Reports StudyLA 2020 Election Forecast: 2020 Presidential General Election Fernando J. Guerra Brianne Gilbert Max Dunsker Alejandra Alarcon Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lmu.edu/studyla-reports Recommended Citation Guerra, Fernando J.; Gilbert, Brianne; Dunsker, Max; and Alarcon, Alejandra, "Election Forecast: 2020 Presidential General Election" (2020). Reports. 17. https://digitalcommons.lmu.edu/studyla-reports/17 This Book is brought to you for free and open access by the StudyLA at Digital Commons @ Loyola Marymount University and Loyola Law School. It has been accepted for inclusion in Reports by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons@Loyola Marymount University and Loyola Law School. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 2020 Presidential General Election Election Forecast StudyLA’s inaugural survey of political thought leaders on their election predictions Fernando Guerra Brianne Gilbert Max Dunsker StudyLA advocates for a better, more equitable Los Angeles through research, student mentorship, and engagement with the region’s residents and leaders LMU.edu/studyLA Methodology StudyLA conducted an inaugural survey of political thought leaders in Los Angeles asking their predictions for the 2020 general election • purposive sample of political thought leaders in or representing Los Angeles with additional snowball sampling • 174 respondents • self-administered online survey • administered October 5-23, 2020 3 Leaders predict a victory for Biden in a landslide Among those who think Joe Biden is going to win, three in four are confident in their predictions. Meanwhile, among those who think Donald Trump is going to win, one in two are confident in their predictions. Who do you think is going to win the presidency? How confident are you in your prediction? Very confident 26.4% Somewhat confident 48.3% Joseph R. Biden Not very confident 21.3% Not at all confident 4.0% 86.2% By those who chose Biden Very confident 30.0% Somewhat confident 47.7% Not very confident 18.0% Not at all confident 3.3% By those who chose Trump Very confident 4.2% Donald J. Trump Somewhat confident 45.8% 13.8% Not very confident 41.7% Not at all confident 8.3% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 4 What percent of the vote do you think Democratic nominee Joe Biden will receive? In California In Los Angeles County Hillary Clinton received 61.5% of the vote in 2016 Hillary Clinton received 71.8% of the vote in 2016 Average prediction for Joe Biden is 66.1% Average prediction for Joe Biden is 75.3% Less than 50% 1.1% Less than 50% 0.0% 50% to 59% 3.4% 50% to 59% 0.6% 60% to 69% 70.7% 60% to 69% 4.0% 70% to 79% 21.8% 70% to 79% 75.9% 80% or more 2.9% 80% or more 19.5% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 5 Leaders predict Democrats will control Senate and House Very few leaders agree with Donald Trump’s assertion from the third presidential debate that Republicans will win back the House. Which party will control the Senate? Which party will control the House? Democrats Democrats 65.1% 96.5% Republicans Republicans 34.9% 3.5% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 6 Leaders predict Who do you think will win the Congressional District 25 Congressional District 25 seat? to flip back to blue In November 2018, Democrat Katie Hill won this race with 54.0% of the votes, flipping the district from red to blue. Christy Smith Democrats flipped 41 congressional seats across the U.S., 52.9% taking control of the House. In May 2020, Republican Mike Garcia won a special election with 54.9% of the votes while Democrat Christy Smith received 45.1%. Now, leaders predict Smith will win, flipping this seat back to blue. Mike Garcia 47.1% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast 7 Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 7 If Kamala Harris resigned from the Senate to become Vice President, whom do you think Gavin Newsom would appoint to fill her seat? Leaders were asked to name whom they Alex Padilla 35.2% think Newsom would appoint, not whom Robert Garcia 16.9% they would want him to appoint. Xavier Becerra 14.8% Karen Bass 5.6% Adam Schiff 3.5% Eric Garcetti 3.5% Other 13.4% Don'tDon't Knowknow 7.0% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 8 Leaders predict Who do you think will win the Gascón will win Los Angeles District Attorney race? District Attorney race In the March 2020 primary election, incumbent Jackie Lacey received 46.8% of the votes while former George Gascón San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón received 29.9% and public defender Rachel Rossi received 23.3%. 