Win Elections (Barak – Clinton and Blair)
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Global learning in a new period of uncertainty 13 March 2012 Graduate School of Political Management George Washington University Learning from the US in current period . US developments 1. Money 2. Professionalism 3. Social Media 4. Political dysfunction and polarization 5. Party models – non replicable – cultural conservatism – post modern demographic trends . Bottom line: more and less to learn from the US © 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 3 LA and Non-western models . Emerging market models . Lula and Brazil; Chile . Populist left regimes and anti-systemic politics: Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia . Social media – the street from Iran to Syria and Egypt – even Russia . Facebook – Palestinian example . Bottom line – global learning and education a growing role © 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 4 Why they hired us a partner – my experience . Methodology – field work and media . Professionalism . On top of US developments – technology and methods . Authority at the table . Clinton (Mandela – Newsweek issue) . Understand a transnational trend – post-industrial parties – US/Europe?LA . Win elections (Barak – Clinton and Blair) . Experimental design . Strategy . Message- focus . War Room © 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 5 Current pre-occupations . Social media . What’s the fight about? Defining the battle. Strategy . Message focus . War Room . Are there post-national trends/developments? – for sure 1. Politics politics of austerity in Europe 2. Liberal-market reform era giving way to Lula model and ‘better life’ 3. Global uncertainty 4. Energy and resource politics (Argentina) 5. Role of China 6. Corruption • And you win elections © 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 6 Who we are Whether you want to win your election, lead your country, or change the world, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner can help you find the answer. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner is the world's premier polling and strategic consulting firm for international political campaigns and leaders, helping candidates and parties around the world campaign, win, and govern. We bring unmatched insight and experience to campaigns around the world, based on work in over 80 countries on 6 continents, together with the latest techniques used in US elections, to help our international political clients. Who we are GQR’s experience spans all levels – presidents, parliaments, governors, mayors – all over the world. We have worked on high-stakes political campaigns in countries as diverse as Austria and Kenya, or Australia and Georgia, each with its own unique demography, history, culture, and politics. We believe in learning as much as possible about the countries we work in before we start work We know every country, every political system, and every campaign is unique. What we do Our goal is simple: to help you win. We specialize in equipping you with the tools you need to do that. More than a research firm and more than a consulting firm, we believe in using highly-strategic research to drive campaign thinking – not just who your target voters are, but what messages move them; not just what do voters care about, but what is your story. We use the research to provide actionable advice and help leaders modernize parties, crystallize strategies, and sharpen messages, making them more competitive in elections and more effective in office. What makes us different How we use research. International experience. Most political research tells you what the vote is, what the We have worked in over 80 countries on 6 continents. We important issues are, and maybe who your target voters are, understand that each country is different, and it is not enough but that’s where it stops. We view research differently. We to take the US way of doing things and apply it all over. We use research to help craft a strategy, to understand why know what it takes to get inside a different culture, a different voters think the way they do and what helps move the voters political system, and win. What’s more, we apply the you need to move, in the direction you need to move them. experiences from campaigns all over the world to one We help you find the narrative that answers the question: another, an experience no one else can match. why should voters pick you instead of someone else? Track record of success. We have a proven record of successfully conducting research, predicting results, and winning races, all over the world. Where we work • Afghanistan • Dominican Republic • Liberia • Singapore • Angola • Ecuador • Mexico • Slovakia • Argentina • Egypt • Morocco • Somalia • Australia • El Salvador • Moldova • South Africa • Austria • France • Nepal • South Korea • Azerbaijan • Georgia/Abkhazia • Nicaragua • Spain • Bahamas • Germany • Nigeria • Switzerland • Bahrain • Greece • Pakistan • Tanzania • Bangladesh • Haiti • Panama • Thailand • Belgium • Honduras • Peru • Trinidad and Tobago • Bolivia • Hungary • Philippines • Turkey • Bosnia-Herzegovina • India • Poland • Tunisia • Brazil • Indonesia • Portugal • Ukraine • Bulgaria • Iraq • Romania • United Arab Emirates • Cambodia • Ireland • Russia • United Kingdom • Canada • Israel • Saudi Arabia • Venezuela • China • Italy • Scotland • West Bank and Gaza • Colombia • Japan • Serbia • Congo • Jordan • Croatia • Kenya • Czech Republic • Kuwait We offer our clients global reach, including: • Denmark • Lebanon . Opinion research conducted in over 80 countriesland 6 continents . Full service European office, headquartered in London . World headquarters in Washington, DC, and Latin American Offices in Buenos Aires . Ability to work in diverse languages and cultures . Know more about how to translate research intolaction . Working partnerships with local research companies worldwide Selected International Political Clients . Prime Minister Tony Blair . President Traian Băsescu . ODM (Kenya) . President Nelson Mandela . Prime Minister Vlad Filat . Fine Gael (Ireland) . Chancellor Gerhard Schröder . President Carlos Roberto Flores Facusse . Israeli Labor Party . Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer . President Alejandro Toledo . l'Ulivo (Italy) . Mayor Michael Häupl . President Eduardo Duhalde . Francisco Labastida Ochoa (Mexico) . Prime Minister Julia Gillard . President Mauricio Funes (El Salvador) . PRI (Mexico) . President Mikheil Saakashvili . Premier Morris Iemma (NSW Labor Party) . Freedom Union/Democratic Party (Poland) . Prime Minister Enda Kenny . Defense Minister Amir Peretz (Israel) . ANC (South Africa) . President Thabo Mbeki . Minister Francesco Rutelli (Italy) . British Labour Party (UK) . Prime Minister Raila Odinga . Minister María Emma Mejía (Colombia) . National Democratic Institute – Cambodia . President Mikhail Saakashvilli . Minister Mircea Geoană (Romania) . National Democratic Institute – Ecuador . President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada . Socialist Movement for Integration (Albania) . National Democratic Institute – Nepal . Prime Minister Ehud Barak . SPD (Germany) . National Democratic Institute – Pakistan . President Manuel Zelaya . SPÖ (Austria) . National Democratic Institute – Serbia . Mayor Eduardo Paes (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) . Labor Party (Australia) . National Democratic Institute – South Africa . Mayor Gigi Ugulava (Tbilisi, Georgia) . UNM (Georgia) . USAID – Haiti . Prime Minister Péter Medgyessy . MNR (Bolivia) . USAID -- Pakistan . Prime Minister Adrian Năstase . PRD (Dominican Republic) Case Studies chloe Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has the answer US: Bill Clinton . Bill Clinton was the governor of a small state Reshaping Modern Campaigning who faced a crowded primary campaign for the Democratic Nomination for President. Greenberg, who had been polling for Clinton during his time as Governor of Arkansas, helped the famous Clinton “War Room” focus on those issues . After winning the nomination, Clinton faced a that most mattered to the average voter, the incumbent President. economy and healthcare. He used extensive research to determine that by . Greenberg helped reshape modern campaign putting people first the campaign would be able to work while helping guide Clinton’s victory connect with voters on issues that were not being against Democratic challengers and eventually to adequately addressed. the White House. By 1993, Clinton would be in the White House, and Greenberg, his pollster, described by Eleanor Clift as the “house philosopher." It was the first time in 12 years that a Democrat had won the Presidency. Greenberg also advised President Clinton throughout his time in the White House. US: South Dakota Winning for Democrats in A Red State . Tim Johnson was a Democratic Senator from In 2002, two popular and unbeaten South Dakotan South Dakota, a very “Red” (Republican) state. politicians went head to head in what would become one of the closest Senate races in US history. Senator Tim Johnson, a first term incumbent Democrat, faced Congressman John . He faced opposition from a well-funded Thune, a Republican hand-picked by President Republican hand-picked by the President, his Bush and Karl Rove. Republicans were determined advisors and funders. to oust this Democrat from one of the reddest states in the country. Using benchmark surveys and listening closely to . Greenberg helped Johnson win this tough South Dakotans in focus groups throughout the contest by helping Johnson show that he was state, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner developed a “Working Hard. Making A Difference.” strategy uniquely tailored to South Dakota and the circumstances of Johnson's campaign. Our strategy was designed to let Senator Johnson run as himself and on his record of "Working Hard.