmus, Madeline Magnuson, Zev Winkelman What Factors Cause Individuals to Reject Violent Extremism 80 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1328 in Yemen? Eric Robinson, P. Kathleen Frier, Kim Cragin, Melissa A. Bradley, Foundations of the Islamic State: Management, Money, and Daniel Egel, Bryce Loidolt, Paul S. Steinberg Terror in Iraq, 2005–2010 72 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/RR1727 Patrick B. Johnston, Jacob N. Shapiro, Howard J. Shatz, Benjamin Bahney, Danielle F. Jung, Patrick Ryan, Jonathan When the Islamic State Comes to Town Wallace The Economic Impact of Islamic State Governance in Iraq 348 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1192 and Syria Eric Robinson, Daniel Egel, Patrick B. Johnston, Sean Mann, Initiatives to Improve Quality of Education in the Kurdistan Alexander D. Rothenberg, David Stebbins Region — Iraq 260 pages, 2017, www.rand.org/t/RR1970 Administration, School Monitoring, Private School Policies, and Teacher Training Georges Vernez, Shelly Culbertson, Louay Constant, Rita T. Karam 166 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR960z2 (Kurdish) 2016 Israel’s Iran Policies After the Nuclear Deal Assessment of the Politico-Military Campaign to Counter ISIL Dalia Dassa Kaye and Options for Adaptation 24 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/PE207 Linda Robinson 92 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1290 The Outlook for Arab Gulf Cooperation Jeffrey Martini, Becca Wasser, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Daniel Egel, Authorities for Military Operations Against Terrorist Groups Cordaye Ogletree The State of the Debate and Options for Congress 100 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1429 Christopher Chivvis and Andrew Liepman 62 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1145-1 Regional Implications of an Independent Kurdistan Alireza Nader, Larry Hanauer, Brenna Allen, Ali G. Scotten Calculating the Gross Regional Product of the Kurdistan 178 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1452 Region—Iraq Kurdish Translation Rethinking Coordination of Services to Refugees in Urban Shmuel Abramzon, Nicholas Burger, Peter Glick, Krishna B. Areas Kumar, Cheryl K. Montemayor, Nelly Josefina Mejia Gonzalez, Managing the Crisis in Jordan and Lebanon Shanthi Nataraj, Francisco Perez-Arce, Claude Messan Setodji Shelly Culbertson, Olga Oliker, Ben Baruch, Ilana Blum 107 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1405z3 148 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1485

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Smarter Power, Stronger Partners, Volume I C. Ross Anthony, Louay Constant, Shelly Culbertson, Peter Glick, Exploiting U.S. Advantages to Prevent Aggression Krishna B. Kumar, Robin Meili, Melinda Moore, Howard J. Shatz, Terrence Kelly, David C. Gompert, Duncan Long Georges Vernez 278 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1359 58 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/RR873

Task Force for Business and Stability Operations The Strategic Perspective and Long-Term Socioeconomic Lessons from Afghanistan Strategies for Israel S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Daniel Egel, Ilana Blum Key Methods with an Application to Aging 136 pages, 2016, www.rand.org/t/RR1243 Steven W. Popper, Howard J. Shatz, Shmuel Abramzon, Claude Berrebi, Shira Efron 186 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/RR488

