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ESTIMATES for the PHM ATLÂNTICO BASED on OPEN SOURCES Luiz Octávio Gavião1 Marcio Magno De Farias Franco E Silva2 Emilia Machado3 Mariana Petine4

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ESTIMATES for the PHM ATLÂNTICO BASED on OPEN SOURCES Luiz Octávio Gavião1 Marcio Magno De Farias Franco E Silva2 Emilia Machado3 Mariana Petine4 DOI 10.21544/1809-3191.v24n3.p735-758 OPERATING AND SUPPORT COSTS FOR NEW VESSELS: ESTIMATES FOR THE PHM ATLÂNTICO BASED ON OPEN SOURCES Luiz Octávio Gavião1 Marcio Magno de Farias Franco e Silva2 Emilia Machado3 Mariana Petine4 ABSTRACT PHM Atlântico was recently acquired by the Brazilian Navy. The size of the ship indicates that its operating and support costs must be the highest among the conventional vessels of the Force. In general, naval assets remain in active service for 25 to 30 years, although the Navy is extending the working time of some of its main vessels. Knowing the life-cycle costs of ships allows the Force to carry out the appropriate budget planning in the medium and long term. However, the new ships acquired, from construction projects or even directly from the market, lack historical cost records. This makes it difficult to estimate life-cycle costs. This paper aims to apply analogy and parametric methods, associated with Bayesian inference models, to estimate the operation and support costs for the PHM Atlântico. Only open source data was used in the research. The results by different methods were similar, offering interesting alternatives for the calculation of life-cycle costs in a situation of data scarcity. Keywords: Life-Cycle Costs. Analogy method. Parametric method. Bayesian Inference. PHM Atlântico. 1 Holds a Bachelor’s degree in Naval Sciences from the Naval School, a Master’s in Military Studies at United States Marine Corps University (2002-2003), a Master’s and PhD in Production Engineering from UFF, and is an Adjunct Professor at the Brazilian War College (ESG), where he conducts research at the Training Center for Defense Acquisition (CCAD). Email: [email protected] 2 Rear Admiral (RM1), Superintendent and Dean of Research and Graduate Program in Maritime Studies at the Naval War College (EGN). Rio de Janeiro - RJ). Email: marcio. [email protected] 3 Graduate student in International Security and Defense, Brazilian War College (ESG). Rio de Janeiro - RJ). Brazil. Email: [email protected] 4 Holds a graduate degree in International Security and Defense at the Brazilian War College (ESG) - (RJ), Brazil. Email: [email protected] R. Esc. Guerra Nav., Rio de Janeiro, v. 24, n. 2, p. 435-462. maio/agosto. 2018. 436 OPERATING AND SUPPORT COSTS FOR NEW VESSELS INTRODUCTION The management of the life cycle of defense systems is a topic of the highest relevance. In general, defense systems are inherently complex because of the high number of elements that compose them, with various interrelationships between these components and with other systems, requiring advanced technology for their use and maintenance. In this context, it is necessary to know, measure and manage the life cycle of these complex systems, which can remain active for over 40 years (BRAZIL, 2017). The life cycle includes the whole spectrum of activities related to a system of interest, from the identification of capabilities and requirements, to system design and development, production and/or construction, operational deployment, maintenance support and disposal of materials. At each stage of the lifecycle, a series of processes and models inherent in system acquisition, contracting, development and operating expenditure need to be addressed under best management practices. These various life cycle phases involve time and resources and should receive the utmost attention from managers and advisors, so that efficient life cycle management contributes to the reliability and availability of defense systems employed in each of the Brazilian Armed Forces (BRAZIL, 2017). Estimating costs of defense systems life cycle phases is essential for efficient management. Government procurement programs require cost estimates for several reasons: supporting decisions about which program to prioritize; annual budget planning; assessing requirements at key decision points during life cycle management; and developing performance benchmarks. In addition, having a realistic estimate of projected costs makes resource allocation effective and increases the likelihood of program success (USGAO, 2009). However, measuring defense system costs is considerably challenging. The conditions for developing a good cost estimate require stable and accurate development programs, access to detailed documentation and historical data, availability of well-trained and experienced cost analysts, execution of risk and uncertainty analysis, identification of adequate confidence levels and long-term contingency and management reserves under the best of these circumstances. These conditions usually do not exist in the real world. Information is not accurate and fully available to users. Supporting documentation is scarce or classified, there are no similar programs for comparison, or estimation methodologies are based on irrelevant or outdated data (USGAO, 2009). In short, the task of estimating costs requires analysts to R. Esc. Guerra Nav., Rio de Janeiro, v. 24, n. 3, p. 735-758. setembro/dezembro. 