ENROLLMENT History & Projection
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
ENROLLMENT History & Projection Published: November 26, 2019 575 North 100 East, American Fork, UT 84003 ENROLLMENT HISTORY & PROJECTION NOVEMBER 26, 2019 ALPINE SCHOOL DISTRICT 575 North 100 East American Fork, Utah 84003 www.alpineschools.org BOARD OF EDUCATION: S. Scott Carlson, President; Mark J. Clement, Vice-President Sarah Beeson; Amber Bonner; Sara M. Hacken; Julie King; Ada Wilson SUPERINTENDENT OF SCHOOLS: Samuel Y. Jarman BUSINESS ADMINISTRATOR: Robert W. Smith Prepared By: Alpine School District Business Services Team TABLE OF CONTENTS Enrollment & Projection Overview 1 Projection Summary with Charter History and High Schools 5 Projection Aggregate 13 Projection by Cluster 33 Enrollment History 59 October 1st Enrollment Statewide and Additional Charter School Information 71 Three Grade Total by High School 91 Birth and Census Data 105 Construction Growth Report 125 Enrollment & Projection Overview 1 2 Enrollment & Projection Overview • October 1, 2019 Actual Enrollment: • 81,532 Students • +1,676 from October 1, 2018 • +361 Elementary School • -5 Middle School (9th graders to Cedar Valley HS) • +1,341 High School (9th graders to Cedar Valley HS) • New Schools This Year: • Cedar Valley High School • Lake Mountain Middle School • Liberty Hills Elementary • Centennial Elementary • October 1, 2020 Projection: • 82,782 Students • +1,250 from October 1, 2019 • +97 Elementary School • +654 Middle School • +499 High School • Changes for Next Year: • New Elementary in Eagle Mountain (Silver Lake) (Future Projections NOT Included, Boundaries still being considered) 3 4 Projection Summary with Charter History and High Schools 5 6 Alpine School District Actual and Projected Enrollments 88,000 Projected Enrollment 11/2007 86,290 Projected Enrollment 11/2008 85,521 Projected Enrollment 11/2009 84,655 83,871 Projected Enrollment 11/2010 84,000 Projected Enrollment 11/2011 82,782 Projected Enrollment 11/2012 81,532 Projected Enrollment 11/2013 Projected Enrollment 11/2014 79,856 80,000 Projected Enrollment 11/2015 78,958 Projected Enrollment 11/2016 77,457 Projected Enrollment 11/2017 Projected Enrollment 11/2018 75,406 76,000 Actual Enrollment Oct 1 Projected Enrollment 11/2019 73,724 72,000 72,467 70,863 Number of Students 68,275 68,000 66,100 64,486 64,000 61,301 60,000 October 1 * projected 7 Alpine School District Projection History October 1 Enrollment 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024* Projected Enrollment 11/2007 60,575 62,527 64,334 66,296 68,452 Projected Enrollment 11/2008 63,613 65,783 68,220 71,017 73,656 Projected Enrollment 11/2009 66,542 69,343 72,535 75,564 78,713 Projected Enrollment 11/2010 68,474 71,227 73,854 76,400 78,762 Projected Enrollment 11/2011 70,351 72,756 74,857 76,615 78,136 Projected Enrollment 11/2012 73,433 75,953 78,077 80,063 81,489 Projected Enrollment 11/2013 74,264 75,778 77,209 77,983 78,872 Projected Enrollment 11/2014 74,777 75,760 76,290 77,072 77,645 Projected Enrollment 11/2015 76,962 77,894 78,989 79,837 80,885 Projected Enrollment 11/2016 78,659 79,915 80,806 81,805 82,662 Projected Enrollment 11/2017 80,196 81,184 82,179 83,201 84,162 Projected Enrollment 11/2018 80,851 81,941 83,037 84,136 85,240 Actual Enrollment Oct 1 61,301 64,486 66,100 68,275 70,863 72,467 73,724 75,406 77,457 78,958 79,856 81,532 Difference from Prior Year 2,561 3,185 1,614 2,175 2,588 1,604 1,257 1,682 2,051 1,501 89687,61 K-12 Differential 1,655 1,909 1,529 1,538 1,759 1,387 1,133 749 937 153 433 09 Implied Migration 906 67,21 58 736 928 712 421 53271,31 1,150 46658,51 Actual Difference from Prior Projection Total enrollment difference 726 873 (442) (199) 512 (966) (540) 926 594 992 (340) 186 K-12 difference from projection 277 201 )7(5 )6(8 ()8(5 272) (122) 71 (36) 44 (30) 07 Migration difference from projection 449 672 (385) (113) 570 (694) (418) 855 135 552 (310) 116 Projected Enrollment 11/2019 82,782 83,871 84,655 85,521 86,290 Difference from Prior Year 1,250 1,089 487 