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Reports StudyLA

2020

Election Forecast: 2020 Presidential General Election

Fernando J. Guerra

Brianne Gilbert

Max Dunsker

Alejandra Alarcon

Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lmu.edu/studyla-reports

Recommended Citation Guerra, Fernando J.; Gilbert, Brianne; Dunsker, Max; and Alarcon, Alejandra, "Election Forecast: 2020 Presidential General Election" (2020). Reports. 17. https://digitalcommons.lmu.edu/studyla-reports/17

This Book is brought to you for free and open access by the StudyLA at Digital Commons @ Loyola Marymount University and Loyola Law School. It has been accepted for inclusion in Reports by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons@Loyola Marymount University and Loyola Law School. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 2020 Presidential General Election Election Forecast StudyLA’s inaugural survey of political thought leaders on their election predictions

Fernando Guerra Brianne Gilbert Max Dunsker StudyLA advocates for a better, more equitable through research, student mentorship, and engagement with the region’s residents and leaders

LMU.edu/studyLA Methodology

StudyLA conducted an inaugural survey of political thought leaders in Los Angeles asking their predictions for the 2020 general election • purposive sample of political thought leaders in or representing Los Angeles with additional snowball sampling • 174 respondents • self-administered online survey • administered October 5-23, 2020

3 Leaders predict a victory for Biden in a landslide Among those who think is going to win, three in four are confident in their predictions. Meanwhile, among those who think is going to win, one in two are confident in their predictions.

Who do you think is going to win the presidency? How confident are you in your prediction? Very confident 26.4% Somewhat confident 48.3% Joseph R. Biden Not very confident 21.3% Not at all confident 4.0% 86.2% By those who chose Biden Very confident 30.0% Somewhat confident 47.7% Not very confident 18.0% Not at all confident 3.3%

By those who chose Trump Very confident 4.2% Donald J. Trump Somewhat confident 45.8% 13.8% Not very confident 41.7% Not at all confident 8.3%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 4 What percent of the vote do you think Democratic nominee Joe Biden will receive?

In In Los Angeles County received 61.5% of the vote in 2016 Hillary Clinton received 71.8% of the vote in 2016 Average prediction for Joe Biden is 66.1% Average prediction for Joe Biden is 75.3%

Less than 50% 1.1% Less than 50% 0.0%

50% to 59% 3.4% 50% to 59% 0.6%

60% to 69% 70.7% 60% to 69% 4.0%

70% to 79% 21.8% 70% to 79% 75.9%

80% or more 2.9% 80% or more 19.5%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 5 Leaders predict Democrats will control Senate and House Very few leaders agree with Donald Trump’s assertion from the third presidential debate that Republicans will win back the House.

Which party will control the Senate? Which party will control the House?

Democrats Democrats 65.1% 96.5%

Republicans Republicans 34.9% 3.5%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 6 Leaders predict Who do you think will win the Congressional District 25 Congressional District 25 seat? to flip back to blue In November 2018, Democrat won this race with 54.0% of the votes, flipping the district from red to blue. Christy Smith Democrats flipped 41 congressional seats across the U.S., 52.9% taking control of the House. In May 2020, Republican won a special election with 54.9% of the votes while Democrat Christy Smith received 45.1%. Now, leaders predict Smith will win, flipping this seat back to blue.

Mike Garcia 47.1%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast 7 Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 7 If resigned from the Senate to become Vice President, whom do you think Gavin Newsom would appoint to fill her seat?

Leaders were asked to name whom they 35.2% think Newsom would appoint, not whom Robert Garcia 16.9% they would want him to appoint. 14.8% Karen Bass 5.6% 3.5% Eric Garcetti 3.5% Other 13.4% Don'tDon't Knowknow 7.0%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 8 Leaders predict Who do you think will win the Gascón will win Los Angeles District Attorney race? District Attorney race In the March 2020 primary election, incumbent Jackie Lacey received 46.8% of the votes while former George Gascón District Attorney George Gascón received 29.9% and public defender Rachel Rossi received 23.3%. 63.6%

Jackie Lacey 36.4%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 9 Local Races Leaders are split over who will win the race for Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors District 2, but predict victories for David Ryu in District 4 and Mark Ridley-Thomas in Los Angeles City Council District 10.

