Predicting Hockey Success: the Western Hockey League Bantam Draft and Ontario Hockey League Priority Selection
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PREDICTING HOCKEY SUCCESS: THE WESTERN HOCKEY LEAGUE BANTAM DRAFT AND ONTARIO HOCKEY LEAGUE PRIORITY SELECTION A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Kinesiology & Health Studies University of Regina by Curtis Ryan Atkinson Regina, Saskatchewan July, 2015 Copyright 2015: C.R. Atkinson UNIVERSITY OF REGINA FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH SUPERVISORY AND EXAMINING COMMITTEE Curtis Ryan Atkinson, candidate for the degree of Master of Science in Kinesiology & Health Studies, has presented a thesis titled, Predicting Hockey Success: The Western Hockey League Bantam Draft and Ontario Hockey League Priority Selection, in an oral examination held on June 25, 2015. The following committee members have found the thesis acceptable in form and content, and that the candidate demonstrated satisfactory knowledge of the subject material. External Examiner: *Dr. Jess Dixon, University of Windsor Co-Supervisor: Dr. Larena Hoeber, Faculty of Kinesiology & Health Studies Co-Supervisor: Dr. Harold Riemer, Faculty of Kinesiology & Health Studies Committee Member: Dr. Cory Kulczycki, Faculty of Kinesiology & Health Studies Chair of Defense: Dr. Ronald Camp, Faculty of Business Administration *Participated via SKYPE UNIVERSITY OF REGINA FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH SUPERVISORY AND EXAMINING COMMITTEE Curtis Ryan Atkinson, candidate for the degree of Master of Science in Kinesiology & Health Studies, has presented a thesis titled, Predicting Hockey Success: The Western Hockey League Bantam Draft and Ontario Hockey League Priority Selection, in an oral examination held on June 25, 2015. The following committee members have found the thesis acceptable in form and content, and that the candidate demonstrated satisfactory knowledge of the subject material. External Examiner: *Dr. Jess Dixon, University of Windsor Co-Supervisor: Dr. Larena Hoeber, Faculty of Kinesiology & Health Studies Co-Supervisor: Dr. Harold Riemer, Faculty of Kinesiology & Health Studies Committee Member: Dr. Cory Kulczycki, Faculty of Kinesiology & Health Studies Chair of Defense: Dr. Ronald Camp, Faculty of Business Administration *Participated via SKYPE ABSTRACT The successful identification of talent and the ability to build a solid foundation of players are essential elements in developing winning athletic programs (Gee, Marshall, & King, 2010). In the Western Hockey League (WHL), players are eligible to be drafted at the conclusion of their second year of bantam hockey – the year they turn 15 years old. In the Ontario Hockey League (OHL), players are eligible to be selected one year later than the WHL – at the conclusion of their first year of midget hockey. The present study explored relations between player size, birth date and selection order in the WHL and OHL drafts and whether or not selection order predicted future success as a hockey player. Players born earlier in the year, and heavier (WHL and OHL) and taller (OHL) players were selected earlier in both the WHL and OHL drafts. Players selected earlier in their respective drafts were also advantaged over later picks with respect to the future success achieved in the game. Players drafted in the OHL were more likely to play at a higher level, which may in part be a result of the later draft, compared to the WHL. The present findings suggest that current draft procedures are successful in that players who are drafted higher tend to achieve higher levels of success. However, it is not possible to determine if this is due to potentially successful players not being provided with the opportunity to achieve similar success because they were not drafted high or not drafted at all. An important implication of the work is to encourage structural changes to hockey leagues that will minimize age differences within groupings. Minimally, scouts should be made aware of the tendency to perhaps over-emphasize larger players, both directly through size and through players born relatively earlier than their competitors, so they can consider how such information factors into their own decisions. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am sincerely thankful to Dr. Harold Riemer for his assistance in the development of this project and for his feedback throughout. I also express many thanks to Dr. Larena Hoeber, Dr. Cory Kulczycki, and Dr. Jess Dixon for their thoughtful contributions to the project. I would also like to thank the University of Regina for their support of my studies, including the Employee Tuition Reimbursement program. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT............................................................................................................................. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...................................................................................................... ii LIST OF TABLES................................................................................................................... v LIST OF FIGURES.................................................................................................................. vi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Purpose of the Study.................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Significance of the Study............................................................................................. 3 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW.................................................................................. 5 2.1 Relative Age Effect..................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Impact of Height and Weight...................................................................................... 12 2.3 Predicting Success - Testing, Evaluating, and Drafting.............................................. 14 2.4 The Present Study........................................................................................................ 17 CHAPTER 3: METHODS........................................................................................................ 18 3.1 Sample......................................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Procedures................................................................................................................... 19 CHAPTER 4: RESULTS.......................................................................................................... 24 CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSION................................................................................................... 32 5.1 Limitations................................................................................................................... 36 5.2 Future Directions......................................................................................................... 38 5.3 Implications................................................................................................................. 39 5.4 Conclusion................................................................................................................... 40 iii REFERENCES......................................................................................................................... 42 APPENDIX A........................................................................................................................... 47 iv LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Correlation Matrix...................................................................................................... 24 Table 2. WHL Height, Weight, and Birth Quarter Predicting Round of Selection.................. 25 Table 3. OHL Height, Weight, and Birth Quarter Predicting Round of Selection................... 27 Table 4. Birth Quarter (proportions) and Average Round Selected......................................... 28 Table 5. WHL Round Selected Predicting Highest Level Achieved....................................... 28 Table 6. OHL Round Selected Predicting Highest Level Achieved........................................ 29 Table 7.Birth quarter, height (inches), weight (lbs), and highest level achieved by round selected – WHL........................................................................................................................ 29 Table 8. Birth quarter, height (inches), weight (lbs), and highest level achieved by round selected – OHL......................................................................................................................... 30 Table 9. Highest Level Achieved Across Leagues................................................................... 31 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Focus of research areas, aims, and research questions.............................................. 23 Figure 2. Height (inches) by round selected............................................................................. 26 Figure 3. Weight (pounds) by round selected........................................................................... 26 Figure 4. Highest level achieved by round selected................................................................. 31 vi Chapter 1 – Introduction 1.1 Introduction The successful identification of talent and the ability to build a solid foundation of players are essential