2015 The Syrian Refugee Crisis and U.S. National Security Seth G. Jones An Assessment of the Counter-ISIL Campaign 10 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT444 One Year After Mosul Linda Robinson The Terrorism Threat to the United States and Implications 15 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT435 for Refugees Addendum: 11 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT435z1 Seth G. Jones 10 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT433 Containing Middle East Terror: Measures to Reduce the Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode Returning from Syria and Iraq The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning from Syria and Iraq Brian Michael Jenkins Brian Michael Jenkins 13 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT427 12 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT426 Addendum: 13 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT426z1 The Continuing Lure of Violent Jihad Brian Michael Jenkins 7 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT429 2014 The Dynamics of the Conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the Threat Posed by Homegrown Terrorists and Returning An Assessment of the Present and Future Labor Market in the Western Fighters Kurdistan Region—Iraq Brian Michael Jenkins Implications for Policies to Increase Private-Sector Employment 21 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT443 Howard J. Shatz, Louay Constant, Jill E. Luoto, Alexandria Smith, Shmuel Abramzon Education of Syrian Refugee Children 136 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/RR489 Managing the Crisis in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan Shelly Culbertson, Louay Constant The Days After a Deal with Iran 114 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/RR859 Continuity and Change in Iranian Foreign Policy Alireza Nader From Negative to Positive Stability 16 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/PE124 How the Syrian Refugee Crisis Can Improve Jordan’s Outlook Ben Connable The Days After a Deal with Iran 72 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/RR1069 Regional Responses to a Final Nuclear Agreement Dalia Dassa Kaye, Jeffrey Martini The Growing Strategic Threat of Radical Islamist Ideology 24 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/PE122 Rick Brennan, Jr. 10 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT422 The Days After a Deal with Iran U.S. Policies of Hedging and Engaging Historical Lessons for the Wars in Iraq and Syria Lynn E. Davis Seth G. Jones 12 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/PE125 15 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT431 Defeating the Islamic State in Iraq The Impact of Sanctions Relief on Iran Ben Connable Alireza Nader 11 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/CT418 8 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT442 Designing a System for Collecting Policy-Relevant Data for the The Implications of the Paris Terrorist Attack for American Kurdistan Region — Iraq Strategy in Syria and Homeland Security Sandra H. Berry, Nicholas Burger, Harun Dogo, Krishna B. Kumar, Brian Michael Jenkins Alessandro Malchiodi, Jeffrey Martini, Tewodaj Mengistu, 12 pages, 2015, www.rand.org/t/CT445 Howard J. Shatz, Alexandria Smith, Artur Usanov, Joanne K. Yoong 132 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/MG1184-1 Making an Impact in the Kurdistan Region—Iraq Summary of Four Studies to Assess the Present and Future Labor The Dynamics of Syria’s Civil War Market, Improve Technical Vocational Education and Training, Brian Michael Jenkins Reform the Health Sector, and Build Data Collection Capacity 24 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/PE115

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP The Future of Health Care in the Kurdistan Region — Iraq 2013 Toward an Effective, High-Quality System with an Emphasis on Primary Care Airpower Options for Syria Melinda Moore, C. Ross Anthony, Yee-Wei Lim, Spencer S. Jones, Assessing Objectives and Missions for Aerial Intervention Adrian Overton, Joanne K. Yoong Karl P. Mueller, Jeffrey Martini, Thomas Hamilton 250 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/MG1148-1 20 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/RR446

Improving Technical Vocational Education and Training in the Artists and the Arab Uprisings Kurdistan Region—Iraq Lowell H. Schwartz, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Jeffrey Martini Louay Constant, Shelly Culbertson, Cathy Stasz, Georges Vernez 100 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/RR271 100 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/RR277 Building Democracy on the Ashes of Authoritarianism in the Improving Turkish-Iraqi Border Security Arab World An Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach Workshop Summary Mustafa Oguz Laurel E. Miller, Jeffrey Martini 202 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/RGSD341 8 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/CF312

Iran’s Influence in Afghanistan Effective Policing for 21st-Century Israel Implications for the U.S. Drawdown Jessica Saunders, Steven W. Popper, Andrew R. Morral, Alireza Nader, Ali G. Scotten, Ahmad Rahmani, Robert Stewart, Robert C. Davis, Claude Berrebi, Kristin J. Leuschner, Shira Efron, Leila Mahnad Boaz Segalovitz, K. Jack Riley 70 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/RR616 110 pages, 2013, https://www.rand.org/t/RR287z1