Supervisorial District 2 Council District 4 Council District 10

51.9% 83.8% 94.9% DAVID RYU MARK RIDLEY-THOMAS 48.1% 16.2% 5.1% GRACE YOO

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 10 Leaders predict Do you believe Measure J will pass? Measure J will pass Measure J, Budget Allocation for Alternatives to Incarceration, also known as Reimagine L.A., would amend YES the Los Angeles County charter to require that no less than 10% of the county’s general fund be appropriated to 59.1% community programs and alternatives to incarceration

NO 40.9%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 11 What do you think voter turnout will What percent of Los Angeles County be in Los Angeles County? voters will vote by mail?

In November 2016, 36.2% voted by mail In November 2016, voter turnout was 67.5% In March 2020, 53.8% voted by mail Average prediction is 71.5% Average prediction is 64.5%

Less than 50% 0.0% Less than 50% 4.6% 50% to 59% 1.7% 50% to 59% 13.2% 60% to 69% 22.4% 60% to 69% 51.1% 70% to 79% 64.4% 70% to 79% 18.4% 80% or more 11.5% 80% or more 12.6%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 12 Do you believe this state ballot measure will pass?

Prop 14 Stem Cell Research Yes: 48% Prop 15 Taxes on Commercial Property Yes: 45% Prop 16 Allow Public Agencies to Consider Diversity Yes: 54% Prop 17 Voting Rights for Parolees Yes: 72% Prop 18 Voting Rights for 17-Year-Olds Yes: 73% Prop 19 Change Certain Property Tax Rules Yes: 50% Prop 20 Changes to Criminal Penalties and Parole Yes: 46% Prop 21 Rent Control Yes: 34% Prop 22 Employment Classification Yes: 65% Prop 23 Kidney Dialysis Clinics Yes: 24% Prop 24 Changes to Consumer Privacy Laws Yes: 59% Prop 25 Replace Cash Bail with Risk Assessment Yes: 56%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 13 LAUSD Races Do you believe Measure RR will pass? The measure requires 55% to pass Who do you think will win LAUSD District 3? YES Scott Schmerelson* 77.9% 58.3%

Marilyn Koziatek 22.1%

Who do you think will win LAUSD District 7?

Patricia Castellanos 71.4% NO Tanya Ortiz Franklin 28.6% 41.7%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 14 LACCD Races

Who do you think will win LACCD Seat 1? Who do you think will win LACCD Seat 3?

Andra Hoffman* 89.9% David Vela* 83.3%

R. Richard Cuevas 5.1% Lydia A. Gutierrez 7.7%

Karen Hernandez 2.5% Gerry Anderson 3.8%

Antonio Paolo Sanchez 2.5% Sylvia Brooks Griffin 2.6%

Sophia Cortez 1.3%

Robert Payne 1.3%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 15 LACCD Races

Who do you think will win LACCD Seat 5? Who do you think will win LACCD Seat 7?