63.6% Jackie Lacey 36.4% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 9 Local Races Leaders are split over who will win the race for Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors District 2, but predict victories for David Ryu in Los Angeles City Council District 4 and Mark Ridley-Thomas in Los Angeles City Council District 10. Supervisorial District 2 Council District 4 Council District 10 51.9% HERB WESSON 83.8% 94.9% DAVID RYU MARK RIDLEY-THOMAS 48.1% HOLLY MITCHELL 16.2% NITHYA RAMAN 5.1% GRACE YOO 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 10 Leaders predict Do you believe Measure J will pass? Measure J will pass Measure J, Budget Allocation for Alternatives to Incarceration, also known as Reimagine L.A., would amend YES the Los Angeles County charter to require that no less than 10% of the county’s general fund be appropriated to 59.1% community programs and alternatives to incarceration NO 40.9% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 11 What do you think voter turnout will What percent of Los Angeles County be in Los Angeles County? voters will vote by mail? In November 2016, 36.2% voted by mail In November 2016, voter turnout was 67.5% In March 2020, 53.8% voted by mail Average prediction is 71.5% Average prediction is 64.5% Less than 50% 0.0% Less than 50% 4.6% 50% to 59% 1.7% 50% to 59% 13.2% 60% to 69% 22.4% 60% to 69% 51.1% 70% to 79% 64.4% 70% to 79% 18.4% 80% or more 11.5% 80% or more 12.6% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 12 Do you believe this state ballot measure will pass? Prop 14 Stem Cell Research Yes: 48% Prop 15 Taxes on Commercial Property Yes: 45% Prop 16 Allow Public Agencies to Consider Diversity Yes: 54% Prop 17 Voting Rights for Parolees Yes: 72% Prop 18 Voting Rights for 17-Year-Olds Yes: 73% Prop 19 Change Certain Property Tax Rules Yes: 50% Prop 20 Changes to Criminal Penalties and Parole Yes: 46% Prop 21 Rent Control Yes: 34% Prop 22 Employment Classification Yes: 65% Prop 23 Kidney Dialysis Clinics Yes: 24% Prop 24 Changes to Consumer Privacy Laws Yes: 59% Prop 25 Replace Cash Bail with Risk Assessment Yes: 56% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 13 LAUSD Races Do you believe Measure RR will pass? The measure requires 55% to pass Who do you think will win LAUSD District 3? YES Scott Schmerelson* 77.9% 58.3% Marilyn Koziatek 22.1% Who do you think will win LAUSD District 7? Patricia Castellanos 71.4% NO Tanya Ortiz Franklin 28.6% 41.7% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 14 LACCD Races Who do you think will win LACCD Seat 1? Who do you think will win LACCD Seat 3? Andra Hoffman* 89.9% David Vela* 83.3% R. Richard Cuevas 5.1% Lydia A. Gutierrez 7.7% Karen Hernandez 2.5% Gerry Anderson 3.8% Antonio Paolo Sanchez 2.5% Sylvia Brooks Griffin 2.6% Sophia Cortez 1.3% Robert Payne 1.3% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 15 LACCD Races Who do you think will win LACCD Seat 5? Who do you think will win LACCD Seat 7? Scott Svonkin* 58.2% Mike Fong* 82.1% Nichelle M. Henderson 24.1% Jamal K. Stewart 8.3% Cynthia Gonzalez 11.4% Arturo Flores 4.8% Glenn Bailey 2.5% Chris Han 2.4% Sergio B. Vargas 2.5% Diamond Deruso 1.2% Michelle Manos 1.3% Raquel Watts 1.2% 2020 Presidential General Election | Election Forecast Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 16 Survey Respondents Eric Garcetti, Mayor of Los Angeles John Chiang, Former State Treasurer Timothy Law Snyder, Loyola Marymount University Robert Garcia, Mayor of Long Beach John Perez, Former Speaker of the Assembly Christian Grose, University of Southern California Tim Sandoval, Mayor of Pomona Cindy Miscikowski , Former Los Angeles City Councilmember Jessica Levinson, Loyola Law School Alex Villanueva, LA County Sheriff Mike Hernandez, Former Los Angeles City Councilmember Matt Mendez, California State University Long Beach Jeffrey Prang, LA County Assessor Mark Slavkin, Former LAUSD Board Member Chon Noriega, University of California, Los Angeles Lena Gonzalez, State Senator for District 33 Mario Guerra, Former Mayor of Downey Sara Sadhwani, Pomona College Miguel Santiago, Assembly District 53 Ana Guerrero, Chief of Staff to the Mayor of Los Angeles Sabrina Sanders,