Libya After Qaddafi Ending the U.S. War in Iraq Lessons and Implications for the Future The Final Transition, Operational Maneuver, and Christopher S. Chivvis, Jeffrey Martini Disestablishment of United States Forces–Iraq (USF-I) 116 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/RR577 Richard R. Brennan, Jr., Charles P. Ries, Larry Hanauer, Ben Connable, Terrence K. Kelly, Michael J. McNerney, Stephanie New Security and Justice Sector Partnership Models Young, Jason Campbell, K. Scott McMahon Implications of the Arab Uprisings 588 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/RR232 Michael J. McNerney, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Peter Mandaville, Terry Hagen Internet Freedom and Political Space 88 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/RR605 Olesya Tkacheva, Lowell H. Schwartz, Martin C. Libicki, Julie E. Taylor, Jeffrey Martini, Caroline Baxter A Persistent Threat 286 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/RR295 The Evolution of al Qa’ida and Other Salafi Jihadists Seth G. Jones Iran After the Bomb 108 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/RR637 How Would a Nuclear-Armed Tehran Behave? Alireza Nader Spillover from the Conflict in Syria 50 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/RR310 An Assessment of the Factors that Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence Knowledge-Based Economies and Basing Economies on William Young, David Stebbins, Bryan Frederick, Omar Al-Shahery Knowledge 84 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/RR609 Skills a Missing Link in GCC Countries Krishna B. Kumar, Desiree van Welsum Strategic Priorities for Improving Access to Quality Education 49 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/RR188 in the Kurdistan Region—Iraq Georges Vernez, Shelly Culbertson, Louay Constant RAND Review, Vol. 36, No. 3, Winter 2012–2013 150 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/MG1140-1 Cultural Oasis For Arab Children, Collected Works Offer Roads to Tolerance, Strategies for Private-Sector Development and Civil-Service Critical Thinking Reform in the Kurdistan Region—Iraq Gail L. Zellman, et al. Michael L. Hansen, Howard J. Shatz, Louay Constant, Alexandria 6 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/CP22-2013-01 Smith, Krishna B. Kumar, Heather Krull, Artur Usanov 130 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/MG1117-1 Rouhani’s Election Regime Retrenchment in the Face of Pressure When Jihadis Come Marching Home Alireza Nader The Terrorist Threat Posed by Westerners Returning from Syria 9 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/CT394 and Iraq Brian Michael Jenkins Syria as an Arena of Strategic Competition 40 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/PE130-1 Jeffrey Martini, Erin York, William Young 12 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/RR213 Youth in Jordan Transitions from Education to Employment The Terrorist Threat from Syria Ryan Andrew Brown, Louay Constant, Peter Glick, Audra K. Grant Seth G. Jones 48 pages, 2014, www.rand.org/t/rr556 10 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/CT388

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Turkish-Iranian Relations in a Changing Middle East 17 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/CT377 F. Stephen Larrabee, Alireza Nader Addendum: 10 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/CT377z1 58 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/RR258 Qatar’s School Transportation System Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt Supporting Safety, Efficiency, and Service Quality Jeffrey Martini, Stephen Worman Keith Henry, Obaid Younossi, Maryah Al-Dafa, Shelly Culbertson, 16 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/RR223 Michael G. Mattock, Thomas Light, Charlene Rohr 154 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/MG1136 (English) 154 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/MG1136z1 (Arabic)

2012 RAND Review: Vol. 36, No. 1, Spring 2012 How to Defuse Iran’s Nuclear Threat: Bolster Diplomacy, Israeli All Glory Is Fleeting Security, and the Iranian Citizenry Insights from the Second Lebanon War James Dobbins, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Alireza Nader, Frederic Wehrey Russell W. Glenn 7 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/CP22-2012-04 119 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/MG708-1 Resolving Kirkuk Building the Future Lessons Learned from Settlements of Earlier Ethno-Territorial Summary of Four Studies to Develop the Private Sector, Conflicts Education, Health Care, and Data for Decisionmaking for Larry Hanauer, Laurel E. Miller the Kurdistan Region—Iraq 88 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/MG1198 C. Ross Anthony, Michael L. Hansen, Krishna B. Kumar, Howard J. Shatz, Georges Vernez Sustaining the Qatar National Research Fund 108 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/MG1185z1-2 (English/Kurdish) Gary Cecchine, Richard E. Darilek, Margaret C. Harrell, 108 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/MG1185-2 (English/Arabic) Michael G. Mattock, Shelly Culbertson, David S. Ortiz, Nicholas C. Maynard, S. R. Bohandy, Edward Balkovich, China and Iran Bruce R. Nardulli Economic, Political, and Military Relations 98 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/TR1125 Scott Warren Harold, Alireza Nader 46 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/OP351 Using Social Media to Gauge Iranian Public Opinion and Mood After the 2009 Election Containing Iran Sara Beth Elson, Douglas Yeung, Parisa Roshan, S. R. Bohandy, Strategies for Addressing the Iranian Nuclear Challenge Alireza Nader Robert Reardon 108 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/TR1161 206 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/MG1180