Scott Svonkin* 58.2% Mike Fong* 82.1%

Nichelle M. Henderson 24.1% Jamal K. Stewart 8.3%

Cynthia Gonzalez 11.4% Arturo Flores 4.8%

Glenn Bailey 2.5% Chris Han 2.4%

Sergio B. Vargas 2.5% Diamond Deruso 1.2%

Michelle Manos 1.3% Raquel Watts 1.2%

2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 16 Survey Respondents

Eric Garcetti, Mayor of Los Angeles John Chiang, Former State Treasurer Timothy Law Snyder, Loyola Marymount University Robert Garcia, Mayor of Long Beach John Perez, Former Speaker of the Assembly Christian Grose, University of Southern California Tim Sandoval, Mayor of Pomona Cindy Miscikowski , Former Los Angeles City Councilmember Jessica Levinson, Loyola Law School Alex Villanueva, LA County Sheriff Mike Hernandez, Former Los Angeles City Councilmember Matt Mendez, California State University Long Beach Jeffrey Prang, LA County Assessor Mark Slavkin, Former LAUSD Board Member Chon Noriega, University of California, Los Angeles Lena Gonzalez, State Senator for District 33 Mario Guerra, Former Mayor of Downey Sara Sadhwani, Pomona College Miguel Santiago, Assembly District 53 Ana Guerrero, Chief of Staff to the Mayor of Los Angeles Sabrina Sanders, California State University Chancellor's Office Sydney Kamlager-Dove, Assembly District 54 Francisco Rodriguez, Chancellor of the Los Angeles Community Dan Schnur, University of Southern California , Los Angeles City Council District 11 College District Bob Shrum, University of Southern California Kevin De León, Los Angeles City Council District 14 Justin Erbacci, CEO of Los Angeles World Airports Edward Siebert, S.J., Loyola Marymount University Joe Busciano, Los Angeles City Council District 15 Vince Bertoni, Director of Planning for the City of Los Angeles Raphe Sonenshein, California State University Los Angeles Monica Garcia, LAUSD Board District 2 Kevin James, City of Los Angeles Chief of Legislative Affairs Marilyn Sutton, California State University Dominguez Hills Nick Melvoin, LAUSD Board District 4 Mark Gonzalez, Chair of Los Angeles County Democratic Party Chris Zepeda, University of California, Los Angeles Andra Hoffman, LACCD President Paul Viviano, President/CEO of Children's Hospital Los Angeles Raul Amezcua, Stifel Public Finance Team Steven Veres, LACCD Vice President Peter Taylor, President of the ECMC Foundation Vanessa Aramayo, Alliance for a Better Community Gabriel Buelna, LACCD 2nd Vice President Tom Saenz, President of MALDEF Gilbert Arevalo, Lincoln Heights Neighborhood Council Ernest Moreno, LACCD Seat Number 4 Ange-Marie Alfaro, University of Southern California Brent Assink, Fuller Foundation Scott Svonkin, LACCD Sear Number 5 Matt Barreto, University of California, Los Angeles Steve Bae, Wilshire Center-Koreatown Neighborhood Council Mike Fong, LACCD Seat Number 7 Richard Fox, Loyola Marymount University Robert Baker, Baker, Keener & Nahra, LLP , Former Mayor of Los Angeles Mike Genovese, Loyola Marymount University Bob Beitcher, Motion Picture and Television Fund

