Win Elections (Barak – Clinton and Blair)

Global learning in a new period of uncertainty

13 March 2012 Graduate School of Political Management George Washington University

Learning from the US in current period

. US developments 1. Money 2. Professionalism 3. Social Media 4. Political dysfunction and polarization 5. Party models – non replicable – cultural conservatism – post modern demographic trends

. Bottom line: more and less to learn from the US

. Emerging market models

. Lula and Brazil; Chile

. Populist left regimes and anti-systemic politics: Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia

. Social media – the street from Iran to Syria and Egypt – even Russia

. Facebook – Palestinian example

. Bottom line – global learning and education a growing role

. Methodology – field work and media . Professionalism . On top of US developments – technology and methods . Authority at the table . Clinton (Mandela – Newsweek issue) . Understand a transnational trend – post-industrial parties – US/Europe?LA . Win elections (Barak – Clinton and Blair) . Experimental design . Strategy . Message- focus . War Room

. Social media . What’s the fight about? Defining the battle. Strategy . Message focus . War Room

. Are there post-national trends/developments? – for sure 1. Politics politics of austerity in Europe 2. Liberal-market reform era giving way to Lula model and ‘better life’ 3. Global uncertainty 4. Energy and resource politics (Argentina) 5. Role of China 6. Corruption

• And you win elections

Whether you want to win your election, lead your country, or change the world, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner can help you find the answer.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner is the world's premier polling and strategic consulting firm for international political campaigns and leaders, helping candidates and parties around the world campaign, win, and govern. We bring unmatched insight and experience to campaigns around the world, based on work in over 80 countries on 6 continents, together with the latest techniques used in US elections, to help our international political clients.

Who we are

GQR’s experience spans all levels – presidents, parliaments, governors, mayors – all over the world.

We have worked on high-stakes political campaigns in countries as diverse as Austria and Kenya, or Australia and Georgia, each with its own unique demography, history, culture, and politics. We believe in learning as much as possible about the countries we work in before we start work

We know every country, every political system, and every campaign is unique. What we do

Our goal is simple: to help you win. We specialize in equipping you with the tools you need to do that.

More than a research firm and more than a consulting firm, we believe in using highly-strategic research to drive campaign thinking – not just who your target voters are, but what messages move them; not just what do voters care about, but what is your story. We use the research to provide actionable advice and help leaders modernize parties, crystallize strategies, and sharpen messages, making them more competitive in elections and more effective in office.

What makes us different

How we use research. International experience.

Most political research tells you what the vote is, what the We have worked in over 80 countries on 6 continents. We important issues are, and maybe who your target voters are, understand that each country is different, and it is not enough but that’s where it stops. We view research differently. We to take the US way of doing things and apply it all over. We use research to help craft a strategy, to understand why know what it takes to get inside a different culture, a different voters think the way they do and what helps move the voters political system, and win. What’s more, we apply the you need to move, in the direction you need to move them. experiences from campaigns all over the world to one We help you find the narrative that answers the question: another, an experience no one else can match. why should voters pick you instead of someone else?

Track record of success.

We have a proven record of successfully conducting research, predicting results, and winning races, all over the world. Where we work

• Afghanistan • Dominican Republic • Liberia • Singapore • Angola • Ecuador • Mexico • Slovakia • Argentina • Egypt • Morocco • Somalia • Australia • El Salvador • Moldova • South Africa • Austria • France • Nepal • South Korea • Azerbaijan • Georgia/Abkhazia • Nicaragua • Spain • Bahamas • Germany • Nigeria • Switzerland • Bahrain • Greece • Pakistan • Tanzania • Bangladesh • Haiti • Panama • Thailand • Belgium • Honduras • Peru • Trinidad and Tobago • Bolivia • Hungary • Philippines • Turkey • Bosnia-Herzegovina • India • Poland • Tunisia • Brazil • Indonesia • Portugal • Ukraine • Bulgaria • Iraq • Romania • United Arab Emirates • Cambodia • Ireland • Russia • United Kingdom • Canada • Israel • Saudi Arabia • Venezuela • China • Italy • Scotland • West Bank and Gaza • Colombia • Japan • Serbia • Congo • Jordan • Croatia • Kenya • Czech Republic • Kuwait We offer our clients global reach, including: • Denmark • Lebanon . Opinion research conducted in over 80 countriesland 6 continents . Full service European office, headquartered in London . World headquarters in Washington, DC, and Latin American Offices in Buenos Aires . Ability to work in diverse languages and cultures . Know more about how to translate research intolaction . Working partnerships with local research companies worldwide Selected International Political Clients