Democratization in the Arab World Prospects and Lessons 2011 from Around the Globe Laurel E. Miller, Jeffrey Martini, F. Stephen Larrabee, Coping with a Nuclearizing Iran Angel Rabasa, Stephanie Pezard, Julie E. Taylor, James Dobbins, Alireza Nader, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Tewodaj Mengistu Frederic Wehrey 434 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/MG1192 154 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/MG1154 Updated summary: 38 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/MG1192z1 (Arabic) Future Challenges for the Arab World 46 pages, 2013, www.rand.org/t/MG1192z2 (English) The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends Keith Crane, Steven Simon, Jeffrey Martini Launching the Qatar National Research Fund 118 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/TR912 Shelly Culbertson, Michael G. Mattock, Bruce R. Nardulli, Abdulrazaq Al-Kuwari, Gary Cecchine, Margaret C. Harrell, Identifying Arabic-Language Materials for Children That John A. Friel, Richard E. Darilek Promote Tolerance and Critical Thinking 104 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/TR722 Gail L. Zellman, Jeffrey Martini, Michal Perlman 84 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/TR856 Libya’s Post-Qaddafi Transition The Nation-Building Challenge The Impact of Information and Communication Technologies in Christopher S. Chivvis, Keith Crane, Peter Mandaville, the Middle East and North Africa Jeffrey Martini Flavia Tsang, Ohid Yaqub, Desiree van Welsum, Tony G. 20 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/RR129 Thompson-Starkey, Joanna Chataway 82 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/TR1163 The Muslim Brotherhood, Its Youth, and Implications for U.S. Engagement Iran’s Balancing Act in Afghanistan Jeffrey Martini, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Erin York Alireza Nader, Joya Laha 96 pages, 2012, www.rand.org/t/MG1247 30 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/OP322

New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts Iran’s Human Rights Abuses An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat Alireza Nader Brian Michael Jenkins 7 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/CT369