LMU.edu/studyLA 17 Arnie Berghoff, Arnie Berghoff & Associates John Echeveste, LA Plaza de Cultura y Artes Brad Kane, P.I.C.O Neighborhood Council Patricia Berman, Downtown Los Angeles Neighborhood Council Lonella Enix, Empowerment Congress Southwest Megan Kerr, Long Beach Unified School Board Gail Bernstein, PNC Bank and PNC Credit Douglas Epperhart, Coastal San Pedro Neighborhood Council Andrew Kerr, Crew, Inc. Clint Birdsong, Greater Cypress Park Neighborhood Council Efrain Escobedo, California Community Foundation Jihee Kim Huh, Pacific American Fish Co. Katie Braude, Speak UP Thomas Flintoft, Kindel Gagan Coby King, High Point Strategies Dave Bryan, Former Reporter, Channel 9 Nadia Funn, Ballmer Group Ira Koslow, Venice Neighborhood Council Elise Buik, United Way Michael Gagan, Kindel Gagan Eri Kroh, Sandstone Properties Raul Bustillos, Bank of America James Garrison, Pacific Federal Insurance Co. Josh Lafarga, Laborers Local 1309 Stephanie Campbell, CANNDU Neighborhood Council Paula Gerez, Westchester/Playa Neighborhood Council Jessica Lall, Central City Association of Los Angeles Andy Carrasco, SoCalGas Dale Goldsmith, Armbruster Goldsmith & Devlac LLP Julianna Lassleben, Mid City Neighborhood Council Jennie Carreon, Altamed Health Ruben Gonzalez, Gonzalez Strategic Affairs Mary Leslie, President of the Los Angeles Business Council Lisa Chapman, Westwood Neighborhood Council Stephanie Graves, Lee Andrews Group Robin Lifland, MacArthur Park Neighborhood Council Alex Martin Chaves, Parking Company of America Lisa Gritzner, LG Strategies Paul Little, President/CEO of Pasadena Chamber of Commerce Herlinda Chico, LA County Senior Field Deputy Noel Hacegaba, Deputy Director Port of Long Beach Daniel Lopez, Newsom and Harris campaigns Andrew Colaiace, Access Services Inc. Eric Hacopian, EDH and Associates Monica Lozano, College Futures Foundation Gordon Crawford, Capital Research and Management Company Darcy Harris, Echo Park Neighborhood Council Anastasia Mann, Hollywood Hills West Neighborhood Council Carol Crosby, Whittier Area Chamber of Commerce Jheri Heetland, Chatsworth Porter Ranch Chamber of Commerce Pilar Marrero, Reporter Tyler Curley, Long Beach Manager of Government Relations Randal Hernandez, Southern California Verizon Timothy McOsker, Altasea at the Port of Los Angeles Jeff Daar, Daar & Newman Nancy Hoffman Vanyek, Greater San Fernando Valley Gonzalo Medina, Marine Safety Chief, Long Beach Ana Dahan, Great Public Schools Now Chamber of Commerce Steven Meeks, West Adams Neighborhood Council Trevor Daley, Cerrell & Associates Alan Hostrup, YMCA of Metropolitan Los Angeles George Mihlsten, Latham and Watkins Hal Dash, Cerrell & Associates Maria Hoye, Latham and Watkins Tom Modica, Long Beach City Manager Christina Davis, LAX Coastal Chamber of Commerce Lorrie Jean, Los Angeles LGBT Center Lou Moret, Former Member of the Los Angeles Fire Stephanie Davis, Westchester Hometown, Editor Oscar Jimenez, Granada Hills North Neighborhood Council and Police Pension Board Dallas Dishman, David Geffen Foundation Matt Johnson, Ziffren Law Rick Nahmias, Food Forward Raymond Duran, Arleta Neighborhood Council Brian Kabateck, Kabateck, LLP Miles Nevin, Long Beach Airport Commissioner

LMU.edu/studyLA 18 Patrick Niemann, Ernst and Young Bob Stern, Former President of Center for Governmental Studies Jake O'Donnell, Field Deputy to State Senator Lena Gonzalez Diana Tang, Chief of Staff to the Mayor of Long Beach Michael Olenick, Child Care Resource Center Mark Taylor, Director of Government Relations for Boeing Drew Paonessa, Arroyo Seco Neighborhood Council Lisa Trifiletti, Trifiletti Consulting Jose Pelico, Boyle Heights Neighborhood Council David Tuyo, University Credit Union Timothy Psomas, PSOMAS Ana Valdez, Latina Donor Collaborative, Valdez Consulting Group Dante Puccinelli, Kabateck, LLP Arturo Vargas, NALEO Educational Fund Wayne Quint, Jr., Los Angeles County Professional Ray Vazquez, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Peace Officers Association Eli Veitzer, Jewish Family Services of Los Angeles Justin Ramirez, Metro LA Board Deputy Peter Villegas, The Coca-Cola Company Rex Richardson, SCAG President; Long Beach City Councilman Mark Waier, Director of Communication for Virgil Roberts, Bobbitt & Roberts Los Angeles World Airports Elmer Roldan, Communities In Schools of Los Angeles Sharon Weissman, Long Beach Port Commissioner Laurel Rosen, Santa Monica Chamber of Commerce Denita Willoughby, SoCalGas Brad Rosenheim, Rosenheim & Associates, Inc. Mary Zendejas, Long Beach City Councilwoman Christian Rubalcava, Sylmar Neighborhood Council Jack Rubens, Sheppard Mullin Maria Salinas, Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce Danielle Sandoval, Harbor City Neighborhood Council Miguel Santana, President of Weingart Foundation Herb Scannell, President of Southern California Public Radio John Shallman, Shallman Communications Michelle Siqueros, The Campaign for College Opportunity Kevin Sloat, Sloat Higgins Jensen and Associates Trent Stamp, Eisner Foundation Michael Steed, Paladin Capital Group

LMU.edu/studyLA 19 LMU.edu/studyLA For more information about this and other StudyLA research, please contact Brianne Gilbert at [email protected]