. Prime Minister Tony Blair . President Traian Băsescu . ODM (Kenya) . President Nelson Mandela . Prime Minister Vlad Filat . Fine Gael (Ireland) . Chancellor Gerhard Schröder . President Carlos Roberto Flores Facusse . Israeli Labor Party . Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer . President Alejandro Toledo . l'Ulivo (Italy) . Mayor Michael Häupl . President Eduardo Duhalde . Francisco Labastida Ochoa (Mexico) . Prime Minister Julia Gillard . President Mauricio Funes (El Salvador) . PRI (Mexico) . President Mikheil Saakashvili . Premier Morris Iemma (NSW Labor Party) . Freedom Union/Democratic Party (Poland) . Prime Minister Enda Kenny . Defense Minister Amir Peretz (Israel) . ANC (South Africa) . President Thabo Mbeki . Minister Francesco Rutelli (Italy) . British Labour Party (UK) . Prime Minister Raila Odinga . Minister María Emma Mejía (Colombia) . National Democratic Institute – Cambodia . President Mikhail Saakashvilli . Minister Mircea Geoană (Romania) . National Democratic Institute – Ecuador . President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada . Socialist Movement for Integration (Albania) . National Democratic Institute – Nepal . Prime Minister Ehud Barak . SPD (Germany) . National Democratic Institute – Pakistan . President Manuel Zelaya . SPÖ (Austria) . National Democratic Institute – Serbia . Mayor Eduardo Paes (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) . Labor Party (Australia) . National Democratic Institute – South Africa . Mayor Gigi Ugulava (Tbilisi, Georgia) . UNM (Georgia) . USAID – Haiti . Prime Minister Péter Medgyessy . MNR (Bolivia) . USAID -- Pakistan . Prime Minister Adrian Năstase . PRD (Dominican Republic)

Case Studies

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has the answer US: Bill Clinton

. Bill Clinton was the governor of a small state Reshaping Modern Campaigning who faced a crowded primary campaign for the Democratic Nomination for President. Greenberg, who had been polling for Clinton during his time as Governor of Arkansas, helped the famous Clinton “War Room” focus on those issues . After winning the nomination, Clinton faced a that most mattered to the average voter, the incumbent President. economy and healthcare.

He used extensive research to determine that by . Greenberg helped reshape modern campaign putting people first the campaign would be able to work while helping guide Clinton’s victory connect with voters on issues that were not being against Democratic challengers and eventually to adequately addressed. the White House. By 1993, Clinton would be in the White House, and Greenberg, his pollster, described by Eleanor Clift as the “house philosopher."

It was the first time in 12 years that a Democrat had won the Presidency. Greenberg also advised President Clinton throughout his time in the White House.

US: South Dakota

Winning for Democrats in A Red State

. Tim Johnson was a Democratic Senator from In 2002, two popular and unbeaten South Dakotan South Dakota, a very “Red” (Republican) state. politicians went head to head in what would become one of the closest Senate races in US history. Senator Tim Johnson, a first term

incumbent Democrat, faced Congressman John . He faced opposition from a well-funded Thune, a Republican hand-picked by President Republican hand-picked by the President, his Bush and Karl Rove. Republicans were determined advisors and funders. to oust this Democrat from one of the reddest states in the country.

Using benchmark surveys and listening closely to . Greenberg helped Johnson win this tough South Dakotans in focus groups throughout the contest by helping Johnson show that he was state, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner developed a “Working Hard. Making A Difference.” strategy uniquely tailored to South Dakota and the circumstances of Johnson's campaign.

Our strategy was designed to let Senator Johnson run as himself and on his record of "Working Hard. Making a Difference," at a time when many Democrats were conflicted about the image they needed to portray to voters.

South Africa

RIGHTING HISTORICAL INJUSTICE...

Greenberg, who had considerable experience in South African politics, and who as a professor at Yale had set up a Southern African Research Program, began working with the ANC as early as . Nelson Mandela and the ANC had been fighting 1993. Using groundbreaking survey research for decades to free South Africa from apartheid. conducted throughout South Africa, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner helped the ANC focus its campaign on the aspiration for “a better life for all.” This

future-oriented, inclusive and optimistic framework . But they were a liberation movement, not a allowed the ANC to presents its plans and policies political party – fighting against a disciplined, and emerge as the party ready to govern and lead. experienced machine. In 1994, Nelson Mandela would lead the ANC to victory and change the shape of South African . So ANC achieved victory by focusing not only politics forever. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on mobilizing voters, but on persuading them. continued to work with the party to ensure success in later elections as current President Thabo Mbeki took over the leadership. United Kingdom

. It had been 15 years since the Labour Party was in power. REVIVING LABOUR’S PROSPECTS…

Blair and the British Labour Party hired Stan . Three prior leaders had failed to Greenberg to conduct opinion research, develop overcome the Tories. strategy, and help craft winning campaign messages, taking "New Labour" to the voters. The electorate responded and in 1997 sent Tony Blair To regain public confidence, to Downing Street and Labour into Government . with a landslide victory. Labour had to change itself first. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner would continue to work with the Labour Party, refining the messaging and identifying the key voter segments that helped Labour retain power in historic 2001 and 2005 victories, helping Blair, Chancellor Gordon Brown, and New Labour usher in a period of unprecedented prosperity and policy innovation in Britain.