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Iran’s Nuclear Future Jeffrey Martini, Robert A. Guffey Critical U.S. Policy Choices 216 pages, 2010, www.rand.org/t/MG892 Lynn E. Davis, Jeffrey Martini, Alireza Nader, Dalia Dassa Kaye, James T. Quinlivan, Paul Steinberg Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads 152 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/MG1087 An Exploration of Iranian Leadership Dynamics David E. Thaler, Alireza Nader, Shahram Chubin, Jerrold D. Israel and Iran Green, Charlotte Lynch, Frederic Wehrey A Dangerous Rivalry 168 pages, 2010, www.rand.org/t/MG878 Dalia Dassa Kaye, Alireza Nader, Parisa Roshan 116 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/MG1143 Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen The Huthi Phenomenon The Long Shadow of 9/11 Barak Salmoni, Bryce Loidolt, Madeleine Wells America’s Response to Terrorism 410 pages, 2010, www.rand.org/t/MG962 Edited by Brian Michael Jenkins, John P. Godges 222 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/MG1107 Security in Iraq A Framework for Analyzing Emerging Threats as U.S. Managing Arab-Kurd Tensions in Northern Iraq After Forces Leave the Withdrawal of U.S. Troops David C. Gompert, Terrence K. Kelly, Jessica Watkins Larry Hanauer, Jeffrey Martini, Omar Al-Shahery 96 pages, 2010, www.rand.org/t/MG911 38 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/OP339 Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General The Next Supreme Leader Influence in the War with al-Qaeda Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran Paul K. Davis Alireza Nader, David E. Thaler, S. R. Bohandy 48 pages, 2010, www.rand.org/t/OP296 124 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/MG1052 Troubled Partnership Recommended Research Priorities for the Qatar Foundation’s U.S.-Turkish Relations in an Era of Global Geopolitical Change Environment and Energy Research Institute F. Stephen Larrabee Nidhi Kalra, Obaid Younossi, Kristy N. Kamarck, 162 pages, 2010, www.rand.org/t/MG899 Sarah Al-Dorani, Gary Cecchine, Aimee E. Curtright, Chaoling Feng, Aviva Litovitz, David R. Johnson, Mohammed Would-Be Warriors Makki, Shanthi Nataraj, David S. Ortiz, Parisa Roshan, Incidents of Jihadist Terrorist Radicalization in the United Constantine Samaras States Since September 11, 2001 296 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/MG1106 Brian Michael Jenkins 32 pages, 2010, www.rand.org/t/OP292 What Do Iranians Think? A Survey of Attitudes on the United States, the Nuclear Program, and the Economy Sara Beth Elson, Alireza Nader 2009 123 pages, 2011, www.rand.org/t/TR910 Barriers to the Broad Dissemination of Creative Works in the Arab World Lowell H. Schwartz, Todd C. Helmus, Dalia Dassa Kaye, 2010 Nadia Oweidat 58 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/MG879 Assessing Living Conditions in Iraq’s Anbar Province in 2009 Audra K. Grant, Martin C. Libicki Dangerous But Not Omnipotent 134 pages, 2010, www.rand.org/t/TR836 Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East Deradicalizing Islamist Extremists Frederic Wehrey, David E. Thaler, Nora Bensahel, Kim Cragin, Angel Rabasa, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Jeremy J. Ghez, Jerrold D. Green, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Nadia Oweidat, Jennifer J. Li Christopher Boucek 230 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/MG781 242 pages, 2010, www.rand.org/t/MG1053 Developing a School Finance System for K–12 Reform in Qatar How Insurgencies End Cassandra M. Guarino, Titus Galama, Louay Constant, Ben Connable, Martin C. Libicki Gabriella C. Gonzalez, Jeffery C. Tanner, Charles A. Goldman 268 pages, 2010, www.rand.org/t/MG965 136 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/MG839

The Impact of U.S. Military Drawdown in Iraq on Displaced and Implementation of the K–12 Education Reform in Qatar’s Other Vulnerable Populations Schools Analysis and Recommendations Gail L. Zellman, Gery W. Ryan, Rita Karam, Louay Constant, Olga Oliker, Audra K. Grant, Dalia Dassa Kaye Hanine Salem, Gabriella C. Gonzalez, Charles A. Goldman, 40 pages, 2010, www.rand.org/t/OP272 Hessa Al-Thani, Kholode Al-Obaidli 196 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/MG880 The Iraq Effect The Middle East After the Iraq War Lessons from the Field Frederic Wehrey, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Jessica Watkins, Developing and Implementing the Qatar Student Assessment System, 2002–2006