2018. Luiz Octávio Gavião, Marcio Magno de Farias Franco e Silva, Emilia Machado and Mariana Petine437 use their skills and judgment to produce essentially probabilistic results. In a recent interview with the Valor Econômico newspaper, the Navy Commander (NC) exposed some concerns related to the life-cycle management of navy ships. Since 2013, Navy resources fell 55% to R$ 2.9 billion. This decrease has affected major ongoing programs, causing delays in submarine construction and extending the useful life of surface vessels that should operate for 25 to 30 years. According to the NC, investments in the re-equipment of the Navy should be of around R$ 1.2 billion per year, but the Force only receives, on average, approximately R$ 600 million (ROSA, 2018). The budget constraint scenario in the Navy in recent years makes expenditure forecasting even more important to prevent premature depreciation of assets. In the case of new defense products (PRODE), developed in research and development (R&D) projects or even acquired in the market, this forecasting capacity is limited due to the scarcity of historical cost records. In this case, the Force risks acquiring new equipment with a high life-cycle cost (LCC), further aggravating budget constraints. This long-term economic sustainability problem is called “affordability” in the specialized literature (MELESE, 2015). Managing the life cycle of a defense system requires the use of estimation models, because of the uncertainties involving its useful life. Operative and, eventually, combat activities over decades of active service can result in additional operating and support costs, making budget planning difficult. Modernization programs of equipment, required to keep them up to date with the state of the art of similar systems, may aggravate the difficulty. This uncertainty is expressed in estimation results by ranges of values and associated probabilities. At first glance, an estimate may be depreciated compared with accurate data. However, defense system operation and maintenance data are naturally private and classified by manufacturers and users. Thus, a result, even if estimated, is better than the lack of the information necessary for comparison and decision-making. Another relevant aspect of the scope of this study concerns the use of open sources. Estimated results based on publicly available information are of interest because they allow anticipated planning and comparison with other systems with potential for development or acquisition. In addition, results based on open sources may serve as a reference when assessing classified data obtained during or after negotiation with supplying countries and firms. For example, estimates based on classified data that are considerably lower than open source results may indicate data omission or miscalculations, seriously R. Esc. Guerra Nav., Rio de Janeiro, v. 24, n. 3, p. 735-758. setembro/dezembro. 2018. 438 OPERATING AND SUPPORT COSTS FOR NEW VESSELS impairing long-term budget planning. On the other hand, significantly higher results may warn of high maintenance costs of certain subsystems or components, characterizing the new equipment as atypical. The open sources used in this study are naval architecture data, available in reference publications, official data on HMS Ocean published by the Royal Navy, and information from the specialized media. In this context, the recent acquisition of PHM Atlântico is the focus of this paper. Because it is the largest ship in the Fleet, it is reasonable to assume that it will require the largest share of resources among conventional vessels, restricted here to those without nuclear propulsion. Considering an useful life of 25 to 30 years, a significant resource consumption is expected for its operation and support. The Royal Navy, which designed and launched the then called HMS Ocean in 1998, spent ₤ 150 million in its acquisition, according to British media reports (ROBERTSON, 2018). However, detailed records of annual operating and support costs (O&S) throughout its useful life cycle from 1995 to 2018 are not available from open sources. These costs represent, in general, the largest share of the total ownership costs of a ship and not knowing them may compromise the readiness of the Force (Gansler & Lucyshyn, 2015). Thus, the answer to the following research question may contribute to medium- and long-term navy budget planning: How to estimate PHM Atlântico’s O&S, within a context of data scarcity, and what is
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