Israel

. Ehud Barak took advantage of a national mood of discontent and stagnation, and achieved victory with a message of restoring economic hope.

. Greenberg helped Barak reassure the Israeli public that he had the security credentials to lead Israel through a dangerous time.

WINNING WITH THE ECONOMY…

Stan Greenberg worked with James Carville and Bob Shrum to help Ehud Barak win an unexpected victory over Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu. Building on an extensive program of focus groups and national surveys – with separate research tracks for the country's Russian and Arab populations – Greenberg helped sharpen a message that Netanyahu's policies and leadership had left Israel with a bad economy, a stalemated peace process, and a loss of hope and momentum.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has continued to advise the Israeli Labor Party, including advising Labor leader Amir Peretz in the country's 2006 elections. In that race, Greenberg and Jeremy Rosner helped to craft the innovative strategy – one of the first Israeli campaigns to give economic and security concerns equal billing. Contact us

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Phone: +1 202 478 8300 Phone: +44 (0) 207 096 5070 Phone: +54 11 4772 0813 Fax: +1 202 478 8301 Fax: +44 (0) 207 096 5068

Stanley Greenberg Chairman & CEO

Greenberg provides strategic advice and research for leaders, companies, campaigns, and NGOs trying to advance their issues in tumultuous times.

Greenberg works with corporate clients including BP, Boeing, Monsanto, Comverse, and United HealthCare. He has also advised the Business Roundtable, and the Athens Organizing Committee, helping Greece prepare for the 2004 Olympics.

Together with Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, Greenberg conducts bi-partisan surveys for National Public Radio on the main issues of the day.

He advised the Nobel-prize winning campaign to ban land mines and directed the year-long "People on War" project for the ICRC - a consultation with people in the principal war zones of the late 20th century. He was also a strategic consultant to the Climate Center of the Natural Resources Defense Council on its multi-year campaign on global warming.

Greenberg is co-founder with James Carville of Democracy Corps - a non-profit initiative providing opinion research and strategic advice to aid progressive organizations. He also served as principal polling advisor to the Democratic Leadership Council during the formative years of change (1988-1994) for the Democratic Party.

Greenberg has been described as "the father of modern polling techniques," “the De Niro of all political consultants," and “an unrivaled international ‘guru’." Esquire Magazine named him one of the most important people of the 21st century. The New York Times writes that Greenberg "acts as a sort of people's truth squad," while The New Republic describes Stan Greenberg’s list of clients as a "who's who in center-left world leaders." The New Yorker reported Ehud Barak’s victory in 1999 as either a "stunning upset for the country's Labor Party or...just another Greenberg client taking his place as the head of state." Jeremy Rosner Executive Vice President

Dr. Jeremy D. Rosner, Executive Vice President and a partner at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner in Washington, DC, is one of the world’s leading consultants for political parties, candidates, governments, NGOs, and corporate leaders around the globe. He specializes in using sophisticated public opinion research to help global leaders design and implement winning political and communications strategies. His work as a pollster, campaign consultant, strategic adviser, and expert on international affairs focuses heavily on the transitional countries of Central Europe and Latin America, and has been cited in many publications around the world.

Since joining GQR in 1998, Rosner has directed public opinion research and provided strategic advice for dozens of leaders, governments, and campaigns in the U.S., Europe, and Latin America, as well as for major corporations and issue organizations.

Before joining the firm, Jeremy Rosner served as Special Adviser to President Clinton and Secretary of State Albright, with the responsibility of leading the administration's push to add Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic to the NATO Alliance. Rosner was responsible for designing and implementing the administration's ratification strategy and for coordinating outreach to the Congress, public, and press. The Senate voted 80-19 in favor of ratification on April 30, 1998.

From 1993-94, Rosner served as Special Assistant to President Clinton as Counselor and Senior Director for Legislative Affairs on the staff of the National Security Council where he coordinated legislative work on national security by the White House, State Department, Defense Department, and the Central Intelligence Agency. He was also President Clinton's principal foreign policy speechwriter, working with the President on events including the signing of the PLO-Israeli peace agreement in 1993, and commemoration of the 50th anniversary of D-Day in 1994.