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP Gabriella C. Gonzalez, Vi-Nhuan Le, Markus Broer, Louis T. In Their Own Words Mariano, J. Enrique Froemel, Charles A. Goldman, Julie DaVanzo Voices of Jihad—Compilation and Commentary 92 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/TR620 David Aaron 348 pages, 2008, www.rand.org/t/MG602 The Mujahedin-e Khalq in Iraq A Policy Conundrum More Freedom, Less Terror? Jeremiah Goulka, Lydia Hansell, Elizabeth Wilke, Judith Larson Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World 132 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/MG871 Dalia Dassa Kaye, Frederic Wehrey, Audra K. Grant, Dale Stahl 226 pages, 2008, www.rand.org/t/MG772 Natural Gas and Israel’s Energy Future Near-Term Decisions from a Strategic Perspective The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey Steven W. Popper, Claude Berrebi, James Griffin, Thomas Light, Angel Rabasa, F. Stephen Larrabee Endy M. Daehner, Keith Crane 134 pages, 2008, www.rand.org/t/MG726 186 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/MG927 Turkey as a U.S. Security Partner Occupying Iraq F. Stephen Larrabee A History of the Coalition Provisional Authority 48 pages, 2008, www.rand.org/t/MG694 James Dobbins, Seth G. Jones, Benjamin Runkle, Siddharth Mohandas 410 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/MG847 2007 The Rise of the Pasdaran Assessing the Domestic Roles of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Education for a New Era Guards Corps Design and Implementation of K–12 Education Reform in Qatar Frederic Wehrey, Jerrold D. Green, Brian Nichiporuk, Alireza Dominic J. Brewer, Catherine H. Augustine, Gail L. Zellman, Nader, Lydia Hansell, Rasool Nafisi, S. R. Bohandy Gery W. Ryan, Charles A. Goldman, Cathleen Stasz, Louay 152 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/MG821 Constant 216 pages, 2007, www.rand.org/t/MG548 Saudi-Iranian Relations Since the Fall of Saddam: Rivalry, Cooperation, and Implications for U.S. Policy Post-Secondary Education in Qatar Frederic Wehrey, Theodore W. Karasik, Alireza Nader, Jeremy J. Employer Demand, Student Choice, and Options for Policy Ghez, Lydia Hansell, Robert A. Guffey Cathleen Stasz, Eric R. Eide, Paco Martorell 156 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/MG840 158 pages, 2007, www.rand.org/t/MG644

Understanding Iran Sharing the Dragon’s Teeth Jerrold D. Green, Frederic Wehrey, Charles Wolf, Jr. Terrorist Groups and the Exchange of New Technologies 166 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/MG771 Kim Cragin, Peter Chalk, Sara A. Daly, Brian A. Jackson 136 pages, 2007, www.rand.org/t/MG485 Withdrawing from Iraq Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Talking to the Enemy Strategies Track Two Diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia Walter L. Perry, Stuart E. Johnson, Keith Crane, David C. Dalia Dassa Kaye Gompert, John Gordon IV, Robert E. Hunter, Dalia Dassa Kaye, 166 pages, 2007, www.rand.org/t/MG592 Terrence K. Kelly, Eric Peltz, Howard J. Shatz 206 pages, 2009, www.rand.org/t/MG882 Ungoverned Territories Understanding and Reducing Terrorism Risks Angel Rabasa, Steven Boraz, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Theodore W. Karasik, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Kevin A. O’Brien, 2008 John E. Peters 396 pages, 2007, www.rand.org/t/MG561 After Saddam Prewar Planning and the Occupation of Iraq Nora Bensahel, Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Rick Brennan, Jr., Heather S. Gregg, Thomas Sullivan, Andrew Rathmell 2006 312 pages, 2008, www.rand.org/t/MG642 Beyond al-Qaeda Facing Human Capital Challenges of the 21st Century Part 1, The Global Jihadist Movement Education and Labor Market Initiatives in Lebanon, Oman, Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Sara A. Daly, Heather S. Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates: Executive Summary Gregg, Theodore W. Karasik, Kevin A. O’Brien, William Rosenau Gabriella C. Gonzalez, Lynn A. Karoly, Louay Constant, Hanine 226 pages, 2006, www.rand.org/t/MG429 Salem, Charles A. Goldman 154 pages, 2008, www.rand.org/t/MG786z1 Beyond al-Qaeda Part 2, The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe How Terrorist Groups End Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Sara A. Daly, Heather S. Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida Gregg, Theodore W. Karasik, Kevin A. O’Brien, William Rosenau Seth G. Jones, Martin C. Libicki 214 pages, 2006, www.rand.org/t/MG430 250 pages, 2008, www.rand.org/t/MG741-1

WWW.RAND.ORG/CMEPP To learn more about the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, visit www.rand.org/cmepp or contact its director, Linda Robinson, at 703.413.1100, ext. 5969, or [email protected].

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