668 967 K-12 Projected difference 78 ()7(4 389) )64(3 (493) Projected Migration 1,172 1,136 1,173 1,212 1,262 Charter Schools History (ASD boundaries) Oct-19 Oct-18 Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Growth State Growth State School, Grades, Open date 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Decline) Max Potential Max Aristotle Academy, K-8, 2012 - - - - 852 022 051 031 311 - - - - - - - Ascent Academies, K-8, 2015 - - - - - - - 865 435 495 636 206 (34) 618 412 618 Canyon Grove Academy (Was Quail Run), K-8, 2010 - - 555 835 933 254 154 283 316 046 246 356 11 648 (5) 846 Franklin Discovery Academy, K-6, 2016 - - - - - - - - 005 205 655 675 02 057 471 057 Freedom Prep (Vineyard), K-6, 2016 - - - - - - - - 681 033 105 645 54 540 (6) 045 Ignite Academy (Lehi), K-7, 2018 - - - - - - - - - - 835 545 7 006 55 006 John Hancock Charter School, K-8, 2002 182 181 581 881 481 581 681 981 991 881 751 951 2 002 14 002 Karl G. Maeser Prep Academy, 7-12, 2007 223 082 306 626 416 916 836 036 726 636 436 926 (5) 546 61 546 Lakeview Academy, K-9, 2006 629 586 117 727 148 139 96190,01 1,018 1,024 1,013 1,025 21 1,000 (25) 00,01 Lincoln Academy, K-9, 2005 546 595 346 346 546 486 668 468 668 558 968 309 43 019 019 7 Mountainville Academy, K-9, 2006 660 056 186 747 947 057 177 767 957 067 366 856 (5) 008 241 008 Noah Webster Academy, K-6, 2006 479 035 255 685 895 635 575 485 385 065 545 425 (21) 526 101 526 Odyssey Charter School, K-6, 2005 476 154 194 605 735 635 025 045 084 954 134 114 (20) 055 931 055 Pioneer HS for the Performing Arts, 9-12, 2012 - - - - 802 974 573 272 131 021 - - - - - - Ranches Academy, K-6, 2004 350 053 153 263 463 463 363 563 463 463 073 173 1 004 92 004 Renaissance Academy, K-9, 2006 634 766 776 976 876 417 407 357 127 557 367 527 (38) 087 55 087 Rockwell Charter High School, 7-12, 2008 589 983 674 495 896 535 934 574 334 534 434 723 (107) 007 373 007 Spectrum Academy, K-12, 2014 - - - - - - 224 764 894 155 226 616 (6) 846 23 846 Timpanogos Academy, K-8, 2002 494 384 324 834 744 734 684 805 274 874 194 805 71 055 24 055 Utah County Academy of Sciences, 10-12, 2005 341 853 363 883 793 204 204 293 593 504 325 606 38 019 40035,01 Utah Military Academy 7-12, 2017 - - - - - - - - - 261 485 504 19 600 96 600 Total 5,603 5,619 6,711 7,022 7,557 7,844 8,317 8,887 9,492 9,917 10,873 10,888 15 12,672 1,784 12,812 Growth in Charter Schools 583 29,01 61 113 535 782 374 075 506 524 659 51 * projected 8 Alpine School District Projection History October 1 Enrollment 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024* Kindergarten Enrollment Projection History Projection 11/2007 5,196 5,274 5,354 5,504 5,575 Projection 11/2008 5,498 5,563 5,797 6,069 6,228 Projection 11/2009 5,683 6,120 6,431 6,608 6,630 Projection 11/2010 5,819 6,138 6,293 6,203 6,148 Projection 11/2011 6,002 6,294 6,309 6,082 6,162 Projection 11/2012 6,194 6,221 5,996 6,062 5,939 Projection 11/2013 5,799 5,621 5,717 5,476 5,635 Projection 11/2014 5,591 5,642 5,541 5,739 5,841 Projection 11/2015 5,731 5,638 5,804 5,740 5,872 Projection 11/2016 5,642 5,819 5,746 5,844 5,842 Projection 11/2017 5,824 5,758 5,856 6,008 6,047 Projection 11/2018 5,698 5,815 5,926 6,087 6,173 Actual Kindergarten Enrollment 5,473 5,699 5,626 5,733 5,944 5,922 5,677 5,662 5,695 5,686 5,794 5,768 Difference higher (lower) (from Projection) 277 201 (57) (86) (58) (272) (122) 71 (36) 44 (30) 70 Birth rate chart numbers 5,671 5,758 6,069 6,249 6,798 6,958 6,985 6,745 6,893 6,754 6,969 6,879 Difference higher (lower) (from birth rate) (198) (59) (443) (516) (854) (1, 036) (1,308) (1,083) (1,198) (1,068) (1,175) (1,111) Projection 11/2019 5,845 5,985 5,870 5,927 5,994 Birth rate chart numbers 6,997 7,168 7,030 6,929 Projection Difference higher (lower) (1,152) (1,183) (1,160) (1,002) Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Kindergarten Enrollment at Charters 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Aristotle Academy - - - - 94 14 12 82 33 - - - Ascent Academies - - - - - - - 79 57 77 96 47 Canyon Grove Academy (Form.